Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 2–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 4 October 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 7 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 5,399

Kilmarnock Watson 28', Dackers 36'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Goals20
xG2.150.43
Expected Points2.650.22

Kilmarnock 84%Draw 13%St. Mirren 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 23%. Final score 2–0, 23%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%1%15%8%1%11%2%16%8%1%5%3%23%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTDaniels on for Polworth and Lyons on for Anderson, 65'McKenzie on for Kiltie, 82'Brannan on for Brown and Magennis on for Watson, 90+2'Baccus on for King, McMenamin on for Idowu, and Nlundulu on for Mandron, 46'Mooney on for Ayunga and Dijksteel on for Donnelly, 64'Watson 28'Dackers 36'Kilmarnock 2.15St. Mirren 0.4301230153045607590HTDaniels on for Polworth and Lyons on for Anderson, 65'McKenzie on for Kiltie, 82'Brannan on for Brown and Magennis on for Watson, 90+2'Baccus on for King, McMenamin on for Idowu, and Nlundulu on for Mandron, 46'Mooney on for Ayunga and Dijksteel on for Donnelly, 64'Watson 28'Dackers 36'2.150.43KilmarnockSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

2.15 +0.93xG0.43 −0.52
2.42 +1.15xG on target0.00 −1.07
9 −2.0Shots7 −2.8
5 +1.2Shots on target0 −3.8
5 +3.0Big chances0 −1.8
15 −4Touches in the opposition box20 0
36% −1Possession64% +26
237 −69Passes419 +115
63% −9Pass accuracy72% 0
30% −3Field tilt70% +29
22 −4Final-third entries37 +4
7 −1.0Box entries6 −5.3
15.5 0Passes per defensive action6.9 −14
4 −0.8Corners9 +4.3
18 0Tackles14 +1
11 +0.5Interceptions6 −1.7
51 +14Clearances17 −18
0 −3.8Saves3 −0.5
8 −6Fouls21 +9
0 −1.7Offsides3 +1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Daniels 79', 0.29 xGAnderson 27', 0.25 xGAnderson 47', 0.10 xGDackers 47', 0.09 xGDackers 47', 0.08 xGBrown 90+1', 0.04 xGDackers 74', 0.03 xGWatson 28', 0.74 xG, goalDackers 36', 0.53 xG, goal60%1.28 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 1.28 xG, 2 goals22%0.47 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.47 xG, 0 goals17%0.36 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Gogic 5', 0.17 xGNlundulu 70', 0.07 xGAyunga 24', 0.05 xGDijksteel 81', 0.05 xGKing 44', 0.04 xGNlundulu 89', 0.03 xGPhillips 57', 0.01 xG56%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.24 xG, 0 goals16%0.07 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals28%0.12 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.16 7 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.14 3 shots, 0 goals
0.99 2 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.29 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
28 min (30%) · Kilmarnock 0.99, St. Mirren 0.23 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
64 min (70%) · Kilmarnock 1.16, St. Mirren 0.20 xG

Line-ups

11456151231113919StryjekStangerMayoDeasBrownWatsonPolworthKiltieThompsonDackersAndersonGoalGoal90+2'90+2'65'82'65'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Stuart Kettlewell1513212884724119GeorgeKingGogicFreckletonRichardsonPhillipsDonnellyIdowuJohnAyungaMandronYellow card46'64'46'64'46'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Lyons for Anderson
  • 65' Daniels for Polworth · yellow card 87'
  • 82' McKenzie for Kiltie
  • 90+2' Brannan for Brown
  • 90+2' Magennis for Watson

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' McMenamin for Idowu
  • 46' Baccus for King · yellow card 73'
  • 46' Nlundulu for Mandron
  • 64' Mooney for Ayunga
  • 64' Dijksteel for Donnelly

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0342
StangerCB900.000.0000.04316
MayoCB900.000.0000.02120
DeasCB900.000.0000.03414
BrownRWB9010.040.2710.19310
WatsonCM9010.740.0420.0435
PolworthCM650.000.020−0.0113
KiltieCM820.000.1710.0210
ThompsonLWB900.000.0110.0329
DackersST9010.730.1910.1143
AndersonST650.350.0100.0740
LyonsMF250.000.0000.0102
Daniels FW250.290.0000.0011
McKenzieMF80.000.0000.0000
BrannanDF00.000.000––0
MagennisMF00.000.000––0

