Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

St. Mirren 2–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 14 September 2024, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 5 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 6,957

St. Mirren Olusanya 7', O'Hara 41' (pen)

Kilmarnock Watkins 11', Ayunga 71' (og) · Wright sent off 45+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals22
xG1.530.59
Non-penalty xG0.740.59
Expected Points2.190.54

St. Mirren 64%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 9%

Most likely score 1–0, 22%. Final score 2–2, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+5%4%4%12%3%6%4%1%22%18%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTWright (Kilmarnock), red card 45+5'Ayunga on for Mandron, 20'Scott on for Olusanya, 46'Bwomono on for Taylor, 58'van Veen on for Idowu, 73'Adeniran on for Boyd-Munce, 74'Murray on for Kennedy, 85'Deas on for Ndaba and Cameron on for Vassell, 89'Olusanya 7'O'Hara 41' (pen)Watkins 11'Ayunga 71' (og)St. Mirren 1.53Kilmarnock 0.5900.511.520153045607590HTWright (Kilmarnock), red card 45+5'Ayunga on for Mandron, 20'Scott on for Olusanya, 46'Bwomono on for Taylor, 58'van Veen on for Idowu, 73'Adeniran on for Boyd-Munce, 74'Murray on for Kennedy, 85'Deas on for Ndaba and Cameron on for Vassell, 89'Olusanya 7'O'Hara 41' (pen)Watkins 11'Ayunga 71' (og)1.530.59St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.53 +0.53xG0.59 −0.64
0.74Non-penalty xG0.59
1.35 +0.27xG on target1.08 +0.51
14 +5.0Shots11 +1.0
2 −2.0Shots on target3 +0.8
1 −0.8Big chances1 −1.2
24 +7Touches in the opposition box18 0
50% +8Possession50% +12
328 +36Passes314 +44
80% +13Pass accuracy76% +15
58% +31Field tilt42% +9
42 +16Final-third entries36 +8
9 +0.8Box entries5 −2.0
13.0 −2Passes per defensive action14.8 −1
3 +0.8Corners10 +6.2
18 +2Tackles13 0
5 −3.8Interceptions2 −7.5
29 −2Clearances25 −8
2 −0.8Saves0 −3.8
15 +2Fouls9 −3
0 −2.5Offsides0 −1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Idowu 32', 0.14 xGRooney 37', 0.09 xGScott 48', 0.09 xGGogic 81', 0.09 xGO'Hara 69', 0.06 xGGogic 90+1', 0.06 xGFraser 76', 0.03 xGBoyd-Munce 37', 0.02 xGBrown 60', 0.02 xGAyunga 76', 0.02 xGAdeniran 88', 0.02 xGRooney 76', 0.01 xGOlusanya 7', 0.09 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals73%0.55 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.55 xG, 1 goal8%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals13%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals5%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Findlay 6', 0.04 xGArmstrong 11', 0.04 xGArmstrong 44', 0.04 xGFindlay 63', 0.04 xGPolworth 87', 0.03 xGArmstrong 2', 0.02 xGNdaba 11', 0.02 xGPolworth 30', 0.02 xGArmstrong 45+2', 0.02 xGNdaba 70', 0.02 xGWatkins 11', 0.31 xG, goal60%0.35 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.35 xG, 1 goal7%0.04 xGCentral box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals10%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals9%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals14%0.08 xGFurther out: 4 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.51 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.10 5 shots, 0 goals
0.23 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.49 6 shots, 1 goal
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
57 min (59%) · St. Mirren 1.36, Kilmarnock 0.15 xG
St. Mirren ahead
39 min (41%) · St. Mirren 0.17, Kilmarnock 0.44 xG

Line-ups

122135151961221920BalcombeFraserGogicTaylorBoyd-MunceRooneyO'HaraIdowuBrownMandronOlusanyaYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal58'74'73'20'46'St. Mirren 3-1-4-2Stephen Robinson12417311123110923O'HaraBurroughsWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonPolworthKennedyVassellWatkinsSent offYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal89'85'89'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 20' Ayunga for Mandron · own goal 71'
  • 46' Scott for Olusanya
  • 58' Bwomono for Taylor
  • 73' van Veen for Idowu
  • 74' Adeniran for Boyd-Munce

