Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 1–0 Dundee United

Saturday 1 February 2025, 17:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 25 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 5,661

Kilmarnock Watkins 72'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals10
xG1.391.46
Expected Points1.301.40

Kilmarnock 33%Draw 30%Dundee United 37%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–0, 7%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+4%7%6%2%7%11%4%1%5%10%9%3%2%4%3%1%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTPolworth on for Lyons, 32'Deas on for Magennis, 55'Anderson on for Armstrong, 71'Ramsay on for Watkins and Donnelly on for Watson, 90'Fiorini on for Stephenson and Moult on for Paton, 70'Trapanovski on for Campbell and Middleton on for Adegboyega, 82'Watkins 72'Dundee United 1.46Kilmarnock 1.3900.511.520153045607590HTPolworth on for Lyons, 32'Deas on for Magennis, 55'Anderson on for Armstrong, 71'Ramsay on for Watkins and Donnelly on for Watson, 90'Fiorini on for Stephenson and Moult on for Paton, 70'Trapanovski on for Campbell and Middleton on for Adegboyega, 82'Watkins 72'1.461.39KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

1.39 −0.01xG1.46 +0.04
1.73 +0.59xG on target0.42 −1.09
11 −2Shots15 +3
4 +0.2Shots on target1 −3.2
2 0.0Big chances2 0.0
19 −3Touches in the opposition box38 +14
41% −4Possession59% +16
292 −29Passes427 +104
60% −7Pass accuracy69% +1
35% −9Field tilt65% +25
36 +3Final-third entries55 +26
9 −1.4Box entries20 +10.4
18.9 +4Passes per defensive action14.3 −1
3 −2.9Corners4 −0.6
16 +2Tackles13 −4
11 +2.2Interceptions6 −1.9
66 +31Clearances40 0
1 −1.8Saves3 0.0
3 −8Fouls9 −2
1 −0.2Offsides1 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 72', 0.25 xGMurray 35', 0.17 xGWright 11', 0.10 xGWales 90+1', 0.09 xGArmstrong 19', 0.08 xGNdaba 11', 0.07 xGWatson 64', 0.06 xGWales 78', 0.04 xGArmstrong 54', 0.03 xGWales 61', 0.02 xGWatkins 72', 0.49 xG, goal35%0.49 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.49 xG, 1 goal49%0.68 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.68 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals14%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Strain 81', 0.49 xGCampbell 1', 0.25 xGPaton 44', 0.21 xGPaton 24', 0.14 xGDalby 38', 0.06 xGDalby 58', 0.05 xGCampbell 70', 0.04 xGDalby 88', 0.04 xGAdegboyega 17', 0.03 xGFerry 21', 0.03 xGStrain 47', 0.03 xGFiorini 70', 0.03 xGPaton 57', 0.02 xGHolt 85', 0.02 xGTrapanovski 90+6', 0.01 xG34%0.49 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.49 xG, 0 goals52%0.75 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.75 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals11%0.16 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

0.89 6 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.98 7 shots, 0 goals
0.12 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.03 1 shot, 0 goals
0.38 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.45 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
72 min (75%) · Kilmarnock 1.26, Dundee United 0.89 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
24 min (25%) · Kilmarnock 0.13, Dundee United 0.57 xG

Line-ups

18453111216152423O'HaraLyonsWrightMayoNdabaArmstrongWatsonMagennisMurrayWalesWatkinsYellow cardGoal32'71'90'55'90'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes123141116175221921WaltonStrainGallagherHoltFerryAdegboyegaStephensonSeveljCampbellDalbyPatonYellow cardYellow card82'70'82'70'Dundee United 4-4-2Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 32' Polworth for Lyons
  • 55' Deas for Magennis
  • 71' Anderson for Armstrong
  • 90' Ramsay for Watkins
  • 90' Donnelly for Watson

Dundee United substitutes

  • 70' Fiorini for Stephenson
  • 70' Moult for Paton
  • 82' Trapanovski for Campbell
  • 82' Middleton for Adegboyega

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0561
LyonsRB320.000.0000.0022
WrightCB900.100.1200.05319
MayoCB900.000.0000.04616
NdabaLB900.070.0210.09814
Armstrong RM710.100.1210.1474
WatsonCM900.060.0000.0117
MagennisCM550.000.0010.0116
MurrayLM900.170.1310.1944
WalesST900.150.0200.0144
WatkinsST9010.730.0610.1823
PolworthMF580.000.0200.0457
DeasDF350.000.0000.0005
AndersonFW190.000.0120.0520
RamsayDF00.000.0000.0005
DonnellyMF00.000.0000.0121

