Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 0–3 Kilmarnock

Saturday 9 May 2026, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 36 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 7,619

Kilmarnock Freckleton 9' (og), Curtis 46', 68'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals03
xG1.211.49
Expected Points1.091.60

St. Mirren 26%Draw 31%Kilmarnock 43%

Most likely score 1–1, 18%. Final score 0–3, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+3%11%8%3%4%13%4%3%10%9%3%3%3%1%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTTanser on for McMenamin, 14'Young on for O'Hara and Richardson on for Campbell, 46'King on for Tanser, 69'Douglas on for Idowu, 74'Watson on for Clescenco, 46'Mayo on for Schjønning-Larsen, 54'Anderson on for Hugill and McKenzie on for Kiltie, 79'Magennis on for Curtis, 87'Freckleton 9' (og)Curtis 46'Curtis 68'Kilmarnock 1.49St. Mirren 1.2100.511.520153045607590HTTanser on for McMenamin, 14'Young on for O'Hara and Richardson on for Campbell, 46'King on for Tanser, 69'Douglas on for Idowu, 74'Watson on for Clescenco, 46'Mayo on for Schjønning-Larsen, 54'Anderson on for Hugill and McKenzie on for Kiltie, 79'Magennis on for Curtis, 87'Freckleton 9' (og)Curtis 46'Curtis 68'1.491.21St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.21 +0.13xG1.49 +0.26
0.53 −0.44xG on target1.45 +0.24
12 0Shots10 −1
2 −1.5Shots on target4 +0.2
2 +0.3Big chances2 +0.1
18 −6Touches in the opposition box21 +1
59% +13Possession41% −1
609 +246Passes423 +85
86% +12Pass accuracy81% +9
1 −4.7Corners4 −0.4
14 −1Tackles14 −1
10 +3.1Interceptions14 +6.1
17 −14Clearances32 −2
2 −0.9Saves2 −1.6
11 −2Fouls11 −2
0 −2.2Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Phillips 50', 0.29 xGPhillips 51', 0.29 xGO'Hara 41', 0.16 xGPhillips 80', 0.11 xGCampbell 43', 0.10 xGDouglas 75', 0.07 xGIdowu 51', 0.06 xGIdowu 38', 0.03 xGYoung 50', 0.03 xGIdowu 25', 0.02 xGMandron 43', 0.02 xGDonnelly 80', 0.02 xG24%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 0 goals41%0.50 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.50 xG, 0 goals12%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals22%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.27 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Tshibola 82', 0.73 xGCurtis 66', 0.32 xGWatson 58', 0.07 xGMcKenzie 86', 0.05 xGHugill 65', 0.04 xGClescenco 31', 0.03 xGTshibola 66', 0.03 xGThompson 82', 0.03 xGCurtis 46', 0.13 xG, goalCurtis 68', 0.07 xG, goal21%0.32 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.32 xG, 0 goals54%0.80 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.80 xG, 0 goals19%0.29 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 2 goals5%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.08 10 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.37 6 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks1.09 3 shots, 0 goals
0.13 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.03 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
9 min (10%) · St. Mirren 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
81 min (90%) · St. Mirren 1.21, Kilmarnock 1.49 xG

Line-ups

27224216816107988SinclairFraserDonnellyFreckletonO'HaraDevaneyCampbellMcMenaminIdowuMandronPhillipsYellow cardOwn goalYellow cardYellow card46'46'14'74'St. Mirren 3-4-3Craig McLeish1211463113618524420StryjekSchjønning-LarsenStangerDeasThompsonKiltieTshibolaLoweryCurtisHugillClescencoGoalGoalYellow card54'79'87'79'46'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Neil McCann

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 14' Tanser for McMenamin · off 69'
  • 46' Richardson for Campbell
  • 46' Young for O'Hara
  • 69' King for Tanser
  • 74' Douglas for Idowu

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Watson for Clescenco
  • 54' Mayo for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 79' McKenzie for Kiltie
  • 79' Anderson for Hugill
  • 87' Magennis for Curtis

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
SinclairGK900.000.0000
FraserCB900.000.0206
Donnelly CB900.020.0108
FreckletonCB900.000.0309
O'HaraRWB460.160.0005
DevaneyCM900.000.1112
CampbellCM460.100.0105
McMenaminLWB140.000.0000
Idowu RW740.120.0800
MandronST900.020.0211
Phillips LW900.690.0925
TanserMF550.000.1021
RichardsonMF440.000.0302
YoungFW440.030.0320
KingDF210.000.0101
DouglasFW160.070.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
StryjekGK900.000.0001
Schjønning-LarsenRB540.000.0103
StangerCB900.000.00010
DeasCB900.000.01013
ThompsonLB900.030.01110
KiltieCM7910.000.0112
TshibolaCM900.760.0317
LoweryCM9010.000.0513
CurtisRW8720.520.1624
Hugill ST790.040.0401
ClescencoLW460.030.0204
WatsonMF440.070.1411
MayoDF360.000.0005
McKenzieMF110.050.0000
AndersonFW110.000.0612
MagennisMF30.000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.07 → 1.06Kilmarnock1.14 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.42 → 1.44Kilmarnock1.60 → 1.57

