Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Mirren 5–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 29 March 2025, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 31 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 7,542

St. Mirren Boyd-Munce 6', 58', Idowu 9' (pen), O'Hara 65', John 69'

Kilmarnock Anderson 88' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals51
xG1.741.29
Non-penalty xG0.950.50
Expected Points1.750.90

St. Mirren 47%Draw 35%Kilmarnock 18%

Most likely score 2–1, 23%. Final score 5–1, <1%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+3%2%4%10%1%5%15%2%2%7%4%18%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTSmyth on for Boyd-Munce, Kiltie on for Phillips, and Oseni on for Idowu, 73'Kenny on for Fraser and Tanser on for John, 80'Watson on for Lyons, 46'Deas on for Ndaba and Wales on for Polworth, 63'Findlay on for Watkins and McKenzie on for Kennedy, 73'Boyd-Munce 6'Idowu 9' (pen)Boyd-Munce 58'O'Hara 65'John 69'Anderson 88' (pen)St. Mirren 1.74Kilmarnock 1.2900.511.520153045607590HTSmyth on for Boyd-Munce, Kiltie on for Phillips, and Oseni on for Idowu, 73'Kenny on for Fraser and Tanser on for John, 80'Watson on for Lyons, 46'Deas on for Ndaba and Wales on for Polworth, 63'Findlay on for Watkins and McKenzie on for Kennedy, 73'Boyd-Munce 6'Idowu 9' (pen)Boyd-Munce 58'O'Hara 65'John 69'Anderson 88' (pen)1.741.29St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.74 +0.57xG1.29 −0.09
0.95Non-penalty xG0.50
2.72 +1.56xG on target0.78 −0.40
9 −2Shots5 −8
8 +4.1Shots on target1 −2.9
4 +2.0Big chances2 0.0
18 −2Touches in the opposition box14 −9
42% 0Possession58% +13
239 −55Passes316 −1
66% +2Pass accuracy71% +4
46% +4Field tilt54% +9
23 −8Final-third entries20 −13
10 +1.1Box entries4 −6.4
14.6 0Passes per defensive action7.4 −7
4 −0.6Corners7 +1.2
14 −2Tackles16 +1
7 −1.2Interceptions8 −0.8
40 +12Clearances18 −18
0 −2.5Saves3 +0.4
15 +2Fouls9 −1
2 −0.2Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Taylor 51', 0.61 xGPhillips 40', 0.05 xGAyunga 57', 0.02 xGO'Hara 33', 0.00 xGO'Hara 65', 0.15 xG, goalBoyd-Munce 58', 0.05 xG, goalJohn 69', 0.04 xG, goalBoyd-Munce 6', 0.02 xG, goal64%0.61 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.61 xG, 0 goals21%0.20 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.20 xG, 2 goals6%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 1 goal7%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Polworth 24', 0.31 xGLyons 21', 0.11 xGAnderson 34', 0.06 xGMayo 34', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals96%0.48 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.48 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals4%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.28 6 shots, 3 goalsOpen play0.39 3 shots, 0 goals
0.67 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.11 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
6 min (7%) · St. Mirren 0.03, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
St. Mirren ahead
84 min (93%) · St. Mirren 1.71, Kilmarnock 1.29 xG

Line-ups

12213528815624127HemmingFraserGogicTaylorAlebiosuPhillipsBoyd-MunceO'HaraJohnIdowuAyungaGoalGoalGoalGoalGoal80'73'73'80'73'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson208543152231101923McCrorieLyonsMayoWrightNdabaMurrayDonnellyPolworthKennedyAndersonWatkinsYellow cardGoalYellow card46'63'63'73'73'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 73' Smyth for Boyd-Munce
  • 73' Kiltie for Phillips
  • 73' Oseni for Idowu
  • 80' Kenny for Fraser
  • 80' Tanser for John

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Watson for Lyons
  • 63' Deas for Ndaba
  • 63' Wales for Polworth
  • 73' Findlay for Watkins
  • 73' McKenzie for Kennedy

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
HemmingGK900.000.0000.0002
FraserCB800.000.0100.0444
GogicCB900.000.0000.02214
TaylorCB9010.610.0410.09514
AlebiosuRWB900.000.0000.0865
PhillipsCM730.050.000−0.0212
Boyd-MunceCM7320.080.4810.2044
O'HaraCM9010.150.010−0.0122
JohnLWB8010.040.0610.0346
IdowuST7310.790.0310.0132
AyungaST9020.020.0420.0322
SmythMF170.000.0100.0123
KiltieFW170.000.0000.0000
OseniFW170.000.0100.0110
KennyDF100.000.0000.0004
TanserMF100.000.0000.0010

