Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hearts 1–4 Celtic

Saturday 23 November 2024, 19:45 · Tynecastle Park · Round 13 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 17,894

Hearts Drammeh 82'

Celtic Furuhashi 55', Kühn 60', Idah 78', 90+4' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals14
xG0.853.87
Non-penalty xG0.853.08
Expected Points0.102.85

Hearts 2%Draw 5%Celtic 93%

Most likely score 0–4, 11%. Final score 1–4, 11%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+1%5%5%2%5%8%5%2%4%4%3%2%1%1%10%11%8%9%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

02460153045607590HTGrant on for Boateng and Vargas on for Forrest, 68'Dhanda on for Devlin and Drammeh on for Spittal, 79'Bernardo on for Engels and Forrest on for Maeda, 67'Ralston on for Johnston, 70'Yang on for Kühn and Idah on for Furuhashi, 75'Drammeh 82'Furuhashi 55'Kühn 60'Idah 78'Idah 90+4' (pen)Celtic 3.87Hearts 0.8502460153045607590HTGrant on for Boateng and Vargas on for Forrest, 68'Dhanda on for Devlin and Drammeh on for Spittal, 79'Bernardo on for Engels and Forrest on for Maeda, 67'Ralston on for Johnston, 70'Yang on for Kühn and Idah on for Furuhashi, 75'Drammeh 82'Furuhashi 55'Kühn 60'Idah 78'Idah 90+4' (pen)3.870.85HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

0.85 −0.31xG3.87 +1.24
0.85Non-penalty xG3.08
0.61 −0.43xG on target4.11 +1.33
9 −4Shots13 −8
4 +0.9Shots on target9 +1.5
1 −0.9Big chances7 +2.2
17 −9Touches in the opposition box32 −8
32% −23Possession68% −6
355 −104Passes769 +57
79% +2Pass accuracy90% +2
29% −29Field tilt71% −10
25 −18Final-third entries65 −10
6 −6Box entries15 −7
25.0 +12.2Passes per defensive action12.2 +3.5
1 −5.6Corners6 −2.9
17 −2Tackles18 +3
9 +0.2Interceptions5 −2.1
37 +17Clearances19 +2
5 +2.7Saves3 +0.8
7 −5.2Fouls8 −1.7
1 −0.5Offsides1 −0.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Spittal 2', 0.16 xGShankland 17', 0.15 xGForrest 42', 0.13 xGDevlin 76', 0.11 xGShankland 21', 0.08 xGPenrice 4', 0.03 xGBoateng 32', 0.03 xGVargas 90+8', 0.03 xGDrammeh 82', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals64%0.55 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.55 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals36%0.31 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.31 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Furuhashi 55', 0.47 xGYang 90+1', 0.46 xGFuruhashi 50', 0.32 xGMaeda 6', 0.23 xGIdah 90+1', 0.22 xGHatate 70', 0.06 xGBernardo 90+1', 0.05 xGFuruhashi 24', 0.03 xGBernardo 86', 0.02 xGIdah 78', 0.54 xG, goalFuruhashi 55', 0.49 xG, goalKühn 60', 0.18 xG, goal16%0.49 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.49 xG, 1 goal75%2.32 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 2.32 xG, 1 goal6%0.17 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 1 goal3%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

0.60 7 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.90 11 shots, 2 goals
0.26 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.17 1 shot, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
55 min (56%) · Hearts 0.59, Celtic 1.54 xG
Celtic ahead
43 min (44%) · Hearts 0.26, Celtic 2.33 xG

Line-ups

15215291461817916GordonOyegokeKentRowlesPenriceDevlinBaningimeBoatengForrestShanklandSpittalYellow card79'68'68'79'Hearts 4-3-3Neil Critchley12620327424110838SchmeichelJohnstonTrustyCarter-VickersTaylorEngelsMcGregorHatateKühnFuruhashiMaedaGoalGoalYellow card70'67'75'75'67'Celtic 4-3-3Brendan Rodgers

Hearts substitutes

  • 68' Grant for Boateng
  • 68' Vargas for Forrest · 1 assist
  • 79' Dhanda for Devlin
  • 79' Drammeh for Spittal · goal 82'

Celtic substitutes

  • 67' Bernardo for Engels · 1 assist
  • 67' Forrest for Maeda
  • 70' Ralston for Johnston
  • 75' Idah for Furuhashi · goal 78', goal 90+4' (pen)
  • 75' Yang for Kühn

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0110
OyegokeRB900.000.0000.0334
KentCB900.000.0100.0439
RowlesCB900.000.0200.14714
Penrice LB900.030.3830.2028
DevlinCM790.110.0200.0119
BaningimeCM900.000.010−0.0305
BoatengCM680.030.0100.0107
ForrestRW680.130.1310.0823
ShanklandST900.240.1620.0802
SpittalLW790.160.0500.0351
GrantMF220.000.0000.0001
VargasMF2210.030.0010.0001
DhandaMF110.000.000−0.0100
DrammehFW1110.120.0000.0310

