Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 2–1 Hearts

Sunday 2 March 2025, 12:30 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 19,873

Hibernian Boyle 6', Iredale 74'

Hearts Grant 9'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianHearts
Goals21
xG0.610.69
Expected Points1.211.36

Hibernian 26%Draw 43%Hearts 31%

Most likely score 0–0, 27%. Final score 2–1, 4%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+19%6%1%16%14%4%5%4%1%27%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTMiller on for O'Hora, 45'Gayle on for Bowie and Levitt on for Moriah-Welsh, 69'Obita on for N. Cadden and Hoilett on for Boyle, 85'Nieuwenhof on for Grant and Kartum on for Wilson, 69'Drammeh on for Baningime and Vargas on for Spittal, 82'Boyle 6'Iredale 74'Grant 9'Hearts 0.69Hibernian 0.6100.250.50.750153045607590HTMiller on for O'Hora, 45'Gayle on for Bowie and Levitt on for Moriah-Welsh, 69'Obita on for N. Cadden and Hoilett on for Boyle, 85'Nieuwenhof on for Grant and Kartum on for Wilson, 69'Drammeh on for Baningime and Vargas on for Spittal, 82'Boyle 6'Iredale 74'Grant 9'0.690.61HibernianHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHearts

0.61 −0.99xG0.69 −0.69
0.61 −0.97xG on target0.40 −0.99
11 −1Shots10 −3
3 −1.0Shots on target2 −2.4
2 −0.5Big chances1 −1.3
22 0Touches in the opposition box14 −12
46% 0Possession54% 0
339 +6Passes396 −46
73% 0Pass accuracy75% −2
51% +2Field tilt49% −8
25 −9Final-third entries20 −22
10 +0.4Box entries5 −7.1
19.4 +4Passes per defensive action14.3 +1
4 −1.9Corners6 −0.4
8 −6Tackles14 −4
9 +1.3Interceptions9 +0.2
34 +1Clearances33 +5
1 −1.8Saves1 −1.6
8 −3Fouls9 −2
2 +0.1Offsides3 +1.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Bushiri 81', 0.13 xGBowie 64', 0.12 xGBoyle 67', 0.06 xGC. Cadden 63', 0.04 xGCampbell 34', 0.03 xGN. Cadden 34', 0.02 xGTriantis 45+3', 0.02 xGMoriah-Welsh 61', 0.02 xGCampbell 58', 0.01 xGBoyle 6', 0.13 xG, goalIredale 74', 0.03 xG, goal43%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal21%0.13 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals20%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals13%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 1 goal3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Kabangu 52', 0.15 xGShankland 31', 0.14 xGMcCart 14', 0.12 xGPenrice 50', 0.08 xGShankland 4', 0.04 xGWilson 45', 0.03 xGSpittal 16', 0.02 xGNieuwenhof 90+2', 0.02 xGSpittal 22', 0.01 xGGrant 9', 0.08 xG, goal37%0.26 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals44%0.31 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.31 xG, 1 goal6%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals13%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHearts

0.36 6 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.33 6 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.15 1 shot, 0 goals
0.26 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.21 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
74 min (78%) · Hibernian 0.48, Hearts 0.59 xG
Hibernian ahead
21 min (22%) · Hibernian 0.13, Hearts 0.10 xG

Line-ups

135331512262219103220SmithO'HoraBushiriIredaleC. CaddenTriantisMoriah-WelshN. CaddenBoyleCampbellBowieGoalGoalYellow card45'69'85'85'69'Hibernian 3-4-3David Gray182153029761692119GordonTaylorSteinwenderMcCartPenriceGrantBaningimeSpittalShanklandWilsonKabanguGoalYellow card69'82'82'69'Hearts 4-3-1-2Neil Critchley

Hibernian substitutes

  • 45' Miller for O'Hora
  • 69' Levitt for Moriah-Welsh
  • 69' Gayle for Bowie
  • 85' Obita for N. Cadden
  • 85' Hoilett for Boyle

Hearts substitutes

  • 69' Nieuwenhof for Grant
  • 69' Kartum for Wilson
  • 82' Vargas for Spittal
  • 82' Drammeh for Baningime

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SmithGK900.000.0000.0453
O'HoraCB450.000.0000.0227
BushiriCB900.130.0000.0119
IredaleCB90110.030.0510.09711
C. CaddenRWB900.040.0000.0333
TriantisCM900.020.4220.2076
Moriah-WelshCM690.020.0930.0431
N. CaddenLWB850.020.0620.1782
Boyle RW8510.190.0200.1811
CampbellST900.040.0200.0433
BowieLW690.120.0300.0202
MillerDF450.000.0000.0133
LevittMF210.000.000−0.0120
GayleFW210.000.020−0.0601
ObitaDF50.000.0000.0000
HoilettFW50.000.0200.0210

