Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 1–0 Hibernian

Tuesday 10 February 2026, 20:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 26 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,766

Hearts Magnússon 88'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsHibernian
Goals10
xG0.660.38
Expected Points1.530.99

Hearts 35%Draw 48%Hibernian 17%

Most likely score 0–0, 36%. Final score 1–0, 23%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+14%2%23%11%1%7%3%1%36%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTMagnússon on for Baningime and Altena on for Chesnokov, 76'Ageu on for Kaboré and Mato on for Kyziridis, 87'McCart on for Braga, 90+3'McGrath on for Chaiwa and Suto on for Scarlett, 60'Youan on for Boyle, 73'O'Hora on for Garananga, 79'Magnússon 88'Hearts 0.66Hibernian 0.3800.250.50.750153045607590HTMagnússon on for Baningime and Altena on for Chesnokov, 76'Ageu on for Kaboré and Mato on for Kyziridis, 87'McCart on for Braga, 90+3'McGrath on for Chaiwa and Suto on for Scarlett, 60'Youan on for Boyle, 73'O'Hora on for Garananga, 79'Magnússon 88'0.660.38HeartsHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

0.66 −1.06xG0.38 −1.36
0.87 −1.10xG on target0.12 −1.47
11 −3Shots5 −9
2 −3.3Shots on target1 −4.2
2 −0.7Big chances0 −2.5
20 −8Touches in the opposition box17 −8
52% −1Possession48% 0
332 −90Passes300 −102
75% −1Pass accuracy71% −8
68% +9Field tilt32% −16
33 −8Final-third entries15 −22
10 −3Box entries5 −7
11.1 −1Passes per defensive action12.1 −5
4 −1.4Corners8 +2.8
17 −1Tackles16 +4
9 +0.4Interceptions6 −2.4
55 +23Clearances31 +2
1 −1.4Saves1 −1.9
10 −1Fouls18 +7
0 −1.3Offsides0 −1.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Chesnokov 41', 0.19 xGKaboré 41', 0.08 xGBraga 9', 0.07 xGKyziridis 12', 0.07 xGFindlay 55', 0.05 xGKaboré 41', 0.03 xGKaboré 4', 0.02 xGMilne 53', 0.01 xGChesnokov 55', 0.01 xGLeonard 64', 0.01 xGMagnússon 88', 0.11 xG, goal29%0.19 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.19 xG, 0 goals58%0.38 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.38 xG, 1 goal3%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals8%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 69', 0.17 xGSuto 63', 0.13 xGCadden 10', 0.03 xGBoyle 45', 0.03 xGChaiwa 18', 0.02 xG32%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals46%0.17 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals16%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals5%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.41 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.23 3 shots, 0 goals
0.25 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.14 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
88 min (95%) · Hearts 0.66, Hibernian 0.38 xG
Hearts ahead
5 min (5%) · Hearts 0.00, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

25312191849699108911SchwolowMcEnteeKentFindlayMilneLeonardBaningimeChesnokovBragaKyziridisKaboré76'76'90+3'87'87'Hearts 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes142331525282219104414SallingerGaranangaBushiriIredalePasslackAndrewsBarlaserCaddenBoyleScarlettChaiwaYellow cardYellow cardYellow card79'73'60'60'Hibernian 3-4-3David Gray

Hearts substitutes

  • 76' Altena for Chesnokov
  • 76' Magnússon for Baningime · goal 88'
  • 87' Ageu for Kaboré
  • 87' Mato for Kyziridis
  • 90+3' McCart for Braga

Hibernian substitutes

  • 60' McGrath for Chaiwa
  • 60' Suto for Scarlett
  • 73' Youan for Boyle
  • 79' O'Hora for Garananga

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0111
McEnteeRB900.000.0510.10312
KentCB900.000.0000.01115
FindlayCB900.050.0100.06410
MilneLB9010.010.1910.2698
LeonardDM900.010.0800.07711
BaningimeDM760.000.0100.0044
ChesnokovRW760.200.0100.0435
BragaAM900.070.0410.0263
KyziridisLW870.070.0430.0242
KaboréST870.140.0310.0717
AltenaDF140.000.0100.0221
MagnússonMF1410.110.0000.0002
AgeuMF30.000.000––0
MatoFW30.000.000––0
McCartDF00.000.0000.0001