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0430
JohnstonRB700.000.0110.0592
TrustyCB900.000.0100.1189
Carter-VickersCB900.000.0100.11610
TaylorLB900.000.020−0.0166
EngelsCM670.000.0300.0222
McGregorCM900.000.3820.1151
HatateCM900.060.6610.1861
KühnRW7510.180.1510.2342
FuruhashiST7511.310.0000.0110
Maeda LW6710.230.071−0.0112
BernardoMF2310.070.1510.0621
ForrestFW230.000.0510.0972
RalstonDF200.000.0100.0223
IdahFW1521.550.2100.0710
YangFW150.460.0100.0313

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Rowles and Spittal: 4 passesKent and Baningime: 4 passesKent and Spittal: 4 passesForrest and Shankland: 4 passesOyegoke and Shankland: 5 passesKent and Penrice: 5 passesPenrice and Boateng: 5 passesPenrice and Shankland: 5 passesBoateng and Spittal: 5 passesOyegoke and Forrest: 7 passesRowles and Boateng: 7 passesKent and Devlin: 7 passesDevlin and Baningime: 7 passesGordon and Rowles: 8 passesShankland and Spittal: 8 passesOyegoke and Devlin: 9 passesRowles and Baningime: 9 passesGordon and Kent: 10 passesPenrice and Spittal: 10 passesOyegoke and Kent: 15 passesRowles and Penrice: 17 passesRowles and Kent: 20 passesGordon: 18 completed passesOyegoke: 22 completed passesRowles: 35 completed passesKent: 34 completed passesPenrice: 25 completed passesDevlin: 19 completed passesBaningime: 20 completed passesBoateng: 14 completed passesForrest: 11 completed passesShankland: 13 completed passesSpittal: 17 completed passes15152291461817916GordonOyegokeRowlesKentPenriceDevlinBaningimeBoatengForrestShanklandSpittalStarters until 68' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and McGregor: 6 passesSchmeichel and Johnston: 7 passesTrusty and Maeda: 7 passesCarter-Vickers and Kühn: 7 passesTaylor and Maeda: 7 passesSchmeichel and Taylor: 9 passesMcGregor and Maeda: 9 passesEngels and McGregor: 10 passesEngels and Kühn: 10 passesCarter-Vickers and Taylor: 11 passesJohnston and Engels: 12 passesHatate and McGregor: 12 passesTrusty and Hatate: 13 passesJohnston and Kühn: 14 passesTaylor and Hatate: 14 passesCarter-Vickers and Hatate: 15 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 23 passesJohnston and McGregor: 29 passesTaylor and McGregor: 29 passesSchmeichel and Carter-Vickers: 30 passesTrusty and McGregor: 30 passesJohnston and Carter-Vickers: 37 passesCarter-Vickers and McGregor: 40 passesTrusty and Carter-Vickers: 44 passesTrusty and Taylor: 51 passesSchmeichel: 45 completed passesJohnston: 55 completed passesTrusty: 90 completed passesCarter-Vickers: 101 completed passesTaylor: 62 completed passesEngels: 23 completed passesHatate: 34 completed passesMcGregor: 84 completed passesKühn: 23 completed passesFuruhashi: 4 completed passesMaeda: 15 completed passes12620327414210838SchmeichelJohnstonTrustyCarter-VickersTaylorEngelsHatateMcGregorKühnFuruhashiMaedaStarters until 67' · lines join pairs with 6+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent19
RowlesPenrice16
KentRowles14
KentOyegoke13
BaningimeRowles11

Celtic

FromToPasses
TrustyTaylor33
TaylorTrusty30
TrustyCarter-Vickers30
McGregorTrusty27
Carter-VickersJohnston26

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

6+1.97+0.723+10.55−1.80−5.25−2.28+1.36+0.17+0.36−0.35−0.69+5.21−1.72−3.93−4.07+2.52−1.23−0.16+2.71−2.91−1.60−1.71+0.30−0.83+1.30−0.62+1.60−0.80−0.31−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Celtic

2−1.14+1.29−1.36+1.23+0.27+2.18+2.89+4.38+0.74−0.37+3.63+0.16+1.23−3.13−0.42+0.46+3.06+2.04+1.61−1.01−0.63−0.220.02+0.40−0.70−1.23+2.00−1.23−4.50−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 11 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.020.010.030.050.010.020.010.030.020.030.070.07−0.030.030.020.010.050.030.11LessMore

Celtic

0.010.030.010.010.010.050.020.030.010.020.040.060.030.160.060.010.010.040.08−0.01−0.080.030.020.080.080.020.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.29 → 1.27Celtic2.40 → 2.45Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.33 → 1.38Celtic0.74 → 0.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Top six29%25%−4
11th8%9%+1
Bottom5%6%+1
Celtic
Title97%97%0
Kilmarnock
Top six48%49%+1
Bottom3%2%−1
Rangers
Title3%2%−1