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0111
TaylorRB900.000.0000.0335
SteinwenderCB900.000.0000.04516
McCartCB900.120.0100.0667
PenriceLB900.080.0810.1067
GrantCM6910.080.0100.0024
BaningimeCM820.000.0010.0106
SpittalCM820.020.0610.1031
Shankland AM900.180.0000.0223
WilsonST690.030.1310.0134
KabanguST900.150.000−0.0302
NieuwenhofMF210.020.000−0.0114
KartumMF210.000.0000.0011
VargasMF80.000.0000.0000
DrammehFW80.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Iredale and Triantis: 3 passesIredale and Campbell: 3 passesC. Cadden and Campbell: 3 passesMoriah-Welsh and N. Cadden: 3 passesN. Cadden and Bowie: 3 passesO'Hora and Triantis: 4 passesC. Cadden and Triantis: 4 passesTriantis and N. Cadden: 5 passesIredale and N. Cadden: 6 passesBushiri and Moriah-Welsh: 7 passesIredale and Bushiri: 8 passesSmith and Bushiri: 10 passesC. Cadden and Moriah-Welsh: 10 passesO'Hora and C. Cadden: 13 passesSmith and O'Hora: 15 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 18 passesSmith: 16 completed passesIredale: 14 completed passesBushiri: 25 completed passesO'Hora: 28 completed passesC. Cadden: 17 completed passesTriantis: 11 completed passesMoriah-Welsh: 14 completed passesN. Cadden: 9 completed passesCampbell: 7 completed passesBoyle: 3 completed passesBowie: 5 completed passes131533512262219321020SmithIredaleBushiriO'HoraC. CaddenTriantisMoriah-WelshN. CaddenCampbellBoyleBowieStarters until 45' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Wilson: 3 passesSteinwender and Spittal: 3 passesSteinwender and Shankland: 3 passesMcCart and Grant: 3 passesPenrice and Wilson: 3 passesShankland and Wilson: 3 passesMcCart and Shankland: 4 passesPenrice and Baningime: 4 passesSpittal and Shankland: 4 passesSpittal and Kabangu: 4 passesGordon and McCart: 5 passesGrant and Wilson: 5 passesTaylor and Wilson: 6 passesSteinwender and Baningime: 6 passesMcCart and Penrice: 6 passesMcCart and Baningime: 6 passesPenrice and Shankland: 6 passesBaningime and Spittal: 6 passesGordon and Steinwender: 8 passesBaningime and Grant: 11 passesMcCart and Spittal: 12 passesTaylor and Steinwender: 13 passesTaylor and Grant: 13 passesSteinwender and Grant: 17 passesPenrice and Spittal: 22 passesSteinwender and McCart: 40 passesGordon: 14 completed passesTaylor: 20 completed passesSteinwender: 49 completed passesMcCart: 40 completed passesPenrice: 22 completed passesBaningime: 19 completed passesGrant: 26 completed passesSpittal: 28 completed passesShankland: 8 completed passesKabangu: 3 completed passesWilson: 13 completed passes182153029671691921GordonTaylorSteinwenderMcCartPenriceBaningimeGrantSpittalShanklandKabanguWilsonStarters until 69' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriO'Hora13
O'HoraSmith9
O'HoraC. Cadden9
TriantisN. Cadden8
BushiriIredale7

Hearts

FromToPasses
SteinwenderMcCart26
McCartSteinwender22
PenriceSpittal14
SpittalPenrice10
SteinwenderGrant9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

7+2.66−0.816−0.22−3.09+2.24−1.57+0.83−2.23−1.12−1.03−2.13−1.83−0.66+2.41−1.35+1.84−0.21−1.01−0.40−1.12+0.53+0.81+0.40−0.40−0.70−0.42+1.64−3.92−4.62−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Hearts

5+1.110+4.716+2.56−0.63−1.65−1.94−2.58+2.25−2.29+1.57+1.23−1.41−2.25−0.66−1.42−2.82−1.430.05+1.23−1.62−0.34+2.21−0.220.01−1.80−0.60−0.41+0.31+0.610.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.020.020.010.040.010.030.010.03−0.010.020.090.020.010.020.01−0.010.020.030.10−0.060.040.150.19LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.030.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.020.01−0.01−0.010.04−0.060.010.060.070.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.43 → 1.42Hearts1.42 → 1.40Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.23 → 1.23Hearts1.25 → 1.25

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six98%>99%+2
Hearts
Top six57%44%−13
Motherwell
Top six32%38%+6
11th2%2%0
St. Mirren
Top six12%14%+2
11th5%4%−1

From the forecast before the match (2 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.571.16
Win46%28%
Expected Points1.651.09
Clean sheet31%21%

