Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 3–0 Falkirk

Wednesday 13 May 2026, 20:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 37 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,861

Hearts Kent 29', Devlin 34', Spittal 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsFalkirk
Goals30
xG0.560.28
Expected Points1.510.95

Hearts 33%Draw 54%Falkirk 14%

Most likely score 0–0, 45%. Final score 3–0, 1%.

Falkirk goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+12%1%23%8%6%2%45%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.750153045607590HTKingsley on for Milne, 46'Altena on for Devlin, 67'Kerjota on for Kyziridis and Kaboré on for Braga, 83'Forrest on for Spittal, 90+3'MacIver on for Tait and Parkinson on for Wilson, 46'Ross on for Miller, 56'Cartwright on for Yeats, 75'Kent 29'Devlin 34'Spittal 86'Hearts 0.56Falkirk 0.2800.250.50.750153045607590HTKingsley on for Milne, 46'Altena on for Devlin, 67'Kerjota on for Kyziridis and Kaboré on for Braga, 83'Forrest on for Spittal, 90+3'MacIver on for Tait and Parkinson on for Wilson, 46'Ross on for Miller, 56'Cartwright on for Yeats, 75'Kent 29'Devlin 34'Spittal 86'0.560.28HeartsFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsFalkirk

0.56 −1.04xG0.28 −1.06
1.39 −0.41xG on target0.12 −1.16
12 −2Shots4 −8
4 −1.1Shots on target1 −2.9
2 −0.4Big chances1 −1.2
26 −2Touches in the opposition box19 −1
65% +11Possession35% −16
452 +33Passes248 −156
74% −2Pass accuracy60% −16
5 −0.6Corners5 +0.3
13 −4Tackles21 +3
5 −3.6Interceptions11 +1.7
27 −4Clearances51 +22
1 −1.0Saves1 −2.1
6 −5Fouls17 +5
2 +0.8Offsides2 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 26', 0.08 xGMilne 33', 0.08 xGSpittal 67', 0.05 xGFindlay 23', 0.03 xGShankland 37', 0.03 xGKyziridis 49', 0.03 xGSpittal 60', 0.02 xGSpittal 66', 0.02 xGKerjota 90+2', 0.02 xGDevlin 34', 0.10 xG, goalKent 29', 0.09 xG, goalSpittal 86', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals52%0.29 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 2 goals25%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 1 goal18%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals5%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Broggio 68', 0.12 xGHart 44', 0.10 xGMacIver 53', 0.04 xGMiller 44', 0.02 xG36%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals50%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals14%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsFalkirk

0.27 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.18 3 shots, 0 goals
0.29 6 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.10 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
29 min (31%) · Hearts 0.19, Falkirk 0.00 xG
Hearts ahead
64 min (69%) · Hearts 0.36, Falkirk 0.28 xG

Line-ups

2515219188961416910SchwolowSteinwenderKentFindlayMilneKyziridisBaningimeDevlinSpittalShanklandBragaGoalGoalGoalYellow card46'83'67'90+3'83'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes120654282111142922HogarthAllanDonaldsonHendersonHartSpencerTaitBroggioYeatsMillerWilsonYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'75'56'46'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Kingsley for Milne
  • 67' Altena for Devlin
  • 83' Kaboré for Braga
  • 83' Kerjota for Kyziridis
  • 90+3' Forrest for Spittal

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Parkinson for Wilson
  • 46' MacIver for Tait
  • 56' Ross for Miller
  • 75' Cartwright for Yeats

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0002
SteinwenderRB9010.000.04211
KentCB9010.090.0009
FindlayCB900.030.0002
MilneLB460.080.0103
KyziridisRM8310.030.1930
BaningimeCM900.000.0214
DevlinCM6710.100.0217
Spittal LM9010.100.1423
ShanklandST900.110.0302
BragaST830.000.0410
KingsleyDF440.000.0101
AltenaDF230.000.0001
KaboréFW70.000.0001
KerjotaFW70.020.0000
ForrestMF00.000.0000

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
HogarthGK900.000.0003
AllanRB900.000.01017
DonaldsonCB900.000.01018
Henderson CB900.000.0305
HartLB900.100.01013
Spencer DM900.000.02010
TaitDM460.000.0216
BroggioRW900.120.1102
YeatsAM750.000.0203
Miller LW560.020.0812
WilsonST460.000.0001
ParkinsonFW440.000.0211
MacIverFW440.040.0512
RossFW340.000.0001
CartwrightMF150.000.0002

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.50 → 1.51Falkirk1.29 → 1.27Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.08 → 1.07Falkirk1.31 → 1.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title46%61%+15
Celtic
Title54%39%−15

From the forecast before the match (13 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsFalkirk
Expected goals1.720.92
Win56%19%
Expected Points1.920.83
Clean sheet40%18%

