Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 1–2 Celtic

Sunday 30 November 2025, 12:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 14 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 18,419

Hibernian Boyle 56' (pen)

Celtic Maeda 27', Engels 28'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianCeltic
Goals12
xG1.651.33
Non-penalty xG0.861.33
Expected Points1.611.02

Hibernian 41%Draw 37%Celtic 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 23%. Final score 1–2, 11%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+4%2%3%11%2%3%12%2%1%7%4%1%23%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTIredale on for N. Cadden, 38'Campbell on for Obita, 67'Newell on for Chaiwa, Barlaser on for Mulligan, and Youan on for Boyle, 79'Ralston on for Donovan, 46'Tierney on for Saracchi and Nygren on for McCowan, 63'Bernardo on for Hatate, 77'Tounekti on for Yang, 86'Boyle 56' (pen)Maeda 27'Engels 28'Hibernian 1.65Celtic 1.3300.511.520153045607590HTIredale on for N. Cadden, 38'Campbell on for Obita, 67'Newell on for Chaiwa, Barlaser on for Mulligan, and Youan on for Boyle, 79'Ralston on for Donovan, 46'Tierney on for Saracchi and Nygren on for McCowan, 63'Bernardo on for Hatate, 77'Tounekti on for Yang, 86'Boyle 56' (pen)Maeda 27'Engels 28'1.651.33HibernianCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianCeltic

1.65 −0.18xG1.33 −0.81
0.86Non-penalty xG1.33
1.03 −0.56xG on target1.19 −0.94
9 −4Shots6 −11
4 −1.3Shots on target2 −3.6
3 +0.2Big chances3 −0.8
25 +1Touches in the opposition box19 −17
40% −9Possession60% −11
358 −55Passes565 −95
79% −2Pass accuracy86% −1
48% 0Field tilt52% −27
27 −10Final-third entries33 −39
9 −2Box entries11 −11
33.6 +15.1Passes per defensive action13.6 +4.8
4 −1.1Corners3 −4.7
6 −5Tackles14 +1
4 −3.8Interceptions6 −1.2
22 −6Clearances29 +2
0 −3.1Saves3 +1.2
9 −2Fouls18 +5
4 +2.1Offsides2 +0.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Boyle 12', 0.41 xGC. Cadden 86', 0.13 xGBushiri 2', 0.12 xGCampbell 87', 0.07 xGMcGrath 13', 0.06 xGMcGrath 9', 0.04 xGBoyle 3', 0.02 xGChaiwa 45+2', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals85%0.73 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.73 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals12%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Saracchi 43', 0.10 xGMcGregor 20', 0.09 xGYang 66', 0.04 xGMcGregor 89', 0.02 xGMaeda 27', 0.86 xG, goalEngels 28', 0.22 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals88%1.17 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 1.17 xG, 2 goals11%0.14 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianCeltic

0.67 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play1.31 5 shots, 2 goals
0.19 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.02 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
27 min (29%) · Hibernian 0.65, Celtic 0.94 xG
Celtic ahead
65 min (71%) · Hibernian 1.00, Celtic 0.38 xG

Line-ups

1533211220141917109SallingerO'HoraBushiriObitaC. CaddenMulliganChaiwaN. CaddenMcGrathBoyleBowieYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal67'79'79'38'79'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray1516536274241143813SchmeichelDonovanTrustyScalesSaracchiEngelsMcGregorHatateMcCowanMaedaYangYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal46'63'77'63'86'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill

Hibernian substitutes

  • 38' Iredale for N. Cadden
  • 67' Campbell for Obita
  • 79' Barlaser for Mulligan
  • 79' Newell for Chaiwa
  • 79' Youan for Boyle

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Ralston for Donovan
  • 63' Tierney for Saracchi
  • 63' Nygren for McCowan
  • 77' Bernardo for Hatate
  • 86' Tounekti for Yang

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0221
O'HoraCB900.000.0100.0557
BushiriCB900.120.0000.0126
Obita CB670.000.1410.2794
C. CaddenRWB900.130.0400.0441
MulliganCM790.000.0420.0133
Chaiwa CM790.010.010−0.0302
N. CaddenLWB380.000.1710.2051
McGrath AM900.100.1210.0432
BoyleST7911.220.000−0.0610
BowieST900.000.1210.0122
IredaleDF520.000.0400.1021
CampbellMF230.070.0000.0211
BarlaserMF110.000.0200.0211
NewellMF110.000.0000.0002
YouanFW110.000.0000.0000

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Schmeichel GK900.000.0000.0112
Donovan RB460.000.0100.0123
TrustyCB900.000.0100.0318
Scales CB900.000.0100.11412
SaracchiLB630.100.0200.1092
EngelsCM9010.220.2300.0016
McGregorCM900.100.0500.1345
HatateCM7710.000.3410.1551
McCowanRW630.000.1010.0331
MaedaST9010.860.0510.0114
YangLW860.040.0200.0491
RalstonDF440.000.0000.0113
TierneyDF270.000.0110.0420
NygrenFW270.000.0000.0010
BernardoMF130.000.000−0.0202
TounektiFW40.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

