Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Celtic 3–1 Falkirk

Saturday 25 April 2026, 17:30 · Celtic Park · Round 34 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 58,481

Celtic Maeda 30', 83', Tierney 44'

Falkirk Wilson 70'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

CelticFalkirk
Goals31
xG1.110.92
Expected Points1.481.18

Celtic 38%Draw 34%Falkirk 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 3–1, 3%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+12%12%5%1%7%2%8%9%4%2%3%1%14%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTTounekti on for Forrest, 62'Saracchi on for Tierney, Johnston on for Ralston, and Iheanacho on for Yang, 72'Oxlade-Chamberlain on for McGregor, 78'Ross on for Yeats and Wilson on for Broggio, 62'Parkinson on for Stewart, 80'Cartwright on for Tait, 90'Maeda 30'Tierney 44'Maeda 83'Wilson 70'Celtic 1.11Falkirk 0.9200.511.50153045607590HTTounekti on for Forrest, 62'Saracchi on for Tierney, Johnston on for Ralston, and Iheanacho on for Yang, 72'Oxlade-Chamberlain on for McGregor, 78'Ross on for Yeats and Wilson on for Broggio, 62'Parkinson on for Stewart, 80'Cartwright on for Tait, 90'Maeda 30'Tierney 44'Maeda 83'Wilson 70'1.110.92CelticFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

CelticFalkirk

1.11 −1.12xG0.92 −0.42
1.97 −0.17xG on target1.12 −0.17
14 −3Shots11 −1
7 +1.4Shots on target3 −0.9
1 −2.7Big chances2 −0.1
20 −16Touches in the opposition box16 −4
55% −11Possession45% −6
447 −168Passes367 −35
78% −9Pass accuracy75% −2
9 +2.4Corners7 +2.3
18 +4Tackles8 −11
6 −1.2Interceptions7 −2.2
35 +9Clearances23 −6
2 −0.3Saves4 +0.9
16 +4Fouls10 −2
3 +1.6Offsides3 +0.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Celtic

Maeda 12', 0.15 xGTrusty 27', 0.13 xGMaeda 80', 0.10 xGScales 80', 0.06 xGForrest 37', 0.04 xGNygren 61', 0.04 xGNygren 78', 0.04 xGMcGregor 61', 0.03 xGEngels 18', 0.02 xGRalston 27', 0.02 xGMaeda 31', 0.02 xGMaeda 30', 0.27 xG, goalMaeda 83', 0.13 xG, goalTierney 44', 0.07 xG, goal20%0.22 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals31%0.34 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.34 xG, 1 goal6%0.07 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 1 goal14%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals30%0.33 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.33 xG, 1 goal

Falkirk

Stewart 66', 0.31 xGYeats 37', 0.15 xGTait 43', 0.13 xGMiller 31', 0.09 xGAllan 65', 0.07 xGWilson 82', 0.04 xGSpencer 22', 0.03 xGTait 23', 0.02 xGSpencer 45+2', 0.02 xGTait 26', 0.01 xGWilson 70', 0.06 xG, goal33%0.31 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.31 xG, 0 goals47%0.44 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals10%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal8%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

CelticFalkirk

0.72 8 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.63 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 1 goal
0.39 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.23 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (33%) · Celtic 0.59, Falkirk 0.07 xG
Celtic ahead
62 min (67%) · Celtic 0.52, Falkirk 0.85 xG

Line-ups

1256656342274981338SinisaloRalstonTrustyScalesTierneyMcGregorEngelsForrestNygrenYangMaedaYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoal72'72'78'62'72'Celtic 4-2-3-1Martin O'Neill121520382111142916HogarthAdamsNeilsonAllanMcCannSpencerTaitBroggioYeatsMillerStewartYellow cardYellow card90'62'62'80'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn

Celtic substitutes

  • 62' Tounekti for Forrest · 1 assist
  • 72' Johnston for Ralston
  • 72' Saracchi for Tierney
  • 72' Iheanacho for Yang
  • 78' Oxlade-Chamberlain for McGregor

Falkirk substitutes

  • 62' Ross for Yeats
  • 62' Wilson for Broggio · goal 70', yellow card 71'
  • 80' Parkinson for Stewart
  • 90' Cartwright for Tait

Players

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SinisaloGK900.000.0000
Ralston RB720.020.0108
Trusty CB900.130.01016
ScalesCB900.060.0109
TierneyLB7210.070.0103
McGregorDM780.030.0214
EngelsDM900.020.0408
ForrestRW620.040.1002
NygrenAM900.080.4332
YangLW720.000.0212
MaedaST90210.670.0114
TounektiFW2810.000.0811
JohnstonDF180.000.0201
SaracchiDF180.000.0000
IheanachoFW180.000.0100
Oxlade-ChamberlainMF120.000.0000

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
HogarthGK900.000.0013
AdamsRB900.000.0106
NeilsonCB900.000.0106
AllanCB900.070.01010
McCann LB9010.000.0314
SpencerDM900.050.1226
Tait DM900.160.0105
BroggioRW620.000.0900
YeatsAM620.150.0521
MillerLW900.090.3020
StewartST800.310.0102
RossFW280.000.0000
Wilson FW2810.090.0100
ParkinsonFW100.000.0000
CartwrightMF00.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.07 → 2.04Falkirk1.30 → 1.29Defence (lower is better)Celtic0.90 → 0.91Falkirk1.31 → 1.31

