Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 2–0 Livingston

Saturday 21 March 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 31 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Ryan Lee · Attendance 5,703

Kilmarnock Hugill 26', Curtis 77'

Livingston Kabongolo sent off 87'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockLivingston
Goals20
xG1.710.79
Expected Points2.100.65

Kilmarnock 62%Draw 25%Livingston 13%

Most likely score 1–0, 15%. Final score 2–0, 14%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%4%1%5%1%5%1%7%6%2%2%2%15%15%14%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTKabongolo (Livingston), red card 87'Watson on for Watkins and Lyons on for Tshibola, 56'Thompson on for Schjønning-Larsen and Lowery on for Polworth, 67'McKenzie on for Kiltie, 79'McKay on for Muirhead and L. Smith on for Tait, 63'Bokila on for Nouble and Danso on for Pittman, 72'Arfield on for Wilson, 73'Hugill 26'Curtis 77'Kilmarnock 1.71Livingston 0.7900.511.520153045607590HTKabongolo (Livingston), red card 87'Watson on for Watkins and Lyons on for Tshibola, 56'Thompson on for Schjønning-Larsen and Lowery on for Polworth, 67'McKenzie on for Kiltie, 79'McKay on for Muirhead and L. Smith on for Tait, 63'Bokila on for Nouble and Danso on for Pittman, 72'Arfield on for Wilson, 73'Hugill 26'Curtis 77'1.710.79KilmarnockLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

1.71 +0.51xG0.79 −0.17
1.63 +0.45xG on target0.51 −0.49
17 +6.1Shots10 +0.6
4 +0.2Shots on target1 −2.3
3 +1.2Big chances0 −1.4
31 +11Touches in the opposition box15 −4
42% +1Possession58% +14
357 +26Passes508 +151
76% +5Pass accuracy81% +8
56% +17Field tilt44% +7
37 +5Final-third entries34 +3
15 +5.4Box entries9 +0.8
12.2 −3Passes per defensive action16.5 +3
3 −1.3Corners4 −0.4
20 +4Tackles17 0
10 +1.7Interceptions11 +2.4
32 −3Clearances19 −16
1 −2.8Saves2 −1.2
14 +1Fouls7 −7
1 −0.8Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Hugill 1', 0.23 xGCurtis 30', 0.09 xGKiltie 12', 0.08 xGHugill 20', 0.07 xGBrandon 68', 0.07 xGPolworth 17', 0.05 xGBrandon 72', 0.04 xGCurtis 28', 0.03 xGTshibola 23', 0.02 xGTshibola 23', 0.02 xGTshibola 25', 0.02 xGLyons 70', 0.02 xGWatkins 13', 0.01 xGPolworth 16', 0.01 xGCurtis 16', 0.01 xGCurtis 77', 0.69 xG, goalHugill 25', 0.26 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%1.42 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.42 xG, 2 goals10%0.17 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals5%0.08 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Kabongolo 9', 0.17 xGKerr 45', 0.15 xGKabongolo 54', 0.14 xGMontaño 6', 0.11 xGMontaño 35', 0.06 xGMuirhead 45+2', 0.05 xGMuirhead 33', 0.04 xGMontaño 60', 0.03 xGFinlayson 66', 0.03 xGL. Smith 76', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals62%0.49 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.49 xG, 0 goals13%0.10 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals18%0.14 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals8%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.79 12 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.28 3 shots, 0 goals
0.76 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.16 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.51 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
26 min (28%) · Kilmarnock 0.78, Livingston 0.27 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
66 min (72%) · Kilmarnock 0.93, Livingston 0.52 xG

Line-ups

13214621363152112344RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaPolworthCurtisKiltieWatkinsHugillGoalGoal67'56'67'79'56'Kilmarnock 4-1-2-1-2Neil McCann282327192248252697PriorKabongoloWilsonFinlaysonKerrSyllaPittmanTaitMontañoMuirheadNoubleSent offYellow card73'72'63'63'72'Livingston 3-5-2Marvin Bartley

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 56' Lyons for Tshibola
  • 56' Watson for Watkins
  • 67' Thompson for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 67' Lowery for Polworth
  • 79' McKenzie for Kiltie

Livingston substitutes

  • 63' McKay for Muirhead
  • 63' L. Smith for Tait
  • 72' Danso for Pittman
  • 72' Bokila for Nouble
  • 73' Arfield for Wilson

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0111
BrandonRB900.110.0910.1885
StangerCB900.000.0000.02211
DeasCB900.000.0100.05713
Schjønning-LarsenLB670.000.0200.0532
TshibolaDM560.050.0620.0314
PolworthCM670.070.0200.0442
CurtisCM9010.810.1720.1465
KiltieAM790.080.4020.2679
WatkinsST5610.010.1610.1522
HugillST90110.560.3920.1841
LyonsMF340.020.0110.0032
WatsonMF340.000.0000.0103
ThompsonDF230.000.0110.0321
LoweryMF230.000.0000.0112
McKenzieMF110.000.000−0.0100

