Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 3–1 Celtic

Sunday 26 October 2025, 12:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 9 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 18,774

Hearts Murray 8' (og), Kyziridis 52', Shankland 55' (pen)

Celtic McGregor 12'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals31
xG1.570.88
Non-penalty xG0.780.88
Expected Points1.940.77

Hearts 55%Draw 29%Celtic 16%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 3–1, 5%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+4%4%2%7%1%12%13%6%1%4%5%2%1%16%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTAgeu on for Kyziridis and Steinwender on for McEntee, 70'Magnússon on for Braga, 81'McCart on for Kingsley and Kabangu on for Shankland, 90+1'Forrest on for Tounekti, Yamada on for Kenny, and Balikwisha on for Hatate, 60'McCowan on for Nygren, 70'Murray 8' (og)Kyziridis 52'Shankland 55' (pen)McGregor 12'Hearts 1.57Celtic 0.8800.511.520153045607590HTAgeu on for Kyziridis and Steinwender on for McEntee, 70'Magnússon on for Braga, 81'McCart on for Kingsley and Kabangu on for Shankland, 90+1'Forrest on for Tounekti, Yamada on for Kenny, and Balikwisha on for Hatate, 60'McCowan on for Nygren, 70'Murray 8' (og)Kyziridis 52'Shankland 55' (pen)McGregor 12'1.570.88HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

1.57 −0.24xG0.88 −1.21
0.78Non-penalty xG0.88
2.27 −0.03xG on target1.00 −1.09
12 −4Shots8 −9
7 +1.2Shots on target2 −3.6
2 −0.4Big chances1 −3.1
36 +3Touches in the opposition box21 −18
35% −19Possession65% −8
282 −151Passes528 −160
64% −13Pass accuracy82% −7
47% −19Field tilt53% −29
28 −15Final-third entries42 −35
14 0Box entries14 −9
15.2 +4.6Passes per defensive action8.4 +0.1
5 −1.2Corners9 +0.9
16 −4Tackles12 −2
9 +0.2Interceptions13 +5.8
30 0Clearances44 +17
2 0.0Saves5 +3.8
11 −1Fouls10 −3
1 −0.2Offsides3 +1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Ageu 74', 0.18 xGBraga 8', 0.10 xGShankland 4', 0.09 xGShankland 41', 0.09 xGKyziridis 6', 0.07 xGShankland 41', 0.07 xGBraga 51', 0.04 xGBraga 68', 0.03 xGBraga 49', 0.02 xGMilne 61', 0.02 xGKyziridis 52', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.58 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.58 xG, 0 goals13%0.10 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals12%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Nygren 38', 0.19 xGYamada 90+2', 0.12 xGYamada 62', 0.07 xGMcCowan 79', 0.07 xGMcGregor 87', 0.06 xGDonovan 34', 0.02 xGEngels 80', 0.02 xGMcGregor 12', 0.32 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals81%0.71 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.71 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals19%0.17 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

0.44 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.74 6 shots, 1 goal
0.18 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.13 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
48 min (51%) · Hearts 0.55, Celtic 0.20 xG
Hearts ahead
46 min (49%) · Hearts 1.02, Celtic 0.67 xG

Line-ups

253141931814689109SchwolowMcEnteeHalkettFindlayKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal70'90+1'70'81'90+1'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes1514756327424182423SchmeichelDonovanMurrayScalesTierneyEngelsMcGregorHatateNygrenKennyTounektiOwn goalYellow cardGoal60'70'60'60'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Hearts substitutes

  • 70' Steinwender for McEntee
  • 70' Ageu for Kyziridis
  • 81' Magnússon for Braga
  • 90+1' McCart for Kingsley
  • 90+1' Kabangu for Shankland

Celtic substitutes

  • 60' Forrest for Tounekti
  • 60' Balikwisha for Hatate
  • 60' Yamada for Kenny
  • 70' McCowan for Nygren

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0573
McEnteeRB700.000.1120.1163
Halkett CB900.000.0800.0947
Findlay CB900.000.071−0.0828
KingsleyLB900.000.0300.0974
Milne RM900.020.1110.1756
DevlinCM900.000.0300.00412
BaningimeCM900.000.010−0.0117
Kyziridis LM7010.140.2420.2330
BragaST810.190.102−0.0100
ShanklandST9011.030.2410.1662
SteinwenderDF200.000.0000.0122
AgeuMF200.180.000−0.0101
MagnússonMF90.000.000−0.0101
McCartDF00.000.0000.0001
KabanguFW00.000.0000.0001