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0550
LyonsRB460.110.000−0.0112
MayoCB900.020.0000.0448
Wright CB900.000.0000.01010
NdabaLB630.000.0000.0553
MurrayRM900.000.0100.0113
DonnellyCM900.000.5710.2466
PolworthCM630.310.010−0.0112
KennedyLM730.000.3810.0232
Anderson ST9010.840.010−0.0101
WatkinsST730.000.0000.0001
WatsonMF440.000.0100.0421
DeasDF270.000.0700.0932
WalesFW270.000.0000.0011
FindlayDF170.000.0000.0000
McKenzieMF170.000.0000.0111

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

Taylor and John: 3 passesFraser and Ayunga: 3 passesAlebiosu and Phillips: 3 passesJohn and Phillips: 3 passesJohn and Ayunga: 3 passesPhillips and Idowu: 3 passesGogic and Fraser: 4 passesTaylor and Ayunga: 4 passesAlebiosu and Idowu: 4 passesAlebiosu and Ayunga: 4 passesO'Hara and Idowu: 4 passesTaylor and O'Hara: 5 passesFraser and Alebiosu: 5 passesFraser and Boyd-Munce: 5 passesPhillips and O'Hara: 5 passesIdowu and Ayunga: 6 passesJohn and Boyd-Munce: 7 passesBoyd-Munce and Idowu: 7 passesTaylor and Boyd-Munce: 8 passesO'Hara and Boyd-Munce: 8 passesJohn and O'Hara: 11 passesHemming: 4 completed passesGogic: 7 completed passesTaylor: 15 completed passesFraser: 15 completed passesAlebiosu: 11 completed passesJohn: 19 completed passesPhillips: 11 completed passesO'Hara: 18 completed passesBoyd-Munce: 19 completed passesIdowu: 10 completed passesAyunga: 9 completed passes11352222488615127HemmingGogicTaylorFraserAlebiosuJohnPhillipsO'HaraBoyd-MunceIdowuAyungaStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

McCrorie and Ndaba: 3 passesMcCrorie and Anderson: 3 passesLyons and Ndaba: 3 passesLyons and Murray: 3 passesNdaba and Polworth: 3 passesMurray and Polworth: 3 passesPolworth and Anderson: 3 passesDonnelly and Kennedy: 3 passesKennedy and Anderson: 3 passesLyons and Kennedy: 4 passesMayo and Ndaba: 4 passesNdaba and Watkins: 4 passesKennedy and Watkins: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 5 passesMcCrorie and Wright: 7 passesLyons and Mayo: 7 passesLyons and Polworth: 7 passesLyons and Wright: 8 passesMayo and Murray: 8 passesMcCrorie and Mayo: 9 passesWright and Mayo: 10 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 10 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 10 passesWright and Ndaba: 15 passesMcCrorie: 17 completed passesLyons: 17 completed passesWright: 23 completed passesMayo: 24 completed passesNdaba: 27 completed passesMurray: 9 completed passesPolworth: 14 completed passesDonnelly: 11 completed passesKennedy: 15 completed passesAnderson: 9 completed passesWatkins: 3 completed passes208453153122101923McCrorieLyonsWrightMayoNdabaMurrayPolworthDonnellyKennedyAndersonWatkinsStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
JohnO'Hara10
O'HaraBoyd-Munce6
TaylorBoyd-Munce5
TaylorO'Hara5
Boyd-MunceIdowu4

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightNdaba9
LyonsWright7
NdabaDonnelly7
MayoMurray7
WrightMayo7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

11+6.36−0.1130.06−1.14−1.28+1.815+8.34−1.34−2.713+4.87+1.78+3.50−3.56+1.65−0.91−2.80−3.83−0.24+0.30−4.02−0.94+2.10−1.410.02−0.30−1.00−0.62+0.91+0.51+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Kilmarnock

5+0.45−2.84−3.66+1.160.08+0.83−3.86−0.57+0.69+3.740.01−2.72−2.74−0.93−0.14+0.21−1.37+3.63−1.22+0.10−1.70−0.82+0.50−2.81+0.40−0.41+0.22+1.63+2.25−11.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.020.030.030.010.030.020.030.010.05−0.010.02−0.020.040.02−0.010.010.20LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.02−0.01−0.010.020.030.010.010.010.070.02−0.01−0.010.050.070.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.16 → 1.19Kilmarnock1.23 → 1.23Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.42 → 1.41Kilmarnock1.39 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six9%19%+10
11th6%2%−4
Bottom1%<1%−1
Kilmarnock
11th17%24%+7
Bottom3%5%+2
Hearts
Top six72%68%−4
Dundee FC
11th48%45%−3
Bottom16%15%−1

From the forecast before the match (29 March 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.381.18
Win41%31%
Expected Points1.511.21
Clean sheet31%25%