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0000.0440
Kabongolo CB870.300.0200.0683
WilsonCB730.000.0100.0545
FinlaysonCB900.030.0100.05710
KerrRWB900.150.0100.0237
SyllaCM900.000.0100.01711
PittmanCM720.000.0200.0133
TaitCM630.000.010−0.0233
Montaño LWB900.190.1710.35133
MuirheadST630.090.0510.0742
NoubleST720.000.6720.3140
McKayMF270.000.0610.0120
L. SmithFW270.020.0000.0013
DansoMF180.000.0010.0122
BokilaFW180.000.0000.0001
ArfieldMF170.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stanger and Deas: 3 passesStanger and Polworth: 3 passesDeas and Hugill: 3 passesTshibola and Hugill: 3 passesCurtis and Kiltie: 3 passesKiltie and Watkins: 3 passesHugill and Watkins: 3 passesDeas and Tshibola: 4 passesTshibola and Kiltie: 4 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Kiltie: 6 passesKiltie and Hugill: 6 passesStanger and Tshibola: 7 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 7 passesRoos and Deas: 8 passesBrandon and Tshibola: 8 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Curtis: 8 passesBrandon and Kiltie: 9 passesTshibola and Curtis: 9 passesTshibola and Polworth: 10 passesDeas and Schjønning-Larsen: 11 passesPolworth and Kiltie: 12 passesBrandon and Stanger: 13 passesRoos and Stanger: 14 passesBrandon and Polworth: 27 passesRoos: 16 completed passesBrandon: 35 completed passesStanger: 24 completed passesDeas: 17 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 22 completed passesTshibola: 26 completed passesCurtis: 11 completed passesPolworth: 32 completed passesKiltie: 17 completed passesHugill: 6 completed passesWatkins: 6 completed passes13214621365231114423RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenTshibolaCurtisPolworthKiltieHugillWatkinsStarters until 56' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Livingston

Prior and Montaño: 5 passesPrior and Pittman: 5 passesWilson and Nouble: 5 passesFinlayson and Tait: 5 passesKabongolo and Sylla: 5 passesKabongolo and Pittman: 5 passesKerr and Nouble: 5 passesMontaño and Pittman: 5 passesTait and Muirhead: 5 passesFinlayson and Sylla: 6 passesMontaño and Nouble: 6 passesPrior and Finlayson: 7 passesMontaño and Tait: 7 passesPrior and Kabongolo: 8 passesWilson and Sylla: 8 passesKerr and Muirhead: 8 passesWilson and Tait: 9 passesKabongolo and Nouble: 9 passesMontaño and Muirhead: 9 passesNouble and Muirhead: 9 passesKabongolo and Kerr: 11 passesFinlayson and Montaño: 12 passesPrior and Wilson: 16 passesWilson and Kabongolo: 16 passesWilson and Finlayson: 17 passesPrior: 31 completed passesWilson: 38 completed passesFinlayson: 28 completed passesKabongolo: 30 completed passesKerr: 18 completed passesMontaño: 21 completed passesSylla: 23 completed passesPittman: 19 completed passesTait: 18 completed passesNouble: 20 completed passesMuirhead: 21 completed passes282719232262482579PriorWilsonFinlaysonKabongoloKerrMontañoSyllaPittmanTaitNoubleMuirheadStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
PolworthBrandon14
BrandonPolworth13
StangerRoos10
StangerBrandon8
RoosStanger8

Livingston

FromToPasses
FinlaysonMontaño13
PriorWilson12
KabongoloWilson11
PriorFinlayson10
FinlaysonWilson9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.010+1.012−5.58+0.81−3.33−4.29+1.94−2.86−2.07+1.012+7.06+1.02−1.49+3.95+0.24+0.69+5.21−1.63−0.24+0.34+1.51−0.91−0.52+0.23+1.010.00−0.82+1.10−0.30−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Livingston

2−3.28−0.23−4.64−1.97+0.37−1.15−1.51−6.716+8.35+0.45+0.25+1.03−2.610+4.06+2.30−4.13+0.55+1.53−0.93+0.42+0.20−1.30−1.81−1.50−1.30−0.30−0.70−0.50−1.08−10.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 30 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.050.020.010.040.010.110.010.010.040.050.14−0.070.090.040.170.200.17LessMore

Livingston

0.010.030.010.030.030.030.030.020.020.020.040.060.010.010.020.030.03−0.030.01−0.010.04−0.020.050.210.150.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackKilmarnock1.09 → 1.12Livingston0.90 → 0.89Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.66 → 1.61Livingston1.85 → 1.85

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th48%41%−7
Bottom4%1%−3
Livingston
11th5%2%−3
Bottom94%98%+4
St. Mirren
11th41%48%+7
Bottom2%1%−1

From the forecast before the match (21 March 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockLivingston
Expected goals1.801.00
Win56%20%
Expected Points1.910.85
Clean sheet37%17%