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
11th53%94%+41
Kilmarnock
11th46%5%−41

From the forecast before the match (9 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.511.05
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.691.04
Clean sheet35%22%

St. Mirren 47%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%4%5%2%2%2%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 9 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
11th53%24%66%94%
Kilmarnock
11th46%75%33%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. L0–12 MayDundee FC (A)xG 0.51–0.46
  2. L0–225 AprLivingston (H)xG 1.10–0.72
  3. L0–111 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.25–0.94
  4. W2–04 AprAberdeen (H)xG 0.90–0.53
  5. W2–121 MarFalkirk (A)xG 0.90–1.43
  6. L0–115 MarRangers (H)xG 0.19–2.08

Kilmarnock

  1. W3–02 MayDundee United (H)xG 2.40–2.11
  2. L0–125 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.71–0.50
  3. D2–211 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–1.32
  4. L0–34 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.60–2.30
  5. W2–021 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.71–0.79
  6. W1–014 MarHearts (H)xG 1.27–1.06

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position11th10th
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost7–⁠9–⁠197–⁠10–⁠18
Points30 (0.86 per game)31 (0.89 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.02
Goals27–⁠5140–⁠66
xG per game1.08–⁠1.321.23–⁠1.88
Home: points, xG per game1.18, 1.10–⁠1.051.22, 1.50–⁠1.62
Away: points, xG per game0.56, 1.06–⁠1.570.53, 0.94–⁠2.16
ManagerCraig McLeish (6)Neil McCann (13)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.07, 10thKilmarnock1.14, 8thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.42, 7thKilmarnock1.60, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySt. Mirren attack: 1.07Kilmarnock attack: 1.141.141.07KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMaySt. Mirren defence: 1.42Kilmarnock defence: 1.601.601.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%−6%−13%+29%
Counter-attacks−43%+44%+8%+4%
Set pieces+10%−19%−3%+26%
Penalties−61%−41%−80%+116%
Headers+11%+2%−5%+8%
Left side−25%−3%−35%+19%
Centre−22%−2%+9%+33%
Right side−14%−11%−18%+13%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−25%+13%Centre−22%+33%Right side−14%+19%Open play−31%+29%Counter-attacks−43%+4%Set pieces+10%+26%Headers+11%+8%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−35%−11%Centre+9%−2%Right side−18%−3%Open play−13%−6%Counter-attacks+8%+44%Set pieces−3%−19%Headers−5%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.08xG1.23
1.32xG against1.88
46%Possession42%
11.8Shots11.1
12.4Shots against14.8
3.5Shots on target3.8
1.7Big chances1.9
24.1Touches in the opposition box19.9
363Passes338
74%Pass accuracy72%
5.7Corners4.4
46%Field tilt41%
35.8Final-third entries33.2
10.7Box entries9.7
15.4Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level541.131.34
Ahead120.881.48
Behind241.071.18

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.431.81
Ahead201.152.19
Behind351.081.77

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.171–5
16–300.150.175–4
31–450.160.284–10
46–600.170.174–8
61–750.190.245–8
76–900.240.288–16

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.293–10
16–300.230.269–10
31–450.270.2911–6
46–600.120.306–14
61–750.180.313–11
76–900.300.418–15

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 33Sinclair 2Fraser 26Donnelly 3Richardson 1King 21Gogic 20Freckleton 34Richard… 20RichardsonMcMena… 8McMenaminO'Hara 4Phillips 33Baccus 13Devaney 10Donnelly 5O'Hara 13Gogic 11Idowu 5John 27Tanser 7McMenamin 1Nlundulu 15Idowu 8Young 4Mandron 26Ayunga 14John 13-5-2 in 25 of 35 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (25), 3-4-1-2 (3), 5-3-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 11Stryjek 9Schjønning-L… 7Schjønning-LarsenBrandon 7Brown 7Mayo 13Stanger 12Schilte-Brown 10Deas 32Williams 3Thompson 17Schjønning-L… 6Schjønning-LarsenLyons 4Lyons 7Watson 7Brown 6Watson 15Lyons 11Tshibola 6Polworth 16Lowery 10Kiltie 7Kiltie 8Thompson 8Mayo 4Anderson 20Daniels 4Tiffoney 3Dackers 11John-Jules 10Hugill 84-4-2 in 6 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 February 2026Kilmarnock4–3St. MirrenxG 2.76–1.96
27 December 2025St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 1.36–0.75
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29
2 January 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.98–0.26
14 September 2024St. Mirren2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–0.59

17 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Kilmarnock won 8, and 7 were drawn. Goals 19–26 and xG 0.91–1.35 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin131,189110.210.26
Mandron262,337440.220.13
Ayunga141,197300.310.03
Nlundulu161,545300.240.06

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Curtis10812210.310.17
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Hugill9832420.330.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.