Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 3–2 Hearts

Saturday 27 December 2025, 12:30 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 19 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 20,035

Hibernian McGrath 3', Campbell 45', Bowie 48'

Hearts Shankland 75', Devlin 89'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianHearts
Goals32
xG1.511.78
Expected Points1.141.57

Hibernian 28%Draw 29%Hearts 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Final score 3–2, 5%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+1%6%6%3%2%6%1%2%5%1%5%5%2%1%1%14%13%10%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTCampbell on for N. Cadden, 30'Newell on for Mulligan, 64'C. Cadden on for Boyle and Klidje on for Megwa, 84'Milne on for Kingsley and Baningime on for McEntee, 46'Kabangu on for Braga, 73'Kerjota on for Findlay, 81'Wilson on for Magnússon, 88'McGrath 3'Campbell 45'Bowie 48'Shankland 75'Devlin 89'Hearts 1.78Hibernian 1.5100.511.520153045607590HTCampbell on for N. Cadden, 30'Newell on for Mulligan, 64'C. Cadden on for Boyle and Klidje on for Megwa, 84'Milne on for Kingsley and Baningime on for McEntee, 46'Kabangu on for Braga, 73'Kerjota on for Findlay, 81'Wilson on for Magnússon, 88'McGrath 3'Campbell 45'Bowie 48'Shankland 75'Devlin 89'1.781.51HibernianHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHearts

1.51 −0.22xG1.78 +0.10
2.72 +1.22xG on target2.73 +0.68
12 −1Shots16 +1
7 +1.9Shots on target7 +1.8
1 −1.7Big chances2 −0.4
16 −8Touches in the opposition box25 −4
33% −15Possession67% +15
256 −147Passes502 +72
62% −18Pass accuracy77% 0
27% −20Field tilt73% +13
27 −8Final-third entries52 +10
8 −3Box entries13 −1
13.7 −4Passes per defensive action11.8 0
3 −2.4Corners8 +2.2
16 +4Tackles11 −8
13 +5.4Interceptions8 −0.9
33 +5Clearances26 −5
5 +1.8Saves4 +1.8
18 +7Fouls10 −2
0 −1.9Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Klidje 90+5', 0.36 xGBowie 48', 0.22 xGCampbell 63', 0.22 xGMulligan 50', 0.07 xGBoyle 29', 0.06 xGBowie 11', 0.02 xGBoyle 8', 0.01 xGBowie 43', 0.01 xGCampbell 71', 0.01 xGMcGrath 3', 0.26 xG, goalCampbell 45', 0.15 xG, goalBowie 48', 0.13 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.76 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.76 xG, 3 goals47%0.71 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.71 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 90+1', 0.30 xGMagnússon 27', 0.15 xGBaningime 90+6', 0.08 xGBraga 35', 0.06 xGKyziridis 89', 0.06 xGShankland 18', 0.05 xGKyziridis 75', 0.05 xGDevlin 46', 0.03 xGMcEntee 22', 0.02 xGShankland 52', 0.02 xGMagnússon 63', 0.02 xGKyziridis 68', 0.02 xGSteinwender 39', 0.01 xGKingsley 45+2', 0.01 xGDevlin 89', 0.81 xG, goalShankland 75', 0.07 xG, goal46%0.81 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.81 xG, 1 goal43%0.76 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.76 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals10%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHearts

0.98 6 shots, 3 goalsOpen play1.59 11 shots, 1 goal
0.52 5 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.01 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
3 min (3%) · Hibernian 0.26, Hearts 0.00 xG
Hibernian ahead
95 min (97%) · Hibernian 1.25, Hearts 1.78 xG

Line-ups

127541519202217910SallingerMegwaO'HoraHanleyIredaleN. CaddenMulliganBarlaserMcGrathBowieBoyleYellow cardGoalGoal84'30'64'84'Hibernian 5-3-2David Gray2515419331148922109SchwolowSteinwenderHalkettFindlayKingsleyMcEnteeDevlinKyziridisMagnússonBragaShanklandGoalGoal81'46'46'88'73'Hearts 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes

Hibernian substitutes

  • 30' Campbell for N. Cadden · goal 45'
  • 64' Newell for Mulligan
  • 84' C. Cadden for Boyle
  • 84' Klidje for Megwa

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Milne for Kingsley
  • 46' Baningime for McEntee
  • 73' Kabangu for Braga
  • 81' Kerjota for Findlay
  • 88' Wilson for Magnússon

