Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 2–2 Celtic

Sunday 25 January 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 23 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 18,859

Hearts Findlay 48', Braga 87'

Celtic Nygren 7', Yang 62' · Trusty sent off 77'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsCeltic
Goals22
xG1.661.35
Expected Points1.571.12

Hearts 42%Draw 31%Celtic 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 2–2, 10%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%6%4%1%5%10%3%4%10%2%2%7%4%1%2%1%17%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTTrusty (Celtic), red card 77'McEntee on for McCart and Kerjota on for Magnússon, 71'Spittal on for Steinwender, 86'Wilson on for Kaboré, 90+4'Tounekti on for Cvancara, 66'Murray on for Tierney, 73'Ralston on for Yang, 77'Findlay 48'Braga 87'Nygren 7'Yang 62'Hearts 1.66Celtic 1.3500.511.520153045607590HTTrusty (Celtic), red card 77'McEntee on for McCart and Kerjota on for Magnússon, 71'Spittal on for Steinwender, 86'Wilson on for Kaboré, 90+4'Tounekti on for Cvancara, 66'Murray on for Tierney, 73'Ralston on for Yang, 77'Findlay 48'Braga 87'Nygren 7'Yang 62'1.661.35HeartsCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsCeltic

1.66 −0.01xG1.35 −0.90
1.48 −0.50xG on target1.36 −0.74
14 0Shots9 −8
6 +0.9Shots on target3 −2.5
4 +1.5Big chances2 −1.8
32 +4Touches in the opposition box14 −22
55% +2Possession45% −24
365 −63Passes308 −345
64% −13Pass accuracy65% −23
77% +18Field tilt23% −56
31 −11Final-third entries21 −47
9 −4Box entries5 −16
12.6 +0.9Passes per defensive action12.1 +2.4
2 −3.7Corners2 −4.8
9 −10Tackles15 +1
3 −6.1Interceptions7 +0.1
13 −19Clearances26 0
1 −1.4Saves4 +1.9
14 +3Fouls22 +10
3 +1.7Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kyziridis 36', 0.57 xGBraga 84', 0.23 xGBraga 11', 0.19 xGKaboré 33', 0.13 xGKyziridis 54', 0.10 xGSpittal 90+7', 0.06 xGFindlay 32', 0.04 xGKaboré 23', 0.02 xGLeonard 37', 0.02 xGKyziridis 59', 0.02 xGKyziridis 70', 0.02 xGLeonard 69', 0.01 xGBraga 87', 0.15 xG, goalFindlay 48', 0.09 xG, goal5%0.09 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 1 goal85%1.42 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.42 xG, 1 goal1%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals7%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Cvancara 60', 0.21 xGScales 5', 0.14 xGCvancara 60', 0.14 xGTounekti 67', 0.04 xGMaeda 28', 0.02 xGTierney 12', 0.01 xGScales 90+9', 0.01 xGYang 62', 0.72 xG, goalNygren 7', 0.06 xG, goal53%0.72 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.72 xG, 1 goal37%0.50 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsCeltic

0.92 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.11 5 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.04 1 shot, 0 goals
0.75 8 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.21 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
33 min (33%) · Hearts 0.18, Celtic 1.28 xG
Celtic ahead
66 min (67%) · Hearts 1.48, Celtic 0.07 xG

Line-ups

1154195492218108911GordonSteinwenderHalkettFindlayMcCartLeonardMagnússonMilneBragaKyziridisKaboréGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal86'71'71'90+4'Hearts 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes122656327428131138SchmeichelAraujoTrustyScalesTierneyEngelsMcGregorNygrenYangCvancaraMaedaYellow cardYellow cardSent offYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card73'77'66'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill

Hearts substitutes

  • 71' McEntee for McCart · yellow card 82', 1 assist
  • 71' Kerjota for Magnússon
  • 86' Spittal for Steinwender
  • 90+4' Wilson for Kaboré

Celtic substitutes

  • 66' Tounekti for Cvancara · yellow card 90+7'
  • 73' Murray for Tierney
  • 77' Ralston for Yang

