Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hearts 2–1 Rangers

Sunday 21 December 2025, 13:30 · Tynecastle Park · Round 18 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,829

Hearts Findlay 38', Shankland 42'

Rangers Chermiti 90+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HeartsRangers
Goals21
xG1.702.33
Expected Points0.931.83

Hearts 23%Draw 25%Rangers 53%

Most likely score 2–2, 11%. Final score 2–1, 6%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+2%4%3%1%2%7%4%1%1%6%4%3%5%5%2%1%1%11%9%11%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTBaningime on for Magnússon and Forrest on for Braga, 83'McCart on for Kingsley, 88'Kerjota on for Kyziridis, 89'Kabangu on for Shankland, 90+3'Chermiti on for Diomande, 46'Gassama on for Tavernier, 63'Aasgaard on for Barron and Danilo on for Miovski, 74'Nsiala on for Sterling, 81'Findlay 38'Shankland 42'Chermiti 90+5'Rangers 2.33Hearts 1.7001230153045607590HTBaningime on for Magnússon and Forrest on for Braga, 83'McCart on for Kingsley, 88'Kerjota on for Kyziridis, 89'Kabangu on for Shankland, 90+3'Chermiti on for Diomande, 46'Gassama on for Tavernier, 63'Aasgaard on for Barron and Danilo on for Miovski, 74'Nsiala on for Sterling, 81'Findlay 38'Shankland 42'Chermiti 90+5'2.331.70HeartsRangers

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HeartsRangers

1.70 +0.03xG2.33 +0.80
1.94 −0.12xG on target0.74 −1.20
14 −1Shots11 −4
5 −0.2Shots on target2 −3.5
4 +1.7Big chances4 +1.9
25 −4Touches in the opposition box28 0
42% −11Possession58% −4
321 −115Passes424 −98
72% −4Pass accuracy77% −8
42% −19Field tilt58% −10
30 −13Final-third entries37 −16
13 −1Box entries12 −4
13.5 +2Passes per defensive action13.3 +2
6 +0.2Corners10 +3.6
13 −6Tackles15 −1
11 +2.2Interceptions4 −3.7
37 +6Clearances26 0
1 −1.2Saves3 +0.2
12 0Fouls10 −2
0 −1.4Offsides2 +0.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hearts

Shankland 60', 0.59 xGShankland 69', 0.30 xGKent 71', 0.15 xGShankland 65', 0.09 xGBraga 50', 0.08 xGKyziridis 25', 0.07 xGKent 28', 0.07 xGKyziridis 61', 0.05 xGFindlay 45', 0.04 xGForrest 89', 0.04 xGKyziridis 17', 0.03 xGDevlin 90', 0.01 xGFindlay 38', 0.12 xG, goalShankland 42', 0.05 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals82%1.39 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.39 xG, 1 goal15%0.26 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.26 xG, 1 goal2%0.04 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Rangers

Raskin 20', 0.48 xGFernandez 10', 0.37 xGFernandez 75', 0.37 xGFernandez 71', 0.22 xGMoore 23', 0.06 xGBarron 59', 0.06 xGDanilo 75', 0.06 xGMeghoma 23', 0.04 xGRaskin 24', 0.02 xGTavernier 62', 0.02 xGChermiti 90+5', 0.63 xG, goal41%0.96 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.96 xG, 0 goals49%1.14 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 1.14 xG, 1 goal3%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals8%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HeartsRangers

0.85 5 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.40 5 shots, 0 goals
0.40 3 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.63 1 shot, 1 goal
0.45 6 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces1.30 5 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
38 min (40%) · Hearts 0.28, Rangers 0.97 xG
Hearts ahead
58 min (60%) · Hearts 1.41, Rangers 1.36 xG

