Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 1–0 Hibernian

Saturday 4 October 2025, 17:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 7 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 18,760

Hearts Halkett 90+1'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsHibernian
Goals10
xG0.800.39
Expected Points1.690.88

Hearts 42%Draw 43%Hibernian 15%

Most likely score 0–0, 27%. Final score 1–0, 27%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+12%1%16%1%9%4%1%27%27%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTKabangu on for Braga, Kerjota on for McEntee, and Steinwender on for Kingsley, 84'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 88'Magnússon on for Baningime, 90+1'McGrath on for Campbell, 76'Klidje on for Bowie, 88'Halkett 90+1'Hearts 0.80Hibernian 0.3900.250.50.7510153045607590HTKabangu on for Braga, Kerjota on for McEntee, and Steinwender on for Kingsley, 84'Forrest on for Kyziridis, 88'Magnússon on for Baningime, 90+1'McGrath on for Campbell, 76'Klidje on for Bowie, 88'Halkett 90+1'0.800.39HeartsHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsHibernian

0.80 −1.01xG0.39 −1.57
1.59 −0.74xG on target0.06 −1.68
11 −5Shots5 −10
3 −3.3Shots on target1 −4.7
1 −1.3Big chances1 −1.8
23 −10Touches in the opposition box7 −20
62% +10Possession38% −14
482 +71Passes298 −132
83% +7Pass accuracy66% −15
78% +14Field tilt22% −28
46 +2Final-third entries19 −17
7 −8Box entries2 −9
17.3 +7.6Passes per defensive action22.9 +3.7
4 −2.8Corners2 −4.3
11 −10.2Tackles15 +5.2
5 −5.0Interceptions5 −2.0
63 +38Clearances42 +13
1 −1.2Saves2 −1.0
10 −2.7Fouls10 +1.7
2 +0.8Offsides3 +1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Milne 27', 0.07 xGHalkett 27', 0.06 xGBraga 30', 0.06 xGMilne 55', 0.04 xGBraga 65', 0.04 xGDevlin 42', 0.03 xGMcEntee 59', 0.03 xGKyziridis 23', 0.01 xGKyziridis 55', 0.01 xGShankland 86', 0.01 xGHalkett 90+1', 0.41 xG, goal60%0.48 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.48 xG, 1 goal21%0.17 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals14%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals4%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Boyle 62', 0.29 xGBarlaser 38', 0.04 xGMulligan 10', 0.03 xGObita 20', 0.02 xGBoyle 7', 0.01 xG74%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals3%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals13%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals10%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsHibernian

0.51 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.34 3 shots, 0 goals
0.29 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.05 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
91 min (99%) · Hearts 0.80, Hibernian 0.39 xG
Hearts ahead
1 min (1%) · Hearts 0.00, Hibernian 0.00 xG

Line-ups

253141931814689910SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisShanklandBragaYellow cardGoalYellow card84'84'90+1'88'84'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes154151220222132910SallingerO'HoraHanleyIredaleC. CaddenMulliganBarlaserObitaCampbellBowieBoyleYellow card76'88'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray

Hearts substitutes

  • 84' Steinwender for Kingsley
  • 84' Kabangu for Braga
  • 84' Kerjota for McEntee · 1 assist
  • 88' Forrest for Kyziridis
  • 90+1' Magnússon for Baningime

Hibernian substitutes

  • 76' McGrath for Campbell
  • 88' Klidje for Bowie

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0341
McEntee RB840.030.0200.101012
HalkettCB9010.480.0010.17523
FindlayCB900.000.0000.03414
KingsleyLB840.000.0210.1074
MilneRM900.120.1220.2153
DevlinCM900.030.021−0.0428
Baningime CM900.000.0210.0015
KyziridisLM880.030.1110.0991
ShanklandST900.010.010−0.0103
BragaST840.100.1100.1143
SteinwenderDF60.000.0000.0113
KabanguFW60.000.0000.0000
KerjotaFW610.000.3110.1810
ForrestMF20.000.0000.0000
MagnússonMF00.000.000––0