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0422
DonovanRB900.020.0100.04610
MurrayCB900.000.0200.11913
ScalesCB900.000.0210.12611
TierneyLB9010.000.3420.2668
Engels CM900.020.0400.0156
McGregorCM9010.390.0400.03411
HatateCM600.000.0210.0222
NygrenRW700.190.0200.0543
KennyST600.000.0010.0000
TounektiLW600.000.0200.0121
ForrestFW300.000.0320.2273
BalikwishaFW300.000.0310.0511
YamadaFW300.200.0100.0401
McCowanMF200.070.0200.0420

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

McEntee and Findlay: 3 passesMcEntee and Kingsley: 3 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 3 passesFindlay and Baningime: 3 passesHalkett and Devlin: 3 passesHalkett and Baningime: 3 passesKingsley and Devlin: 3 passesKingsley and Baningime: 3 passesMilne and Baningime: 3 passesMilne and Kyziridis: 3 passesMcEntee and Devlin: 4 passesMcEntee and Shankland: 4 passesFindlay and Devlin: 4 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 4 passesMcEntee and Braga: 5 passesMilne and Shankland: 5 passesDevlin and Baningime: 5 passesDevlin and Shankland: 5 passesSchwolow and McEntee: 6 passesMcEntee and Halkett: 6 passesMilne and Braga: 6 passesBraga and Shankland: 7 passesMcEntee and Milne: 8 passesHalkett and Milne: 8 passesFindlay and Halkett: 9 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 15 passesSchwolow: 8 completed passesMcEntee: 18 completed passesFindlay: 15 completed passesHalkett: 21 completed passesKingsley: 20 completed passesMilne: 23 completed passesDevlin: 17 completed passesBaningime: 15 completed passesKyziridis: 11 completed passesBraga: 7 completed passesShankland: 11 completed passes253119431814689109SchwolowMcEnteeFindlayHalkettKingsleyMilneDevlinBaningimeKyziridisBragaShanklandStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and Donovan: 3 passesSchmeichel and Nygren: 3 passesDonovan and McGregor: 3 passesMurray and Hatate: 3 passesMurray and Nygren: 3 passesSchmeichel and Tierney: 4 passesDonovan and Nygren: 4 passesHatate and McGregor: 4 passesSchmeichel and Hatate: 5 passesDonovan and Engels: 5 passesEngels and Nygren: 5 passesScales and Hatate: 7 passesScales and McGregor: 7 passesHatate and Tounekti: 7 passesMcGregor and Tounekti: 7 passesTierney and McGregor: 9 passesScales and Murray: 10 passesTierney and Hatate: 10 passesEngels and McGregor: 10 passesTierney and Tounekti: 11 passesMurray and McGregor: 12 passesScales and Tierney: 15 passesDonovan and Murray: 17 passesMurray and Engels: 20 passesSchmeichel and Murray: 23 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 24 passesSchmeichel: 34 completed passesDonovan: 18 completed passesScales: 39 completed passesMurray: 47 completed passesTierney: 27 completed passesEngels: 26 completed passesHatate: 21 completed passesMcGregor: 27 completed passesNygren: 10 completed passesKenny: 3 completed passesTounekti: 10 completed passes1515476327414282423SchmeichelDonovanScalesMurrayTierneyEngelsHatateMcGregorNygrenKennyTounektiStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
KingsleyKyziridis11
MilneBraga7
MilneMcEntee6
HalkettFindlay6
SchwolowMcEntee5

Celtic

FromToPasses
MurraySchmeichel19
SchmeichelScales17
MurrayDonovan17
DonovanMurray16
TierneyScales15

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

7+3.06+0.614+3.59+3.80−3.24−3.99+1.05−1.96−1.45−1.24−1.58+3.14−3.44−1.92−4.06+1.91−2.04−0.92−3.83+0.62−0.51−0.62+0.56+3.00−1.41+0.92+1.80−0.41−0.23−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Celtic

4+1.07+2.820+7.412+8.07+3.15−1.05−0.89+3.08+0.210+2.64−0.83−0.65+2.68+2.57−0.14−0.93−0.82−1.82−1.25−1.22+0.42−0.50−1.92−1.81−1.50−1.50−0.80−0.80−0.410.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.020.010.010.010.030.010.020.010.050.030.020.040.050.110.030.05−0.010.050.070.07−0.110.010.20LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.020.020.020.030.010.030.060.060.060.050.010.020.040.050.060.010.020.040.040.160.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackHearts1.53 → 1.56Celtic2.30 → 2.24Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.10 → 1.08Celtic0.79 → 0.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title6%12%+6
Celtic
Title92%85%−7