St. Mirren 41%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 March 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six9%19%3%1%
11th6%2%6%11%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Kilmarnock
11th17%24%17%8%
Bottom3%5%2%1%
Hearts
Top six72%68%74%75%
Dundee FC
11th48%45%48%50%
Bottom16%15%16%16%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D2–215 MarMotherwell (A)xG 1.24–0.67
  2. L2–51 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.63–3.37
  3. L1–326 FebHearts (A)xG 1.17–1.34
  4. W2–022 FebRangers (A)xG 1.49–0.81
  5. D0–016 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.70–0.37
  6. L0–11 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.38–0.51

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–115 MarHibernian (H)xG 0.64–2.01
  2. L0–11 MarRoss County (A)xG 2.52–1.10
  3. L2–426 FebRangers (H)xG 1.38–1.95
  4. L0–122 FebAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.08
  5. W3–115 FebSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.40–0.67
  6. W1–01 FebDundee United (H)xG 1.39–1.46

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position8th10th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠5–⁠158–⁠8–⁠14
Points35 (1.17 per game)32 (1.07 per game)
Expected Points per game1.191.30
Goals37–⁠4934–⁠48
xG per game1.17–⁠1.521.38–⁠1.49
Home: points, xG per game1.20, 1.11–⁠1.261.53, 1.76–⁠1.23
Away: points, xG per game1.13, 1.24–⁠1.790.60, 0.99–⁠1.75
ManagerStephen Robinson (63)Derek McInnes (106)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackSt. Mirren1.16, 7thKilmarnock1.23, 5thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.42, 6thKilmarnock1.39, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren attack: 1.16Kilmarnock attack: 1.231.231.16KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarSt. Mirren defence: 1.42Kilmarnock defence: 1.391.421.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−25%−5%−10%+7%
Counter-attacks−14%−2%−46%+1%
Set pieces−17%+15%+23%+17%
Penalties+31%+75%+9%−35%
Headers−16%−10%−5%−3%
Left side−28%−5%+4%+1%
Centre−23%−1%−10%+14%
Right side−13%+15%+2%+5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−28%+5%Centre−23%+14%Right side−13%+1%Open play−25%+7%Counter-attacks−14%+1%Set pieces−17%+17%Headers−16%−3%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+4%+15%Centre−10%−1%Right side+2%−5%Open play−10%−5%Counter-attacks−46%−2%Set pieces+23%+15%Headers−5%−10%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.17xG1.38
1.52xG against1.49
42%Possession45%
11.2Shots12.9
12.2Shots against12.8
3.9Shots on target3.9
2.0Big chances2.0
20.0Touches in the opposition box22.7
294Passes317
64%Pass accuracy66%
4.6Corners5.8
42%Field tilt44%
31.3Final-third entries32.6
8.9Box entries10.4
14.9Passes per defensive action14.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level501.171.25
Ahead201.131.69
Behind201.242.05

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.381.53
Ahead161.601.38
Behind301.251.49

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.245–6
16–300.160.148–5
31–450.330.1710–7
46–600.170.194–7
61–750.110.311–12
76–900.240.469–12

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.240.225–3
16–300.210.213–7
31–450.140.272–9
46–600.170.247–8
61–750.270.227–8
76–900.340.3210–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 21Hemming 9Fraser 27Alebiosu 1Idowu 1Gogic 25Iacovitti 8Taylor 23Dunne 4Bwomono 15Rooney 6Alebiosu 4Phillips 27Idowu 8Adeniran 2Boyd-Mu… 15Boyd-MunceSmyth 5McMena… 5McMenaminO'Hara 24Gogic 1Tanser 19John 7Brown 3Olusanya 25van Veen 2Scott 1Mandron 13Kiltie 13Ayunga 63-5-2 in 13 of 30 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (13), 3-4-3 (9), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 19O'Hara 11Lyons 10Mayo 7Armstrong 4Mayo 17Wright 16Deas 13Findlay 9Ndaba 12Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 15Wright 3Murray 2Watson 13Lyons 8Murray 3Polworth 12Donnelly 7Ndaba 4Murray 11Kennedy 10Ndaba 3Watkins 20Wales 6Cameron 2Vassell 19Anderson 6Donnelly 24-4-2 in 14 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (14), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 January 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.98–0.26
14 September 2024St. Mirren2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–0.59
11 May 2024St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.85–1.44
16 March 2024Kilmarnock5–2St. MirrenxG 1.91–0.74
27 December 2023St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.46–0.81
30 September 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.73–0.79

13 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Kilmarnock won 6, and 6 were drawn. Goals 11–19 and xG 0.77–1.23 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya251,946820.430.03
Smyth5581400.310.13
Mandron131,302520.260.11
Ayunga6680110.230.09

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson9960800.790.06
Kennedy121,042410.170.31
Watkins211,813410.380.04
Vassell191,425210.320.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.