Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Celtic 3–0 Hearts

Saturday 29 March 2025, 15:00 · Celtic Park · Round 31 · Half-time 3–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 59,062

Celtic Maeda 17', 41', Jota 24'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticHearts
Goals30
xG2.681.02
Expected Points2.610.25

Celtic 82%Draw 14%Hearts 4%

Most likely score 3–1, 18%. Final score 3–0, 10%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+2%4%2%9%8%1%10%8%1%4%7%3%1%16%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBernardo on for McGregor, 64'Idah on for Maeda, 71'Yang on for Kühn, 72'Forrest on for Jota and McCowan on for Hatate, 81'Nieuwenhof on for Wilson, 46'Kartum on for Baningime, 70'Spittal on for Devlin and Grant on for Shankland, 71'Forrest on for Kabangu, 86'Maeda 17'Jota 24'Maeda 41'Celtic 2.68Hearts 1.0201230153045607590HTBernardo on for McGregor, 64'Idah on for Maeda, 71'Yang on for Kühn, 72'Forrest on for Jota and McCowan on for Hatate, 81'Nieuwenhof on for Wilson, 46'Kartum on for Baningime, 70'Spittal on for Devlin and Grant on for Shankland, 71'Forrest on for Kabangu, 86'Maeda 17'Jota 24'Maeda 41'2.681.02CelticHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticHearts

2.68 +0.06xG1.02 −0.35
3.26 +0.39xG on target0.50 −0.89
12 −7Shots7 −6
6 −1.3Shots on target2 −2.3
5 +0.4Big chances2 −0.3
28 −10Touches in the opposition box11 −14
71% −4Possession29% −25
785 +67Passes306 −136
91% +2Pass accuracy73% −4
71% −11Field tilt29% −29
41 −35Final-third entries13 −28
14 −8Box entries4 −8
12.1 +2.8Passes per defensive action39.8 +26.8
6 −2.8Corners1 −5.4
9 −6Tackles16 −2
5 −0.5Interceptions8 −0.9
26 +6Clearances29 +1
2 −0.3Saves3 +0.5
14 +4.8Fouls9 −1.4
2 +0.2Offsides0 −1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Celtic

Schlupp 34', 0.09 xGMaeda 24', 0.08 xGHatate 45+1', 0.08 xGKühn 44', 0.06 xGNawrocki 47', 0.05 xGNawrocki 83', 0.05 xGMcGregor 56', 0.03 xGHatate 29', 0.02 xGSchlupp 35', 0.02 xGMaeda 41', 0.89 xG, goalJota 24', 0.83 xG, goalMaeda 17', 0.48 xG, goal64%1.73 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.73 xG, 2 goals30%0.80 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.80 xG, 1 goal3%0.09 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals3%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Wilson 38', 0.54 xGNeilson 10', 0.29 xGPenrice 23', 0.09 xGMilne 88', 0.05 xGPenrice 23', 0.02 xGSteinwender 23', 0.02 xGShankland 4', 0.01 xG28%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 0 goals58%0.59 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.59 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals13%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticHearts

2.56 9 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.54 1 shot, 0 goals
0.13 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.43 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
17 min (19%) · Celtic 0.48, Hearts 0.30 xG
Celtic ahead
74 min (81%) · Celtic 2.20, Hearts 0.72 xG

Line-ups

12220171527424110387SinisaloJohnstonCarter-VickersNawrockiSchluppEngelsMcGregorHatateKühnMaedaJotaGoalGoalGoal64'81'72'71'81'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers1152318351462992119GordonSteinwenderNeilsonMilneForresterDevlinBaningimePenriceShanklandWilsonKabanguYellow card71'70'71'46'86'Hearts 3-4-1-2Neil Critchley

Celtic substitutes

  • 64' Bernardo for McGregor
  • 71' Idah for Maeda
  • 72' Yang for Kühn
  • 81' McCowan for Hatate
  • 81' Forrest for Jota

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Nieuwenhof for Wilson
  • 70' Kartum for Baningime
  • 71' Spittal for Devlin
  • 71' Grant for Shankland
  • 86' Forrest for Kabangu

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0000.0001
JohnstonRB900.000.0400.12100
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0100.0624
NawrockiCB900.100.0000.08113
SchluppLB900.110.0500.14610
EngelsCM900.000.1610.0203
McGregorCM6410.030.3920.0712
HatateCM810.100.0900.0460
KühnRW7210.060.8830.3582
MaedaST7121.460.010−0.0300
JotaLW8110.830.0510.0434
BernardoMF260.000.0100.0111
IdahFW190.000.000−0.0101
YangFW180.000.0300.0532
McCowanMF90.000.0000.0000
ForrestFW90.000.000−0.0100

