Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 1–0 Aberdeen

Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:00 · Tynecastle Park · Round 29 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Kevin Clancy · Attendance 18,788

Hearts Braga 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsAberdeen
Goals10
xG2.330.39
Expected Points2.690.19

Hearts 86%Draw 11%Aberdeen 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 22%. Final score 1–0, 13%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+3%1%13%7%10%2%7%1%8%3%2%1%22%17%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTKent on for Kyziridis, 84'Baningime on for Spittal and Chesnokov on for Braga, 87'Frame on for Keskinen and Nilsen on for Shinnie, 46'Armstrong on for Cameron, 66'Lobban on for Devlin, 71'Lazetic on for Olusanya, 79'Braga 28'Hearts 2.33Aberdeen 0.3901230153045607590HTKent on for Kyziridis, 84'Baningime on for Spittal and Chesnokov on for Braga, 87'Frame on for Keskinen and Nilsen on for Shinnie, 46'Armstrong on for Cameron, 66'Lobban on for Devlin, 71'Lazetic on for Olusanya, 79'Braga 28'2.330.39HeartsAberdeen

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsAberdeen

2.33 +0.72xG0.39 −0.85
2.10 +0.22xG on target0.00 −1.09
22 +8Shots5 −7
7 +2.0Shots on target0 −3.9
4 +1.5Big chances0 −1.9
31 +4Touches in the opposition box17 −5
53% 0Possession47% −2
362 −53Passes328 −73
69% −7Pass accuracy66% −12
64% +6Field tilt36% −10
53 +13Final-third entries23 −14
13 0Box entries11 0
11.6 0Passes per defensive action9.0 −5
7 +1.6Corners4 −0.9
16 −2Tackles17 +1
10 +1.2Interceptions21 +14.0
19 −14Clearances49 +18
0 −2.2Saves6 +2.6
7 −4Fouls16 +2
0 −1.3Offsides3 +1.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Kaboré 21', 0.59 xGBraga 53', 0.24 xGMagnússon 4', 0.19 xGBraga 12', 0.06 xGKyziridis 45', 0.06 xGSpittal 52', 0.06 xGKyziridis 5', 0.05 xGKyziridis 7', 0.05 xGBraga 9', 0.05 xGBraga 15', 0.05 xGKaboré 49', 0.05 xGBraga 27', 0.04 xGSpittal 37', 0.04 xGChesnokov 88', 0.04 xGKaboré 21', 0.03 xGMilne 60', 0.03 xGBraga 82', 0.03 xGMilne 90+5', 0.02 xGLeonard 14', 0.01 xGKaboré 30', 0.01 xGKyziridis 60', 0.01 xGBraga 28', 0.61 xG, goal10%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.24 xG, 0 goals67%1.55 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 1.55 xG, 1 goal8%0.19 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals13%0.31 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.31 xG, 0 goals2%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Aberdeen

Devlin 49', 0.19 xGOlusanya 26', 0.09 xGNisbet 2', 0.04 xGNisbet 50', 0.04 xGKeskinen 34', 0.03 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals72%0.28 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals18%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals10%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsAberdeen

0.40 12 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.12 2 shots, 0 goals
1.29 4 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.19 1 shot, 0 goals
0.64 6 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.08 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
28 min (29%) · Hearts 1.74, Aberdeen 0.13 xG
Hearts ahead
67 min (71%) · Hearts 0.59, Aberdeen 0.26 xG

Line-ups

25154518892249161110SchwolowSteinwenderHalkettMcCartMilneKyziridisMagnússonLeonardSpittalKaboréBragaYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal84'87'87'Hearts 4-4-2Derek McInnes122223214202588115MitovDevlinMilneMorrisonMolloyShinnieOlusanyaCameronGeigerKeskinenNisbetYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow card71'46'79'66'46'Aberdeen 4-1-4-1Peter Leven

Hearts substitutes

  • 84' Kent for Kyziridis
  • 87' Baningime for Spittal
  • 87' Chesnokov for Braga

Aberdeen substitutes

  • 46' Frame for Keskinen · yellow card 90+4'
  • 46' Nilsen for Shinnie
  • 66' Armstrong for Cameron
  • 71' Lobban for Devlin
  • 79' Lazetic for Olusanya

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0431
SteinwenderRB900.000.0300.09710
Halkett CB900.000.0100.0249
McCart CB900.000.0710.0785
MilneLB900.050.7110.18103
KyziridisRM840.160.0310.1680
MagnússonCM900.190.1000.0921
LeonardCM900.010.0300.08710
Spittal LM870.100.2040.2784
KaboréST9010.690.5940.3621
BragaST8711.080.054−0.0311
KentDF60.000.0000.0000
BaningimeMF30.000.0000.0003
ChesnokovFW30.040.000––0

