Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 1–2 Hearts

Sunday 26 April 2026, 16:30 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 34 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 19,502

Hibernian Boyle 7' · Sallinger sent off 14' · Passlack sent off 48'

Hearts O'Hora 65' (og), Spittal 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianHearts
Goals12
xG0.541.83
Expected Points0.432.35

Hibernian 7%Draw 23%Hearts 71%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–2, 15%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%9%3%5%8%3%1%15%15%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTSallinger (Hibernian), red card 14'Passlack (Hibernian), second yellow card 48'Smith on for N. Cadden, 15'Megwa on for Elding, 50'Suto on for Boyle, Newell on for Barlaser, and Campbell on for McGrath, 64'Kerjota on for Altena, 46'Kyziridis on for Kaboré and Spittal on for Steinwender, 58'McCart on for Kingsley, 90'Chesnokov on for Braga, 90+3'Boyle 7'O'Hora 65' (og)Spittal 86'Hearts 1.83Hibernian 0.5400.511.520153045607590HTSallinger (Hibernian), red card 14'Passlack (Hibernian), second yellow card 48'Smith on for N. Cadden, 15'Megwa on for Elding, 50'Suto on for Boyle, Newell on for Barlaser, and Campbell on for McGrath, 64'Kerjota on for Altena, 46'Kyziridis on for Kaboré and Spittal on for Steinwender, 58'McCart on for Kingsley, 90'Chesnokov on for Braga, 90+3'Boyle 7'O'Hora 65' (og)Spittal 86'1.830.54HibernianHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHearts

0.54 −1.06xG1.83 +0.20
0.95 −0.53xG on target1.69 −0.18
4 −9Shots23 +9
1 −3.8Shots on target6 +0.9
1 −1.2Big chances1 −1.5
3 −21Touches in the opposition box57 +30
24% −25Possession76% +23
173 −243Passes506 +87
42% −38Pass accuracy82% +6
0 −5.2Corners11 +5.5
19 +7Tackles9 −8
7 −1.3Interceptions6 −2.6
50 +21Clearances7 −24
5 +2.3Saves0 −2.1
8 −3Fouls17 +6
0 −1.8Offsides2 +0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Chaiwa 20', 0.03 xGBoyle 43', 0.02 xGBoyle 61', 0.02 xGBoyle 7', 0.48 xG, goal89%0.48 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.48 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals6%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Braga 52', 0.57 xGShankland 65', 0.24 xGBraga 33', 0.12 xGBaningime 56', 0.12 xGLeonard 17', 0.09 xGBraga 53', 0.09 xGKaboré 37', 0.07 xGSteinwender 21', 0.04 xGBaningime 28', 0.04 xGKaboré 30', 0.04 xGBraga 42', 0.04 xGSteinwender 4', 0.03 xGKingsley 27', 0.03 xGHalkett 57', 0.03 xGShankland 62', 0.03 xGLeonard 77', 0.03 xGBraga 18', 0.02 xGKingsley 52', 0.02 xGLeonard 60', 0.02 xGKerjota 79', 0.02 xGKingsley 4', 0.01 xGHalkett 28', 0.01 xGSpittal 86', 0.13 xG, goal13%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 0 goals68%1.25 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.25 xG, 1 goal4%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals13%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHearts

0.06 3 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.45 15 shots, 1 goal
0.48 1 shot, 1 goalSet pieces0.39 8 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
28 min (29%) · Hibernian 0.48, Hearts 0.46 xG
Hibernian ahead
61 min (64%) · Hibernian 0.06, Hearts 1.38 xG
Hearts ahead
7 min (7%) · Hibernian 0.00, Hearts 0.00 xG

Line-ups

15332125221419171047SallingerO'HoraBushiriObitaPasslackBarlaserChaiwaN. CaddenMcGrathBoyleEldingSent offOwn goalYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardSent off, second yellowGoal64'15'64'64'50'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray251541923496310911SchwolowSteinwenderHalkettFindlayAltenaLeonardBaningimeKingsleyBragaShanklandKaboréYellow cardYellow cardYellow card58'46'90'90+3'58'Hearts 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes

Hibernian substitutes

  • 15' Smith for N. Cadden
  • 50' Megwa for Elding
  • 64' Newell for Barlaser · yellow card 90+1'
  • 64' Campbell for McGrath
  • 64' Suto for Boyle

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Kerjota for Altena · 1 assist
  • 58' Kyziridis for Kaboré
  • 58' Spittal for Steinwender · goal 86'
  • 90' McCart for Kingsley
  • 90+3' Chesnokov for Braga

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
Sallinger GK140.000.0000
O'Hora CB900.000.00013
Bushiri CB900.000.00115
ObitaCB900.000.01012
Passlack RWB480.000.0009
BarlaserCM640.000.0003
ChaiwaCM900.030.0009
N. CaddenLWB150.000.0002
McGrathAM6410.000.2824
BoyleST6410.510.0001
EldingST500.000.0003
SmithGK750.000.0001
MegwaMF400.000.0009
Newell MF260.000.0002
CampbellMF260.000.0002
SutoFW260.000.0100

