Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 3–0 Dundee United

Saturday 2 May 2026, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 35 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 5,524

Kilmarnock Deas 20', Curtis 51', Hugill 64'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals30
xG2.402.11
Expected Points1.591.16

Kilmarnock 45%Draw 25%Dundee United 30%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 3–0, 3%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%5%6%4%2%3%8%4%1%3%7%8%6%3%1%3%3%2%1%9%12%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTThompson on for Clescenco, 46'Polworth on for Anderson, 63'McKenzie on for Curtis, Mayo on for Schjønning-Larsen, and Magennis on for Kiltie, 74'Sevelj on for Watters, 60'Dolcek on for Keresztes, 61'Sibbald on for Camará and Russell on for Sapsford, 71'Stirton on for Farrugia, 86'Deas 20'Curtis 51'Hugill 64'Kilmarnock 2.40Dundee United 2.1101230153045607590HTThompson on for Clescenco, 46'Polworth on for Anderson, 63'McKenzie on for Curtis, Mayo on for Schjønning-Larsen, and Magennis on for Kiltie, 74'Sevelj on for Watters, 60'Dolcek on for Keresztes, 61'Sibbald on for Camará and Russell on for Sapsford, 71'Stirton on for Farrugia, 86'Deas 20'Curtis 51'Hugill 64'2.402.11KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

2.40 +1.21xG2.11 +0.77
2.99 +1.84xG on target0.89 −0.51
11 0Shots20 +7
8 +4.3Shots on target5 +0.4
4 +2.1Big chances4 +2.0
16 −4Touches in the opposition box36 +12
41% −1Possession59% +18
341 +3Passes472 +170
72% 0Pass accuracy83% +16
4 −0.4Corners8 +3.5
14 −1Tackles3 −13
7 −0.9Interceptions5 −5.5
46 +12Clearances21 −16
5 +1.4Saves5 +1.8
13 0Fouls10 −3
1 −0.9Offsides2 +0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Kiltie 17', 0.47 xGLowery 6', 0.20 xGKiltie 17', 0.13 xGStanger 31', 0.10 xGHugill 79', 0.10 xGHugill 17', 0.07 xGTshibola 38', 0.05 xGTshibola 41', 0.03 xGDeas 20', 0.96 xG, goalHugill 64', 0.23 xG, goalCurtis 51', 0.06 xG, goal46%1.09 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.09 xG, 1 goal46%1.09 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.09 xG, 1 goal3%0.06 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.06 xG, 1 goal6%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Sibbald 72', 0.41 xGSapsford 39', 0.32 xGStirton 87', 0.21 xGCleall-Harding 15', 0.20 xGSapsford 14', 0.10 xGFarrugia 75', 0.10 xGSapsford 4', 0.09 xGFerry 35', 0.08 xGGraham 69', 0.08 xGDolcek 70', 0.08 xGWatters 35', 0.07 xGFerry 35', 0.07 xGDolcek 89', 0.06 xGSapsford 49', 0.05 xGGraham 81', 0.05 xGSapsford 8', 0.04 xGAgyei 33', 0.04 xGCamará 69', 0.02 xGWatters 10', 0.01 xGAgyei 63', 0.01 xG31%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 6 shots, 0.66 xG, 0 goals45%0.94 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.94 xG, 0 goals6%0.13 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals17%0.35 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals1%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

1.35 9 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.55 12 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.06 1 shot, 0 goals
1.05 2 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.51 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
20 min (22%) · Kilmarnock 1.84, Dundee United 0.45 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
70 min (78%) · Kilmarnock 0.56, Dundee United 1.66 xG

Line-ups

15214621111836441920StryjekCurtisStangerDeasSchjønning-LarsenKiltieLoweryTshibolaHugillAndersonClescencoGoalGoalGoal74'74'74'63'46'Kilmarnock 4-3-3Neil McCann2537623228121120369RichardsCleall-HardingGrahamKeresztesNaamoCamaráAgyeiFerryFarrugiaWattersSapsfordYellow card61'71'86'60'71'Dundee United 3-4-3Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Thompson for Clescenco
  • 63' Polworth for Anderson
  • 74' Mayo for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 74' Magennis for Kiltie
  • 74' McKenzie for Curtis

Dundee United substitutes

  • 60' Sevelj for Watters
  • 61' Dolcek for Keresztes
  • 71' Sibbald for Camará
  • 71' Russell for Sapsford
  • 86' Stirton for Farrugia

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
StryjekGK900.000.0002
CurtisRB7410.060.0107
StangerCB900.100.0109
DeasCB9010.960.02014
Schjønning-LarsenLB740.000.0109
KiltieCM7410.600.5153
LoweryCM900.200.0505
TshibolaCM900.080.08012
HugillRW9010.400.0614
AndersonST630.000.0000
ClescencoLW460.000.0000
ThompsonDF440.000.0004
PolworthMF270.000.0311
MayoDF160.000.0002
MagennisMF160.000.0000
McKenzieMF160.000.0001

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPDef
RichardsGK900.000.0100
Cleall-HardingCB900.200.0006
GrahamCB900.130.0006
KeresztesCB610.000.0005
NaamoRWB900.000.3834
CamaráCM710.020.0213
AgyeiCM900.050.0602
FerryLWB900.150.8480
Farrugia RW860.100.4621
WattersST600.090.0511
SapsfordLW710.610.0210
SeveljMF300.000.0501
DolcekFW290.130.0300
SibbaldMF190.410.0000
RussellFW190.000.0310
StirtonFW40.210.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions).

