Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

St. Mirren 0–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 27 December 2025, 15:00 · The SMISA Stadium · Round 19 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 7,531

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Goals00
xG1.360.75
Expected Points1.810.88

St. Mirren 50%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 19%

Most likely score 1–0, 16%. Final score 0–0, 11%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+9%3%5%11%9%4%5%4%1%1%1%11%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTRichardson on for Idowu, 46'Mandron on for Ayunga, 56'Mooney on for Nlundulu, 77'Taylor on for McMenamin, 90+2'O'Hara on for Phillips, 90+3'Thomson on for Lowery, 62'Brannan on for John-Jules, 67'Dackers on for Anderson and Polworth on for Kiltie, 80'St. Mirren 1.36Kilmarnock 0.7500.511.50153045607590HTRichardson on for Idowu, 46'Mandron on for Ayunga, 56'Mooney on for Nlundulu, 77'Taylor on for McMenamin, 90+2'O'Hara on for Phillips, 90+3'Thomson on for Lowery, 62'Brannan on for John-Jules, 67'Dackers on for Anderson and Polworth on for Kiltie, 80'1.360.75St. MirrenKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.36 +0.18xG0.75 −0.45
1.67 +0.78xG on target1.08 −0.01
19 +7Shots11 0
7 +3.5Shots on target3 −0.8
1 −0.8Big chances0 −1.8
49 +25Touches in the opposition box17 −3
59% +15Possession41% +2
474 +137Passes341 +28
82% +10Pass accuracy79% +10
63% +16Field tilt37% −1
50 +12Final-third entries44 +15
17 +5.8Box entries12 +2.8
19.2 +2Passes per defensive action31.6 +16
11 +5.1Corners4 −0.3
12 0Tackles9 −7
4 −2.6Interceptions8 −0.9
27 −3Clearances49 +15
3 −0.1Saves7 +4.0
9 −3Fouls8 −5
2 +0.1Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

St. Mirren

Nlundulu 60', 0.19 xGMandron 61', 0.19 xGNlundulu 2', 0.12 xGGogic 42', 0.11 xGMandron 75', 0.11 xGAyunga 15', 0.10 xGRichardson 63', 0.09 xGAyunga 23', 0.06 xGMcMenamin 44', 0.06 xGMcMenamin 55', 0.06 xGGogic 89', 0.05 xGMcMenamin 76', 0.04 xGRichardson 81', 0.04 xGIdowu 9', 0.03 xGMcMenamin 45', 0.03 xGNlundulu 64', 0.03 xGNlundulu 11', 0.02 xGIdowu 12', 0.02 xGIdowu 33', 0.02 xG32%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals46%0.62 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals4%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 0 goals18%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

John-Jules 7', 0.23 xGKiltie 48', 0.10 xGLyons 31', 0.09 xGAnderson 79', 0.09 xGJohn-Jules 4', 0.07 xGKiltie 12', 0.04 xGWatson 72', 0.04 xGKiltie 20', 0.03 xGLyons 45+1', 0.03 xGMayo 17', 0.02 xGKiltie 45+1', 0.02 xG30%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.23 xG, 0 goals24%0.18 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals22%0.17 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals24%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

St. MirrenKilmarnock

0.88 13 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.38 7 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.12 2 shots, 0 goals
0.48 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.25 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
94 min (100%) · St. Mirren 1.36, Kilmarnock 0.75 xG

Line-ups

1225211310887241411GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonGogicMcMenaminPhillipsIdowuJohnNlunduluAyungaYellow card90+2'90+3'46'77'56'St. Mirren 3-1-4-2Stephen Robinson2015525312118182419OluwayemiBrownMayoSchilte-BrownThompsonWatsonKiltieLyonsLoweryJohn-JulesAnderson80'62'67'80'Kilmarnock 4-1-4-1Kris Doolan

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Richardson for Idowu
  • 56' Mandron for Ayunga
  • 77' Mooney for Nlundulu
  • 90+2' Taylor for McMenamin
  • 90+3' O'Hara for Phillips

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 62' Thomson for Lowery
  • 67' Brannan for John-Jules
  • 80' Polworth for Kiltie
  • 80' Dackers for Anderson

Players

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0331
FraserCB900.000.1400.10119
KingCB900.000.0800.1059
FreckletonCB900.000.2710.28126
GogicDM900.160.0620.1153
McMenaminRWB900.190.8410.2241
PhillipsCM900.000.0910.1165
Idowu CM460.070.0810.0512
JohnLWB900.000.4240.36124
NlunduluST770.360.2120.1222
AyungaST560.160.0000.0301
RichardsonMF440.120.3110.0310
MandronFW340.300.010−0.0202
MooneyMF130.000.010−0.0202
TaylorMF00.000.0000.0110
O'HaraMF00.000.0100.0100

