Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 2–0 St. Mirren

Thursday 2 January 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 21 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 6,603

Kilmarnock Anderson 8', 65' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals20
xG2.980.26
Non-penalty xG1.400.26
Expected Points2.930.04

Kilmarnock 97%Draw 3%St. Mirren <1%

Most likely score 3–0, 28%. Final score 2–0, 19%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%2%19%5%8%18%5%5%1%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTMagennis on for Vassell, 44'Donnelly on for Polworth, 73'Cameron on for Wales, 74'Watson on for Anderson, 84'O'Hara on for Smyth, 46'Mandron on for Idowu, 54'Oseni on for Ayunga and Bwomono on for Gogic, 66'Kiltie on for Olusanya, 74'Anderson 8'Anderson 65' (pen)Kilmarnock 2.98St. Mirren 0.26012340153045607590HTMagennis on for Vassell, 44'Donnelly on for Polworth, 73'Cameron on for Wales, 74'Watson on for Anderson, 84'O'Hara on for Smyth, 46'Mandron on for Idowu, 54'Oseni on for Ayunga and Bwomono on for Gogic, 66'Kiltie on for Olusanya, 74'Anderson 8'Anderson 65' (pen)2.980.26KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

2.98 +1.62xG0.26 −0.89
1.40Non-penalty xG0.26
2.49 +1.35xG on target0.01 −1.22
14 +1Shots8 −3
5 +1.4Shots on target1 −2.9
4 +2.0Big chances0 −1.9
26 +6Touches in the opposition box16 −4
47% +4Possession53% +10
304 −3Passes340 +41
70% +4Pass accuracy66% +2
53% +11Field tilt47% +6
32 +1Final-third entries32 +1
10 +0.3Box entries4 −5.1
17.2 +2Passes per defensive action8.3 −7
4 −1.5Corners2 −2.7
12 −2Tackles18 +2
10 +0.9Interceptions4 −4.7
53 +19Clearances27 −1
1 −2.1Saves3 +0.8
9 −1Fouls21 +9
4 +2.9Offsides5 +3.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Cameron 83', 0.38 xGLyons 47', 0.10 xGWales 14', 0.07 xGNdaba 37', 0.06 xGPolworth 45+3', 0.06 xGCameron 79', 0.03 xGWright 32', 0.02 xGLyons 89', 0.02 xGLyons 31', 0.01 xGVassell 35', 0.01 xGPolworth 43', 0.01 xGAnderson 8', 0.62 xG, goal45%0.62 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.62 xG, 1 goal50%0.69 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.69 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Olusanya 9', 0.08 xGAyunga 28', 0.03 xGIdowu 33', 0.03 xGO'Hara 72', 0.03 xGKiltie 90+1', 0.03 xGMandron 61', 0.02 xGPhillips 69', 0.02 xGTaylor 54', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals58%0.15 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals35%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals8%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

0.30 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.19 5 shots, 0 goals
0.38 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.72 5 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.07 3 shots, 0 goals
1.58 2 shots, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
8 min (9%) · Kilmarnock 1.41, St. Mirren 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
86 min (91%) · Kilmarnock 1.57, St. Mirren 0.26 xG

Line-ups

2045615831319249McCrorieWrightMayoDeasMurrayLyonsPolworthNdabaAndersonWalesVassellGoalGoal73'84'74'44'Kilmarnock 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes1413522888312720BalcombeIacovittiGogicTaylorFraserPhillipsSmythTanserIdowuAyungaOlusanyaYellow cardYellow card66'46'54'66'74'St. Mirren 3-4-2-1Stephen Robinson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 44' Magennis for Vassell
  • 73' Donnelly for Polworth
  • 74' Cameron for Wales
  • 84' Watson for Anderson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' O'Hara for Smyth
  • 54' Mandron for Idowu
  • 66' Bwomono for Gogic
  • 66' Oseni for Ayunga
  • 74' Kiltie for Olusanya

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0331
WrightCB900.020.0000.01123
MayoCB900.000.0100.0348
DeasCB900.000.0100.06712
MurrayRWB900.000.1340.2874
LyonsCM900.140.0100.0147
PolworthCM730.070.0510.1335
NdabaLWB900.060.0410.06310
AndersonAM8422.200.0400.0430
WalesAM740.070.0210.0223
VassellST440.010.0200.0322
MagennisMF460.000.0120.0004
DonnellyMF170.000.0000.0002
CameronFW160.410.0100.0120
WatsonMF60.000.0000.0000