O'Hora and Boyle: 3 passesObita and Bowie: 3 passesC. Cadden and Boyle: 3 passesMulligan and McGrath: 3 passesN. Cadden and McGrath: 3 passesSallinger and Bushiri: 4 passesSallinger and O'Hora: 4 passesBushiri and Chaiwa: 4 passesO'Hora and Bowie: 4 passesObita and Chaiwa: 4 passesChaiwa and Mulligan: 4 passesChaiwa and N. Cadden: 4 passesN. Cadden and Bowie: 4 passesSallinger and Obita: 5 passesObita and McGrath: 5 passesO'Hora and Chaiwa: 6 passesO'Hora and Mulligan: 8 passesC. Cadden and Mulligan: 9 passesO'Hora and C. Cadden: 13 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 19 passesObita and N. Cadden: 19 passesBushiri and Obita: 22 passesSallinger: 9 completed passesBushiri: 28 completed passesO'Hora: 33 completed passesObita: 35 completed passesC. Cadden: 15 completed passesChaiwa: 15 completed passesMulligan: 18 completed passesN. Cadden: 18 completed passesMcGrath: 7 completed passesBoyle: 4 completed passesBowie: 4 completed passes1335211214201917109SallingerBushiriO'HoraObitaC. CaddenChaiwaMulliganN. CaddenMcGrathBoyleBowieStarters until 38' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Donovan and Maeda: 4 passesScales and Maeda: 4 passesTrusty and Saracchi: 4 passesSaracchi and Hatate: 4 passesEngels and Hatate: 4 passesDonovan and Engels: 5 passesDonovan and Hatate: 5 passesTrusty and Hatate: 5 passesDonovan and McGregor: 6 passesScales and Hatate: 6 passesSaracchi and Maeda: 6 passesSaracchi and Yang: 6 passesHatate and McGregor: 6 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 7 passesHatate and McCowan: 7 passesMcGregor and McCowan: 7 passesSchmeichel and Saracchi: 9 passesTrusty and McGregor: 9 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 10 passesScales and McGregor: 10 passesDonovan and McCowan: 11 passesSaracchi and McGregor: 12 passesScales and Trusty: 20 passesDonovan and Trusty: 26 passesScales and Saracchi: 32 passesSchmeichel: 20 completed passesDonovan: 30 completed passesScales: 45 completed passesTrusty: 39 completed passesSaracchi: 36 completed passesEngels: 10 completed passesHatate: 22 completed passesMcGregor: 29 completed passesMcCowan: 18 completed passesMaeda: 9 completed passesYang: 8 completed passes1515636274142143813SchmeichelDonovanScalesTrustySaracchiEngelsHatateMcGregorMcCowanMaedaYangStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
BushiriO'Hora16
O'HoraC. Cadden13
BushiriObita12
ObitaN. Cadden11
O'HoraBushiri11

Celtic

FromToPasses
SaracchiScales27
ScalesSaracchi19
TrustyDonovan17
ScalesMcGregor17
ScalesTrusty17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

2−1.05−0.45−2.13−1.16−0.66−0.67+0.84−1.73−1.12−1.35+1.58+4.41−3.13−1.03+0.62−0.14+0.71−1.12+0.40−1.03+2.15+2.91+0.44+3.50−0.40−0.61+0.38−5.00−5.50−5.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Celtic

4+1.47+3.012−0.55−0.86+2.010+4.74−1.62−4.09+1.65−2.55+0.840.03+0.23−2.83−3.38+3.85+1.84+0.64+0.81−0.64+1.90−1.70−3.71−2.00−1.00−0.62+1.31+0.80−1.20−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.010.030.020.010.010.01−0.010.040.010.010.010.050.01−0.010.10−0.05−0.100.140.190.18LessMore

Celtic

0.01−0.010.04−0.010.010.040.010.030.020.010.02−0.01−0.050.010.050.050.060.060.060.060.060.050.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.53 → 1.52Celtic2.22 → 2.18Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.17 → 1.16Celtic0.82 → 0.83

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Title<1%<1%0
Top six94%92%−2
Celtic
Title90%93%+3
Hearts
Title7%5%−2
Falkirk
Top six52%53%+1

From the forecast before the match (30 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianCeltic
Expected goals1.091.71
Win24%51%
Expected Points0.961.79
Clean sheet18%34%

Hibernian 24%Draw 25%Celtic 51%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 55%.