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 85' Murray for Kennedy
  • 89' Deas for Ndaba
  • 89' Cameron for Vassell

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BalcombeGK900.000.0100.0112
FraserCB900.030.1510.2947
GogicCB900.150.0000.1638
Taylor CB580.000.0000.0226
Boyd-MunceDM740.020.0600.0661
RooneyRWB900.100.0210.04710
O'HaraCM9010.850.0930.0131
IdowuCM730.140.0720.1438
BrownLWB9010.020.1230.2266
Mandron ST200.000.0000.0001
OlusanyaST4610.090.0000.0210
AyungaFW700.020.2200.1922
ScottFW440.090.011−0.1101
BwomonoMF320.000.0000.0111
van VeenFW170.000.020−0.0600
AdeniranMF160.020.0100.0221

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0101
BurroughsRB900.000.0110.0659
Wright CB450.000.0000.0112
FindlayCB900.080.0200.1049
Ndaba LB890.030.0300.1085
Armstrong RM9010.120.031−0.0573
WatsonCM900.000.0100.0118
Polworth CM900.040.1120.0782
KennedyLM850.000.1920.0962
VassellST890.000.010−0.0121
WatkinsST9010.310.0510.0122
MurrayMF50.000.0010.0100
DeasDF10.000.0000.0000
CameronFW10.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Findlay and Ndaba: 3 passesWatson and Kennedy: 3 passesBurroughs and Vassell: 4 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 5 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 5 passesPolworth and Kennedy: 5 passesPolworth and Vassell: 5 passesBurroughs and Armstrong: 8 passesFindlay and Polworth: 8 passesNdaba and Polworth: 8 passesWright and Findlay: 11 passesBurroughs and Wright: 12 passesO'Hara: 3 completed passesBurroughs: 16 completed passesWright: 15 completed passesFindlay: 15 completed passesNdaba: 21 completed passesArmstrong: 9 completed passesPolworth: 18 completed passesWatson: 3 completed passesKennedy: 7 completed passesWatkins: 4 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes12417311311210239O'HaraBurroughsWrightFindlayNdabaArmstrongPolworthWatsonKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 45+5' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
Boyd-MunceIdowu8
FraserO'Hara8
O'HaraFraser7
O'HaraRooney6
IdowuBoyd-Munce6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy13
NdabaPolworth11
BurroughsArmstrong10
NdabaVassell9
PolworthKennedy9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

3−1.88−1.013−2.87−2.06−1.012+4.26+0.24+0.27+0.57−2.813+5.55+2.23−1.25+1.54−2.25+2.07+4.52−0.22−1.22−3.21−0.52+0.50−0.80−0.50−2.01+1.00−0.52+0.20−1.00−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Kilmarnock

2−1.815−4.87+1.05−0.53−0.58−0.23−3.28+2.06−0.23−1.03−1.02−0.85+2.22−3.00−3.84+0.51−0.84−1.04−0.80−2.53+1.52+1.02+1.24+1.50−0.20−0.50−0.50−0.51+0.25−6.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 4 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.040.010.020.010.010.030.020.020.010.090.010.040.04−0.01−0.030.07−0.020.05−0.040.330.26LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.040.020.040.010.030.050.040.010.050.010.010.010.05−0.100.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.09 → 1.11Kilmarnock1.18 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.45 → 1.43Kilmarnock1.37 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six32%29%−3
11th12%12%0
Bottom10%10%0
Kilmarnock
Top six31%31%0
11th10%11%+1
Bottom8%8%0
Dundee United
Top six32%35%+3
11th12%11%−1
Bottom11%11%0

From the forecast before the match (14 September 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.321.16
Win40%32%
Expected Points1.471.24
Clean sheet31%27%

St. Mirren 40%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 51%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%2%7%3%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 September 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six32%41%29%22%
11th12%9%12%14%
Bottom10%6%10%14%
Kilmarnock
Top six31%24%31%41%
11th10%12%11%7%
Bottom8%10%8%4%
Dundee United
Top six32%31%35%31%
11th12%12%11%13%
Bottom11%12%11%11%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. D2–231 AugDundee FC (A)xG 1.34–1.76
  2. L0–325 AugCeltic (H)xG 0.15–2.46
  3. L1–311 AugAberdeen (A)xG 1.30–1.60
  4. W3–04 AugHibernian (H)xG 1.20–1.58
  5. L2–318 MayCeltic (A)xG 1.36–2.30
  6. D2–215 MayHearts (H)xG 1.72–0.83