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.11 → 1.13Dundee United1.24 → 1.23Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.63 → 1.60Dundee United1.48 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th69%54%−15
Bottom<1%–0
St. Mirren
11th26%37%+11
Dundee FC
11th5%9%+4

From the forecast before the match (2 May 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.441.32
Win39%34%
Expected Points1.451.29
Clean sheet27%24%

Kilmarnock 39%Draw 27%Dundee United 34%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 57%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%8%6%2%8%8%4%1%7%9%6%3%3%4%3%1%1%2%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 May 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
11th69%54%75%81%
Bottom<1%–<1%1%
St. Mirren
11th26%37%22%16%
Dundee FC
11th5%9%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–125 AprAberdeen (A)xG 0.71–0.50
  2. D2–211 AprDundee FC (H)xG 1.63–1.32
  3. L0–34 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.60–2.30
  4. W2–021 MarLivingston (H)xG 1.71–0.79
  5. W1–014 MarHearts (H)xG 1.27–1.06
  6. L1–528 FebFalkirk (A)xG 0.39–3.14

Dundee United

  1. W3–026 AprDundee FC (H)xG 2.14–0.76
  2. W3–211 AprLivingston (H)xG 1.82–1.81
  3. L2–44 AprRangers (A)xG 1.81–3.96
  4. W2–022 MarCeltic (H)xG 1.13–1.10
  5. D2–215 MarDundee FC (A)xG 2.85–1.28
  6. W2–13 MarSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.69–1.11

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position11th7th
Played3434
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠10–⁠1810–⁠13–⁠11
Points28 (0.82 per game)43 (1.26 per game)
Expected Points per game1.001.16
Goals37–⁠6648–⁠54
xG per game1.19–⁠1.871.34–⁠1.77
Home: points, xG per game1.12, 1.44–⁠1.591.50, 1.39–⁠1.83
Away: points, xG per game0.53, 0.94–⁠2.161.00, 1.29–⁠1.71
ManagerNeil McCann (12)Jim Goodwin (84)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.11, 9thDundee United1.24, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.63, 10thDundee United1.48, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 1.11Dundee United attack: 1.241.241.11Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.63Dundee United defence: 1.481.631.48

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+27%−26%+24%
Counter-attacks+10%+5%+28%+9%
Set pieces−8%+25%+12%+34%
Penalties−80%+117%+38%+19%
Headers−7%+5%−12%+21%
Left side−38%+21%+3%+29%
Centre+5%+32%−21%+27%
Right side−17%+11%+4%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−38%+16%Centre+5%+27%Right side−17%+29%Open play−15%+24%Counter-attacks+10%+9%Set pieces−8%+34%Headers−7%+21%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+3%+11%Centre−21%+32%Right side+4%+21%Open play−26%+27%Counter-attacks+28%+5%Set pieces+12%+25%Headers−12%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

1.19xG1.34
1.87xG against1.77
42%Possession41%
11.1Shots13.4
14.6Shots against15.4
3.7Shots on target4.6
1.9Big chances2.0
20.1Touches in the opposition box24.2
338Passes302
72%Pass accuracy67%
4.4Corners4.5
41%Field tilt38%
33.2Final-third entries30.7
9.7Box entries11.3
15.4Passes per defensive action14.5

Per league match this season before kick-off. Field tilt, entries, and passes per defensive action cover 33 and 33 of those matches.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.311.81
Ahead191.192.20
Behind361.081.77

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.481.53
Ahead191.132.16
Behind241.251.94

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.293–10
16–300.190.278–10
31–450.270.2811–6
46–600.130.315–14
61–750.180.302–11
76–900.310.428–15

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.195–3
16–300.120.255–13
31–450.240.348–9
46–600.260.327–11
61–750.250.3014–5
76–900.280.379–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTOluwayemi 12Roos 11Stryjek 8Brandon 7Schjønning-L… 7Schjønning-LarsenBrown 7Mayo 13Stanger 11Schilte-Brown 10Deas 31Williams 3Thompson 17Schjønning-L… 5Schjønning-LarsenLyons 4Lyons 7Watson 7Brown 6Watson 15Lyons 11Tshibola 5Polworth 16Lowery 9Kiltie 7Kiltie 8Thompson 8Mayo 4Anderson 19Daniels 4Tiffoney 3Dackers 11John-Jules 10Hugill 84-4-2 in 6 of 34 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-2-1-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWRichards 12Kucherenko 12Maynard-Brewer 10Iovu 26Sevelj 6Cleall-Harding 4Esselink 18Graham 16Keresztes 29Stephenson 17Strain 10Naamo 4Sevelj 19Stephenson 8Sibbald 19Camará 13Agyei 7Ferry 29Keresztes 2Naamo 2Sapsford 8Farrugia 7Dolcek 7Sapsford 13Watters 13Möller 6Fatah 17Sapsford 6Trapanovski 53-4-3 in 17 of 34 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (17), 3-4-2-1 (6), 3-5-2 (5), 4-3-3 (2), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-1-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 February 2026Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.05–0.50
29 November 2025Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.11–1.86
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46
7 December 2024Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.38–1.62
28 September 2024Kilmarnock3–3Dundee UnitedxG 2.31–2.73

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 6, Dundee United won 2, and 6 were drawn. Goals 22–14 and xG 1.53–1.46 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Curtis9738110.330.19
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Hugill8742320.320.09

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Fatah221,859830.330.15
Sapsford272,367820.370.07
Dolcek10918520.290.12
Watters151,180220.320.08

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.