Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 4–3 St. Mirren

Wednesday 11 February 2026, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 26 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 4,892

Kilmarnock Kiltie 43', John-Jules 45+1', 76', 82'

St. Mirren Phillips 8', 47', Tanser 90+3'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals43
xG2.761.96
Expected Points1.900.89

Kilmarnock 56%Draw 22%St. Mirren 22%

Most likely score 2–2, 9%. Final score 4–3, 4%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%4%4%3%1%3%5%2%3%6%2%2%5%6%4%2%2%2%1%7%9%8%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTHugill on for Anderson and Tshibola on for Lyons, 65'Brandon on for Curtis, 79'Thomson on for Watson, 80'McKenzie on for Polworth, 84'Nlundulu on for Richardson, 45'McMenamin on for Idowu, Calvin on for Phillips, and Tanser on for John, 84'Kiltie 43'John-Jules 45+1'John-Jules 76'John-Jules 82'Phillips 8'Phillips 47'Tanser 90+3'Kilmarnock 2.76St. Mirren 1.9601230153045607590HTHugill on for Anderson and Tshibola on for Lyons, 65'Brandon on for Curtis, 79'Thomson on for Watson, 80'McKenzie on for Polworth, 84'Nlundulu on for Richardson, 45'McMenamin on for Idowu, Calvin on for Phillips, and Tanser on for John, 84'Kiltie 43'John-Jules 45+1'John-Jules 76'John-Jules 82'Phillips 8'Phillips 47'Tanser 90+3'2.761.96KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

2.76 +1.55xG1.96 +0.77
2.92 +1.79xG on target2.23 +1.29
20 +9Shots15 +2
7 +3.3Shots on target7 +3.4
5 +3.2Big chances2 +0.2
22 +2Touches in the opposition box37 +12
58% +19Possession42% −3
431 +112Passes323 −26
81% +10Pass accuracy70% −3
52% +14Field tilt48% +1
37 +6Final-third entries32 −7
12 +2.4Box entries16 +4.4
12.2 −4Passes per defensive action14.0 −2
9 +4.8Corners4 −2.0
13 −3Tackles11 −3
9 +0.7Interceptions6 −0.7
35 0Clearances28 −2
5 +1.4Saves4 +0.9
10 −3Fouls19 +6
3 +1.2Offsides4 +1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Hugill 71', 0.41 xGJohn-Jules 76', 0.35 xGJohn-Jules 76', 0.10 xGCurtis 61', 0.07 xGJohn-Jules 6', 0.05 xGWatson 11', 0.05 xGCurtis 11', 0.04 xGCurtis 67', 0.03 xGKiltie 87', 0.03 xGCurtis 23', 0.02 xGSchilte-Brown 25', 0.02 xGCurtis 37', 0.02 xGCurtis 45+1', 0.02 xGCurtis 53', 0.02 xGCurtis 71', 0.02 xGCurtis 18', 0.01 xGJohn-Jules 82', 0.63 xG, goalKiltie 43', 0.51 xG, goalJohn-Jules 76', 0.33 xG, goalJohn-Jules 45+1', 0.04 xG, goal45%1.25 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.25 xG, 2 goals43%1.20 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.20 xG, 2 goals2%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals9%0.26 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Calvin 89', 0.35 xGCalvin 90+2', 0.16 xGIdowu 58', 0.11 xGPhillips 80', 0.10 xGNlundulu 89', 0.09 xGPhillips 30', 0.08 xGJohn 16', 0.06 xGIdowu 46', 0.05 xGNlundulu 57', 0.05 xGPhillips 52', 0.02 xGGogic 63', 0.02 xGDevaney 80', 0.02 xGPhillips 48', 0.43 xG, goalPhillips 8', 0.31 xG, goalTanser 90+3', 0.10 xG, goal38%0.74 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.74 xG, 2 goals44%0.85 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.85 xG, 1 goal11%0.22 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals5%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.96 8 shots, 3 goalsOpen play1.46 8 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.20 3 shots, 0 goals
0.81 12 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.29 4 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (42%) · Kilmarnock 1.44, St. Mirren 0.51 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
20 min (21%) · Kilmarnock 0.65, St. Mirren 1.31 xG
St. Mirren ahead
35 min (37%) · Kilmarnock 0.67, St. Mirren 0.14 xG

Line-ups

13212565212831111924RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasCurtisWatsonLyonsPolworthKiltieAndersonJohn-JulesYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoal79'80'65'84'65'Kilmarnock 4-3-1-2Neil McCann1225212888132497GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsDevaneyGogicJohnMandronIdowuYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card45'84'84'84'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Tshibola for Lyons
  • 65' Hugill for Anderson
  • 79' Brandon for Curtis
  • 80' Thomson for Watson
  • 84' McKenzie for Polworth

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 45' Nlundulu for Richardson
  • 84' Calvin for Phillips
  • 84' McMenamin for Idowu
  • 84' Tanser for John · goal 90+3'

