Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 2–1 Rangers

Monday 4 May 2026, 17:30 · Tynecastle Park · Round 35 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 18,831

Hearts Kingsley 54', Shankland 71'

Rangers Sterling 23'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRangers
Goals21
xG0.760.82
Expected Points1.261.35

Hearts 29%Draw 38%Rangers 32%

Most likely score 0–0, 20%. Final score 2–1, 5%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+6%2%6%1%6%5%2%1%1%20%16%16%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTSpittal on for Chesnokov, 46'McCart on for Kyziridis, 82'Kaboré on for Braga, 83'Kent on for Kingsley, 90'Altena on for Shankland, 90+4'Gassama on for Olsen, 69'Rommens on for Sterling, Aasgaard on for Moore, and Naderi on for Raskin, 75'Miovski on for Diomande, 83'Kingsley 54'Shankland 71'Sterling 23'Rangers 0.82Hearts 0.7600.250.50.7510153045607590HTSpittal on for Chesnokov, 46'McCart on for Kyziridis, 82'Kaboré on for Braga, 83'Kent on for Kingsley, 90'Altena on for Shankland, 90+4'Gassama on for Olsen, 69'Rommens on for Sterling, Aasgaard on for Moore, and Naderi on for Raskin, 75'Miovski on for Diomande, 83'Kingsley 54'Shankland 71'Sterling 23'0.820.76HeartsRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRangers

0.76 −0.88xG0.82 −1.18
0.86 −1.00xG on target0.90 −1.29
11 −4Shots13 −4
5 −0.1Shots on target3 −3.3
1 −1.5Big chances2 −1.5
16 −12Touches in the opposition box33 +2
42% −12Possession58% 0
299 −123Passes417 −59
72% −5Pass accuracy76% −7
2 −3.7Corners6 −0.7
20 +3Tackles16 −2
14 +5.5Interceptions7 −0.6
53 +22Clearances27 +1
2 −0.1Saves3 +0.2
8 −3Fouls12 0
1 −0.2Offsides0 −1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Hearts

Braga 53', 0.07 xGKyziridis 54', 0.07 xGSpittal 74', 0.07 xGHalkett 11', 0.06 xGShankland 49', 0.05 xGKyziridis 67', 0.04 xGFindlay 74', 0.03 xGSpittal 49', 0.02 xGSteinwender 90+7', 0.01 xGKingsley 54', 0.18 xG, goalShankland 71', 0.17 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals66%0.51 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.51 xG, 2 goals14%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals18%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Chukwuani 19', 0.18 xGTavernier 41', 0.08 xGFernandez 90+5', 0.07 xGChermiti 90+8', 0.07 xGAasgaard 77', 0.06 xGChermiti 42', 0.05 xGTavernier 22', 0.04 xGOlsen 53', 0.04 xGFernandez 58', 0.04 xGDiomande 14', 0.03 xGTavernier 57', 0.02 xGGassama 90+5', 0.02 xGSterling 23', 0.13 xG, goal22%0.18 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 0 goals54%0.45 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.45 xG, 1 goal5%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals17%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRangers

0.59 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.28 6 shots, 0 goals
0.17 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.54 7 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (41%) · Hearts 0.27, Rangers 0.43 xG
Hearts ahead
27 min (28%) · Hearts 0.11, Rangers 0.22 xG
Rangers ahead
31 min (32%) · Hearts 0.38, Rangers 0.17 xG

Line-ups

251541989496391099SchwolowSteinwenderHalkettFindlayKyziridisLeonardBaningimeKingsleyShanklandBragaChesnokovGoalGoalYellow card82'90'90+4'83'46'Hearts 3-4-3Derek McInnes122437211043427947ButlandTavernierDjigaFernandezSterlingDiomandeRaskinChukwuaniOlsenChermitiMooreYellow cardGoalYellow card75'83'75'69'75'Rangers 4-3-3Danny Röhl

Hearts substitutes

  • 46' Spittal for Chesnokov
  • 82' McCart for Kyziridis
  • 83' Kaboré for Braga
  • 90' Kent for Kingsley
  • 90+4' Altena for Shankland

Rangers substitutes

  • 69' Gassama for Olsen
  • 75' Rommens for Sterling
  • 75' Aasgaard for Moore
  • 75' Naderi for Raskin
  • 83' Miovski for Diomande

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0004
SteinwenderCB900.010.00012
HalkettCB900.060.01015
FindlayCB900.030.01012
KyziridisRWB820.110.0214
LeonardCM900.000.16211
BaningimeCM900.000.0103
KingsleyLWB9010.180.0319
Shankland RW9010.220.0305
BragaST830.070.0111
ChesnokovLW460.000.0005
SpittalMF440.090.0214
McCartDF80.000.0003
KaboréFW70.000.0000
KentDF00.000.0003
AltenaDF00.000.0001

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
ButlandGK900.000.0001
TavernierRB900.130.4535
DjigaCB900.000.0209
Fernandez CB900.110.0109
SterlingLB7510.130.0107
Diomande CM830.030.0412
RaskinCM750.000.0514
ChukwuaniCM900.180.0706
OlsenRW690.040.0404
ChermitiST900.120.0602
MooreLW750.000.0411
GassamaFW210.020.0400
RommensDF150.000.1221
AasgaardMF150.060.0100
NaderiFW150.000.0010
MiovskiFW70.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackHearts1.51 → 1.50Rangers1.99 → 1.95Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.09 → 1.09Rangers0.98 → 0.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title37%62%+25
Rangers
Title13%1%−12
Celtic
Title50%37%−13