Aberdeen

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MitovGK900.000.0000.0440
Devlin RB710.190.0000.0122
Milne CB900.000.0000.03210
MorrisonCB900.000.0000.00018
MolloyLB900.000.0100.07522
Shinnie DM460.000.0000.0017
OlusanyaRM790.090.0310.0432
CameronCM660.000.0220.0324
Geiger CM900.000.0100.00310
KeskinenLM460.030.2810.2851
NisbetST900.080.0200.0416
Frame DF440.000.1300.1652
NilsenMF440.000.0100.0538
ArmstrongMF240.000.0100.0230
LobbanMF190.000.0000.0002
LazeticFW110.000.0500.0810

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

McCart and Spittal: 5 passesMcCart and Kaboré: 5 passesHalkett and Milne: 5 passesLeonard and Braga: 5 passesSpittal and Kyziridis: 5 passesMcCart and Milne: 6 passesLeonard and Magnússon: 6 passesMagnússon and Kyziridis: 6 passesMagnússon and Kaboré: 6 passesSchwolow and McCart: 7 passesMcCart and Halkett: 7 passesMilne and Kaboré: 7 passesSpittal and Kaboré: 7 passesSteinwender and Halkett: 9 passesMilne and Leonard: 9 passesLeonard and Spittal: 9 passesLeonard and Kyziridis: 9 passesSpittal and Braga: 9 passesKyziridis and Braga: 9 passesKaboré and Braga: 9 passesSteinwender and Kyziridis: 10 passesMilne and Braga: 13 passesMilne and Spittal: 28 passesSchwolow: 11 completed passesSteinwender: 27 completed passesMcCart: 26 completed passesHalkett: 22 completed passesMilne: 38 completed passesLeonard: 29 completed passesMagnússon: 17 completed passesSpittal: 39 completed passesKyziridis: 19 completed passesKaboré: 14 completed passesBraga: 20 completed passes25155418492216891110SchwolowSteinwenderMcCartHalkettMilneLeonardMagnússonSpittalKyziridisKaboréBragaStarters until 84' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Aberdeen

Mitov and Molloy: 3 passesDevlin and Olusanya: 3 passesMolloy and Keskinen: 3 passesGeiger and Olusanya: 3 passesShinnie and Cameron: 3 passesOlusanya and Keskinen: 3 passesMitov and Devlin: 4 passesMitov and Geiger: 4 passesDevlin and Cameron: 4 passesMilne and Shinnie: 4 passesMilne and Cameron: 4 passesMolloy and Cameron: 4 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 5 passesMilne and Geiger: 5 passesMorrison and Molloy: 5 passesMolloy and Geiger: 5 passesMilne and Morrison: 6 passesMorrison and Geiger: 6 passesCameron and Keskinen: 6 passesMitov and Milne: 9 passesMitov and Morrison: 11 passesMitov: 19 completed passesDevlin: 8 completed passesMilne: 17 completed passesMorrison: 19 completed passesMolloy: 16 completed passesGeiger: 11 completed passesShinnie: 7 completed passesOlusanya: 4 completed passesCameron: 12 completed passesKeskinen: 7 completed passesNisbet: 4 completed passes122223218420258115MitovDevlinMilneMorrisonMolloyGeigerShinnieOlusanyaCameronKeskinenNisbetStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SpittalMilne15
MilneSpittal13
MilneBraga9
SteinwenderKyziridis7
KaboréBraga7

Aberdeen

FromToPasses
MorrisonMitov11
MorrisonMilne8
MorrisonMolloy8
MolloyMorrison7
MitovMilne6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−1.39+2.510−2.61−2.96−1.17−0.95−1.87−1.45−1.96+0.14−1.93−1.99+2.94−1.25−0.16+1.64+1.40−3.99+4.64+1.64+1.91−0.41−0.44+1.20−1.11+0.62+1.51+0.60−0.91−5.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Aberdeen

6+1.57−0.326+10.719+11.04−0.66−0.87−0.47+0.912+2.211+3.63−2.27+3.510+5.98+2.85−1.62−0.97+3.52−0.63−0.54−0.63+0.83+2.00−1.10−1.70−2.71+0.60−0.20−0.40−0.50−0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.020.020.030.020.010.030.010.090.030.070.050.120.010.050.030.010.040.050.130.160.160.18LessMore

Aberdeen

0.010.040.010.010.020.010.020.040.030.010.020.030.060.100.020.130.170.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackHearts1.46 → 1.49Aberdeen1.12 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.11 → 1.08Aberdeen1.54 → 1.57

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title29%35%+6
Aberdeen
Top six<1%<1%0
11th3%4%+1
Rangers
Title32%29%−3
Celtic
Title37%34%−3

From the forecast before the match (28 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsAberdeen
Expected goals1.970.84
Win63%15%
Expected Points2.120.66
Clean sheet43%14%

Hearts 63%Draw 22%Aberdeen 15%

Most likely score 2–0, 12%. Both sides score 49%.