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0553
O'HoraCB900.000.0000.01310
HanleyCB900.000.0000.01113
IredaleCB900.000.0200.0458
C. CaddenRWB900.000.0100.05610
MulliganCM900.030.000−0.0418
BarlaserCM900.040.0200.0766
Obita LWB900.020.0110.0254
CampbellAM760.000.031−0.0110
BowieST880.000.0000.0323
BoyleST900.300.0000.1601
McGrathMF140.000.0000.0000
KlidjeFW20.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Schwolow and Findlay: 6 passesSchwolow and Halkett: 6 passesMcEntee and Baningime: 6 passesMcEntee and Devlin: 7 passesHalkett and Baningime: 7 passesKingsley and Shankland: 7 passesMilne and Braga: 7 passesMilne and Shankland: 7 passesSchwolow and McEntee: 8 passesMcEntee and Shankland: 8 passesMilne and Baningime: 8 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 8 passesFindlay and Devlin: 10 passesKingsley and Braga: 10 passesDevlin and Baningime: 11 passesMcEntee and Milne: 13 passesKingsley and Baningime: 13 passesBaningime and Kyziridis: 13 passesKyziridis and Braga: 13 passesHalkett and Devlin: 14 passesMilne and Devlin: 15 passesFindlay and Halkett: 18 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 20 passesKingsley and Devlin: 26 passesMcEntee and Halkett: 29 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 37 passesSchwolow: 13 completed passesMcEntee: 43 completed passesFindlay: 35 completed passesHalkett: 46 completed passesKingsley: 64 completed passesMilne: 34 completed passesDevlin: 58 completed passesBaningime: 36 completed passesKyziridis: 39 completed passesBraga: 16 completed passesShankland: 15 completed passes253119431814689109SchwolowMcEnteeFindlayHalkettKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandStarters until 84' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Hibernian

Sallinger and Barlaser: 4 passesO'Hora and C. Cadden: 4 passesMulligan and Campbell: 4 passesObita and Campbell: 4 passesCampbell and Bowie: 4 passesO'Hora and Mulligan: 5 passesO'Hora and Bowie: 5 passesHanley and Mulligan: 5 passesC. Cadden and Campbell: 5 passesBarlaser and Obita: 5 passesIredale and Obita: 6 passesC. Cadden and Mulligan: 6 passesC. Cadden and Bowie: 6 passesBarlaser and Mulligan: 6 passesBarlaser and Campbell: 6 passesO'Hora and Hanley: 7 passesC. Cadden and Barlaser: 8 passesSallinger and Iredale: 13 passesSallinger and Hanley: 17 passesIredale and Hanley: 17 passesSallinger: 24 completed passesIredale: 24 completed passesO'Hora: 15 completed passesHanley: 26 completed passesC. Cadden: 22 completed passesBarlaser: 22 completed passesMulligan: 18 completed passesObita: 14 completed passesCampbell: 12 completed passesBoyle: 1 completed passesBowie: 7 completed passes115541222202132109SallingerIredaleO'HoraHanleyC. CaddenBarlaserMulliganObitaCampbellBoyleBowieStarters until 76' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyKyziridis23
McEnteeHalkett15
KyziridisKingsley14
HalkettMcEntee14
DevlinKingsley14

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanleySallinger12
SallingerHanley10
HanleyIredale9
IredaleHanley9
SallingerIredale9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

2−1.79+4.213+3.26+1.05+2.511+4.019+12.78+1.78+0.77+1.29+0.89+3.76+1.24−3.83−3.22−4.75+0.80−3.35−0.34−2.30−3.04+1.50−1.80−1.71−2.50−1.80−0.20−0.30−0.51−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Hibernian

4+0.25−0.818+5.09+1.73−1.810+6.05−1.211+6.39+3.34−2.07+2.84−0.21−2.26+2.55+1.03−1.21−2.70−2.24+2.21−2.81−0.51+0.20−0.80−0.50−2.21+0.70−0.80−0.52+1.32+1.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.010.010.010.030.030.010.030.060.050.030.01−0.020.060.04−0.010.010.020.010.020.210.160.19LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.010.01−0.010.030.010.030.010.030.010.040.020.020.010.01−0.01−0.030.03−0.030.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackHearts1.51 → 1.50Hibernian1.52 → 1.48Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.14 → 1.12Hibernian1.19 → 1.20

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title1%2%+1
Top six98%99%+1
Hibernian
Top six88%85%−3

From the forecast before the match (4 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsHibernian
Expected goals1.521.17
Win45%29%
Expected Points1.611.12
Clean sheet31%22%

