Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 1–2 Celtic

Sunday 3 May 2026, 12:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 35 · Half-time 1–1 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 18,113

Hibernian Newell 45+3' · McGrath sent off 21'

Celtic Maeda 43', Iheanacho 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianCeltic
Goals12
xG0.362.81
Expected Points0.082.86

Hibernian 1%Draw 6%Celtic 93%

Most likely score 0–2, 20%. Final score 1–2, 8%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+10%12%5%2%4%8%8%5%2%1%1%20%19%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMcGrath (Hibernian), red card 21'Obita on for N. Cadden and Campbell on for Boyle, 46'Barlaser on for Newell, 73'Suto on for Iredale and Scarlett on for Elding, 81'McCowan on for Johnston and Forrest on for Tounekti, 63'Iheanacho on for Yang, 70'Ralston on for Nygren, 77'Newell 45+3'Maeda 43'Iheanacho 72'Celtic 2.81Hibernian 0.3601230153045607590HTMcGrath (Hibernian), red card 21'Obita on for N. Cadden and Campbell on for Boyle, 46'Barlaser on for Newell, 73'Suto on for Iredale and Scarlett on for Elding, 81'McCowan on for Johnston and Forrest on for Tounekti, 63'Iheanacho on for Yang, 70'Ralston on for Nygren, 77'Newell 45+3'Maeda 43'Iheanacho 72'2.810.36HibernianCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianCeltic

0.36 −1.21xG2.81 +0.62
0.45 −1.01xG on target2.17 +0.03
4 −8Shots28 +11
1 −3.6Shots on target6 +0.3
1 −1.2Big chances2 −1.6
5 −19Touches in the opposition box54 +19
18% −30Possession82% +16
160 −249Passes724 +114
52% −26Pass accuracy90% +3
0 −5.1Corners13 +6.4
8 −4Tackles4 −10
16 +7.7Interceptions4 −3.2
38 +8Clearances19 −7
4 +1.2Saves0 −2.3
7 −4Fouls11 −1
1 −0.7Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Suto 89', 0.12 xGScarlett 83', 0.05 xGN. Cadden 9', 0.02 xGNewell 45+3', 0.17 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals80%0.28 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals20%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Maeda 8', 0.18 xGNygren 6', 0.16 xGTrusty 32', 0.16 xGMaeda 24', 0.13 xGNygren 16', 0.11 xGYang 25', 0.11 xGNygren 28', 0.10 xGNygren 66', 0.10 xGNygren 21', 0.08 xGNygren 51', 0.06 xGYang 21', 0.05 xGEngels 43', 0.05 xGMcCowan 66', 0.05 xGTierney 69', 0.05 xGMcGregor 29', 0.04 xGTrusty 38', 0.04 xGNygren 14', 0.03 xGMcGregor 39', 0.03 xGYang 61', 0.03 xGForrest 69', 0.03 xGScales 11', 0.02 xGJohnston 33', 0.02 xGMcGregor 40', 0.02 xGTounekti 45+1', 0.02 xGMcGregor 51', 0.02 xGTierney 61', 0.02 xGMaeda 41', 0.98 xG, goalIheanacho 72', 0.11 xG, goal44%1.25 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.25 xG, 1 goal25%0.70 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.70 xG, 1 goal7%0.21 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.21 xG, 0 goals22%0.63 xGEdge of the box: 13 shots, 0.63 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianCeltic

0.17 2 shots, 0 goalsOpen play2.07 19 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.13 1 shot, 0 goals
0.19 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.61 8 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
70 min (72%) · Hibernian 0.02, Celtic 2.73 xG
Celtic ahead
27 min (28%) · Hibernian 0.34, Celtic 0.07 xG

Line-ups

135331527141119171047SmithO'HoraBushiriIredaleMegwaChaiwaNewellN. CaddenMcGrathBoyleEldingGoalSent off81'73'46'46'81'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray122656342271382338SinisaloJohnstonTrustyScalesTierneyMcGregorEngelsYangNygrenTounektiMaedaYellow cardYellow cardGoal63'70'77'63'Celtic 4-2-3-1Martin O'Neill

Hibernian substitutes

  • 46' Obita for N. Cadden · yellow card 48'
  • 46' Campbell for Boyle · yellow card 54'
  • 73' Barlaser for Newell
  • 81' Suto for Iredale · yellow card 90+3'
  • 81' Scarlett for Elding

Celtic substitutes

  • 63' McCowan for Johnston · yellow card 90+4'
  • 63' Forrest for Tounekti
  • 70' Iheanacho for Yang · goal 72'
  • 77' Ralston for Nygren

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SmithGK900.000.0002
O'HoraCB900.000.04010
BushiriCB900.000.00017
IredaleCB810.000.00011
MegwaRWB900.000.0009
ChaiwaCM900.000.0004
NewellCM7310.170.0302
N. CaddenLWB460.020.0006
McGrath AM210.000.0000
BoyleST460.000.0003
EldingST810.000.0005
Obita DF440.000.0001
Campbell MF440.000.0004
BarlaserMF170.000.0001
Suto FW90.120.0111
ScarlettFW90.050.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0003
JohnstonRB6310.020.5830
TrustyCB900.200.0414
Scales CB900.020.0403
TierneyLB900.070.2612
McGregorDM900.110.2932
Engels DM900.050.0313
YangRW700.190.8840
NygrenAM770.630.3623
TounektiLW630.020.2330
MaedaST9011.290.2402
McCowan MF270.050.0701
ForrestFW270.030.0512
IheanachoFW2010.110.0201
RalstonDF130.000.0201

