Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 2–2 Dundee FC

Saturday 11 April 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 33 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 6,435

Kilmarnock Hugill 14', Schjønning-Larsen 33'

Dundee FC Murray 24', S. Wright 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee FC
Goals22
xG1.631.32
Non-penalty xG1.630.53
Expected Points1.551.13

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 32%Dundee FC 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 19%. Final score 2–2, 10%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%8%5%4%11%2%3%10%1%2%7%5%2%1%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTThompson on for Schjønning-Larsen, 72'McKenzie on for Anderson, 77'Watson on for Lowery and Lyons on for Tshibola, 86'Samuels on for Halliday, 46'Westley on for Congreve and S. Wright on for Dhanda, 58'Hay on for Murray, 59'Reilly on for Yogane, 70'Hugill 14'Schjønning-Larsen 33'Murray 24'S. Wright 81'Kilmarnock 1.63Dundee FC 1.3200.511.520153045607590HTThompson on for Schjønning-Larsen, 72'McKenzie on for Anderson, 77'Watson on for Lowery and Lyons on for Tshibola, 86'Samuels on for Halliday, 46'Westley on for Congreve and S. Wright on for Dhanda, 58'Hay on for Murray, 59'Reilly on for Yogane, 70'Hugill 14'Schjønning-Larsen 33'Murray 24'S. Wright 81'1.631.32KilmarnockDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.63 +0.43xG1.32 +0.33
1.63Non-penalty xG0.53
1.76 +0.60xG on target2.30 +1.43
13 +2Shots8 −2
3 −0.8Shots on target6 +3.0
4 +2.2Big chances2 +0.7
19 −1Touches in the opposition box7 −9
51% +10Possession49% +6
380 +46Passes372 +21
77% +5Pass accuracy77% +2
58% +18Field tilt42% +6
43 +10Final-third entries27 −5
7 −2.8Box entries3 −4.1
12.4 −3Passes per defensive action25.1 +5
4 −0.4Corners2 −1.8
17 +2Tackles14 0
2 −6.2Interceptions4 −4.0
26 −8Clearances43 +9
4 +0.4Saves1 −2.9
24 +11.1Fouls7 −2.2
1 −0.9Offsides1 −0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Curtis 50', 0.27 xGCurtis 31', 0.17 xGLowery 31', 0.16 xGCurtis 62', 0.14 xGHugill 51', 0.09 xGCurtis 62', 0.08 xGAnderson 37', 0.07 xGAnderson 13', 0.05 xGKiltie 32', 0.04 xGSchjønning-Larsen 70', 0.04 xGTshibola 53', 0.03 xGHugill 14', 0.44 xG, goalSchjønning-Larsen 33', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%1.33 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.33 xG, 1 goal8%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals10%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

Hay 60', 0.04 xGHamilton 27', 0.03 xGDhanda 39', 0.03 xGHamilton 65', 0.02 xGKoumetio 48', 0.01 xGMurray 24', 0.35 xG, goalS. Wright 81', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals75%0.40 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal9%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 1 goal6%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals9%0.05 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.62 13 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.44 4 shots, 2 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.09 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (44%) · Kilmarnock 0.91, Dundee FC 0.82 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
58 min (56%) · Kilmarnock 0.72, Dundee FC 0.50 xG

Line-ups

13214621111836521944RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenKiltieLoweryTshibolaCurtisAndersonHugillYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoal72'86'86'77'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann1162257482021241715McCrackenHallidayGrahamKoumetioD. WrightHamiltonCongreveDhandaCotterillYoganeMurrayYellow cardYellow cardGoal46'58'58'70'59'Dundee FC 4-1-4-1Steven Pressley

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 72' Thompson for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 77' McKenzie for Anderson
  • 86' Lyons for Tshibola
  • 86' Watson for Lowery

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 46' Samuels for Halliday · 1 assist
  • 58' Westley for Congreve · penalty missed 90+12'
  • 58' S. Wright for Dhanda · goal 81'
  • 59' Hay for Murray
  • 70' Reilly for Yogane

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0440
Brandon RB900.000.0710.0799
Stanger CB900.000.0110.0555
Deas CB900.000.0300.11912
Schjønning-LarsenLB7210.090.0100.0761
KiltieRM900.040.0330.0521
LoweryCM860.160.2610.3334
Tshibola CM860.030.020−0.0122
CurtisLM900.670.0100.0324
AndersonST770.110.0000.0001
HugillST9010.530.0520.0010
ThompsonDF180.000.0000.0003
McKenzieMF130.000.0000.0203
LyonsMF40.000.0000.0100
WatsonMF40.000.000−0.0100