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0110.0550
KingCB460.040.0200.0531
Gogic CB900.170.0100.0649
FreckletonCB900.000.0100.0963
RichardsonRWB900.000.0400.1179
PhillipsCM900.010.0100.0623
DonnellyCM640.000.010−0.0214
IdowuCM460.000.0000.0121
JohnLWB900.000.2620.0241
AyungaST640.050.010−0.0601
MandronST460.000.0100.0003
McMenaminMF440.000.0910.0841
Baccus MF440.000.020−0.0122
NlunduluFW440.100.010−0.0600
MooneyMF260.000.0800.1000
DijksteelMF260.050.0000.0120

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stryjek and Brown: 3 passesStryjek and Thompson: 3 passesStanger and Dackers: 3 passesDeas and Dackers: 3 passesBrown and Anderson: 3 passesThompson and Polworth: 3 passesKiltie and Anderson: 3 passesWatson and Anderson: 3 passesStanger and Polworth: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 4 passesBrown and Watson: 4 passesKiltie and Polworth: 4 passesPolworth and Dackers: 4 passesWatson and Dackers: 4 passesAnderson and Dackers: 4 passesStryjek and Stanger: 5 passesStanger and Brown: 5 passesStanger and Watson: 5 passesDeas and Kiltie: 5 passesBrown and Dackers: 5 passesStryjek and Mayo: 7 passesThompson and Kiltie: 8 passesBrown and Polworth: 9 passesDeas and Thompson: 10 passesStryjek: 16 completed passesStanger: 11 completed passesMayo: 10 completed passesDeas: 13 completed passesBrown: 17 completed passesThompson: 14 completed passesKiltie: 8 completed passesPolworth: 21 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passesDackers: 8 completed passes11456153113112199StryjekStangerMayoDeasBrownThompsonKiltiePolworthWatsonAndersonDackersStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

St. Mirren

George and Donnelly: 3 passesGeorge and Mandron: 3 passesGeorge and Ayunga: 3 passesKing and Freckleton: 3 passesKing and John: 3 passesKing and Donnelly: 3 passesKing and Mandron: 3 passesKing and Ayunga: 3 passesIdowu and Mandron: 3 passesDonnelly and Mandron: 3 passesGeorge and King: 4 passesPhillips and Mandron: 4 passesIdowu and Donnelly: 4 passesMandron and Ayunga: 4 passesJohn and Idowu: 5 passesFreckleton and Donnelly: 6 passesFreckleton and Idowu: 7 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 9 passesGogic and King: 9 passesGeorge and Gogic: 10 passesKing and Richardson: 10 passesFreckleton and John: 10 passesGogic and Freckleton: 18 passesGeorge: 19 completed passesGogic: 23 completed passesKing: 19 completed passesFreckleton: 30 completed passesRichardson: 10 completed passesJohn: 13 completed passesPhillips: 9 completed passesIdowu: 9 completed passesDonnelly: 12 completed passesMandron: 9 completed passesAyunga: 4 completed passes1135212248874911GeorgeGogicKingFreckletonRichardsonJohnPhillipsIdowuDonnellyMandronAyungaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasThompson7
ThompsonDeas5
ThompsonKiltie5
BrownPolworth5
ThompsonDackers5

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FreckletonGogic15
JohnFreckleton13
GogicFreckleton12
GogicGeorge11
GeorgeGogic11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

12+5.212+3.019+2.36−2.23−1.212+4.04−3.76−1.715+5.89+3.87+0.53−2.55+2.78+3.89+4.23−2.55−0.31−1.73+0.21−2.32−1.80−2.22−0.510.01−0.21−0.20−0.73+2.01+0.55+4.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

St. Mirren

4−0.74−3.82−6.53−1.77−0.56−3.04−0.58+0.78+2.550.05+0.84+1.86+3.23−1.51−2.84+1.55+1.83+1.83+0.53−0.70−2.52+0.30−1.82−1.210.01+0.51+0.200.00−0.310−10.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.020.010.010.040.040.010.020.010.030.040.010.010.01−0.010.020.120.02−0.020.18LessMore

St. Mirren

0.010.010.020.030.020.010.030.040.010.010.02−0.020.020.010.020.02−0.010.01−0.010.020.060.070.07LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.22 → 1.26St. Mirren1.21 → 1.18Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.44 → 1.39St. Mirren1.35 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six38%48%+10
11th5%3%−2
Bottom2%1%−1
St. Mirren
Top six57%47%−10
11th2%3%+1
Bottom1%1%0

From the forecast before the match (4 October 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.421.16
Win42%30%
Expected Points1.551.18
Clean sheet32%24%

Kilmarnock 42%Draw 28%St. Mirren 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