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–11 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.54–0.44
  2. L0–225 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.66
  3. L0–311 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.74–1.79
  4. L0–44 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.20–3.11
  5. D1–118 MayDundee FC (A)xG 1.11–1.69
  6. L0–515 MayCeltic (H)xG 0.75–4.60

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position7th12th
Played44
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠1–⁠20–⁠1–⁠3
Points4 (1.00 per game)1 (0.25 per game)
Expected Points per game0.821.14
Goals6–⁠81–⁠10
xG per game1.00–⁠1.851.23–⁠1.75
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 0.67–⁠2.020.50, 2.14–⁠1.11
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.32–⁠1.680.00, 0.32–⁠2.38
ManagerStephen Robinson (37)Derek McInnes (80)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackSt. Mirren1.09, 9thKilmarnock1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.45, 8thKilmarnock1.37, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren attack: 1.09Kilmarnock attack: 1.181.181.09KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepSt. Mirren defence: 1.45Kilmarnock defence: 1.371.451.37

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−26%+45%−42%+32%
Counter-attacks+37%+20%−60%−68%
Set pieces−48%+4%+74%+6%
Penalties−57%−65%+55%+59%
Headers−33%+30%−18%−18%
Left side−41%+26%−31%−16%
Centre−20%+18%−13%+32%
Right side−17%+65%−4%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−41%+3%Centre−20%+32%Right side−17%−16%Open play−26%+32%Counter-attacks+37%−68%Set pieces−48%+6%Headers−33%−18%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−31%+65%Centre−13%+18%Right side−4%+26%Open play−42%+45%Counter-attacks−60%+20%Set pieces+74%+4%Headers−18%+30%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.00xG1.23
1.85xG against1.75
42%Possession38%
9.0Shots10.0
15.2Shots against16.2
4.0Shots on target2.2
1.8Big chances2.2
17.0Touches in the opposition box17.5
292Passes270
68%Pass accuracy62%
2.2Corners3.8
27%Field tilt33%
25.5Final-third entries28.2
8.2Box entries7.0
15.3Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level420.531.75
Ahead162.292.00
Behind320.961.91

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level231.041.56
Ahead0––
Behind671.291.82

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.250–1
16–300.110.351–1
31–450.450.302–2
46–600.090.261–2
61–750.150.450–1
76–900.120.252–1

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.230–1
16–300.070.240–2
31–450.100.470–2
46–600.040.270–2
61–750.280.230–1
76–900.520.321–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTBalcombe 4Fraser 4Gogic 3Iacovitti 2Taylor 3Rooney 4Phillips 2Adeniran 2Boyd-Mun… 3Boyd-MunceO'Hara 2Idowu 2Gogic 1Tanser 3Brown 1Olusanya 4Scott 1Ayunga 2Mandron 13-5-2 in every start

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTO'Hara 2McCrorie 2Lyons 2Armstrong 1Mayo 1Mayo 2Wright 1Findlay 4Deas 1Ndaba 1Lyons 1Deas 1Armstrong 2Wright 1Murray 1Polworth 2Donnelly 1Burroughs 1Watson 3Kennedy 3Murray 1Vassell 3Watkins 1Cameron 1Watson 1Anderson 1Donnelly 14-4-2 in 1 of 4 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 May 2024St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.85–1.44
16 March 2024Kilmarnock5–2St. MirrenxG 1.91–0.74
27 December 2023St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.46–0.81
30 September 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.73–0.79
22 April 2023St. Mirren0–2KilmarnockxG 0.51–2.32
2 January 2023Kilmarnock0–0St. MirrenxG 0.70–0.35

11 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 1, Kilmarnock won 5, and 5 were drawn. Goals 9–15 and xG 0.74–1.13 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya181,758810.350.06
Mandron242,215930.280.12
O'Hara282,498630.200.06
Tanser413,455240.050.14

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong403,3176100.220.27
Vassell352,778930.290.05
Watkins352,881930.260.05
Kennedy333,015330.150.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.