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000
SteinwenderCB580.070.0312
HalkettCB900.040.0605
FindlayCB900.000.0311
AltenaRWB460.000.0510
Leonard CM900.140.5056
BaningimeCM900.160.0313
Kingsley LWB900.060.3721
BragaAM900.840.1710
Shankland ST900.270.5733
KaboréST580.110.5811
KerjotaFW4410.020.5030
KyziridisMF320.000.0310
SpittalMF3210.130.0200
McCartDF00.000.0000
ChesnokovFW00.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.46 → 1.42Hearts1.48 → 1.51Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14 → 1.18Hearts1.12 → 1.09

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title21%39%+18
Rangers
Title44%34%−10
Celtic
Title34%27%−7

From the forecast before the match (26 April 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.461.09
Win45%28%
Expected Points1.621.10
Clean sheet34%23%

Hibernian 45%Draw 27%Hearts 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%2%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 April 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawHearts win
Hearts
Title21%13%19%39%
Rangers
Title44%49%46%34%
Celtic
Title34%38%35%27%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–211 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.10–1.93
  2. W3–04 AprKilmarnock (H)xG 2.30–0.60
  3. D0–021 MarMotherwell (A)xG 0.60–0.44
  4. D0–014 MarLivingston (H)xG 2.18–0.14
  5. D3–328 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.74–0.92
  6. W2–122 FebCeltic (A)xG 0.80–1.94

Hearts

  1. W3–111 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.74–2.21
  2. D2–25 AprLivingston (A)xG 1.87–2.00
  3. W1–021 MarDundee FC (H)xG 1.64–0.56
  4. L0–114 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 1.06–1.27
  5. W1–028 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.33–0.39
  6. W1–021 FebFalkirk (H)xG 1.10–0.74

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position5th1st
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠12–⁠821–⁠7–⁠5
Points51 (1.55 per game)70 (2.12 per game)
Expected Points per game1.721.70
Goals51–⁠3758–⁠28
xG per game1.60–⁠1.131.63–⁠1.08
Home: points, xG per game1.88, 2.04–⁠0.862.53, 1.70–⁠0.98
Away: points, xG per game1.24, 1.19–⁠1.391.69, 1.56–⁠1.18
ManagerDavid Gray (73)Derek McInnes (33)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.46, 4thHearts1.48, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.14, 4thHearts1.12, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHibernian attack: 1.46Hearts attack: 1.481.481.46HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprHibernian defence: 1.14Hearts defence: 1.121.141.12

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%−7%+10%−12%
Counter-attacks+79%−30%+15%−12%
Set pieces+6%−39%+28%−31%
Penalties+41%−39%+1%−100%
Headers+22%−32%+28%−12%
Left side+15%+3%+19%−6%
Centre+14%−25%+23%−28%
Right side−5%−28%−4%−6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+15%−6%Centre+14%−28%Right side−5%−6%Open play−1%−12%Counter-attacks+79%−12%Set pieces+6%−31%Headers+22%−12%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+19%−28%Centre+23%−25%Right side−4%+3%Open play+10%−7%Counter-attacks+15%−30%Set pieces+28%−39%Headers+28%−32%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.60xG1.63
1.13xG against1.08
49%Possession53%
12.7Shots14.3
11.5Shots against10.1
4.8Shots on target5.1
2.2Big chances2.5
24.4Touches in the opposition box27.4
416Passes419
80%Pass accuracy76%
5.2Corners5.5
48%Field tilt60%
38.0Final-third entries40.7
11.5Box entries12.3
16.9Passes per defensive action11.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.461.04
Ahead271.751.19
Behind161.731.30

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.380.99
Ahead311.921.20
Behind141.781.06

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.260.087–3
16–300.220.218–7
31–450.230.269–8
46–600.340.139–4
61–750.230.134–6
76–900.330.3214–9

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.134–4
16–300.260.1212–6
31–450.270.188–5
46–600.300.2011–6
61–750.180.198–2
76–900.420.2515–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 29Smith 4O'Hora 22Garananga 2Mitchell 1Hanley 21Bushiri 21Iredale 29Obita 3Cadden 13Passlack 9Megwa 7Mulligan 16Chaiwa 14Andrews 1Barlaser 24McGrath 6Levitt 4N. Cadden 18Obita 11McGrath 4McGrath 15Boyle 6Barlaser 4Boyle 15Klidje 7Elding 6Bowie 19Scarlett 6Youan 53-4-1-2 in 20 of 33 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (20), 3-4-3 (4), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 27Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 15Steinwender 11Kent 3Halkett 27Kent 4Steinwender 3Findlay 28McCart 3Shankland 1Milne 16Kingsley 11McCart 3Kyziridis 7Milne 7Braga 4Baningime 13Leonard 9McEntee 7Devlin 23Spittal 5Kyziridis 21Braga 4Spittal 3Shankland 22Kaboré 10Findlay 1Braga 22Magnússon 4McEntee 14-4-2 in 15 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 February 2026Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.66–0.38
27 December 2025Hibernian3–2HeartsxG 1.51–1.78
4 October 2025Hearts1–0HibernianxG 0.80–0.39
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69
26 December 2024Hearts1–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.93
27 October 2024Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.97–1.17

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 4, Hearts won 5, and 7 were drawn. Goals 15–19 and xG 1.28–1.08 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6661410.630.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Campbell2508130.390.22
Boyle211,711520.420.11

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré121,016520.570.12
Braga302,5511430.470.11
Shankland232,0501330.450.13
Kyziridis292,483460.200.28

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.