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0550
StrainRB900.520.0300.0984
GallagherCB900.000.0910.181215
HoltCB900.020.0300.1998
Ferry LB900.030.7150.40109
Adegboyega RM820.030.2000.20710
StephensonCM700.000.0400.0745
SeveljCM900.000.0210.0253
CampbellLM820.290.010−0.0110
DalbyST900.150.0720.1013
PatonST700.380.0600.0101
FioriniMF200.030.1310.1031
MoultFW200.000.1100.1100
TrapanovskiMF80.010.3400.0721
MiddletonFW80.000.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Armstrong and Magennis: 3 passesNdaba and Murray: 4 passesNdaba and Wales: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesMurray and Magennis: 4 passesMurray and Wales: 5 passesO'Hara: 5 completed passesNdaba: 9 completed passesWright: 8 completed passesMayo: 7 completed passesArmstrong: 8 completed passesMurray: 7 completed passesWatson: 1 completed passesMagennis: 9 completed passesLyons: 5 completed passesWales: 4 completed passesWatkins: 6 completed passes13451115121682423O'HaraNdabaWrightMayoArmstrongMurrayWatsonMagennisLyonsWalesWatkinsStarters until 32' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee United

Walton and Gallagher: 5 passesAdegboyega and Dalby: 5 passesGallagher and Stephenson: 5 passesGallagher and Ferry: 5 passesSevelj and Stephenson: 5 passesSevelj and Dalby: 5 passesStephenson and Dalby: 5 passesPaton and Dalby: 5 passesWalton and Holt: 6 passesAdegboyega and Sevelj: 6 passesHolt and Ferry: 6 passesGallagher and Sevelj: 6 passesCampbell and Paton: 6 passesAdegboyega and Stephenson: 7 passesGallagher and Strain: 7 passesFerry and Paton: 7 passesHolt and Sevelj: 8 passesHolt and Paton: 8 passesAdegboyega and Strain: 9 passesSevelj and Ferry: 9 passesStrain and Stephenson: 10 passesFerry and Dalby: 10 passesSevelj and Strain: 11 passesHolt and Gallagher: 13 passesStrain and Dalby: 13 passesWalton: 11 completed passesAdegboyega: 21 completed passesHolt: 25 completed passesGallagher: 28 completed passesSevelj: 31 completed passesStrain: 38 completed passesStephenson: 19 completed passesCampbell: 11 completed passesFerry: 26 completed passesPaton: 16 completed passesDalby: 16 completed passes116431521722112119WaltonAdegboyegaHoltGallagherSeveljStrainStephensonCampbellFerryPatonDalbyStarters until 70' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaWales9
WrightArmstrong6
O'HaraWright5
MurrayNdaba4
WalesMurray4

Dundee United

FromToPasses
StrainDalby12
SeveljFerry11
FerryDalby10
HoltFerry9
GallagherHolt9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

7+2.411+3.229+12.512+4.73−2.55−0.87−0.312+5.410+3.79+2.55−0.44+0.24+0.77+2.250.03−0.45+1.52−0.21−2.35+0.91−0.90−1.61+0.23+2.04+1.40−0.60−0.51+0.20−0.41+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Dundee United

3−1.76−2.911+1.23−3.510+4.27−0.690.09+1.613+7.97+2.80−3.98+2.411+5.76+2.75+2.00−2.23+0.62−1.32−0.31−0.13+1.910.03+1.40−1.30−0.20−0.70−0.30−0.812−7.21−6.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.010.010.010.020.010.030.040.010.030.050.020.010.060.140.010.010.02−0.01−0.02−0.010.170.21LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.020.010.030.010.010.040.060.110.050.020.120.070.030.130.010.100.040.060.080.02−0.030.050.150.180.19LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.22 → 1.23Dundee United1.22 → 1.21Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.35Dundee United1.34 → 1.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six12%18%+6
11th16%11%−5
Bottom3%2%−1
Dundee United
Top six98%96%−2
Ross County
Top six9%9%0
11th27%28%+1
Bottom7%7%0

From the forecast before the match (1 February 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.461.11
Win44%28%
Expected Points1.601.12
Clean sheet33%23%

Kilmarnock 44%Draw 27%Dundee United 28%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 52%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%4%2%1%2%11%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 1 February 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
Top six12%18%8%4%
11th16%11%18%22%
Bottom3%2%4%5%
Dundee United
Top six98%96%98%>99%
Ross County
Top six9%9%9%10%
11th27%28%27%24%
Bottom7%7%7%6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–325 JanHearts (A)xG 1.05–2.51
  2. D0–08 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.72–0.39
  3. L0–15 JanRoss County (H)xG 0.56–1.15
  4. W2–02 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.98–0.26
  5. L0–129 DecHibernian (A)xG 0.25–2.32
  6. W4–026 DecAberdeen (H)xG 4.02–0.50