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0440
Garananga CB790.000.0000.0234
BushiriCB900.000.0000.00011
IredaleCB900.000.0100.04410
PasslackRWB900.000.0400.0629
AndrewsCM900.000.0100.0022
BarlaserCM900.000.0700.0224
CaddenLWB900.030.4810.2256
BoyleRW730.210.0420.0121
Scarlett ST600.000.0000.0110
Chaiwa LW600.020.0210.0313
McGrathMF300.000.0810.0113
SutoFW300.130.0000.0110
YouanFW170.000.0000.0003
O'HoraDF110.000.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Kent and Baningime: 4 passesBaningime and Chesnokov: 4 passesKyziridis and Kaboré: 4 passesSchwolow and Kent: 5 passesMilne and Baningime: 5 passesBaningime and Kyziridis: 5 passesLeonard and Braga: 5 passesFindlay and Baningime: 6 passesFindlay and Kyziridis: 6 passesMilne and Braga: 6 passesChesnokov and Braga: 6 passesBraga and Kaboré: 6 passesMcEntee and Chesnokov: 7 passesBaningime and Braga: 7 passesMcEntee and Kent: 8 passesMcEntee and Braga: 8 passesLeonard and Kyziridis: 8 passesLeonard and Kaboré: 8 passesBraga and Kyziridis: 8 passesKent and Leonard: 9 passesMcEntee and Leonard: 11 passesKent and Findlay: 13 passesBaningime and Leonard: 13 passesFindlay and Leonard: 14 passesMilne and Kyziridis: 15 passesFindlay and Milne: 16 passesSchwolow: 8 completed passesMcEntee: 23 completed passesKent: 27 completed passesFindlay: 31 completed passesMilne: 28 completed passesBaningime: 29 completed passesLeonard: 39 completed passesChesnokov: 13 completed passesBraga: 20 completed passesKyziridis: 21 completed passesKaboré: 10 completed passes25312191864999108911SchwolowMcEnteeKentFindlayMilneBaningimeLeonardChesnokovBragaKyziridisKaboréStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Hibernian

Garananga and Barlaser: 3 passesGarananga and Boyle: 3 passesCadden and Boyle: 3 passesAndrews and Chaiwa: 3 passesSallinger and Garananga: 4 passesSallinger and Barlaser: 4 passesIredale and Scarlett: 4 passesBushiri and Garananga: 4 passesBushiri and Andrews: 4 passesPasslack and Andrews: 4 passesBoyle and Chaiwa: 4 passesCadden and Barlaser: 5 passesCadden and Scarlett: 5 passesSallinger and Passlack: 6 passesIredale and Barlaser: 9 passesGarananga and Passlack: 9 passesBarlaser and Andrews: 9 passesSallinger and Iredale: 11 passesIredale and Bushiri: 14 passesIredale and Cadden: 16 passesSallinger: 21 completed passesIredale: 30 completed passesBushiri: 15 completed passesGarananga: 14 completed passesPasslack: 13 completed passesCadden: 17 completed passesBarlaser: 20 completed passesAndrews: 15 completed passesBoyle: 6 completed passesChaiwa: 4 completed passesScarlett: 4 completed passes115334225192228101444SallingerIredaleBushiriGaranangaPasslackCaddenBarlaserAndrewsBoyleChaiwaScarlettStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
FindlayMilne9
MilneFindlay9
KentFindlay8
MilneKyziridis8
KyziridisMilne8

Hibernian

FromToPasses
CaddenIredale13
IredaleCadden12
IredaleSallinger11
BushiriIredale9
SallingerIredale7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

5+0.612+5.519+6.811+4.95+1.35−2.210+1.86−0.88−0.370.010+4.36+0.14−1.26−0.32−3.250.01−3.63+0.23−0.82−2.21−1.61−1.23+1.61−0.46+3.21−0.20−0.40−0.51+0.60−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Hibernian

8+4.86−0.211−3.36−1.58+4.27+1.610+2.66−0.14−1.87+1.95+0.230.02−2.33−1.55+1.33−0.41−1.51−1.540.02−0.50−1.82+0.50−1.11−1.21+0.41+0.22+1.40−0.61+0.22−5.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.030.030.040.010.010.010.060.020.050.010.030.03−0.01−0.030.080.070.030.18LessMore

Hibernian

0.030.010.020.020.010.030.010.030.020.010.040.020.050.03−0.010.010.010.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackHearts1.51 → 1.50Hibernian1.50 → 1.47Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.07 → 1.06Hibernian1.14 → 1.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title24%32%+8
Hibernian
Top six>99%99%−1
Celtic
Title43%38%−5
Rangers
Title32%30%−2

From the forecast before the match (10 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.531.09
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.671.06
Clean sheet34%22%