From the forecast before the match (4 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRangers
Expected goals1.291.44
Win33%40%
Expected Points1.271.47
Clean sheet24%27%

Hearts 33%Draw 27%Rangers 40%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 56%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%9%7%3%1%8%9%4%2%5%8%6%3%1%2%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRangers win
Hearts
Title37%62%36%17%
Rangers
Title13%1%9%26%
Celtic
Title50%37%55%57%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–126 AprHibernian (A)xG 1.83–0.54
  2. W3–111 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.74–2.21
  3. D2–25 AprLivingston (A)xG 1.87–2.00
  4. W1–021 MarDundee FC (H)xG 1.64–0.56
  5. L0–114 MarKilmarnock (A)xG 1.06–1.27
  6. W1–028 FebAberdeen (H)xG 2.33–0.39

Rangers

  1. L2–326 AprMotherwell (H)xG 2.70–0.76
  2. W6–312 AprFalkirk (A)xG 3.94–1.70
  3. W4–24 AprDundee United (H)xG 3.96–1.81
  4. W4–121 MarAberdeen (H)xG 1.61–0.68
  5. W1–015 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 2.08–0.19
  6. D2–21 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.44–3.82

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRangers
Position1st3rd
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost22–⁠7–⁠519–⁠12–⁠3
Points73 (2.15 per game)69 (2.03 per game)
Expected Points per game1.711.86
Goals60–⁠2968–⁠34
xG per game1.64–⁠1.062.00–⁠1.16
Home: points, xG per game2.53, 1.70–⁠0.982.11, 2.08–⁠1.10
Away: points, xG per game1.76, 1.57–⁠1.141.94, 1.90–⁠1.24
ManagerDerek McInnes (34)Danny Röhl (26)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackHearts1.51, 3rdRangers1.99, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.09, 3rdRangers0.98, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHearts attack: 1.51Rangers attack: 1.991.991.51RangersHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHearts defence: 1.09Rangers defence: 0.981.090.98

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+12%−15%+36%−33%
Counter-attacks+12%−14%+50%+4%
Set pieces+27%−30%+53%−1%
Penalties+1%−100%+21%+1%
Headers+28%−14%+46%−13%
Left side+19%−5%+69%−16%
Centre+23%−30%+43%−24%
Right side−2%−9%+14%−14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side+19%−14%Centre+23%−24%Right side−2%−16%Open play+12%−33%Counter-attacks+12%+4%Set pieces+27%−1%Headers+28%−13%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+69%−9%Centre+43%−30%Right side+14%−5%Open play+36%−15%Counter-attacks+50%−14%Set pieces+53%−30%Headers+46%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRangers

1.64xG2.00
1.06xG against1.16
54%Possession58%
14.6Shots16.8
9.9Shots against10.5
5.1Shots on target6.3
2.5Big chances3.5
28.3Touches in the opposition box30.9
422Passes476
76%Pass accuracy83%
5.7Corners6.7
60%Field tilt65%
40.7Final-third entries49.4
12.3Box entries16.5
11.8Passes per defensive action11.2

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.381.00
Ahead301.921.20
Behind151.820.95

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level372.010.96
Ahead391.581.40
Behind143.171.03

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.144–5
16–300.260.1112–6
31–450.270.178–5
46–600.320.2011–6
61–750.180.199–2
76–900.410.2516–5

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.1110–3
16–300.290.177–8
31–450.380.1210–5
46–600.340.1714–4
61–750.340.228–7
76–900.400.3719–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 28Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 15Steinwender 11Altena 4Halkett 28Kent 4Steinwender 3Findlay 29McCart 3Shankland 1Milne 16Kingsley 12McCart 3Kyziridis 7Milne 7Braga 4Baningime 14Leonard 10McEntee 7Devlin 23Spittal 5Kyziridis 21Braga 5Spittal 3Shankland 23Kaboré 11Findlay 1Braga 22Magnússon 4Baningime 14-4-2 in 15 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-1-3-2 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 34Tavernier 23Sterling 7Aarons 3Souttar 22Djiga 18Sterling 2Fernandez 21Cornelius 5Meghoma 23Rommens 5Miovski 2Raskin 27Barron 11Rothwell 4Diomande 12Chukwuani 11Aasgaard 3Gassama 13Antman 6Olsen 5Aasgaard 11Diomande 4Raskin 3Moore 17Gassama 11Meghoma 2Chermiti 13Miovski 12Naderi 34-2-3-1 in 21 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (21), 4-2-2-2 (4), 4-3-3 (4), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
15 February 2026Rangers4–2HeartsxG 2.51–0.40
21 December 2025Hearts2–1RangersxG 1.70–2.33
13 September 2025Rangers0–2HeartsxG 1.11–2.37
16 February 2025Hearts1–3RangersxG 2.61–1.58
10 November 2024Rangers1–0HeartsxG 2.17–0.59
3 August 2024Hearts0–0RangersxG 1.32–0.75

18 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 2, Rangers won 12, and 4 were drawn. Goals 15–41 and xG 1.03–2.29 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré131,074520.550.16
Braga312,6411430.480.12
Shankland242,1401330.450.14
Kyziridis292,515460.200.27

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Chermiti161,6121240.670.08
Miovski141,255710.430.12
Tavernier232,213840.270.28
Rommens5457110.170.33

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.