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BalcombeGK900.000.0000.0762
IacovittiCB900.000.0000.0329
Gogic CB660.000.0200.1123
Taylor CB900.010.0300.14813
FraserRWB900.000.0210.0656
PhillipsCM900.020.0410.0445
SmythCM460.000.0110.0215
TanserLWB900.000.1420.0318
IdowuAM540.030.0710.2253
AyungaAM660.030.0100.0210
OlusanyaST740.080.000−0.0200
O'HaraMF440.030.0200.0310
MandronFW360.020.020−0.0511
BwomonoMF240.000.0000.0240
OseniFW240.000.0000.0020
KiltieFW160.030.0100.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McCrorie and Mayo: 3 passesMayo and Polworth: 3 passesWright and Murray: 3 passesDeas and Anderson: 3 passesLyons and Vassell: 3 passesWales and Anderson: 3 passesNdaba and Wales: 4 passesMurray and Vassell: 4 passesDeas and Ndaba: 5 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 6 passesMayo and Murray: 6 passesDeas and Polworth: 6 passesPolworth and Lyons: 7 passesMurray and Polworth: 8 passesMurray and Lyons: 8 passesMayo and Lyons: 11 passesNdaba and Polworth: 11 passesMcCrorie: 7 completed passesMayo: 17 completed passesWright: 5 completed passesDeas: 16 completed passesNdaba: 15 completed passesMurray: 15 completed passesPolworth: 22 completed passesLyons: 16 completed passesWales: 6 completed passesAnderson: 3 completed passesVassell: 7 completed passes2054631531824199McCrorieMayoWrightDeasNdabaMurrayPolworthLyonsWalesAndersonVassellStarters until 44' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

Balcombe and Taylor: 3 passesBalcombe and Tanser: 3 passesGogic and Fraser: 3 passesGogic and Ayunga: 3 passesGogic and Olusanya: 3 passesTaylor and Smyth: 3 passesTaylor and Idowu: 3 passesFraser and Idowu: 3 passesPhillips and Ayunga: 3 passesIdowu and Olusanya: 3 passesTaylor and Tanser: 4 passesSmyth and Ayunga: 4 passesSmyth and Idowu: 5 passesBalcombe: 6 completed passesGogic: 10 completed passesTaylor: 12 completed passesIacovitti: 4 completed passesFraser: 6 completed passesTanser: 6 completed passesPhillips: 8 completed passesSmyth: 12 completed passesIdowu: 7 completed passesAyunga: 6 completed passesOlusanya: 3 completed passes1135422388812720BalcombeGogicTaylorIacovittiFraserTanserPhillipsSmythIdowuAyungaOlusanyaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsMayo9
PolworthNdaba8
MayoLyons7
PolworthLyons7
NdabaMurray7

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
TaylorTanser10
IacovittiTaylor8
TanserTaylor6
O'HaraIacovitti6
FraserPhillips6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+0.87−1.318+0.910+2.44−1.910+4.711+3.78+1.310+4.04−1.28+4.67+4.05+0.29+4.33−0.53−0.54+1.71−2.46+1.82+0.10−1.60−0.81−0.12−0.51+0.30−0.61+0.20−0.40−0.82−4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

St. Mirren

8+3.35−1.414+0.46−1.46+0.75−1.84−2.511+6.210+3.38−1.25−0.87+3.07+3.21−3.54−2.33−1.02−1.630.05+2.25+0.70−2.61−0.63+1.91+0.12−0.10−0.51+0.64+3.01+0.70−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.020.030.020.010.010.010.010.040.070.010.010.070.03−0.02−0.010.020.040.08−0.010.19LessMore

St. Mirren

0.050.020.010.010.010.020.030.040.030.030.060.030.010.040.040.100.03−0.020.020.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.21 → 1.25St. Mirren1.12 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39 → 1.34St. Mirren1.43 → 1.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six24%34%+10
11th6%4%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six43%33%−10
11th4%5%+1
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (2 January 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.541.05
Win48%25%
Expected Points1.711.03
Clean sheet35%22%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 27%St. Mirren 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%1%6%2%9%5%2%5%5%2%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 January 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six24%34%18%12%
11th6%4%7%9%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
St. Mirren
Top six43%33%45%62%
11th4%5%3%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–129 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.25–2.32
  2. W4–026 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.02–0.50
  3. D1–120 DecMotherwell (A)xG 1.03–0.76
  4. W1–015 DecHearts (H)xG 1.57–1.15
  5. D1–17 DecDundee United (A)xG 1.62–2.38
  6. L0–64 DecRangers (A)xG 0.09–4.60