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0003
SteinwenderCB900.020.0000.0244
NeilsonCB900.290.0000.02211
MilneCB900.050.0100.0538
Forrester RWB900.000.2510.0107
DevlinCM710.000.010−0.0203
BaningimeCM700.000.0100.0113
PenriceLWB900.110.3110.2058
ShanklandAM710.010.010−0.0111
WilsonST460.540.0100.0011
KabanguST860.000.0100.0331
NieuwenhofMF440.000.0000.0002
KartumMF200.000.0000.0001
SpittalMF190.000.0000.0111
GrantMF190.000.0000.0000
ForrestMF40.000.0310.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Celtic

Johnston and Maeda: 6 passesEngels and Kühn: 6 passesEngels and Jota: 6 passesSchlupp and Engels: 7 passesHatate and Jota: 7 passesSinisalo and McGregor: 9 passesMcGregor and Jota: 10 passesEngels and McGregor: 11 passesCarter-Vickers and Hatate: 13 passesJohnston and Engels: 14 passesJohnston and Kühn: 14 passesSchlupp and McGregor: 15 passesJohnston and McGregor: 16 passesNawrocki and McGregor: 16 passesHatate and McGregor: 17 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 18 passesSchlupp and Jota: 19 passesSinisalo and Carter-Vickers: 21 passesSchlupp and Hatate: 21 passesSinisalo and Nawrocki: 31 passesNawrocki and Hatate: 31 passesNawrocki and Carter-Vickers: 33 passesNawrocki and Schlupp: 35 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 49 passesSinisalo: 39 completed passesJohnston: 58 completed passesNawrocki: 78 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 78 completed passesSchlupp: 57 completed passesEngels: 31 completed passesHatate: 52 completed passesMcGregor: 66 completed passesKühn: 16 completed passesMaeda: 12 completed passesJota: 19 completed passes12217201527414210387SinisaloJohnstonNawrockiCarter-VickersSchluppEngelsHatateMcGregorKühnMaedaJotaStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Hearts

Gordon and Neilson: 3 passesGordon and Milne: 3 passesGordon and Forrester: 3 passesNeilson and Wilson: 3 passesMilne and Devlin: 3 passesDevlin and Shankland: 3 passesGordon and Steinwender: 4 passesSteinwender and Devlin: 4 passesSteinwender and Baningime: 4 passesNeilson and Forrester: 4 passesNeilson and Devlin: 4 passesShankland and Wilson: 4 passesMilne and Kabangu: 6 passesMilne and Penrice: 7 passesPenrice and Kabangu: 7 passesSteinwender and Neilson: 9 passesNeilson and Milne: 10 passesSteinwender and Forrester: 11 passesForrester and Shankland: 12 passesGordon: 8 completed passesSteinwender: 17 completed passesNeilson: 20 completed passesMilne: 15 completed passesForrester: 21 completed passesDevlin: 11 completed passesBaningime: 6 completed passesPenrice: 13 completed passesShankland: 9 completed passesKabangu: 1 completed passesWilson: 5 completed passes1152318351462991921GordonSteinwenderNeilsonMilneForresterDevlinBaningimePenriceShanklandKabanguWilsonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Celtic

FromToPasses
NawrockiSchlupp46
Carter-VickersJohnston42
JohnstonCarter-Vickers39
SchluppNawrocki33
Carter-VickersNawrocki32

Hearts

FromToPasses
NeilsonMilne14
ForresterShankland11
SteinwenderForrester11
GordonSteinwender9
ForresterSteinwender9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Celtic

3−0.51−2.312+2.94−0.84+0.42−3.06+0.96+1.45−1.36−0.98+4.35+1.17+4.15−0.45+1.66+2.40−2.17+3.27+3.14+1.61−1.02+0.71−1.74+1.40−1.11+0.51+0.10−0.70−1.02−3.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Hearts

4−0.13−2.411−2.310+3.55+0.470.07+0.560.04−3.18+0.65+0.72−1.34−1.52−2.62−1.31−1.92−1.85+0.64+1.74+2.20−1.20−2.05+2.33+2.41+0.70−0.71+0.62+0.91−4.83−4.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Celtic

0.010.020.040.020.020.070.040.030.050.030.030.040.100.030.08−0.010.02−0.010.02−0.010.010.130.17LessMore

Hearts

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.010.030.01−0.01−0.010.020.020.04−0.01−0.010.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.43 → 2.46Hearts1.44 → 1.41Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.77 → 0.77Hearts1.22 → 1.26

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six72%68%−4
Motherwell
Top six26%27%+1
11th4%4%0
St. Mirren
Top six9%10%+1
11th6%6%0

From the forecast before the match (29 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticHearts
Expected goals2.590.74
Win77%8%
Expected Points2.450.39
Clean sheet48%8%