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0353
Halliday RB460.000.0000.0123
GrahamCB900.000.0010.01211
KoumetioCB900.010.0000.01018
D. WrightLB900.000.0200.0778
Hamilton DM900.040.0100.02310
CongreveRM580.000.0000.0011
DhandaCM580.030.0110.0201
CotterillCM900.000.071−0.0502
YoganeLM7010.000.1810.2471
MurrayST5910.350.000−0.0200
SamuelsDF4410.000.0210.0653
WestleyFW320.790.0000.0111
S. WrightFW3210.050.0100.0015
HayFW310.040.000−0.0100
ReillyMF200.000.0000.0010

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stanger and Kiltie: 4 passesRoos and Tshibola: 5 passesDeas and Lowery: 5 passesDeas and Curtis: 5 passesTshibola and Curtis: 5 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Curtis: 6 passesStanger and Lowery: 7 passesKiltie and Lowery: 7 passesBrandon and Kiltie: 8 passesLowery and Tshibola: 8 passesRoos and Stanger: 9 passesBrandon and Tshibola: 10 passesStanger and Tshibola: 10 passesStanger and Deas: 14 passesRoos and Deas: 15 passesBrandon and Stanger: 15 passesDeas and Tshibola: 16 passesBrandon and Lowery: 17 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 19 passesDeas and Schjønning-Larsen: 27 passesRoos: 15 completed passesBrandon: 28 completed passesStanger: 30 completed passesDeas: 44 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 38 completed passesKiltie: 17 completed passesLowery: 27 completed passesTshibola: 47 completed passesCurtis: 6 completed passesHugill: 5 completed passesAnderson: 5 completed passes13214621111836524419RoosBrandonStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenKiltieLoweryTshibolaCurtisHugillAndersonStarters until 72' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Dundee FC

McCracken and D. Wright: 3 passesHalliday and Dhanda: 3 passesGraham and Dhanda: 3 passesD. Wright and Hamilton: 3 passesDhanda and Cotterill: 3 passesYogane and Murray: 3 passesGraham and D. Wright: 4 passesHamilton and Yogane: 4 passesCongreve and Murray: 4 passesMcCracken and Halliday: 5 passesKoumetio and Cotterill: 5 passesGraham and Hamilton: 5 passesHamilton and Dhanda: 5 passesHamilton and Cotterill: 5 passesCotterill and Yogane: 5 passesHalliday and Congreve: 6 passesCongreve and Dhanda: 6 passesMcCracken and Graham: 9 passesKoumetio and Graham: 11 passesD. Wright and Cotterill: 11 passesHalliday and Graham: 12 passesD. Wright and Yogane: 13 passesMcCracken and Koumetio: 14 passesKoumetio and D. Wright: 14 passesMcCracken: 19 completed passesHalliday: 17 completed passesKoumetio: 23 completed passesGraham: 24 completed passesD. Wright: 28 completed passesHamilton: 17 completed passesCongreve: 10 completed passesDhanda: 10 completed passesCotterill: 18 completed passesYogane: 10 completed passesMurray: 4 completed passes1165227482021241715McCrackenHallidayKoumetioGrahamD. WrightHamiltonCongreveDhandaCotterillYoganeMurrayStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
Schjønning-LarsenDeas15
DeasSchjønning-Larsen12
DeasRoos11
TshibolaSchjønning-Larsen10
StangerDeas10

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
KoumetioMcCracken13
GrahamMcCracken12
D. WrightYogane11
KoumetioGraham11
McCrackenKoumetio9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−2.02−6.93−4.12−2.19+2.14−3.23−3.79+1.25−0.98+2.88+2.93−0.46+0.78+3.24+0.640.02−0.63−0.31−2.82−0.61−0.91−0.52+0.21−1.010.03+2.22+1.10−0.31+0.27−10.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Dundee FC

3−1.33−4.623+5.211+3.21−3.47+1.814+6.94−4.44−4.27+0.68+3.48+3.36+2.70−5.12−2.71−2.33+0.31−0.81−1.72−1.21−1.01−0.70−1.10−1.00−1.80−0.50−0.30−0.71+0.70−0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 32 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.040.010.010.010.010.010.010.040.040.030.020.01−0.010.090.050.02−0.02−0.010.040.030.02−0.020.170.18LessMore

Dundee FC

0.010.020.010.010.020.010.010.03−0.010.020.020.030.020.070.01−0.02−0.01−0.02−0.02−0.020.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.09 → 1.10Dundee FC1.06 → 1.06Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.64 → 1.64Dundee FC1.61 → 1.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th64%72%+8
Bottom1%1%0
Dundee FC
11th8%5%−3
Aberdeen
11th12%10%−2
St. Mirren
11th15%12%−3

From the forecast before the match (11 April 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee FC
Expected goals1.571.15
Win47%27%
Expected Points1.661.08
Clean sheet32%21%

Kilmarnock 47%Draw 26%Dundee FC 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%3%8%5%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 11 April 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee FC win
Kilmarnock
11th64%51%72%80%
Bottom1%<1%1%2%
Dundee FC
11th8%14%5%1%
Aberdeen
11th12%17%10%8%
St. Mirren
11th15%19%12%10%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–34 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.60–2.30
  2. W2–021 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.71–0.79
  3. W1–014 MarHearts (H)xG 1.27–1.06
  4. L1–528 FebFalkirk (A)xG 0.39–3.14
  5. D1–121 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.50–2.05
  6. L2–315 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.86–2.98