Celtic goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%5%2%6%6%2%4%6%5%3%1%1%2%2%1%10%9%12%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawCeltic win
Hibernian
Title<1%1%<1%<1%
Top six94%97%95%92%
Celtic
Title90%86%89%93%
Hearts
Title7%9%8%5%
Falkirk
Top six52%51%49%53%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–225 NovMotherwell (A)xG 0.77–2.14
  2. W2–022 NovDundee FC (H)xG 2.26–0.56
  3. W3–08 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.62–0.78
  4. D2–21 NovLivingston (A)xG 0.76–1.87
  5. L0–129 OctRangers (H)xG 2.01–0.52
  6. W2–126 OctAberdeen (A)xG 3.20–1.24

Celtic

  1. W1–022 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.88–1.53
  2. W4–09 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 2.85–0.38
  3. W4–029 OctFalkirk (H)xG 4.29–0.47
  4. L1–326 OctHearts (A)xG 0.88–1.57
  5. L0–219 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.70–1.30
  6. W3–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.62–1.39

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianCeltic
Position4th2nd
Played1412
Won, drawn, lost5–⁠6–⁠38–⁠2–⁠2
Points21 (1.50 per game)26 (2.17 per game)
Expected Points per game1.842.06
Goals23–⁠1621–⁠8
xG per game1.83–⁠1.152.14–⁠0.85
Home: points, xG per game1.50, 2.38–⁠0.862.67, 2.83–⁠0.57
Away: points, xG per game1.50, 1.41–⁠1.371.67, 1.44–⁠1.13
ManagerDavid Gray (54)Martin O'Neill (3)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackHibernian1.53, 4thCeltic2.22, 1stDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.17, 4thCeltic0.82, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovHibernian attack: 1.53Celtic attack: 2.222.221.53CelticHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovHibernian defence: 1.17Celtic defence: 0.821.170.82

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play+7%+2%+116%−58%
Counter-attacks+136%−1%−12%−31%
Set pieces+34%−54%−23%−11%
Penalties+56%−22%+36%−9%
Headers+28%−25%+59%−21%
Left side+64%+27%+70%−60%
Centre+29%−30%+68%−30%
Right side+5%−20%+30%−49%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdCeltic concededLeft side+64%−49%Centre+29%−30%Right side+5%−60%Open play+7%−58%Counter-attacks+136%−31%Set pieces+34%−11%Headers+28%−21%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdHibernian concededLeft side+70%−20%Centre+68%−30%Right side+30%+27%Open play+116%+2%Counter-attacks−12%−1%Set pieces−23%−54%Headers+59%−25%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianCeltic

1.83xG2.14
1.15xG against0.85
49%Possession71%
13.1Shots17.3
11.0Shots against7.2
5.3Shots on target5.6
2.8Big chances3.8
24.2Touches in the opposition box36.3
413Passes660
81%Pass accuracy88%
5.1Corners7.7
48%Field tilt79%
36.5Final-third entries71.6
11.0Box entries22.1
18.5Passes per defensive action8.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.371.14
Ahead332.051.21
Behind162.601.05

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level551.810.75
Ahead242.620.82
Behind112.741.42

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.092–2
16–300.310.187–2
31–450.270.283–5
46–600.470.135–2
61–750.270.121–2
76–900.300.355–3

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.122–1
16–300.380.033–1
31–450.390.211–2
46–600.280.204–3
61–750.330.074–0
76–900.580.207–1

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 10Smith 4Bushiri 10O'Hora 8Hanley 11Iredale 12Obita 1C. Cadden 10Mulligan 4Mulligan 9Chaiwa 3Barlaser 7McGrath 5Levitt 4N. Cadden 9Obita 5Boyle 4McGrath 4Barlaser 3Bowie 12Klidje 5Boyle 6Hoilett 3McGrath 23-4-1-2 in 5 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-1-4-2 (3), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 12Ralston 7Donovan 2Johnston 2Carter-Vickers 7Trusty 3Murray 2Scales 12Tierney 6Saracchi 5Inamura 1Engels 6Nygren 5McCowan 4McGregor 11Bernardo 1Hatate 9Maeda 3Nygren 3Tounekti 2Kenny 4Iheanacho 3Maeda 2Tounekti 6Maeda 3Balikwisha 24-3-3 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 September 2025Celtic0–0HibernianxG 2.80–0.70
10 May 2025Celtic3–1HibernianxG 2.26–0.82
22 February 2025Hibernian2–1CelticxG 0.67–1.78
7 December 2024Celtic3–0HibernianxG 3.83–2.34
11 August 2024Hibernian0–2CelticxG 0.10–2.60
7 February 2024Hibernian1–2CelticxG 1.00–2.07

19 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 2, Celtic won 11, and 6 were drawn. Goals 15–41 and xG 0.96–2.44 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Klidje5521210.690.05
McGrath11914520.340.21
Boyle10835200.430.12
Bowie12986430.360.18

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Nygren8737520.580.34
Maeda8740320.350.15
Tounekti8566100.220.25
Engels6561110.210.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.