Celtic 77%Draw 15%Hearts 8%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Hearts goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+4%2%1%7%3%3%8%3%7%5%2%3%3%1%2%2%9%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawHearts win
Hearts
Top six72%68%79%94%
Motherwell
Top six26%27%24%15%
11th4%4%4%3%
St. Mirren
Top six9%10%6%5%
11th6%6%6%7%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. L2–316 MarRangers (H)xG 1.88–1.17
  2. W5–21 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 3.37–1.63
  3. W5–125 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.72–0.85
  4. L1–222 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.78–0.67
  5. W3–015 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.64–0.16
  6. W6–05 FebDundee FC (H)xG 2.64–0.48

Hearts

  1. W2–015 MarRoss County (H)xG 1.73–0.29
  2. L1–22 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.69–0.61
  3. W3–126 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.34–1.17
  4. W2–123 FebSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.18–2.02
  5. L1–316 FebRangers (H)xG 2.61–1.58
  6. W6–01 FebDundee FC (A)xG 3.06–0.37

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticHearts
Position1st6th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost24–⁠3–⁠311–⁠6–⁠13
Points75 (2.50 per game)39 (1.30 per game)
Expected Points per game2.401.40
Goals89–⁠2043–⁠40
xG per game2.62–⁠0.761.37–⁠1.35
Home: points, xG per game2.67, 2.92–⁠0.661.60, 1.47–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game2.33, 2.32–⁠0.871.00, 1.26–⁠1.47
ManagerBrendan Rodgers (68)Neil Critchley (21)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.43, 1stHearts1.44, 4thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.77, 1stHearts1.22, 4th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarCeltic attack: 2.43Hearts attack: 1.442.431.44HeartsCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarCeltic defence: 0.77Hearts defence: 1.221.220.77

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+123%−40%+2%−14%
Counter-attacks+66%−22%+1%−7%
Set pieces+13%−63%+9%+4%
Penalties+75%−56%−78%+31%
Headers+33%−61%−6%+17%
Left side+90%−26%+15%−5%
Centre+93%−48%+1%−7%
Right side+68%−60%−1%−13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+90%−13%Centre+93%−7%Right side+68%−5%Open play+123%−14%Counter-attacks+66%−7%Set pieces+13%+4%Headers+33%+17%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+15%−60%Centre+1%−48%Right side−1%−26%Open play+2%−40%Counter-attacks+1%−22%Set pieces+9%−63%Headers−6%−61%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticHearts

2.62xG1.37
0.76xG against1.35
75%Possession54%
18.9Shots12.9
7.5Shots against10.8
7.3Shots on target4.3
4.6Big chances2.3
37.8Touches in the opposition box24.9
718Passes442
89%Pass accuracy77%
8.8Corners6.4
82%Field tilt58%
76.4Final-third entries40.9
22.0Box entries12.0
9.3Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level332.630.76
Ahead472.830.72
Behind101.581.00

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level391.291.47
Ahead261.511.12
Behind251.341.38

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.300.116–3
16–300.350.1215–1
31–450.490.1418–5
46–600.470.1314–5
61–750.410.1114–1
76–900.600.1522–5

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.166–5
16–300.170.186–4
31–450.160.235–6
46–600.220.298–8
61–750.200.178–8
76–900.430.3110–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 30Johnston 25Ralston 5Carter-Vickers 23Welsh 1Trusty 19Scales 16Nawrocki 1Taylor 19Valle 7Schlupp 4Engels 18McCowan 12Bernardo 11McGregor 26Hatate 21Kühn 19Yang 5Forrest 3Idah 14Furuhashi 13Maeda 3Maeda 19Jota 4Yang 34-3-3 in 27 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (27), 4-5-1 (1), 4-1-2-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 28Clark 2Forrester 11Oyegoke 11Taylor 6Kent 12Halkett 10Steinwender 5Rowles 20McCart 7Kingsley 2Penrice 24Kingsley 3Spittal 1Devlin 17Baningime 11Kartum 2Boateng 13Grant 8Spittal 4Drammeh 9Forrest 5Baningime 4Shankland 13Grant 5Boyce 3Spittal 18Kabangu 3Forrest 3Shankland 11Wilson 11Vargas 44-2-3-1 in 14 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (14), 4-4-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (4), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87
14 September 2024Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.88–0.65
4 May 2024Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.78–0.43
3 March 2024Hearts2–0CelticxG 1.65–2.45
16 December 2023Celtic0–2HeartsxG 1.60–0.34
22 October 2023Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.73–4.01

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 11, Hearts won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 32–14 and xG 2.57–0.91 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi151,3331030.930.08
Engels181,590960.540.38
Idah151,305800.630.15
Kühn191,5211070.460.28

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kabangu7625610.690.07
Drammeh10879310.500.06
Vargas121,047420.360.13
Shankland242,118460.270.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.