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0330
SteinwenderRB860.000.0200.0522
HalkettCB900.000.0310.0727
Findlay CB9010.130.0200.0625
McCartLB710.000.0010.0211
LeonardDM9010.030.1210.0245
Magnússon DM710.000.0100.0422
MilneRW900.000.2410.1342
BragaAM9010.580.011−0.1030
KyziridisLW900.710.2410.2362
KaboréST900.150.051−0.0131
McEntee DF1910.000.1210.0000
KerjotaFW190.000.2000.2250
SpittalMF40.060.0000.0000
WilsonFW00.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Schmeichel GK900.000.0000.0340
Araujo RB900.000.0100.0349
Trusty CB770.000.0000.0526
ScalesCB900.150.0000.0347
TierneyLB730.010.1310.0125
Engels CM900.000.0610.0133
McGregor CM900.000.0000.0006
NygrenCM9010.060.1810.0414
YangRW7710.720.0100.0254
Cvancara ST6610.350.6120.1921
MaedaLW900.020.0000.0523
Tounekti FW240.040.0000.0112
MurrayDF170.000.0000.0003
RalstonDF130.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Gordon and Halkett: 4 passesSteinwender and Leonard: 4 passesLeonard and Kyziridis: 4 passesMilne and Kaboré: 4 passesKyziridis and Kaboré: 4 passesGordon and Findlay: 5 passesFindlay and Milne: 5 passesMcCart and Magnússon: 5 passesMcCart and Braga: 5 passesMagnússon and Kyziridis: 5 passesMagnússon and Milne: 6 passesSteinwender and Kaboré: 7 passesFindlay and Leonard: 7 passesBraga and Kyziridis: 7 passesSteinwender and Halkett: 8 passesHalkett and Findlay: 8 passesHalkett and Leonard: 8 passesMcCart and Leonard: 9 passesLeonard and Milne: 10 passesSteinwender and Milne: 12 passesMcCart and Kyziridis: 13 passesFindlay and McCart: 17 passesGordon: 9 completed passesSteinwender: 19 completed passesHalkett: 22 completed passesFindlay: 26 completed passesMcCart: 29 completed passesMagnússon: 13 completed passesLeonard: 29 completed passesMilne: 24 completed passesBraga: 9 completed passesKyziridis: 16 completed passesKaboré: 9 completed passes1154195224918108911GordonSteinwenderHalkettFindlayMcCartMagnússonLeonardMilneBragaKyziridisKaboréStarters until 71' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and Araujo: 4 passesSchmeichel and Tierney: 4 passesAraujo and Trusty: 4 passesTierney and Engels: 4 passesTierney and Nygren: 4 passesTierney and Cvancara: 4 passesTierney and Maeda: 4 passesScales and Maeda: 5 passesEngels and Yang: 5 passesCvancara and Maeda: 5 passesAraujo and Engels: 6 passesEngels and Nygren: 6 passesAraujo and Yang: 7 passesScales and McGregor: 7 passesTrusty and McGregor: 7 passesTrusty and Yang: 7 passesEngels and McGregor: 7 passesScales and Tierney: 8 passesScales and Trusty: 9 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 11 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 18 passesSchmeichel: 23 completed passesAraujo: 18 completed passesScales: 31 completed passesTrusty: 23 completed passesTierney: 15 completed passesEngels: 18 completed passesNygren: 11 completed passesMcGregor: 20 completed passesYang: 9 completed passesCvancara: 7 completed passesMaeda: 10 completed passes122566327842131138SchmeichelAraujoScalesTrustyTierneyEngelsNygrenMcGregorYangCvancaraMaedaStarters until 66' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
FindlayMcCart11
FindlayMilne8
MilneLeonard7
McCartKyziridis7
SteinwenderMilne7

Celtic

FromToPasses
ScalesSchmeichel11
SchmeichelScales9
SchmeichelTrusty6
EngelsMcGregor5
ScalesTrusty5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

1−3.51−5.73−3.31−2.75−2.73−5.03−4.09+0.65−2.09+3.36+0.27+1.71−5.94−1.54−1.42−2.72−0.94+0.14−0.21−1.81−1.30−1.60−1.630.02+0.90−0.54+3.70−0.50−0.94−7.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Celtic

7+4.56+1.822+10.64−1.43−0.910+4.65−0.24−1.69+0.76−1.53−1.62−2.02−1.06+0.19+3.67+2.54+0.53−0.32−1.75+0.52−0.31−1.31−0.73−0.31−2.00−0.90−0.41+0.40−0.31+0.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.020.010.040.010.040.040.13−0.020.05−0.02−0.150.080.030.210.17LessMore

Celtic

0.030.010.010.010.010.010.010.010.01−0.010.030.030.020.010.020.08−0.010.030.010.16LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackHearts1.50 → 1.51Celtic2.08 → 2.05Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.07 → 1.07Celtic0.87 → 0.90

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title27%27%0
Celtic
Title50%47%−3
Rangers
Title23%25%+2

From the forecast before the match (25 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsCeltic
Expected goals1.161.50
Win29%45%
Expected Points1.131.60
Clean sheet22%31%

Hearts 29%Draw 27%Celtic 45%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Celtic goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%8%4%1%7%5%2%5%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%10%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawCeltic win
Hearts
Title27%44%27%15%
Celtic
Title50%33%47%64%
Rangers
Title23%24%25%20%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–014 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.18–0.98
  2. W1–011 JanDundee FC (A)xG 0.36–1.34
  3. W1–03 JanLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.54
  4. L2–327 DecHibernian (A)xG 1.78–1.51
  5. W2–121 DecRangers (H)xG 1.70–2.33
  6. W2–013 DecFalkirk (A)xG 1.51–1.03