From the forecast before the match (23 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals0.832.18
Win13%68%
Expected Points0.572.23
Clean sheet11%44%

Hearts 13%Draw 20%Celtic 68%

Most likely score 0–2, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+5%5%2%1%4%7%4%2%2%4%4%3%2%1%1%10%12%9%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 23 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Hearts
Top six29%43%33%25%
11th8%4%8%9%
Bottom5%3%4%6%
Celtic
Title97%93%95%97%
Kilmarnock
Top six48%43%47%49%
Bottom3%3%3%2%
Rangers
Title3%6%5%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. L0–110 NovRangers (A)xG 0.59–2.17
  2. W2–12 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.44–1.39
  3. L1–230 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 1.11–1.73
  4. D1–127 OctHibernian (A)xG 1.17–1.97
  5. W4–019 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.73–0.24
  6. L2–36 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.02–0.69

Celtic

  1. W2–010 NovKilmarnock (A)xG 2.12–2.22
  2. W2–030 OctDundee FC (H)xG 4.62–0.16
  3. W3–027 OctMotherwell (A)xG 1.45–0.71
  4. D2–219 OctAberdeen (H)xG 3.21–1.10
  5. W2–16 OctRoss County (A)xG 1.51–0.97
  6. W6–028 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 3.38–0.32

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position11th1st
Played1311
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠810–⁠1–⁠0
Points9 (0.69 per game)31 (2.82 per game)
Expected Points per game1.192.40
Goals14–⁠2031–⁠3
xG per game1.16–⁠1.472.63–⁠0.70
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.35–⁠0.962.60, 3.07–⁠0.65
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.05–⁠1.793.00, 2.25–⁠0.75
ManagerNeil Critchley (4)Brendan Rodgers (49)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHearts1.29, 4thCeltic2.40, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.33, 4thCeltic0.74, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovHearts attack: 1.29Celtic attack: 2.402.401.29CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovHearts defence: 1.33Celtic defence: 0.741.330.74

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%−10%+138%−41%
Counter-attacks−30%+12%+195%−53%
Set pieces+20%+30%−23%−70%
Penalties−100%+48%+17%−42%
Headers−11%+40%−12%−72%
Left side+14%+12%+110%−30%
Centre−17%+1%+93%−55%
Right side−6%−4%+99%−60%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+14%−60%Centre−17%−55%Right side−6%−30%Open play−16%−41%Counter-attacks−30%−53%Set pieces+20%−70%Headers−11%−72%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+110%−4%Centre+93%+1%Right side+99%+12%Open play+138%−10%Counter-attacks+195%+12%Set pieces−23%+30%Headers−12%+40%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.16xG2.63
1.47xG against0.70
55%Possession74%
12.5Shots21.2
12.6Shots against7.5
3.1Shots on target7.5
1.9Big chances4.8
26.4Touches in the opposition box39.6
460Passes712
78%Pass accuracy88%
6.6Corners8.9
57%Field tilt81%
42.9Final-third entries75.3
12.5Box entries22.0
12.8Passes per defensive action8.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.041.91
Ahead121.131.15
Behind361.321.07

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level343.200.83
Ahead542.340.65
Behind31.390.19

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.271–3
16–300.110.192–2
31–450.150.352–4
46–600.130.251–3
61–750.150.213–4
76–900.400.205–4

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.460.072–0
16–300.320.106–0
31–450.500.197–1
46–600.500.155–2
61–750.400.085–0
76–900.440.126–0

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 11Clark 2Oyegoke 5Taylor 4Forrester 2Kent 10Halkett 3Rowles 11Kingsley 2Penrice 8Kingsley 2Spittal 1Devlin 6Baningime 4Penrice 1Boateng 9Grant 3Spittal 1Vargas 3Forrest 3Dhanda 3Shankland 3Grant 3Vargas 2Spittal 6Vargas 2Forrest 2Shankland 10Vargas 34-2-3-1 in 5 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (5), 4-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 11Johnston 10Ralston 1Trusty 6Carter-Vickers 6Scales 10Taylor 8Valle 3Engels 6Bernardo 5O'Riley 2McGregor 9Hatate 9McCowan 2Kühn 8Forrest 2Yang 1Furuhashi 8Idah 3Maeda 8Forrest 2Palma 14-3-3 in 10 of 11 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (10), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 September 2024Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.88–0.65
4 May 2024Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.78–0.43
3 March 2024Hearts2–0CelticxG 1.65–2.45
16 December 2023Celtic0–2HeartsxG 1.60–0.34
22 October 2023Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.73–4.01
7 May 2023Hearts0–2CelticxG 0.28–1.39

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 3, Celtic won 10, and 0 were drawn. Goals 13–28 and xG 0.91–2.48 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland131,131130.300.17
Vargas11853200.280.08
Spittal9809220.100.21
Dhanda6562010.080.19

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Furuhashi8705430.990.06
Kühn8654460.690.29
Engels6479200.450.37
Johnston10880430.120.38

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.