Aberdeen goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%4%1%4%1%8%6%3%4%3%1%1%1%11%10%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawAberdeen win
Hearts
Title29%35%21%17%
Aberdeen
Top six<1%<1%<1%2%
11th3%4%3%1%
Rangers
Title32%29%36%40%
Celtic
Title37%34%42%41%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W1–021 FebFalkirk (H)xG 1.10–0.74
  2. L2–415 FebRangers (A)xG 0.40–2.51
  3. W1–010 FebHibernian (H)xG 0.66–0.38
  4. L0–13 FebSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.23–2.31
  5. W3–031 JanDundee United (A)xG 4.39–0.18
  6. D2–225 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.66–1.35

Aberdeen

  1. D0–024 FebDundee United (A)xG 1.45–1.02
  2. L2–321 FebDundee FC (H)xG 0.46–3.99
  3. L0–215 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.62–2.46
  4. L0–331 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 1.01–2.55
  5. W6–224 JanLivingston (H)xG 3.08–2.01
  6. L0–211 JanRangers (H)xG 0.32–1.94

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsAberdeen
Position1st8th
Played2827
Won, drawn, lost18–⁠6–⁠48–⁠5–⁠14
Points60 (2.14 per game)29 (1.07 per game)
Expected Points per game1.701.16
Goals51–⁠2428–⁠38
xG per game1.61–⁠1.041.24–⁠1.67
Home: points, xG per game2.43, 1.65–⁠0.961.23, 1.46–⁠1.62
Away: points, xG per game1.86, 1.57–⁠1.120.93, 1.05–⁠1.72
ManagerDerek McInnes (28)Peter Leven (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackHearts1.46, 5thAberdeen1.12, 9thDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.11, 4thAberdeen1.54, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts attack: 1.46Aberdeen attack: 1.121.461.12AberdeenHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHearts defence: 1.11Aberdeen defence: 1.541.541.11

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsAberdeen
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+13%−17%−15%+2%
Counter-attacksaverage−26%+12%+31%
Set pieces+25%−26%−3%+54%
Penalties−2%−100%−49%+2%
Headers+19%average−32%+32%
Left side+12%−19%+25%+10%
Centre+24%−27%−18%+25%
Right side−2%−6%−23%+17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdAberdeen concededLeft side+12%+17%Centre+24%+25%Right side−2%+10%Open play+13%+2%Counter-attacksaverage+31%Set pieces+25%+54%Headers+19%+32%

Aberdeen attacking

Aberdeen createdHearts concededLeft side+25%−6%Centre−18%−27%Right side−23%−19%Open play−15%−17%Counter-attacks+12%−26%Set pieces−3%−26%Headers−32%average

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsAberdeen

1.61xG1.24
1.04xG against1.67
53%Possession49%
14.0Shots12.1
10.1Shots against15.3
5.0Shots on target3.9
2.5Big chances1.9
27.1Touches in the opposition box21.6
415Passes401
76%Pass accuracy78%
5.4Corners4.9
59%Field tilt46%
40.2Final-third entries36.9
12.6Box entries11.1
12.0Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.280.93
Ahead341.961.17
Behind131.811.03

Aberdeen

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.191.55
Ahead140.981.53
Behind291.451.94

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.134–3
16–300.210.1010–5
31–450.280.198–5
46–600.300.1510–4
61–750.180.187–2
76–900.440.2812–5

Aberdeen

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.192–4
16–300.140.225–6
31–450.270.384–7
46–600.190.321–6
61–750.220.277–5
76–900.300.309–10

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 22Clark 4Gordon 2McEntee 12Steinwender 9Kent 3Halkett 23Kent 3Steinwender 2Findlay 27Shankland 1Milne 14Kingsley 9McCart 2Milne 7Kyziridis 5Braga 4Baningime 12McEntee 7Leonard 6Devlin 20Magnússon 6Spittal 4Kyziridis 19Braga 4Milne 3Shankland 20Kaboré 7Findlay 1Braga 17Magnússon 4Milne 14-4-2 in 11 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Aberdeen

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTMitov 24Bråtveit 3Devlin 13Jensen 9Lobban 5Milne 21Morrison 3Devlin 2Knoester 23McIntyre 3Gyamfi 7Shinnie 4Frame 4Armstrong 9Aouchiche 7Nilsen 4Shinnie 12Polvara 7Palaversa 3Devlin 6Milanovic 5Bilalovic 3Aouchiche 7Armstrong 4Cameron 3Karlsson 13Keskinen 8Armstrong 3Nisbet 15Lazetic 8Yengi 34-2-3-1 in 9 of 27 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (9), 3-4-2-1 (7), 4-1-4-1 (4), 3-4-3 (4), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 November 2025Aberdeen1–0HeartsxG 0.56–2.30
4 August 2025Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.03–1.40
12 January 2025Aberdeen0–0HeartsxG 1.10–1.54
1 December 2024Hearts1–1AberdeenxG 1.15–0.62
6 October 2024Aberdeen3–2HeartsxG 0.69–2.02
27 January 2024Hearts2–0AberdeenxG 1.58–0.93

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 6, Aberdeen won 6, and 3 were drawn. Goals 21–16 and xG 1.49–1.06 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kaboré9802410.580.08
Braga252,1081130.430.12
Shankland211,8341120.400.12
Kyziridis242,071460.220.29

Aberdeen

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nisbet161,344510.350.11
Karlsson161,292500.340.12
Armstrong181,544140.170.21
Aouchiche161,280300.230.09

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.