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0111
Schjønning-LarsenRB900.000.0200.10112
Schilte-BrownCB900.020.0000.04114
DeasCB9010.000.3830.15710
CurtisLB7910.250.6520.32611
Watson CM800.050.0120.0142
LyonsCM650.000.1510.22410
PolworthCM840.000.0400.0556
KiltieAM9010.540.0800.1241
AndersonST650.000.0100.0110
John-JulesST9031.490.0410.0542
TshibolaMF250.000.0200.0321
HugillFW250.410.1510.0820
BrandonDF110.000.0000.0001
ThomsonMF100.000.0100.0110
McKenzieMF60.000.000−0.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0440
FraserCB900.000.0100.0359
King CB900.000.0400.1139
Freckleton CB900.000.0000.05615
RichardsonRWB450.000.0200.0323
PhillipsCM8420.940.0100.0012
DevaneyCM900.020.1320.1531
Gogic CM9010.020.0210.0456
JohnLWB840.060.0200.1192
MandronST9010.000.775−0.0915
IdowuST840.170.1400.2161
NlunduluFW450.140.0410.0730
CalvinDF60.510.0000.0010
McMenaminMF60.000.0100.0340
TanserMF610.100.2520.2420

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Watson and John-Jules: 4 passesLyons and John-Jules: 4 passesRoos and Schjønning-Larsen: 5 passesCurtis and Kiltie: 5 passesWatson and Kiltie: 5 passesLyons and Kiltie: 5 passesRoos and Lyons: 6 passesSchilte-Brown and Watson: 6 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Kiltie: 6 passesWatson and Lyons: 6 passesDeas and Polworth: 7 passesPolworth and Watson: 7 passesPolworth and Kiltie: 8 passesCurtis and Watson: 9 passesRoos and Schilte-Brown: 10 passesSchilte-Brown and Deas: 10 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lyons: 10 passesCurtis and Lyons: 11 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 11 passesPolworth and Lyons: 11 passesDeas and Lyons: 12 passesRoos and Deas: 13 passesCurtis and Schilte-Brown: 18 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Polworth: 19 passesDeas and Schjønning-Larsen: 21 passesRoos: 24 completed passesCurtis: 25 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 31 completed passesDeas: 36 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 36 completed passesPolworth: 31 completed passesWatson: 19 completed passesLyons: 40 completed passesKiltie: 20 completed passesJohn-Jules: 10 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passes13522562131128112419RoosCurtisSchilte-BrownDeasSchjønning-LarsenPolworthWatsonLyonsKiltieJohn-JulesAndersonStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

St. Mirren

George and King: 3 passesGeorge and Phillips: 3 passesKing and Devaney: 3 passesFraser and Devaney: 3 passesFraser and Idowu: 3 passesRichardson and Devaney: 3 passesJohn and Devaney: 3 passesJohn and Mandron: 3 passesMandron and Idowu: 3 passesGeorge and Fraser: 4 passesFreckleton and Idowu: 4 passesJohn and Gogic: 4 passesDevaney and Idowu: 4 passesKing and Freckleton: 5 passesPhillips and Mandron: 5 passesFraser and Richardson: 6 passesFreckleton and John: 8 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 9 passesGeorge: 13 completed passesKing: 6 completed passesFreckleton: 18 completed passesFraser: 12 completed passesRichardson: 4 completed passesJohn: 9 completed passesGogic: 6 completed passesPhillips: 7 completed passesDevaney: 13 completed passesMandron: 6 completed passesIdowu: 11 completed passes1521222241388897GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserRichardsonJohnGogicPhillipsDevaneyMandronIdowuStarters until 45' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
Schjønning-LarsenDeas16
CurtisSchilte-Brown15
PolworthSchjønning-Larsen12
Schilte-BrownDeas12
RoosDeas11

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
GeorgeFreckleton11
FreckletonJohn9
PhillipsGeorge6
MandronPhillips6
JohnMandron5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.217−0.18+1.06+1.78+0.76−1.05−2.16+0.27+1.810+5.25+1.54−1.12−2.91−2.82−1.75+2.42−1.23−0.90−2.60−2.10−1.51−0.90−2.00−0.91+0.22+1.10−0.41+0.24−5.02−6.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

St. Mirren

7+2.611+3.818+1.75−2.11−4.17+1.33−4.110+3.54−3.59+3.110+5.65+0.81−1.82−1.76+2.05+1.12−1.11−1.94+1.54+0.81−1.60−2.01−0.82+0.12−0.80−1.03+2.50−1.00−0.22+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.120.030.020.030.010.020.070.010.040.020.030.060.040.100.010.04−0.010.170.080.26LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.020.020.030.040.110.010.010.030.040.010.050.05−0.010.070.07−0.050.030.150.120.17LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackKilmarnock1.09 → 1.13St. Mirren1.16 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.60 → 1.58St. Mirren1.32 → 1.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th64%56%−8
Bottom9%5%−4
St. Mirren
11th5%10%+5
Dundee FC
11th15%19%+4
Livingston
11th9%6%−3
Bottom90%93%+3