St. Mirren goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 October 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawSt. Mirren win
Kilmarnock
Top six38%48%37%27%
11th5%3%5%7%
Bottom2%1%2%3%
St. Mirren
Top six57%47%57%69%
11th2%3%1%1%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–027 SepDundee United (A)xG 1.49–2.21
  2. L1–214 SepCeltic (H)xG 1.66–2.83
  3. D2–230 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.20–1.76
  4. D0–023 AugDundee FC (H)xG 1.11–0.26
  5. D2–210 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.94–1.77
  6. D2–22 AugLivingston (H)xG 0.91–1.83

St. Mirren

  1. W1–027 SepDundee FC (H)xG 0.74–0.62
  2. W2–113 SepFalkirk (A)xG 1.57–0.70
  3. D1–131 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.85–2.42
  4. D1–124 AugRangers (H)xG 1.01–1.56
  5. D0–09 AugMotherwell (H)xG 1.31–0.53
  6. L0–13 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.23–1.41

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
Position7th3rd
Played66
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠4–⁠12–⁠3–⁠1
Points7 (1.17 per game)9 (1.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.001.19
Goals9–⁠85–⁠4
xG per game1.22–⁠1.780.95–⁠1.21
Home: points, xG per game0.67, 1.23–⁠1.641.67, 1.02–⁠0.90
Away: points, xG per game1.67, 1.21–⁠1.911.33, 0.88–⁠1.51
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (6)Stephen Robinson (77)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.36AttackKilmarnock1.22, 6thSt. Mirren1.21, 7thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.44, 7thSt. Mirren1.35, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepKilmarnock attack: 1.22St. Mirren attack: 1.211.221.21St. MirrenKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepKilmarnock defence: 1.44St. Mirren defence: 1.351.441.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−29%+3%−25%+8%
Counter-attacks+6%+92%−36%−50%
Set pieces+57%+12%−6%+5%
Penalties−100%+185%−100%−100%
Headers+30%+44%−27%−15%
Left side−53%+50%−38%+6%
Centre+34%−11%−11%+10%
Right side−22%+47%−27%−28%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side−53%−28%Centre+34%+10%Right side−22%+6%Open play−29%+8%Counter-attacks+6%−50%Set pieces+57%+5%Headers+30%−15%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−38%+47%Centre−11%−11%Right side−27%+50%Open play−25%+3%Counter-attacks−36%+92%Set pieces−6%+12%Headers−27%+44%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockSt. Mirren

1.22xG0.95
1.78xG against1.21
37%Possession38%
11.0Shots9.8
14.5Shots against12.0
3.8Shots on target3.8
2.0Big chances1.8
19.0Touches in the opposition box20.3
306Passes304
72%Pass accuracy72%
4.8Corners4.7
34%Field tilt41%
26.3Final-third entries32.7
8.0Box entries11.3
15.4Passes per defensive action21.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level550.991.13
Ahead231.193.12
Behind122.312.15

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level680.990.90
Ahead220.832.02
Behind00.006.60

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.140–0
16–300.130.242–2
31–450.250.313–1
46–600.160.142–1
61–750.200.310–2
76–900.430.642–2

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.180–0
16–300.180.130–0
31–450.190.222–0
46–600.070.090–0
61–750.190.322–1
76–900.280.261–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTStryjek 6Brandon 3Brown 2Brannan 1Stanger 4Schilte-B… 2Schilte-BrownLyons 1Mayo 6Deas 5Thompson 3Brannan 3Watson 6McKenzie 2Lyons 2Polworth 6Kiltie 1Lowery 1Dackers 5Daniels 4Anderson 2Kiltie 15-3-2 in 2 of 6 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 6Fraser 5King 2Gogic 6Freckleton 5Richardson 6Phillips 6Baccus 4Donnelly 1Taylor 1O'Hara 5Idowu 1John 6Ayunga 4Idowu 2Mandron 63-5-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (3), 5-3-2 (3)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 March 2025St. Mirren5–1KilmarnockxG 1.74–1.29
2 January 2025Kilmarnock2–0St. MirrenxG 2.98–0.26
14 September 2024St. Mirren2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–0.59
11 May 2024St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.85–1.44
16 March 2024Kilmarnock5–2St. MirrenxG 1.91–0.74
27 December 2023St. Mirren0–1KilmarnockxG 0.46–0.81

14 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 6, St. Mirren won 2, and 6 were drawn. Goals 20–16 and xG 1.24–0.83 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watson6515210.310.04
Dackers5466000.180.14
Polworth6495110.060.19
Deas5450100.080.02

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Mandron6506120.250.13
John6530120.020.21
Phillips6472100.130.07
Gogic6540000.120.01

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.