St. Mirren

  1. L1–229 DecDundee FC (H)xG 1.02–1.00
  2. W2–126 DecRangers (H)xG 1.07–1.52
  3. W2–121 DecRoss County (A)xG 1.10–1.24
  4. W3–214 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 2.08–0.79
  5. L0–17 DecMotherwell (H)xG 0.55–1.74
  6. L0–230 NovDundee United (A)xG 0.35–3.22

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position9th5th
Played2020
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠6–⁠98–⁠3–⁠9
Points21 (1.05 per game)27 (1.35 per game)
Expected Points per game1.251.18
Goals23–⁠3627–⁠32
xG per game1.36–⁠1.611.15–⁠1.50
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 2.04–⁠1.331.55, 1.05–⁠1.19
Away: points, xG per game0.75, 0.91–⁠1.791.11, 1.28–⁠1.89
ManagerDerek McInnes (96)Stephen Robinson (53)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.21, 6thSt. Mirren1.12, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39, 6thSt. Mirren1.43, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock attack: 1.21St. Mirren attack: 1.121.211.12St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecKilmarnock defence: 1.39St. Mirren defence: 1.431.431.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+10%−31%−13%
Counter-attacks−38%−8%−28%−4%
Set pieces+26%+31%−18%+30%
Penalties−6%−6%+57%+57%
Headers−3%+6%−19%−4%
Left side+15%−2%−36%−11%
Centre−8%+25%−30%−5%
Right side−15%+6%−13%+26%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+15%+26%Centre−8%−5%Right side−15%−11%Open play−15%−13%Counter-attacks−38%−4%Set pieces+26%+30%Headers−3%−4%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−36%+6%Centre−30%+25%Right side−13%−2%Open play−31%+10%Counter-attacks−28%−8%Set pieces−18%+31%Headers−19%+6%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.36xG1.15
1.61xG against1.50
43%Possession43%
12.7Shots11.4
14.1Shots against12.2
3.6Shots on target3.9
2.0Big chances1.9
20.1Touches in the opposition box19.8
307Passes299
67%Pass accuracy65%
5.5Corners4.7
42%Field tilt41%
31.0Final-third entries31.3
9.7Box entries9.1
15.5Passes per defensive action15.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.361.61
Ahead131.671.60
Behind341.241.61

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level511.161.25
Ahead201.091.87
Behind191.221.78

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.261–2
16–300.210.243–6
31–450.170.272–7
46–600.190.284–6
61–750.250.274–6
76–900.370.299–9

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.214–5
16–300.180.187–4
31–450.360.176–3
46–600.190.182–6
61–750.110.270–6
76–900.190.498–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 15O'Hara 5Lyons 5Mayo 5Armstrong 4Mayo 10Wright 8Deas 9Findlay 9Ndaba 4Ndaba 9Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 11Wright 3Murray 2Polworth 8Lyons 6Murray 2Watson 11Donnelly 6Mayo 1Kennedy 10Murray 4Ndaba 2Vassell 18Wales 2Cameron 1Watkins 12Anderson 4Watson 14-4-2 in 10 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-3 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWBalcombe 20Fraser 18Phillips 2Gogic 17Iacovitti 5Taylor 14Dunne 4Bwomono 12Rooney 6Fraser 2Phillips 15Smyth 2Boyd-Munce 2O'Hara 13Idowu 5Gogic 1Tanser 14Brown 3Smyth 2McMenamin 5Boyd-Munce 5Scott 3Olusanya 14Mandron 3van Veen 2Kiltie 11Olusanya 4Mandron 33-4-3 in 9 of 20 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (9), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
14 September 2024St. Mirren2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–0.59
11 May 2024St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.85–1.44
16 March 2024Kilmarnock5–2St. MirrenxG 1.91–0.74
27 December 2023St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.46–0.81
30 September 2023Kilmarnock1–1St. MirrenxG 0.73–0.79
22 April 2023St. Mirren0–2KilmarnockxG 0.51–2.32

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 5, St. Mirren won 1, and 6 were drawn. Goals 17–11 and xG 1.09–0.81 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson6615600.710.08
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins131,075300.380.04
Vassell181,381210.330.09

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Olusanya181,317600.360.01
McMenamin5460200.240.05
O'Hara151,324220.130.14
Idowu7719200.220.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.