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Celtic
Title31%36%+5
Rangers
Title47%43%−4
Hearts
Title22%21%−1

From the forecast before the match (25 April 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

CelticFalkirk
Expected goals2.390.77
Win73%10%
Expected Points2.360.47
Clean sheet46%9%

Celtic 73%Draw 17%Falkirk 10%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Falkirk goalsCeltic goals0123456+0123456+5%3%1%8%3%4%7%3%6%4%2%3%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 25 April 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowCeltic winDrawFalkirk win
Celtic
Title31%36%20%10%
Rangers
Title47%43%54%61%
Hearts
Title22%21%25%29%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Celtic

  1. W1–011 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.94–0.25
  2. W2–15 AprDundee FC (A)xG 3.82–1.55
  3. L0–222 MarDundee United (A)xG 1.10–1.13
  4. W3–114 MarMotherwell (H)xG 2.12–0.64
  5. W2–14 MarAberdeen (A)xG 1.90–1.42
  6. D2–21 MarRangers (A)xG 3.82–1.44

Falkirk

  1. L3–612 AprRangers (H)xG 1.70–3.94
  2. W3–24 AprMotherwell (A)xG 2.06–1.46
  3. L1–221 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.43–0.90
  4. D1–114 MarAberdeen (A)xG 0.76–1.54
  5. W5–128 FebKilmarnock (H)xG 3.14–0.39
  6. L0–121 FebHearts (A)xG 0.74–1.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

CelticFalkirk
Position3rd6th
Played3333
Won, drawn, lost21–⁠4–⁠813–⁠7–⁠13
Points67 (2.03 per game)46 (1.39 per game)
Expected Points per game2.051.41
Goals59–⁠3545–⁠48
xG per game2.23–⁠0.991.34–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game2.31, 2.52–⁠0.671.35, 1.59–⁠1.20
Away: points, xG per game1.76, 1.95–⁠1.301.44, 1.08–⁠1.44
ManagerMartin O'Neill (13)John McGlynn (33)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackCeltic2.07, 1stFalkirk1.30, 6thDefence (lower is better)Celtic0.90, 1stFalkirk1.31, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprCeltic attack: 2.07Falkirk attack: 1.302.071.30FalkirkCelticDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprCeltic defence: 0.90Falkirk defence: 1.311.310.90

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

CelticFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+103%−36%+3%−10%
Counter-attacks−22%−53%+2%+5%
Set pieces−1%−24%−17%−9%
Penalties+19%+19%−40%−1%
Headers+49%−32%−26%+2%
Left side+72%−42%−47%−12%
Centre+77%−32%average−7%
Right side+11%−35%+36%−7%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdFalkirk concededLeft side+72%−7%Centre+77%−7%Right side+11%−12%Open play+103%−10%Counter-attacks−22%+5%Set pieces−1%−9%Headers+49%+2%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdCeltic concededLeft side−47%−35%Centreaverage−32%Right side+36%−42%Open play+3%−36%Counter-attacks+2%−53%Set pieces−17%−24%Headers−26%−32%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

CelticFalkirk

2.23xG1.34
0.99xG against1.32
66%Possession51%
16.7Shots12.1
9.2Shots against12.3
5.6Shots on target3.9
3.7Big chances2.1
35.6Touches in the opposition box20.3
615Passes402
86%Pass accuracy77%
6.6Corners4.7
75%Field tilt48%
63.7Final-third entries36.6
20.3Box entries10.6
10.6Passes per defensive action12.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level422.200.87
Ahead321.901.14
Behind152.971.04

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.311.36
Ahead241.581.03
Behind241.161.51

xG by period

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.430.1311–5
16–300.300.167–6
31–450.390.189–4
46–600.250.286–12
61–750.350.1111–5
76–900.500.1315–3

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.147–1
16–300.260.248–8
31–450.240.295–15
46–600.220.2010–8
61–750.230.209–8
76–900.190.256–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 26Sinisalo 7Araujo 9Ralston 8Donovan 7Trusty 18Carter-Vickers 7Murray 4Scales 29Tierney 4Tierney 20Saracchi 8McCowan 3Nygren 20McCowan 6Ralston 1McGregor 31Engels 17Hatate 16Oxlade-Chamber… 5Oxlade-ChamberlainYang 14Nygren 4Maeda 3Maeda 8Kenny 8Cvancara 7Maeda 16Tounekti 11Yang 34-3-3 in 20 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (20), 4-2-3-1 (7), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 33Adams 21Lissah 10Yeats 1Allan 16Neilson 9Donaldson 5Henderson 31McCann 21Lissah 9Hart 2Spencer 31Stewart 1Tait 23Cartwright 9Yeats 2Wilson 16Miller 5Broggio 5Miller 10Yeats 6Tait 5Miller 16Williams 6Ross 4Stewart 13MacIver 9Graham 74-2-3-1 in 32 of 33 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (32), 4-4-1-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
1 February 2026Celtic2–0FalkirkxG 0.66–1.07
14 January 2026Falkirk0–1CelticxG 1.72–0.62
29 October 2025Celtic4–0FalkirkxG 4.29–0.47

3 league meetings since 2020/21: Celtic won 3, Falkirk won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 7–0 and xG 1.86–1.09 per game.

Key players

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8688420.890.07
Cvancara7528210.720.17
Nygren242,1401550.500.28
Forrest2637110.250.47

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart141,159820.470.08
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7776400.460.07
Broggio8622410.330.19

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.