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0100.0562
MegwaRWB840.000.0000.0346
O'HoraCB900.000.0100.0428
HanleyCB900.000.0000.0107
IredaleCB900.000.0000.01211
N. CaddenLWB3010.000.0710.0710
Mulligan CM6410.070.0420.0424
BarlaserCM900.000.0210.0551
McGrathCM90110.260.0620.1937
BowieST9010.370.070−0.0537
BoyleST840.080.2530.1031
CampbellMF6010.370.0210.0136
NewellMF260.000.000−0.0114
C. CaddenMF60.000.0000.0110
KlidjeFW60.360.0000.0001

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0540
SteinwenderRB900.010.0200.12137
HalkettCB900.000.0610.13921
FindlayCB810.000.0210.0636
KingsleyLB460.010.1920.1251
McEnteeDM460.020.0600.0330
DevlinDM9010.850.020−0.0115
KyziridisRW9010.130.5740.63140
MagnússonAM880.170.0110.0120
BragaLW730.060.0300.0232
ShanklandST9010.450.0120.0160
MilneDF440.000.0500.0560
BaningimeMF440.080.0510.0344
KabanguFW170.000.000−0.0400
KerjotaFW90.000.0100.0200
WilsonFW20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Iredale and N. Cadden: 3 passesO'Hora and Barlaser: 3 passesN. Cadden and McGrath: 3 passesN. Cadden and Barlaser: 4 passesMulligan and Boyle: 4 passesHanley and Barlaser: 6 passesMegwa and O'Hora: 7 passesO'Hora and Hanley: 7 passesSallinger: 4 completed passesMegwa: 5 completed passesIredale: 5 completed passesO'Hora: 14 completed passesHanley: 9 completed passesN. Cadden: 7 completed passesMcGrath: 3 completed passesBarlaser: 10 completed passesMulligan: 4 completed passesBoyle: 3 completed passesBowie: 1 completed passes127155419172220109SallingerMegwaIredaleO'HoraHanleyN. CaddenMcGrathBarlaserMulliganBoyleBowieStarters until 30' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Schwolow and Findlay: 3 passesHalkett and Kyziridis: 3 passesKingsley and McEntee: 3 passesKingsley and Magnússon: 3 passesMcEntee and Kyziridis: 3 passesMcEntee and Shankland: 3 passesSchwolow and Steinwender: 4 passesSchwolow and Halkett: 4 passesSteinwender and Kyziridis: 4 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 4 passesKyziridis and Braga: 4 passesMagnússon and Braga: 4 passesHalkett and McEntee: 5 passesHalkett and Devlin: 6 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 6 passesKingsley and Braga: 6 passesSteinwender and McEntee: 7 passesBraga and Shankland: 7 passesKingsley and Devlin: 8 passesKingsley and Shankland: 8 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 9 passesSteinwender and Halkett: 11 passesFindlay and Devlin: 11 passesSteinwender and Devlin: 12 passesFindlay and Halkett: 12 passesSchwolow: 10 completed passesSteinwender: 21 completed passesFindlay: 20 completed passesHalkett: 23 completed passesKingsley: 24 completed passesDevlin: 26 completed passesMcEntee: 12 completed passesKyziridis: 12 completed passesMagnússon: 8 completed passesBraga: 9 completed passesShankland: 11 completed passes2515194314318922109SchwolowSteinwenderFindlayHalkettKingsleyDevlinMcEnteeKyziridisMagnússonBragaShanklandStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
O'HoraMegwa10
HanleyO'Hora8
SallingerBowie6
O'HoraBarlaser5
CampbellBowie5

Hearts

FromToPasses
DevlinFindlay15
HalkettSteinwender14
HalkettFindlay13
SteinwenderHalkett11
DevlinSteinwender10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

4+1.05−0.715+1.39+1.76+2.49+3.88+1.712+5.25−1.44−2.04−0.58+4.11−2.110+6.44−0.34+0.17+3.62−0.64+1.87+3.15+2.76+4.32+1.010.04+1.70−0.61+0.31+0.61+0.50−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Hearts

2−2.07+0.63−3.13−0.68+0.87−0.89+2.08−1.37+0.15−0.86+0.15−0.56+1.44+1.24−0.23−1.62−0.80−2.32+0.30−1.72−1.30−1.10−0.61+0.81+0.510.07−4.12−3.44−3.52−3.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.010.03−0.010.020.010.010.030.010.040.030.020.10−0.01−0.06−0.040.24LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.040.040.010.010.020.040.080.050.010.050.020.020.030.070.01−0.010.010.060.110.020.010.230.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHibernian1.49 → 1.49Hearts1.51 → 1.50Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14 → 1.15Hearts1.08 → 1.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six91%95%+4
Hearts
Title16%11%−5
Celtic
Title81%84%+3
Falkirk
Top six31%30%−1
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (27 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.431.15
Win43%30%
Expected Points1.561.17
Clean sheet32%24%