Line-ups

2515219331148922109SchwolowSteinwenderKentFindlayKingsleyMcEnteeDevlinKyziridisMagnússonBragaShanklandGoalYellow cardGoal88'89'83'83'90+3'Hearts 4-2-3-1Derek McInnes122137343810304728ButlandTavernierSterlingFernandezAaronsRaskinBarronDiomandeMeghomaMooreMiovskiYellow card63'81'74'46'74'Rangers 3-5-2Danny Röhl

Hearts substitutes

  • 83' Forrest for Braga
  • 83' Baningime for Magnússon · yellow card 90+2'
  • 88' McCart for Kingsley
  • 89' Kerjota for Kyziridis
  • 90+3' Kabangu for Shankland

Rangers substitutes

  • 46' Chermiti for Diomande · goal 90+5'
  • 63' Gassama for Tavernier
  • 74' Aasgaard for Barron · 1 assist
  • 74' Danilo for Miovski
  • 81' Nsiala for Sterling

Players

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchwolowGK900.000.0000.0240
SteinwenderRB900.000.0200.0778
KentCB900.220.0010.02110
FindlayCB9010.160.0100.06211
KingsleyLB880.000.0610.0346
McEntee DM900.000.0920.1046
DevlinDM900.010.0100.0028
KyziridisRW8910.150.4830.3293
MagnússonAM830.000.0310.0645
BragaLW8310.080.0730.0423
ShanklandST9011.040.0510.1632
ForrestMF70.040.0000.0000
Baningime MF70.000.000−0.0101
McCartDF20.000.0000.0001
KerjotaFW10.000.0110.0110
KabanguFW00.000.000––0

Rangers

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
ButlandGK900.000.0000.0320
TavernierCB630.020.4330.0222
SterlingCB810.000.0300.0638
FernandezCB900.960.0100.02010
AaronsRWB900.000.3710.2164
RaskinCM900.500.0800.25109
BarronCM740.060.0500.0743
DiomandeCM460.000.001−0.0112
MeghomaLWB900.040.0100.0334
Moore ST900.060.0100.0760
MiovskiST740.000.0000.0001
ChermitiFW4410.630.0010.0110
GassamaFW270.000.0100.0650
AasgaardMF1610.000.2720.0510
DaniloFW160.060.0000.0202
NsialaDF90.000.0000.0112

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hearts

Schwolow and Findlay: 4 passesKent and Kyziridis: 4 passesKingsley and Kyziridis: 4 passesKingsley and Magnússon: 4 passesMagnússon and Braga: 4 passesSchwolow and McEntee: 5 passesDevlin and Kyziridis: 5 passesKingsley and Devlin: 6 passesKingsley and Braga: 6 passesKingsley and Shankland: 6 passesMcEntee and Kyziridis: 6 passesMcEntee and Shankland: 6 passesKyziridis and Shankland: 6 passesSteinwender and Devlin: 7 passesSteinwender and McEntee: 7 passesSteinwender and Shankland: 7 passesFindlay and Devlin: 7 passesKyziridis and Braga: 7 passesKent and Devlin: 8 passesSchwolow and Kent: 9 passesMagnússon and Shankland: 9 passesBraga and Shankland: 10 passesSteinwender and Kent: 12 passesKent and Findlay: 12 passesSteinwender and Kyziridis: 13 passesFindlay and Kingsley: 16 passesSchwolow: 14 completed passesSteinwender: 27 completed passesKent: 29 completed passesFindlay: 25 completed passesKingsley: 26 completed passesDevlin: 26 completed passesMcEntee: 12 completed passesKyziridis: 23 completed passesMagnússon: 18 completed passesBraga: 10 completed passesShankland: 19 completed passes2515219314318922109SchwolowSteinwenderKentFindlayKingsleyDevlinMcEnteeKyziridisMagnússonBragaShanklandStarters until 83' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Rangers