Hearts 56%Draw 25%Falkirk 19%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Falkirk goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%6%3%5%2%4%1%6%6%3%3%2%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 13 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawFalkirk win
Hearts
Title46%61%26%26%
Celtic
Title54%39%74%74%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. D1–19 MayMotherwell (A)xG 1.33–0.55
  2. W2–14 MayRangers (H)xG 0.76–0.82
  3. W2–126 AprHibernian (A)xG 1.83–0.54
  4. W3–111 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.74–2.21
  5. D2–25 AprLivingston (A)xG 1.87–2.00
  6. W1–021 MarDundee FC (H)xG 1.64–0.56

Falkirk

  1. L1–39 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.63–1.10
  2. W1–02 MayMotherwell (H)xG 2.42–1.33
  3. L1–325 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.92–1.11
  4. L3–612 AprRangers (H)xG 1.70–3.94
  5. W3–24 AprMotherwell (A)xG 2.06–1.46
  6. L1–221 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.43–0.90

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsFalkirk
Position1st6th
Played3636
Won, drawn, lost23–⁠8–⁠514–⁠7–⁠15
Points77 (2.14 per game)49 (1.36 per game)
Expected Points per game1.711.41
Goals63–⁠3148–⁠54
xG per game1.60–⁠1.041.34–⁠1.30
Home: points, xG per game2.56, 1.65–⁠0.971.37, 1.58–⁠1.20
Away: points, xG per game1.72, 1.56–⁠1.111.35, 1.07–⁠1.42
ManagerDerek McInnes (36)John McGlynn (36)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHearts1.50, 3rdFalkirk1.29, 6thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.08, 3rdFalkirk1.31, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHearts attack: 1.50Falkirk attack: 1.291.501.29FalkirkHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHearts defence: 1.08Falkirk defence: 1.311.311.08

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+12%−17%+3%−11%
Counter-attacks+6%−19%+19%−1%
Set pieces+23%−28%−21%−6%
Penalties−3%−100%−42%−3%
Headers+26%−13%−24%+5%
Left side+17%−7%−44%−9%
Centre+22%−30%−2%−9%
Right side−3%−13%+39%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdFalkirk concededLeft side+17%−4%Centre+22%−9%Right side−3%−9%Open play+12%−11%Counter-attacks+6%−1%Set pieces+23%−6%Headers+26%+5%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdHearts concededLeft side−44%−13%Centre−2%−30%Right side+39%−7%Open play+3%−17%Counter-attacks+19%−19%Set pieces−21%−28%Headers−24%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsFalkirk

1.60xG1.34
1.04xG against1.30
54%Possession51%
14.4Shots12.1
9.9Shots against12.4
5.1Shots on target3.9
2.4Big chances2.2
28.0Touches in the opposition box20.4
419Passes404
76%Pass accuracy77%
5.6Corners4.7
60%Field tilt48%
40.7Final-third entries36.6
12.3Box entries10.6
11.8Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.360.99
Ahead291.891.19
Behind161.770.90

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.361.37
Ahead221.551.05
Behind261.121.41

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.144–5
16–300.250.1212–8
31–450.260.179–5
46–600.310.2012–6
61–750.180.1810–2
76–900.400.2416–5

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.157–2
16–300.260.258–10
31–450.260.285–17
46–600.210.1910–8
61–750.240.1912–8
76–900.180.256–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 30Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 15Steinwender 12Altena 5Halkett 30Kent 4Steinwender 3Findlay 31McCart 3Shankland 1Milne 16Kingsley 13McCart 3Kyziridis 8Milne 7Braga 4Baningime 16Leonard 12McEntee 7Devlin 23Spittal 5Kyziridis 21Braga 5Spittal 4Shankland 24Kaboré 11Findlay 1Braga 24Magnússon 4Baningime 14-4-2 in 15 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 33Hogarth 3Adams 22Lissah 12Yeats 1Allan 19Neilson 12Donaldson 5Henderson 31McCann 24Lissah 9Hart 2Spencer 34Stewart 1Tait 26Cartwright 9Yeats 2Wilson 17Broggio 7Miller 5Miller 10Yeats 9Tait 5Miller 19Williams 6Ross 4Stewart 16MacIver 9Graham 74-2-3-1 in 35 of 36 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (35), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 February 2026Hearts1–0FalkirkxG 1.10–0.74
13 December 2025Falkirk0–2HeartsxG 1.03–1.51
27 September 2025Hearts3–0FalkirkxG 1.94–0.67

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Falkirk won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 6–0 and xG 1.52–0.81 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré131,099520.540.16
Shankland262,3201530.450.14
Braga332,7961430.460.11
Kyziridis302,641460.200.26

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart171,419820.500.07
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7776400.460.07
Miller342,756690.270.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.