Celtic

  1. W1–014 JanFalkirk (A)xG 0.62–1.72
  2. W4–010 JanDundee United (H)xG 3.18–0.34
  3. L1–33 JanRangers (H)xG 2.34–1.44
  4. L0–230 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.59–1.40
  5. W4–227 DecLivingston (A)xG 3.83–1.09
  6. W3–121 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.72–0.91

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsCeltic
Position1st2nd
Played2222
Won, drawn, lost15–⁠5–⁠214–⁠2–⁠6
Points50 (2.27 per game)44 (2.00 per game)
Expected Points per game1.802.05
Goals42–⁠1739–⁠21
xG per game1.67–⁠0.982.25–⁠0.95
Home: points, xG per game2.45, 1.79–⁠1.002.27, 2.83–⁠0.62
Away: points, xG per game2.09, 1.54–⁠0.971.73, 1.66–⁠1.28
ManagerDerek McInnes (22)Martin O'Neill (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackHearts1.50, 3rdCeltic2.08, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.07, 3rdCeltic0.87, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanHearts attack: 1.50Celtic attack: 2.082.081.50CelticHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanHearts defence: 1.07Celtic defence: 0.871.070.87

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+16%−20%+110%−38%
Counter-attacks+15%−48%−9%−40%
Set pieces+36%−22%−11%−24%
Penalties−8%−100%+23%−8%
Headers+32%−3%+66%−40%
Left side+26%−27%+82%−44%
Centre+32%−33%+78%−29%
Right side−8%+1%+11%−38%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdCeltic concededLeft side+26%−38%Centre+32%−29%Right side−8%−44%Open play+16%−38%Counter-attacks+15%−40%Set pieces+36%−24%Headers+32%−40%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHearts concededLeft side+82%+1%Centre+78%−33%Right side+11%−27%Open play+110%−20%Counter-attacks−9%−48%Set pieces−11%−22%Headers+66%−3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsCeltic

1.67xG2.25
0.98xG against0.95
53%Possession70%
14.3Shots16.9
9.9Shots against8.3
5.1Shots on target5.5
2.5Big chances3.8
27.7Touches in the opposition box36.0
428Passes653
76%Pass accuracy88%
5.7Corners6.8
59%Field tilt80%
42.0Final-third entries67.9
13.0Box entries21.1
11.7Passes per defensive action9.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.450.72
Ahead361.811.25
Behind121.981.07

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level432.190.86
Ahead322.231.04
Behind142.441.04

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.133–2
16–300.210.107–4
31–450.280.187–4
46–600.330.129–3
61–750.180.177–1
76–900.470.299–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.370.126–4
16–300.370.137–1
31–450.420.186–3
46–600.290.254–8
61–750.310.126–4
76–900.480.1510–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 17Clark 4Gordon 1McEntee 10Steinwender 6Kent 3Halkett 18Steinwender 2Kent 2Findlay 21Shankland 1Milne 9Kingsley 9Devlin 2Milne 6Kyziridis 5Braga 4Baningime 10McEntee 6Magnússon 3Devlin 20Spittal 4Kyziridis 13Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 20Kaboré 4Findlay 1Braga 11Magnússon 4Milne 14-4-2 in 11 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-2-3-1 (6), 3-5-2 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 21Sinisalo 1Ralston 7Yang 6Donovan 4Trusty 12Carter-Vickers 7Murray 2Scales 18Tierney 4Tierney 10Saracchi 7McCowan 3Engels 14Nygren 10McCowan 5McGregor 21Hatate 12Bernardo 3Yang 4Nygren 4Maeda 3Kenny 8Maeda 7Iheanacho 3Maeda 8Tounekti 8Yang 34-3-3 in 17 of 22 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (17), 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 December 2025Celtic1–2HeartsxG 1.87–0.52
26 October 2025Hearts3–1CelticxG 1.57–0.88
29 March 2025Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.68–1.02
23 November 2024Hearts1–4CelticxG 0.85–3.87
14 September 2024Celtic2–0HeartsxG 2.88–0.65
4 May 2024Celtic3–0HeartsxG 2.78–0.43

17 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 5, Celtic won 12, and 0 were drawn. Goals 19–37 and xG 0.93–2.44 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga191,585920.500.14
Kyziridis181,594360.170.35
Shankland211,8341120.400.12
Magnússon9861200.330.03

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8688420.890.07
Nygren141,2861030.530.29
Maeda181,578750.530.19
Forrest2475100.270.34

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.