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0000.0563
BrownRB900.000.0410.12126
MayoCB900.020.010−0.04312
Schilte-BrownCB900.000.0000.01019
ThompsonLB900.000.2520.21117
WatsonDM900.040.0210.0358
KiltieRM800.190.2710.1160
LyonsCM900.120.0200.0482
LoweryCM620.000.0200.0331
John-JulesLM670.300.0530.1657
AndersonST800.090.0210.0142
ThomsonMF280.000.0000.0234
BrannanDF230.000.0010.0011
PolworthMF100.000.0000.0000
DackersFW100.000.000−0.0300

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

St. Mirren

George and Fraser: 3 passesFreckleton and Fraser: 3 passesFreckleton and Phillips: 3 passesFraser and Ayunga: 3 passesGogic and Nlundulu: 3 passesMcMenamin and Phillips: 3 passesMcMenamin and Nlundulu: 3 passesKing and Phillips: 4 passesFreckleton and Idowu: 4 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 5 passesFraser and McMenamin: 5 passesFraser and Phillips: 5 passesGogic and Idowu: 5 passesGogic and Ayunga: 5 passesGeorge and King: 7 passesGogic and John: 7 passesKing and Fraser: 8 passesFraser and Gogic: 8 passesIdowu and John: 9 passesFreckleton and Gogic: 10 passesFreckleton and John: 10 passesKing and Freckleton: 17 passesGeorge: 10 completed passesKing: 23 completed passesFreckleton: 28 completed passesFraser: 21 completed passesGogic: 22 completed passesMcMenamin: 9 completed passesPhillips: 13 completed passesIdowu: 11 completed passesJohn: 16 completed passesAyunga: 6 completed passesNlundulu: 3 completed passes1521221310887241114GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserGogicMcMenaminPhillipsIdowuJohnAyungaNlunduluStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Brown and Lowery: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and Thompson: 4 passesWatson and Anderson: 4 passesMayo and Kiltie: 5 passesWatson and John-Jules: 5 passesLowery and Lyons: 5 passesOluwayemi and Schilte-Brown: 6 passesBrown and Watson: 6 passesThompson and Lowery: 6 passesThompson and Lyons: 6 passesKiltie and Lowery: 6 passesLowery and John-Jules: 6 passesLyons and Anderson: 6 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 7 passesMayo and Lyons: 7 passesWatson and Kiltie: 7 passesThompson and John-Jules: 8 passesOluwayemi and Mayo: 9 passesBrown and Mayo: 9 passesBrown and Lyons: 10 passesLyons and John-Jules: 11 passesBrown and Kiltie: 13 passesOluwayemi: 18 completed passesBrown: 28 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 15 completed passesMayo: 19 completed passesThompson: 21 completed passesWatson: 13 completed passesKiltie: 15 completed passesLowery: 17 completed passesLyons: 29 completed passesJohn-Jules: 14 completed passesAnderson: 10 completed passes2015255312111882419OluwayemiBrownSchilte-BrownMayoThompsonWatsonKiltieLoweryLyonsJohn-JulesAndersonStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FreckletonKing18
FraserGogic17
FreckletonJohn16
KingFreckleton16
KingFraser15

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
OluwayemiMayo12
LyonsBrown10
MayoBrown10
BrownKiltie9
Schilte-BrownLyons7

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

St. Mirren

2−2.48+0.418+1.07+0.49+4.310+4.27−0.63−3.14−3.17+1.62−2.93−1.02−1.14+0.46+2.42−1.71−2.12−0.95+2.95+1.92−0.71−1.10−1.60−1.61−1.90−0.90−0.52+0.90−0.10−0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Kilmarnock

60.013+4.324+7.610+3.77+2.811+3.76−0.810+2.95−3.010+4.62−3.64−1.36+2.66+1.14−1.00−4.21−3.22−0.63+0.22−1.70−2.81−1.10−1.71−0.91−0.710.00−0.62+1.10−0.41+0.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 18 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

St. Mirren

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.020.010.040.040.020.020.040.040.060.010.150.050.040.030.030.08−0.010.10−0.050.380.34LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.030.020.040.010.030.020.070.020.060.020.010.020.040.050.030.050.030.01−0.020.030.01−0.02−0.100.050.010.100.12LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackSt. Mirren1.19 → 1.19Kilmarnock1.11 → 1.10Defence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.35 → 1.33Kilmarnock1.55 → 1.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
St. Mirren
Top six17%13%−4
11th3%3%0
Bottom1%1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%0
11th27%27%0
Bottom18%17%−1
Falkirk
Top six31%32%+1
11th2%2%0
Dundee FC
11th35%34%−1
Bottom34%35%+1

From the forecast before the match (27 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Expected goals1.631.01
Win51%23%
Expected Points1.800.94
Clean sheet36%19%

St. Mirren 51%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 52%.