Hearts 47%Draw 27%Hibernian 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawHibernian win
Hearts
Title24%32%20%14%
Hibernian
Top six>99%99%>99%>99%
Celtic
Title43%38%45%50%
Rangers
Title32%30%34%35%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–13 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.23–2.31
  2. W3–031 JanDundee United (A)xG 4.39–0.18
  3. D2–225 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.66–1.35
  4. W2–014 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.18–0.98
  5. W1–011 JanDundee FC (A)xG 0.36–1.34
  6. W1–03 JanLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.54

Hibernian

  1. W3–24 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.57–1.73
  2. D0–01 FebRangers (H)xG 1.88–0.58
  3. L1–424 JanFalkirk (A)xG 0.73–3.64
  4. D1–110 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.31–1.03
  5. W3–13 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 2.78–0.44
  6. W2–030 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.64–0.57

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position1st5th
Played2525
Won, drawn, lost16–⁠6–⁠310–⁠9–⁠6
Points54 (2.16 per game)39 (1.56 per game)
Expected Points per game1.771.77
Goals47–⁠2041–⁠30
xG per game1.72–⁠1.021.74–⁠1.21
Home: points, xG per game2.33, 1.78–⁠1.021.77, 2.07–⁠0.98
Away: points, xG per game2.00, 1.66–⁠1.011.33, 1.38–⁠1.47
ManagerDerek McInnes (25)David Gray (65)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackHearts1.51, 3rdHibernian1.50, 4thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.07, 3rdHibernian1.14, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.51Hibernian attack: 1.501.511.50HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.07Hibernian defence: 1.141.141.07

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+22%−16%−5%+1%
Counter-attacks+3%−50%+109%−18%
Set pieces+34%−22%+29%−35%
Penalties+9%−100%+91%−45%
Headers+29%−1%+19%−27%
Left side+19%−23%+19%+11%
Centre+34%−30%+19%−17%
Right side+3%−1%+11%−22%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+19%−22%Centre+34%−17%Right side+3%+11%Open play+22%+1%Counter-attacks+3%−18%Set pieces+34%−35%Headers+29%−27%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+19%−1%Centre+19%−30%Right side+11%−23%Open play−5%−16%Counter-attacks+109%−50%Set pieces+29%−22%Headers+19%−1%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.72xG1.74
1.02xG against1.21
53%Possession48%
14.2Shots13.7
10.0Shots against11.6
5.3Shots on target5.2
2.7Big chances2.5
27.9Touches in the opposition box25.2
422Passes402
76%Pass accuracy79%
5.4Corners5.2
59%Field tilt48%
41.2Final-third entries36.8
13.0Box entries11.6
11.8Passes per defensive action16.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.390.95
Ahead352.021.15
Behind131.980.87

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.551.19
Ahead301.861.17
Behind181.991.33

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.144–3
16–300.220.098–4
31–450.300.177–4
46–600.330.1510–3
61–750.200.197–2
76–900.470.2811–4

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.094–2
16–300.230.247–6
31–450.280.268–7
46–600.400.139–4
61–750.260.123–4
76–900.340.3710–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 19Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 10Steinwender 8Altena 3Halkett 21Steinwender 2Kent 2Findlay 24Shankland 1Milne 11Kingsley 9McCart 2Milne 7Kyziridis 5Braga 4Baningime 10McEntee 7Magnússon 5Devlin 20Spittal 4Kyziridis 16Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 20Kaboré 6Findlay 1Braga 14Magnússon 4McEntee 14-4-2 in 11 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 21Smith 4Bushiri 15O'Hora 15Garananga 1Hanley 19Iredale 22Obita 2Cadden 13Megwa 7Mulligan 4Mulligan 16Newell 1Barlaser 16Chaiwa 7Jamie McGrath 6Cadden 12Obita 9Jamie McGrath 4Jamie McGrath 8Boyle 5Barlaser 4Boyle 13Klidje 7Scarlett 1Bowie 19Youan 5Hoilett 33-4-1-2 in 13 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (13), 3-1-4-2 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69
26 December 2024Hearts1–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.93
27 October 2024Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.97–1.17
28 February 2024Hearts1–1HibernianxG 1.70–2.66

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 4, Hibernian won 4, and 7 were drawn. Goals 18–15 and xG 1.11–1.34 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré8663410.690.10
Braga221,8381020.480.12
Kyziridis211,804460.240.33
Shankland211,8341120.400.12

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6644410.650.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Boyle181,429500.460.09
Campbell2474130.300.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.