Butland and Miovski: 3 passesFernandez and Diomande: 4 passesSterling and Raskin: 4 passesMiovski and Moore: 4 passesButland and Tavernier: 5 passesButland and Sterling: 5 passesFernandez and Meghoma: 5 passesBarron and Raskin: 5 passesAarons and Raskin: 5 passesAarons and Moore: 5 passesRaskin and Diomande: 5 passesFernandez and Sterling: 6 passesBarron and Aarons: 6 passesTavernier and Sterling: 7 passesTavernier and Barron: 7 passesDiomande and Meghoma: 8 passesTavernier and Aarons: 9 passesTavernier and Raskin: 10 passesButland and Fernandez: 12 passesButland: 13 completed passesFernandez: 19 completed passesTavernier: 22 completed passesSterling: 14 completed passesBarron: 16 completed passesAarons: 12 completed passesRaskin: 16 completed passesDiomande: 10 completed passesMeghoma: 8 completed passesMiovski: 6 completed passesMoore: 5 completed passes137221834310302847ButlandFernandezTavernierSterlingBarronAaronsRaskinDiomandeMeghomaMiovskiMooreStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hearts

FromToPasses
SteinwenderKyziridis10
KingsleyFindlay9
KentSteinwender8
SchwolowMcEntee7
KentFindlay7

Rangers

FromToPasses
SterlingRaskin12
FernandezButland11
SterlingAarons10
AaronsTavernier10
AaronsSterling10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hearts

3−1.110+3.813+2.16−0.17+3.65−2.37−0.911+4.212+2.98+1.15−1.08+0.59+3.73−2.67+2.54+1.32−2.34−0.62−0.80−2.51−0.82+0.36+2.92+1.00−0.60−0.20−0.510.02−4.11−4.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Rangers

2−1.75−0.211−1.98+2.54−1.64−1.78+2.54−0.75−2.14−4.25+0.61−3.88+3.711+6.22−3.53−0.25+1.43−0.10−3.62−2.63+0.25+3.70−1.60−1.30−2.40−0.30−0.60−1.01+0.51+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 16 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hearts

0.010.010.010.040.010.010.010.040.010.020.020.080.030.040.010.020.020.050.070.050.030.020.080.030.18LessMore

Rangers

0.010.010.010.050.030.010.020.070.020.120.010.020.120.060.010.030.010.060.030.010.02−0.03−0.01−0.010.18LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHearts1.51 → 1.51Rangers1.75 → 1.75Defence (lower is better)Hearts1.06 → 1.08Rangers0.99 → 1.00

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hearts
Title14%21%+7
Rangers
Title7%4%−3
Celtic
Title78%75%−3

From the forecast before the match (21 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HeartsRangers
Expected goals1.311.27
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.391.33
Clean sheet28%27%

Hearts 37%Draw 28%Rangers 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Rangers goalsHearts goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%6%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHearts winDrawRangers win
Hearts
Title14%21%13%9%
Rangers
Title7%4%5%11%
Celtic
Title78%75%82%80%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hearts

  1. W2–013 DecFalkirk (A)xG 1.51–1.03
  2. W2–17 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.52–1.87
  3. D1–13 DecKilmarnock (H)xG 2.19–1.80
  4. D0–029 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.41–0.58
  5. L0–123 NovAberdeen (A)xG 2.30–0.56
  6. D1–19 NovDundee United (H)xG 0.45–0.34

Rangers

  1. W1–015 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.84–0.55
  2. W3–06 DecKilmarnock (A)xG 0.75–0.66
  3. D2–23 DecDundee United (A)xG 4.79–1.38
  4. D0–030 NovFalkirk (H)xG 2.24–0.12
  5. W2–122 NovLivingston (H)xG 1.39–1.37
  6. W3–09 NovDundee FC (A)xG 0.85–0.43

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HeartsRangers
Position1st4th
Played1716
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠5–⁠17–⁠8–⁠1
Points38 (2.24 per game)29 (1.81 per game)
Expected Points per game1.871.64
Goals34–⁠1323–⁠13
xG per game1.67–⁠0.881.53–⁠1.04
Home: points, xG per game2.25, 1.70–⁠0.891.62, 1.46–⁠0.86
Away: points, xG per game2.22, 1.65–⁠0.872.00, 1.60–⁠1.23
ManagerDerek McInnes (17)Danny Röhl (8)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackHearts1.51, 3rdRangers1.75, 2ndDefence (lower is better)Hearts1.06, 3rdRangers0.99, 2nd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts attack: 1.51Rangers attack: 1.751.751.51RangersHeartsDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecHearts defence: 1.06Rangers defence: 0.991.060.99