Kilmarnock goalsSt. Mirren goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%2%2%1%11%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowSt. Mirren winDrawKilmarnock win
St. Mirren
Top six17%22%13%9%
11th3%2%3%5%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%<1%1%
11th27%29%27%21%
Bottom18%21%17%11%
Falkirk
Top six31%30%32%35%
11th2%2%2%3%
Dundee FC
11th35%34%34%36%
Bottom34%32%35%37%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

St. Mirren

  1. W1–020 DecLivingston (H)xG 2.23–0.24
  2. W2–06 DecDundee United (H)xG 1.24–1.01
  3. D3–33 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.83–2.08
  4. L1–329 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.39–0.68
  5. L0–122 NovCeltic (H)xG 1.53–0.88
  6. L0–38 NovHibernian (H)xG 0.78–1.62

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–120 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.19–1.46
  2. L1–214 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.02–3.76
  3. L0–36 DecRangers (H)xG 0.66–0.75
  4. D1–13 DecHearts (A)xG 1.80–2.19
  5. D1–129 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.11–1.86
  6. L1–322 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.73–2.24

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

St. MirrenKilmarnock
Position9th11th
Played1618
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠5–⁠72–⁠6–⁠10
Points17 (1.06 per game)12 (0.67 per game)
Expected Points per game1.251.01
Goals15–⁠2217–⁠33
xG per game1.18–⁠1.361.20–⁠1.84
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.15–⁠1.120.60, 1.33–⁠1.51
Away: points, xG per game0.71, 1.23–⁠1.660.75, 1.04–⁠2.25
ManagerStephen Robinson (87)Kris Doolan (1)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackSt. Mirren1.19, 7thKilmarnock1.11, 9thDefence (lower is better)St. Mirren1.35, 6thKilmarnock1.55, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Mirren attack: 1.19Kilmarnock attack: 1.111.191.11KilmarnockSt. MirrenDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecSt. Mirren defence: 1.35Kilmarnock defence: 1.551.551.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

St. MirrenKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−24%−4%−29%+20%
Counter-attacks−38%+96%+37%+20%
Set pieces+36%−16%+20%+29%
Penalties−62%−62%−66%+136%
Headers+17%+11%−5%+14%
Left side−21%average−48%+25%
Centre−4%+13%+17%+34%
Right side−7%−9%−17%−3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−21%−3%Centre−4%+34%Right side−7%+25%Open play−24%+20%Counter-attacks−38%+20%Set pieces+36%+29%Headers+17%+14%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−48%−9%Centre+17%+13%Right side−17%averageOpen play−29%−4%Counter-attacks+37%+96%Set pieces+20%−16%Headers−5%+11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

St. MirrenKilmarnock

1.18xG1.20
1.36xG against1.84
44%Possession39%
12.3Shots10.8
12.8Shots against13.8
3.5Shots on target3.8
1.8Big chances1.8
23.8Touches in the opposition box19.8
337Passes313
72%Pass accuracy70%
5.9Corners4.3
47%Field tilt38%
37.5Final-third entries29.3
11.2Box entries9.2
17.5Passes per defensive action15.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level601.281.27
Ahead180.891.62
Behind131.111.38

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.271.61
Ahead161.082.69
Behind361.181.70

xG by period

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.140–0
16–300.220.154–3
31–450.160.262–4
46–600.170.152–1
61–750.180.354–4
76–900.250.313–10

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.250–3
16–300.190.264–7
31–450.350.256–3
46–600.160.313–7
61–750.130.341–6
76–900.320.433–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 16Fraser 14Gogic 12King 7Freckleton 15Richards… 12RichardsonMcMena… 4McMenaminPhillips 16Baccus 11Taylor 3Donnelly 3O'Hara 8McMena… 2McMenaminIdowu 2John 15Tanser 1Ayunga 9Nlundulu 6Idowu 3Mandron 143-5-2 in 13 of 16 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (13), 5-3-2 (3)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 8Stryjek 7Beach 3Brown 11Brandon 4Brannan 3Stanger 11Schilte-B… 4Schilte-BrownLyons 1Mayo 15Polworth 1Kiltie 1Deas 17Williams 3Thompson 15Brannan 3Watson 16McKenzie 3Anderson 2Polworth 11Thomson 1Lyons 10Kiltie 5Lowery 5Dackers 10Tiffoney 4Daniels 4Anderson 10Kiltie 45-3-2 in 4 of 18 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29
2 January 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.98–0.26
14 September 2024St. Mirren2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–0.59
11 May 2024St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.85–1.44
16 March 2024Kilmarnock5–2St. MirrenxG 1.91–0.74

15 league meetings since 2020/21: St. Mirren won 2, Kilmarnock won 7, and 6 were drawn. Goals 16–22 and xG 0.81–1.30 per game.

Key players

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin6596110.270.28
Ayunga9860200.360.03
Nlundulu7646200.320.05
Mandron141,149320.210.11

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson121,036310.380.05
Dackers111,022100.300.11
Tiffoney5501110.210.10
Kiltie10882020.050.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.