Dundee FC

  1. L1–25 AprCeltic (H)xG 1.55–3.82
  2. L0–121 MarHearts (A)xG 0.56–1.64
  3. D2–215 MarDundee United (H)xG 1.28–2.85
  4. W2–17 MarMotherwell (H)xG 1.47–1.85
  5. D3–328 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.92–1.74
  6. W3–221 FebAberdeen (A)xG 3.99–0.46

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee FC
Position11th8th
Played3232
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠9–⁠178–⁠8–⁠16
Points27 (0.84 per game)32 (1.00 per game)
Expected Points per game0.970.92
Goals35–⁠6332–⁠51
xG per game1.20–⁠1.930.99–⁠1.65
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.43–⁠1.601.38, 1.14–⁠1.68
Away: points, xG per game0.56, 0.96–⁠2.260.62, 0.83–⁠1.61
ManagerNeil McCann (10)Steven Pressley (32)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.09, 9thDundee FC1.06, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.64, 11thDundee FC1.61, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock attack: 1.09Dundee FC attack: 1.061.091.06Dundee FCKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprKilmarnock defence: 1.64Dundee FC defence: 1.611.641.61

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%+32%−36%+26%
Counter-attacks+15%+9%−72%+2%
Set pieces−7%+31%−15%+1%
Penalties−79%+114%+7%+7%
Headers−11%+5%−19%+9%
Left side−42%+26%−58%+14%
Centre+6%+37%−29%+9%
Right side−15%+15%−22%+34%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−42%+34%Centre+6%+9%Right side−15%+14%Open play−17%+26%Counter-attacks+15%+2%Set pieces−7%+1%Headers−11%+9%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−58%+15%Centre−29%+37%Right side−22%+26%Open play−36%+32%Counter-attacks−72%+9%Set pieces−15%+31%Headers−19%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.20xG0.99
1.93xG against1.65
41%Possession43%
11.1Shots10.0
15.0Shots against15.8
3.8Shots on target3.0
1.8Big chances1.3
20.1Touches in the opposition box15.8
334Passes351
72%Pass accuracy75%
4.4Corners3.8
40%Field tilt36%
33.0Final-third entries32.3
9.8Box entries7.1
15.5Passes per defensive action20.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level361.281.79
Ahead181.202.34
Behind361.111.87

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.041.71
Ahead160.861.90
Behind290.971.41

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.302–9
16–300.180.288–9
31–450.280.3010–6
46–600.120.335–14
61–750.180.322–11
76–900.320.418–14

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.284–8
16–300.100.224–9
31–450.260.329–7
46–600.120.265–6
61–750.170.223–5
76–900.200.357–16

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 10Stryjek 7Brown 13Brandon 7Schjønnin… 7Schjønning-LarsenSchilte… 15Schilte-BrownStanger 14Mayo 19Kiltie 8Lyons 3Deas 29Williams 3Thomps… 25ThompsonSchjønnin… 3Schjønning-LarsenBrannan 3Watson 23Curtis 3McKenzie 3Lyons 20Tshibola 4Thomson 2Polworth 19Kiltie 10Lowery 8Anderson 18Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Hugill 6Kiltie 45-3-2 in 6 of 32 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 4-4-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBDMRMCMCMLMSTMcCracken 32Astley 14D. Wright 9Halliday 5Astley 15C. Robertson 10Graham 28Koumetio 9Samuels 2Samuels 15D. Wright 13Murray 1Hamilton 12D. Wright 7Dhanda 4Congreve 25Westley 3Jones 2Dhanda 13Robertson 9Digby 8Hamilton 16Jones 8Cotterill 6Yogane 22Westley 4Dhanda 3Murray 18Hay 9Westley 34-1-4-1 in 8 of 32 starts

Formations: 4-1-4-1 (8), 3-4-3 (7), 4-2-3-1 (4), 4-5-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 December 2025Dundee FC2–1KilmarnockxG 2.23–1.27
23 August 2025Kilmarnock0–0Dundee FCxG 1.11–0.26
10 May 2025Kilmarnock3–2Dundee FCxG 3.50–0.99
30 November 2024Kilmarnock1–1Dundee FCxG 1.28–0.75
3 November 2024Dundee FC3–2KilmarnockxG 1.58–1.04
5 October 2024Dundee FC2–3KilmarnockxG 0.62–2.72

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, Dundee FC won 2, and 6 were drawn. Goals 17–17 and xG 1.78–1.17 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Curtis7561110.280.21
Hugill6562220.320.11
Dackers121,144200.330.10

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Hay101,117310.270.11
Congreve262,217270.100.27
Murray211,720600.320.03
Westley14964210.180.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.