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HeartsRangers
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+13%−11%+28%−43%
Counter-attacks+7%−81%−17%−23%
Set pieces+62%−42%−6%+21%
Penalties+4%−100%+10%−26%
Headers+52%−38%+11%−4%
Left side+18%−28%+45%−21%
Centre+47%−36%+5%−26%
Right side−13%−12%−1%−19%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdRangers concededLeft side+18%−19%Centre+47%−26%Right side−13%−21%Open play+13%−43%Counter-attacks+7%−23%Set pieces+62%+21%Headers+52%−4%

Rangers attacking

Rangers createdHearts concededLeft side+45%−12%Centre+5%−36%Right side−1%−28%Open play+28%−11%Counter-attacks−17%−81%Set pieces−6%−42%Headers+11%−38%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HeartsRangers

1.67xG1.53
0.88xG against1.04
53%Possession62%
14.6Shots15.2
9.1Shots against10.2
5.2Shots on target5.5
2.3Big chances2.1
29.3Touches in the opposition box28.1
436Passes522
77%Pass accuracy85%
5.8Corners6.4
61%Field tilt68%
43.2Final-third entries52.9
13.6Box entries15.6
11.6Passes per defensive action10.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.330.68
Ahead342.011.10
Behind102.050.96

Rangers

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.650.88
Ahead350.971.17
Behind132.661.21

xG by period

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.123–1
16–300.210.075–4
31–450.260.215–3
46–600.340.118–2
61–750.180.116–1
76–900.490.267–2

Rangers

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.106–1
16–300.230.203–2
31–450.290.093–2
46–600.180.172–1
61–750.220.201–5
76–900.400.288–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTSchwolow 13Clark 4McEntee 10Steinwender 3Kent 3Halkett 14Steinwender 2Kent 1Findlay 16Shankland 1Milne 7Kingsley 7Devlin 2Milne 6Braga 4Kyziridis 3Baningime 7McEntee 4Magnússon 3Devlin 15Spittal 4Kyziridis 10Milne 3Braga 2Shankland 15Kaboré 4Findlay 1Braga 8Magnússon 2McEntee 14-4-2 in 10 of 17 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (10), 3-5-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Rangers

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTButland 16Tavernier 11Aarons 3Djiga 1Djiga 10Souttar 11Fernandez 6Cornelius 5Meghoma 11Aarons 2Miovski 1Raskin 11Rothwell 4Barron 8Diomande 7Aasgaard 2Antman 6Gassama 5Danilo 2Aasgaard 5Diomande 2Cameron 2Gassama 7Moore 4Bajrami 2Miovski 9Danilo 3Chermiti 24-2-3-1 in 10 of 16 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 3-4-3 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 September 2025Rangers0–2HeartsxG 1.11–2.37
16 February 2025Hearts1–3RangersxG 2.61–1.58
10 November 2024Rangers1–0HeartsxG 2.17–0.59
3 August 2024Hearts0–0RangersxG 1.32–0.75
18 May 2024Hearts3–3RangersxG 2.06–1.99
24 February 2024Rangers5–0HeartsxG 1.47–0.60

16 league meetings since 2020/21: Hearts won 1, Rangers won 11, and 4 were drawn. Goals 11–36 and xG 1.03–2.27 per game.

Key players

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Braga141,242810.550.15
Kyziridis131,187340.140.37
Shankland161,420810.370.10
Magnússon5492100.320.03

Rangers

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Tavernier111,111430.220.24
Miovski10808310.370.09
Gassama131,192110.260.16
Danilo6505200.270.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.