Hibernian 43%Draw 27%Hearts 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawHearts win
Hibernian
Top six91%95%90%87%
Hearts
Title16%11%14%23%
Celtic
Title81%84%83%74%
Falkirk
Top six31%30%32%33%
11th2%2%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. D1–120 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.26–0.82
  2. L0–115 DecRangers (A)xG 0.55–1.84
  3. W3–06 DecFalkirk (H)xG 2.02–0.49
  4. L1–230 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.65–1.33
  5. L0–225 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.77–2.14
  6. W2–022 NovDundee FC (H)xG 2.26–0.56

Hearts

  1. W2–121 DecRangers (H)xG 1.70–2.33
  2. W2–013 DecFalkirk (A)xG 1.51–1.03
  3. W2–17 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.52–1.87
  4. D1–13 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.19–1.80
  5. D0–029 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.41–0.58
  6. L0–123 NovAberdeen (A)xG 2.30–0.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position5th1st
Played1818
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠7–⁠512–⁠5–⁠1
Points25 (1.39 per game)41 (2.28 per game)
Expected Points per game1.791.81
Goals28–⁠2036–⁠14
xG per game1.73–⁠1.141.68–⁠0.96
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 2.25–⁠0.872.33, 1.70–⁠1.05
Away: points, xG per game1.30, 1.31–⁠1.362.22, 1.65–⁠0.87
ManagerDavid Gray (58)Derek McInnes (18)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHibernian1.49, 4thHearts1.51, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14, 4thHearts1.08, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian attack: 1.49Hearts attack: 1.511.511.49HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHibernian defence: 1.14Hearts defence: 1.081.141.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%−4%+11%−15%
Counter-attacks+95%+4%+13%−60%
Set pieces+24%−48%+56%−25%
Penalties+100%−33%average−100%
Headers+11%−28%+46%−14%
Left side+30%+16%+12%−31%
Centre+19%−25%+45%−33%
Right side+1%−25%−7%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+30%+5%Centre+19%−33%Right side+1%−31%Open play−1%−15%Counter-attacks+95%−60%Set pieces+24%−25%Headers+11%−14%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+12%−25%Centre+45%−25%Right side−7%+16%Open play+11%−4%Counter-attacks+13%+4%Set pieces+56%−48%Headers+46%−28%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.73xG1.68
1.14xG against0.96
48%Possession52%
13.0Shots14.6
11.1Shots against9.2
5.1Shots on target5.2
2.7Big chances2.4
24.2Touches in the opposition box29.1
403Passes430
80%Pass accuracy76%
5.4Corners5.8
47%Field tilt60%
35.5Final-third entries42.4
10.7Box entries13.6
17.9Passes per defensive action11.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.421.19
Ahead281.991.14
Behind201.991.05

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.300.76
Ahead362.051.20
Behind102.050.96

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.092–2
16–300.260.237–5
31–450.290.276–6
46–600.420.146–2
61–750.220.101–2
76–900.300.326–3

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.133–1
16–300.210.105–4
31–450.260.207–3
46–600.360.118–2
61–750.200.146–1
76–900.470.287–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 14Smith 4Bushiri 12O'Hora 11Mitchell 1Hanley 13Iredale 15Obita 2Cadden 13Mulligan 4Megwa 1Mulligan 13Barlaser 9McGrath 5Chaiwa 5Cadden 11Obita 6McGrath 1McGrath 7Boyle 4Barlaser 4Boyle 9Klidje 5Youan 1Bowie 16Hoilett 3McGrath 23-4-1-2 in 8 of 18 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (8), 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 14Clark 4McEntee 10Steinwender 4Kent 3Halkett 14Steinwender 2Kent 2Findlay 17Shankland 1Kingsley 8Milne 7Devlin 2Milne 6Braga 4Kyziridis 4Baningime 7McEntee 5Magnússon 3Devlin 16Spittal 4Kyziridis 10Braga 3Milne 3Shankland 16Kaboré 4Findlay 1Braga 8Magnússon 3McEntee 14-4-2 in 10 of 18 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69
26 December 2024Hearts1–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.93
27 October 2024Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.97–1.17
28 February 2024Hearts1–1HibernianxG 1.70–2.66
27 December 2023Hibernian0–1HeartsxG 1.85–1.30

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Hearts won 4, and 7 were drawn. Goals 12–16 and xG 1.32–1.06 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje5569210.680.05
Boyle131,075400.520.09
Bowie161,337730.340.15
McGrath151,214520.270.19

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga151,325820.520.15
Kyziridis141,276350.140.38
Shankland171,510910.410.09
Magnússon6575100.280.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.