Kilmarnock 56%Draw 24%Livingston 20%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%1%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 March 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawLivingston win
Kilmarnock
11th48%41%54%56%
Bottom4%1%3%13%
Livingston
11th5%2%4%14%
Bottom94%98%95%83%
St. Mirren
11th41%48%36%26%
Bottom2%1%2%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W1–014 MarHearts (H)xG 1.27–1.06
  2. L1–528 FebFalkirk (A)xG 0.39–3.14
  3. D1–121 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.50–2.05
  4. L2–315 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.86–2.98
  5. W4–311 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.76–1.96
  6. L1–54 FebRangers (A)xG 1.39–3.14

Livingston

  1. D0–014 MarHibernian (A)xG 0.14–2.18
  2. D1–128 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.70–1.02
  3. D2–222 FebRangers (H)xG 0.30–3.74
  4. D2–214 FebDundee FC (A)xG 1.29–0.91
  5. L1–211 FebCeltic (A)xG 1.06–3.44
  6. L1–24 FebFalkirk (H)xG 0.57–2.40

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockLivingston
Position11th12th
Played3030
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠9–⁠161–⁠12–⁠17
Points24 (0.80 per game)15 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game0.960.79
Goals33–⁠6031–⁠59
xG per game1.20–⁠1.960.96–⁠2.01
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.41–⁠1.660.60, 1.01–⁠1.85
Away: points, xG per game0.60, 0.98–⁠2.260.40, 0.92–⁠2.17
ManagerNeil McCann (8)Marvin Bartley (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackKilmarnock1.09, 9thLivingston0.90, 12thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.66, 11thLivingston1.85, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock attack: 1.09Livingston attack: 0.901.090.90LivingstonKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarKilmarnock defence: 1.66Livingston defence: 1.851.851.66

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−18%+32%−40%+42%
Counter-attacks+12%+10%−57%+21%
Set pieces−2%+34%−27%+41%
Penalties−78%+122%+33%+56%
Headers−8%+7%−40%+32%
Left side−45%+32%−46%+26%
Centre+7%+37%−38%+40%
Right side−13%+16%−31%+52%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−45%+52%Centre+7%+40%Right side−13%+26%Open play−18%+42%Counter-attacks+12%+21%Set pieces−2%+41%Headers−8%+32%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−46%+16%Centre−38%+37%Right side−31%+32%Open play−40%+32%Counter-attacks−57%+10%Set pieces−27%+34%Headers−40%+7%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockLivingston

1.20xG0.96
1.96xG against2.01
41%Possession44%
10.9Shots9.4
15.5Shots against15.3
3.8Shots on target3.3
1.8Big chances1.4
19.8Touches in the opposition box19.1
330Passes357
71%Pass accuracy73%
4.3Corners4.4
39%Field tilt37%
32.0Final-third entries30.8
9.6Box entries8.2
15.6Passes per defensive action13.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.241.75
Ahead171.192.54
Behind351.151.90

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.902.06
Ahead100.863.11
Behind371.071.65

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.262–7
16–300.180.297–9
31–450.290.3110–6
46–600.130.345–14
61–750.180.342–11
76–900.310.437–13

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.394–12
16–300.160.266–7
31–450.240.415–9
46–600.120.334–7
61–750.160.244–6
76–900.200.388–18

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 8Stryjek 7Brown 13Schjønnin… 7Schjønning-LarsenBrandon 5Schilte… 15Schilte-BrownStanger 12Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 7Watson 3Deas 27Williams 3Thomps… 25ThompsonBrannan 3Curtis 1Watson 23McKenzie 3Curtis 2Lyons 20Tshibola 2Thomson 2Polworth 17Kiltie 9Lowery 8Anderson 18Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Kiltie 4Hugill 45-3-2 in 6 of 30 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 4-4-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWPrior 30Finlayson 13Brenet 9Lawal 5McGowan 18Finlayson 11Sylla 2Wilson 23Kabongolo 3Blaney 3Montaño 14Montgomery 8Fati 3Pittman 25Danso 4Wilson 1Sylla 15L. Smith 2May 1Tait 25Susoho 13Carey 1L. Smith 13Kabongolo 4McLennan 4Muirhead 10Bokila 8Yengi 7May 13McLennan 4Yengi 44-3-3 in 11 of 30 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-5-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
10 January 2026Livingston1–1KilmarnockxG 1.30–1.69
2 August 2025Kilmarnock2–2LivingstonxG 0.91–1.83
7 February 2024Kilmarnock1–0LivingstonxG 0.75–0.72
16 December 2023Livingston0–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
21 October 2023Kilmarnock3–1LivingstonxG 1.21–1.13
13 May 2023Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.75–0.32

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Livingston won 5, and 3 were drawn. Goals 16–16 and xG 1.13–1.14 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Anderson201,662420.330.04
Kiltie201,661440.150.21

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead141,249420.440.16
Yengi111,054200.300.08
McLennan8766300.260.08
Bokila9883500.300.02

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.