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.41 → 1.36Celtic2.04 → 2.08Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.18 → 1.22Celtic0.91 → 0.89

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title36%50%+14
Hearts
Title46%36%−10
Rangers
Title18%14%−4

From the forecast before the match (3 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals1.141.57
Win27%47%
Expected Points1.081.66
Clean sheet21%32%

Hibernian 27%Draw 26%Celtic 47%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%8%4%2%7%5%2%4%7%5%3%1%2%3%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawCeltic win
Celtic
Title36%19%28%50%
Hearts
Title46%58%52%36%
Rangers
Title18%23%20%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L1–226 AprHearts (H)xG 0.54–1.83
  2. L0–211 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.10–1.93
  3. W3–04 AprKilmarnock (H)xG 2.30–0.60
  4. D0–021 MarMotherwell (A)xG 0.60–0.44
  5. D0–014 MarLivingston (H)xG 2.18–0.14
  6. D3–328 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.74–0.92

Celtic

  1. W3–125 AprFalkirk (H)xG 1.11–0.92
  2. W1–011 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.94–0.25
  3. W2–15 AprDundee FC (A)xG 3.82–1.55
  4. L0–222 MarDundee United (A)xG 1.10–1.13
  5. W3–114 MarMotherwell (H)xG 2.12–0.64
  6. W2–14 MarAberdeen (A)xG 1.90–1.42

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position5th2nd
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost13–⁠12–⁠922–⁠4–⁠8
Points51 (1.50 per game)70 (2.06 per game)
Expected Points per game1.692.03
Goals52–⁠3962–⁠36
xG per game1.57–⁠1.152.19–⁠0.99
Home: points, xG per game1.76, 1.95–⁠0.912.35, 2.43–⁠0.68
Away: points, xG per game1.24, 1.19–⁠1.391.76, 1.95–⁠1.30
ManagerDavid Gray (74)Martin O'Neill (14)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.41, 4thCeltic2.04, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.18, 4thCeltic0.91, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHibernian attack: 1.41Celtic attack: 2.042.041.41CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayHibernian defence: 1.18Celtic defence: 0.911.180.91

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−4%−5%+99%−36%
Counter-attacks+74%−32%−24%−53%
Set pieces+7%−38%−1%−25%
Penalties+40%−40%+20%+20%
Headers+19%−30%+46%−31%
Left side+12%+5%+70%−40%
Centre+10%−23%+72%−32%
Right side−3%−27%+11%−36%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side+12%−36%Centre+10%−32%Right side−3%−40%Open play−4%−36%Counter-attacks+74%−53%Set pieces+7%−25%Headers+19%−31%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+70%−27%Centre+72%−23%Right side+11%+5%Open play+99%−5%Counter-attacks−24%−32%Set pieces−1%−38%Headers+46%−30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.57xG2.19
1.15xG against0.99
48%Possession66%
12.4Shots16.6
11.8Shots against9.2
4.6Shots on target5.7
2.2Big chances3.6
23.7Touches in the opposition box35.1
409Passes610
79%Pass accuracy86%
5.1Corners6.6
48%Field tilt75%
38.0Final-third entries63.7
11.5Box entries20.3
16.9Passes per defensive action10.6

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.471.04
Ahead281.651.24
Behind161.721.29

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level422.200.85
Ahead331.841.15
Behind152.971.04

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.270.088–3
16–300.210.228–7
31–450.220.269–8
46–600.330.159–4
61–750.220.134–7
76–900.320.3114–10

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.420.1311–5
16–300.310.168–6
31–450.380.1810–4
46–600.240.276–12
61–750.350.1211–6
76–900.490.1316–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 30Smith 4O'Hora 23Garananga 2Mitchell 1Bushiri 22Hanley 21Iredale 29Obita 4Cadden 13Passlack 10Megwa 7Mulligan 16Andrews 1Newell 1Barlaser 25Chaiwa 15McGrath 6N. Cadden 19Obita 11McGrath 4McGrath 16Boyle 6Barlaser 4Boyle 16Elding 7Klidje 7Bowie 19Scarlett 6Youan 53-4-1-2 in 21 of 34 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (21), 3-4-3 (4), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 26Sinisalo 8Ralston 9Araujo 9Donovan 7Trusty 19Carter-Vickers 7Murray 4Scales 30Tierney 4Tierney 21Saracchi 8McCowan 3Nygren 21McCowan 6Ralston 1McGregor 32Engels 18Hatate 16Oxlade-Chamber… 5Oxlade-ChamberlainYang 14Nygren 4Forrest 3Maeda 9Kenny 8Cvancara 7Maeda 16Tounekti 11Yang 44-3-3 in 20 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (20), 4-2-3-1 (8), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
22 February 2026Celtic1–2HibernianxG 1.94–0.80
30 November 2025Hibernian1–2CelticxG 1.65–1.33
27 September 2025Celtic0–0HibernianxG 2.80–0.70
10 May 2025Celtic3–1HibernianxG 2.26–0.82
22 February 2025Hibernian2–1CelticxG 0.67–1.78
7 December 2024Celtic3–0HibernianxG 3.83–2.34

21 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 3, Celtic won 12, and 6 were drawn. Goals 18–44 and xG 0.98–2.36 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6661410.630.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Campbell2534130.370.21
Boyle221,775620.430.11

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8688420.890.07
Cvancara7528210.720.17
Nygren252,2301550.480.29
Forrest3699110.230.45

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.