Hibernian 46%Draw 26%Hearts 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%3%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawHearts win
Hibernian
Top six98%>99%98%95%
Hearts
Top six57%44%57%80%
Motherwell
Top six32%38%32%22%
11th2%2%2%2%
St. Mirren
Top six12%14%12%8%
11th5%4%5%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. W3–126 FebDundee United (A)xG 1.53–0.71
  2. W2–122 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.67–1.78
  3. D0–016 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.37–0.70
  4. W2–01 FebAberdeen (H)xG 1.60–0.48
  5. D1–125 JanRoss County (A)xG 0.69–1.78
  6. W3–111 JanMotherwell (H)xG 2.22–0.22

Hearts

  1. W3–126 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.34–1.17
  2. W2–123 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.18–2.02
  3. L1–316 FebRangers (H)xG 2.61–1.58
  4. W6–01 FebDundee FC (A)xG 3.06–0.37
  5. W3–225 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 2.51–1.05
  6. D0–012 JanAberdeen (A)xG 1.54–1.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position4th7th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠10–⁠810–⁠6–⁠12
Points40 (1.43 per game)36 (1.29 per game)
Expected Points per game1.511.36
Goals42–⁠3940–⁠38
xG per game1.60–⁠1.371.38–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game1.64, 1.79–⁠1.211.50, 1.45–⁠1.29
Away: points, xG per game1.21, 1.42–⁠1.531.07, 1.30–⁠1.53
ManagerDavid Gray (30)Neil Critchley (19)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.43, 3rdHearts1.42, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.23, 3rdHearts1.25, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian attack: 1.43Hearts attack: 1.421.431.42HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarHibernian defence: 1.23Hearts defence: 1.251.251.23

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−6%−15%average−10%
Counter-attacks+10%+41%+3%−4%
Set pieces+37%average+12%+7%
Penalties+59%+14%−77%+37%
Headers+20%−6%−3%+23%
Left side+4%−24%+17%−2%
Centre+14%+3%−2%−2%
Right side−2%−6%+3%−15%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+4%−15%Centre+14%−2%Right side−2%−2%Open play−6%−10%Counter-attacks+10%−4%Set pieces+37%+7%Headers+20%+23%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+17%−6%Centre−2%+3%Right side+3%−24%Open playaverage−15%Counter-attacks+3%+41%Set pieces+12%averageHeaders−3%−6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.60xG1.38
1.37xG against1.41
46%Possession54%
12.3Shots13.1
11.5Shots against11.0
4.0Shots on target4.4
2.5Big chances2.3
22.3Touches in the opposition box25.5
333Passes442
72%Pass accuracy76%
5.9Corners6.4
48%Field tilt58%
33.9Final-third entries41.8
9.6Box entries12.1
15.6Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.531.26
Ahead271.551.31
Behind231.781.63

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.351.55
Ahead251.441.20
Behind261.371.40

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.233–7
16–300.300.248–5
31–450.270.1510–6
46–600.200.184–4
61–750.350.196–2
76–900.340.3911–15

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.175–4
16–300.170.195–4
31–450.160.245–6
46–600.220.318–8
61–750.210.188–7
76–900.410.339–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSmith 15Bursik 13Iredale 15Boyle 5Obita 4Bushiri 16Ekpiteta 12O'Hora 25Miller 14C. Cadden 14Triantis 21Kwon 5Moriah-Welsh 2Newell 15Obita 10Levitt 3N. Cadden 14Kwon 7Triantis 3Campbell 13Hoilett 4Boyle 3Kukharevych 13Campbell 1Vente 1Boyle 11Hoilett 8Gayle 73-4-1-2 in 13 of 28 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (13), 4-2-3-1 (7), 4-3-3 (5), 4-4-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 26Clark 2Oyegoke 11Forrester 10Taylor 5Kent 12Halkett 10Steinwender 3Rowles 20McCart 6Kingsley 2Penrice 22Kingsley 3Grant 1Devlin 17Baningime 11Penrice 1Boateng 13Grant 7Spittal 2Drammeh 9Forrest 5Vargas 3Shankland 11Grant 5Boyce 3Spittal 18Forrest 3Vargas 2Shankland 11Wilson 9Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 14 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
26 December 2024Hearts1–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.93
27 October 2024Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.97–1.17
28 February 2024Hearts1–1HibernianxG 1.70–2.66
27 December 2023Hibernian0–1HeartsxG 1.85–1.30
7 October 2023Hearts2–2HibernianxG 1.25–1.32
27 May 2023Hearts1–1HibernianxG 0.11–1.50

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 2, Hearts won 3, and 7 were drawn. Goals 10–14 and xG 1.46–1.11 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hoilett121,012310.340.27
Kukharevych141,076400.550.02
N. Cadden181,467540.240.28
Boyle191,760740.370.11

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Vargas121,039420.370.13
Drammeh10859300.440.02
Shankland221,950460.280.16
Wilson11985510.250.17

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.