From the forecast before the match (26 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals1.031.69
Win23%52%
Expected Points0.931.82
Clean sheet18%36%

Hearts 23%Draw 25%Celtic 52%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 53%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%6%5%2%4%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%11%9%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 26 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Hearts
Title6%12%7%3%
Celtic
Title92%85%91%95%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W3–018 OctKilmarnock (A)xG 2.88–0.43
  2. W1–04 OctHibernian (H)xG 0.80–0.39
  3. W3–027 SepFalkirk (H)xG 1.94–0.67
  4. W2–013 SepRangers (A)xG 2.37–1.11
  5. W2–130 AugLivingston (A)xG 1.42–0.50
  6. D3–323 AugMotherwell (H)xG 2.21–1.52

Celtic

  1. L0–219 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.70–1.30
  2. W3–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.62–1.39
  3. D0–027 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.80–0.70
  4. W2–114 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 2.83–1.66
  5. D0–031 AugRangers (A)xG 0.19–0.15
  6. W3–023 AugLivingston (H)xG 3.02–0.24

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position1st2nd
Played88
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠1–⁠05–⁠2–⁠1
Points22 (2.75 per game)17 (2.12 per game)
Expected Points per game2.052.19
Goals19–⁠611–⁠5
xG per game1.81–⁠0.842.09–⁠0.78
Home: points, xG per game2.50, 1.49–⁠0.992.50, 2.46–⁠0.64
Away: points, xG per game3.00, 2.13–⁠0.691.75, 1.72–⁠0.92
ManagerDerek McInnes (8)Brendan Rodgers (84)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackHearts1.53, 3rdCeltic2.30, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.10, 3rdCeltic0.79, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctHearts attack: 1.53Celtic attack: 2.302.301.53CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctHearts defence: 1.10Celtic defence: 0.791.100.79

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+4%−19%+107%−70%
Counter-attacks+72%−91%−15%−35%
Set pieces+63%−35%−22%−3%
Penalties+30%−100%+30%−35%
Headers+40%−47%+51%−7%
Left side+37%−35%+61%−76%
Centre+40%−46%+51%−26%
Right side+2%+4%+49%−62%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+37%−62%Centre+40%−26%Right side+2%−76%Open play+4%−70%Counter-attacks+72%−35%Set pieces+63%−3%Headers+40%−7%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+61%+4%Centre+51%−46%Right side+49%−35%Open play+107%−19%Counter-attacks−15%−91%Set pieces−22%−35%Headers+51%−47%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.81xG2.09
0.84xG against0.78
54%Possession73%
15.5Shots17.1
9.4Shots against6.4
5.8Shots on target5.6
2.4Big chances4.1
32.6Touches in the opposition box38.5
433Passes688
78%Pass accuracy89%
6.2Corners8.1
66%Field tilt82%
43.1Final-third entries77.3
14.2Box entries23.2
10.6Passes per defensive action8.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level411.490.47
Ahead362.211.06
Behind121.771.43

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level611.890.62
Ahead182.041.13
Behind113.391.04

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.071–0
16–300.330.104–3
31–450.250.151–1
46–600.240.174–1
61–750.250.174–1
76–900.630.195–0

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.030–0
16–300.360.032–1
31–450.360.250–2
46–600.280.152–1
61–750.350.053–0
76–900.610.274–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 4Clark 4McEntee 4Kent 3Steinwender 1Halkett 8Findlay 7Shankland 1Kingsley 4Devlin 2Milne 1Milne 3Braga 2McEntee 1Devlin 6McEntee 2Borchgrevink 1Baningime 4Spittal 3Kyziridis 4Milne 3Forrest 1Shankland 7Findlay 1Braga 5McEntee 1Milne 14-4-2 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (4), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 8Ralston 5Johnston 2Donovan 1Carter-Vickers 7Murray 1Scales 8Tierney 4Saracchi 3Inamura 1Nygren 4McCowan 3Engels 3McGregor 7Bernardo 1Hatate 6Yang 2Nygren 2Maeda 2Iheanacho 3Maeda 2Idah 2Tounekti 3Maeda 2Balikwisha 24-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87
14 September 2024Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.88–0.65
4 May 2024Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.78–0.43
3 March 2024Hearts2–0CelticxG 1.65–2.45
16 December 2023Celtic0–2HeartsxG 1.60–0.34

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Celtic won 12, and 0 were drawn. Goals 14–35 and xG 0.92–2.58 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga7615510.740.11
Shankland8716410.370.09
Milne8705120.090.16
Halkett8657300.200.03

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren6557410.460.40
Maeda6536220.360.19
Hatate6455100.100.23
McGregor7662000.090.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.