Dundee United

  1. L1–326 JanRangers (H)xG 1.05–1.30
  2. W1–011 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.51–2.39
  3. L0–28 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.16–1.74
  4. L0–15 JanHearts (H)xG 0.66–0.85
  5. W2–12 JanDundee FC (A)xG 2.48–1.90
  6. W1–029 DecAberdeen (H)xG 2.29–0.91

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position11th3rd
Played2424
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠7–⁠1110–⁠7–⁠7
Points25 (1.04 per game)37 (1.54 per game)
Expected Points per game1.311.34
Goals27–⁠4032–⁠27
xG per game1.40–⁠1.521.42–⁠1.41
Home: points, xG per game1.45, 1.96–⁠1.131.50, 1.48–⁠1.14
Away: points, xG per game0.69, 0.92–⁠1.851.58, 1.35–⁠1.67
ManagerDerek McInnes (100)Jim Goodwin (36)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.22, 5thDundee United1.22, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36, 6thDundee United1.34, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 1.22Dundee United attack: 1.221.221.22Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.36Dundee United defence: 1.341.361.34

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−14%+10%−5%+5%
Counter-attacks−40%−12%−3%−24%
Set pieces+27%+18%+2%−16%
Penalties+19%−28%+19%+19%
Headers−5%+2%+33%−4%
Left side+7%−4%−18%+1%
Centre−12%+19%+16%−11%
Right side−1%+5%−28%+9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side+7%+9%Centre−12%−11%Right side−1%+1%Open play−14%+5%Counter-attacks−40%−24%Set pieces+27%−16%Headers−5%−4%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−18%+5%Centre+16%+19%Right side−28%−4%Open play−5%+10%Counter-attacks−3%−12%Set pieces+2%+18%Headers+33%+2%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

1.40xG1.42
1.52xG against1.41
45%Possession44%
13.0Shots11.7
13.2Shots against14.4
3.8Shots on target4.2
2.0Big chances2.0
21.7Touches in the opposition box23.5
321Passes324
67%Pass accuracy69%
5.9Corners4.6
44%Field tilt40%
32.8Final-third entries28.8
10.4Box entries9.6
15.3Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.411.55
Ahead141.681.28
Behind321.241.59

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level571.331.33
Ahead151.601.92
Behind181.531.22

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.230.262–3
16–300.190.223–6
31–450.160.232–7
46–600.170.265–7
61–750.280.236–7
76–900.360.329–10

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.142–2
16–300.220.204–4
31–450.160.252–5
46–600.210.186–3
61–750.190.283–7
76–900.470.3415–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 18O'Hara 6Mayo 6Lyons 6Armstrong 4Mayo 12Wright 11Deas 12Findlay 9Ndaba 4Ndaba 10Lyons 4Deas 3Armstrong 12Wright 3Murray 2Watson 12Murray 3Magennis 2Polworth 9Lyons 7Donnelly 7Kennedy 10Murray 5Ndaba 3Vassell 19Cameron 2Watkins 14Anderson 5Wales 34-4-2 in 11 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (11), 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-4-3 (2), 3-5-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalton 24Adegboyega 19Fotheringham 3Dalby 1Gallagher 22Holt 18Graham 7Strain 13Stephenson 8Sevelj 2Sevelj 12Sibbald 7Docherty 3Babunski 11Ferry 7Middleton 3Ferry 11Stephenson 4Fotheringham 2Middleton 8Stephenson 7Sevelj 5Trapanovski 9Ferry 4Moult 3Dalby 15van der Sande 7Middleton 13-4-2-1 in 7 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-4-3 (6), 4-4-1-1 (3), 3-5-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 December 2024Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.38–1.62
28 September 2024Kilmarnock3–3Dundee UnitedxG 2.31–2.73
24 May 2023Dundee United0–3KilmarnockxG 0.99–1.90
1 February 2023Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.71–1.37
9 November 2022Dundee United4–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.85
30 July 2022Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.24–0.38

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Dundee United won 2, and 4 were drawn. Goals 17–12 and xG 1.60–1.28 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson8804800.810.07
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Wales6593210.270.19
Watkins151,313310.380.05

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dalby181,6191100.480.05
Trapanovski10799110.290.14
Thomson5500100.240.06
Babunski161,203110.140.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.