From the forecast before the match (11 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.291.25
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.391.33
Clean sheet29%27%

Kilmarnock 37%Draw 28%St. Mirren 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%9%6%3%10%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
11th64%56%67%69%
Bottom9%5%9%13%
St. Mirren
11th5%10%4%1%
Dundee FC
11th15%19%13%12%
Livingston
11th9%6%9%12%
Bottom90%93%90%87%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–54 FebRangers (A)xG 1.39–3.14
  2. W3–031 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01
  3. L0–424 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–2.72
  4. D1–110 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–1.30
  5. L1–33 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.44–2.78
  6. L1–230 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.27–2.23

St. Mirren

  1. W1–03 FebHearts (H)xG 2.31–0.23
  2. D0–031 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.04–0.78
  3. D1–120 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.41–1.47
  4. L0–214 JanHearts (A)xG 0.98–2.18
  5. L0–210 JanFalkirk (H)xG 0.54–0.52
  6. L0–23 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.30–1.88

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position11th9th
Played2524
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠8–⁠145–⁠8–⁠11
Points17 (0.68 per game)23 (0.96 per game)
Expected Points per game0.981.28
Goals24–⁠4818–⁠31
xG per game1.21–⁠1.901.19–⁠1.31
Home: points, xG per game0.75, 1.36–⁠1.571.31, 1.20–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 1.07–⁠2.210.55, 1.18–⁠1.73
ManagerNeil McCann (3)Stephen Robinson (95)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackKilmarnock1.09, 10thSt. Mirren1.16, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.60, 11thSt. Mirren1.32, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.09St. Mirren attack: 1.161.161.09St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.60St. Mirren defence: 1.321.601.32

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+33%−25%−4%
Counter-attacks+23%−6%−36%+70%
Set pieces+5%+21%+22%−25%
Penalties−72%+148%−43%−71%
Headers−6%+14%+23%+6%
Left side−51%+29%−12%+3%
Centre+11%+30%−16%average
Right side−10%+14%−8%−9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−51%−9%Centre+11%averageRight side−10%+3%Open play−21%−4%Counter-attacks+23%+70%Set pieces+5%−25%Headers−6%+6%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−12%+14%Centre−16%+30%Right side−8%+29%Open play−25%+33%Counter-attacks−36%−6%Set pieces+22%+21%Headers+23%+14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.21xG1.19
1.90xG against1.31
39%Possession45%
10.6Shots12.5
15.1Shots against12.4
3.7Shots on target3.6
1.8Big chances1.8
19.8Touches in the opposition box25.1
319Passes349
71%Pass accuracy74%
4.2Corners6.0
38%Field tilt48%
31.2Final-third entries38.7
9.6Box entries11.6
15.9Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.211.77
Ahead161.242.36
Behind371.191.85

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level611.231.27
Ahead120.891.61
Behind171.271.22

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.282–5
16–300.170.264–8
31–450.310.307–5
46–600.140.315–10
61–750.180.342–9
76–900.300.434–11

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.130–0
16–300.180.194–3
31–450.180.282–6
46–600.170.182–6
61–750.190.274–5
76–900.290.246–11

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Stryjek 7Roos 3Brown 13Brannan 4Brandon 4Schilte-B… 11Schilte-BrownStanger 11Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 4Polworth 1Deas 22Williams 3Thomps… 22ThompsonBrannan 3Watson 20McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 16Thomson 2Polworth 15Lowery 8Kiltie 7Anderson 16Tiffoney 4Daniels 4Dackers 11John-Jules 10Kiltie 45-3-2 in 6 of 25 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 3-5-2 (4), 4-3-1-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 24Fraser 22King 15Gogic 12Freckleton 23Richards… 16RichardsonMcMenamin 7Sobowale 1Phillips 24Baccus 11McMena… 4McMenaminTaylor 4Gogic 9O'Hara 8Idowu 5John 22Tanser 2Mandron 20Nlundulu 10Idowu 5Ayunga 11Young 13-5-2 in 18 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (18), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 December 2025St. Mirren0–0KilmarnockxG 1.36–0.75
4 October 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.15–0.43
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29
2 January 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.98–0.26
14 September 2024St. Mirren2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–0.59
11 May 2024St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.85–1.44

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 7, St. Mirren won 2, and 7 were drawn. Goals 22–16 and xG 1.26–0.84 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers121,136200.330.10
John-Jules10979410.350.06
Anderson181,517420.350.04
Kiltie151,242230.150.22

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin111,029110.230.29
Ayunga11953200.340.03
Mandron201,704420.270.09
Nlundulu111,074200.280.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.