Hearts 45%Draw 27%Hibernian 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hibernian goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%7%5%2%7%3%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawHibernian win
Hearts
Title1%2%1%1%
Top six98%99%98%97%
Hibernian
Top six88%85%88%92%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W3–027 SepFalkirk (H)xG 1.94–0.67
  2. W2–013 SepRangers (A)xG 2.37–1.11
  3. W2–130 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.42–0.50
  4. D3–323 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.21–1.52
  5. W3–210 AugDundee United (A)xG 1.87–0.71
  6. W2–04 AugAberdeen (H)xG 1.03–1.40

Hibernian

  1. D0–027 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.70–2.80
  2. D2–223 SepFalkirk (A)xG 2.43–1.18
  3. D3–313 SepDundee United (H)xG 3.05–1.87
  4. D1–131 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.42–0.85
  5. D2–210 AugKilmarnock (H)xG 1.77–0.94
  6. W2–13 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.42–0.13

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsHibernian
Position1st7th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠1–⁠01–⁠5–⁠0
Points16 (2.67 per game)8 (1.33 per game)
Expected Points per game1.981.93
Goals15–⁠610–⁠9
xG per game1.81–⁠0.981.96–⁠1.29
Home: points, xG per game2.33, 1.73–⁠1.201.00, 2.41–⁠1.22
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 1.89–⁠0.771.67, 1.52–⁠1.37
ManagerDerek McInnes (6)David Gray (46)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackHearts1.51, 4thHibernian1.52, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.14, 3rdHibernian1.19, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepHearts attack: 1.51Hibernian attack: 1.521.521.51HibernianHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepHearts defence: 1.14Hibernian defence: 1.191.191.14

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%+2%−8%+25%
Counter-attacks+93%−96%+83%+127%
Set pieces+60%−27%+114%−67%
Penalties+100%−100%+100%−100%
Headers+53%−39%+28%+14%
Left side+53%−21%+91%+22%
Centre+17%−31%+38%+8%
Right side+30%+16%−5%−8%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+53%−8%Centre+17%+8%Right side+30%+22%Open play−4%+25%Counter-attacks+93%+127%Set pieces+60%−67%Headers+53%+14%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side+91%+16%Centre+38%−31%Right side−5%−21%Open play−8%+2%Counter-attacks+83%−96%Set pieces+114%−27%Headers+28%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsHibernian

1.81xG1.96
0.98xG against1.29
52%Possession52%
15.7Shots14.8
10.5Shots against11.5
6.3Shots on target5.7
2.3Big chances2.8
33.3Touches in the opposition box26.5
411Passes430
77%Pass accuracy81%
6.8Corners6.3
63%Field tilt50%
44.1Final-third entries35.9
15.0Box entries11.3
9.7Passes per defensive action19.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.790.48
Ahead361.841.29
Behind171.771.43

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level591.401.38
Ahead211.891.12
Behind105.301.16

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.071–0
16–300.300.123–3
31–450.240.161–1
46–600.200.213–1
61–750.180.173–1
76–900.740.254–0

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.120–1
16–300.500.165–0
31–450.320.452–4
46–600.230.211–2
61–750.370.111–2
76–900.340.241–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTClark 4Schwolow 2Kent 3Braga 1McEntee 1Halkett 6Findlay 5Shankland 1McEntee 2Braga 1Milne 1Spittal 3McEntee 2Borchgrev… 1BorchgrevinkBaningime 3Milne 2Kingsley 1Devlin 6Milne 3Kingsley 1Kyziridis 1Shankland 5Findlay 1Braga 3McEntee 1Kyziridis 13-5-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1)

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTSmith 4Sallinger 2O'Hora 5Hanley 3Bushiri 5Iredale 4Obita 1Mulligan 3C. Cadden 3Mulligan 2McGrath 2Chaiwa 2Levitt 4Barlaser 2Obita 3N. Cadden 3Boyle 4Chaiwa 1Youan 1Hoilett 3McGrath 2Bowie 1Bowie 4Boyle 1Klidje 13-4-2-1 in 2 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 March 2025Hibernian2–1HeartsxG 0.61–0.69
26 December 2024Hearts1–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.93
27 October 2024Hibernian1–1HeartsxG 1.97–1.17
28 February 2024Hearts1–1HibernianxG 1.70–2.66
27 December 2023Hibernian0–1HeartsxG 1.85–1.30
7 October 2023Hearts2–2HibernianxG 1.25–1.32

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Hibernian won 3, and 7 were drawn. Goals 15–12 and xG 1.08–1.40 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland6539410.480.10
Milne6527110.080.16
Findlay6540300.120.11
Devlin6540000.040.08

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Bushiri5450200.380.00
O'Hora5450000.140.03

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.