Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Falkirk 5–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 28 February 2026, 15:00 · Falkirk Stadium · Round 29 · Half-time 3–1 · Referee Colin Steven · Attendance 7,646

Falkirk Schilte-Brown 1' (og), Tait 28', 56', Stewart 36', 50'

Kilmarnock Kiltie 40'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

FalkirkKilmarnock
Goals51
xG3.140.39
Expected Points2.900.06

Falkirk 95%Draw 4%Kilmarnock 1%

Most likely score 3–0, 21%. Final score 5–1, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+5%2%7%1%9%1%15%6%1%7%3%3%1%16%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTCartwright on for Spencer, 59'Neilson on for Donaldson, Williams on for Miller, and Ross on for Broggio, 75'Graham on for Stewart, 81'Polworth on for Anderson, 58'Watkins on for Curtis, 59'Brandon on for Schjønning-Larsen, 64'Tshibola on for Thompson and Clescenco on for Hugill, 78'Schilte-Brown 1' (og)Tait 28'Stewart 36'Stewart 50'Tait 56'Kiltie 40'Falkirk 3.14Kilmarnock 0.39012340153045607590HTCartwright on for Spencer, 59'Neilson on for Donaldson, Williams on for Miller, and Ross on for Broggio, 75'Graham on for Stewart, 81'Polworth on for Anderson, 58'Watkins on for Curtis, 59'Brandon on for Schjønning-Larsen, 64'Tshibola on for Thompson and Clescenco on for Hugill, 78'Schilte-Brown 1' (og)Tait 28'Stewart 36'Stewart 50'Tait 56'Kiltie 40'3.140.39FalkirkKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

FalkirkKilmarnock

3.14 +1.88xG0.39 −0.83
4.21 +3.05xG on target0.52 −0.67
19 +7Shots6 −5
10 +6.2Shots on target3 −0.8
4 +2.0Big chances0 −1.9
29 +9Touches in the opposition box11 −9
50% −1Possession50% +9
416 +14Passes422 +94
82% +5Pass accuracy79% +8
61% +14Field tilt39% 0
53 +17Final-third entries38 +6
15 +4.5Box entries7 −2.7
13.4 0Passes per defensive action12.3 −4
3 −1.7Corners2 −2.4
17 −2Tackles17 +2
11 +2.1Interceptions8 −0.4
22 −9Clearances21 −14
2 −1.2Saves6 +2.2
10 −2Fouls15 +2
2 0.0Offsides3 +1.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Falkirk

Stewart 66', 0.27 xGGraham 84', 0.27 xGBroggio 66', 0.17 xGRoss 90+2', 0.14 xGStewart 45+5', 0.10 xGStewart 45+3', 0.07 xGYeats 74', 0.07 xGTait 17', 0.06 xGBroggio 16', 0.05 xGYeats 82', 0.05 xGTait 27', 0.04 xGDonaldson 36', 0.04 xGSpencer 18', 0.03 xGStewart 28', 0.03 xGGraham 90+1', 0.03 xGTait 28', 0.95 xG, goalStewart 50', 0.59 xG, goalStewart 36', 0.09 xG, goalTait 56', 0.09 xG, goal66%2.08 xGSix-yard box: 4 shots, 2.08 xG, 2 goals23%0.71 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.71 xG, 1 goal4%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals8%0.24 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Polworth 87', 0.12 xGDeas 88', 0.06 xGSchjønning-Larsen 41', 0.04 xGPolworth 61', 0.03 xGWatson 37', 0.02 xGKiltie 40', 0.12 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals26%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals74%0.29 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

FalkirkKilmarnock

1.44 11 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.29 4 shots, 1 goal
0.53 3 shots, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
1.17 5 shots, 2 goalsSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
1 min (1%) · Falkirk 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Falkirk ahead
96 min (99%) · Falkirk 3.14, Kilmarnock 0.39 xG

Line-ups

192865382111142916BainLissahDonaldsonHendersonMcCannSpencerTaitBroggioYeatsMillerStewartYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoalGoalGoal75'59'75'75'81'Falkirk 4-2-3-1John McGlynn1321256352811121944RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonCurtisLyonsKiltieWatsonAndersonHugillOwn goalYellow cardGoalYellow card64'78'59'58'78'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann

Falkirk substitutes

  • 59' Cartwright for Spencer
  • 75' Neilson for Donaldson
  • 75' Ross for Broggio
  • 75' Williams for Miller
  • 81' Graham for Stewart

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 58' Polworth for Anderson
  • 59' Watkins for Curtis
  • 64' Brandon for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 78' Tshibola for Thompson
  • 78' Clescenco for Hugill

Players

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0441
LissahRB900.000.7220.40137
Donaldson CB7510.040.0110.0785
HendersonCB900.000.0110.04512
McCann LB900.000.1600.2566
Spencer DM590.030.0100.0115
TaitDM9021.150.0310.0773
BroggioRW7510.220.0420.1664
YeatsAM900.120.101−0.0623
MillerLW7510.000.5030.28101
StewartST8121.140.0100.0000
CartwrightMF310.000.0000.0002
NeilsonDF150.000.0000.0102
RossFW150.140.0000.0520
WilliamsFW150.000.0010.0012
GrahamFW90.300.0310.0210

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0110
Schjønning-LarsenRB640.040.0200.0543
Schilte-BrownCB900.000.0100.09105
Deas CB900.060.0100.07513
ThompsonLB780.000.0100.0045
CurtisRM590.000.0120.0064
LyonsCM900.000.0310.0683
Kiltie CM9010.120.1310.0021
WatsonLM900.020.0200.0533
AndersonST580.000.010−0.0100
HugillST780.000.0100.0222
PolworthMF320.150.0300.0411
WatkinsFW310.000.010−0.0103
BrandonDF260.000.010−0.0314
TshibolaMF120.000.0000.0101
ClescencoFW120.000.0010.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Falkirk

Lissah and McCann: 5 passesLissah and Tait: 5 passesTait and Spencer: 5 passesTait and Yeats: 5 passesYeats and Stewart: 5 passesBain and Donaldson: 6 passesLissah and Donaldson: 6 passesBroggio and Yeats: 6 passesBroggio and Miller: 6 passesTait and Miller: 7 passesSpencer and Miller: 8 passesYeats and Miller: 8 passesTait and Broggio: 10 passesBain and Lissah: 11 passesBain and Henderson: 11 passesLissah and Spencer: 11 passesHenderson and McCann: 12 passesMcCann and Spencer: 12 passesMcCann and Miller: 12 passesMcCann and Tait: 13 passesBain: 19 completed passesLissah: 20 completed passesHenderson: 20 completed passesDonaldson: 20 completed passesMcCann: 32 completed passesTait: 27 completed passesSpencer: 28 completed passesBroggio: 16 completed passesYeats: 20 completed passesMiller: 19 completed passesStewart: 6 completed passes192856321811142916BainLissahHendersonDonaldsonMcCannTaitSpencerBroggioYeatsMillerStewartStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Roos and Schjønning-Larsen: 3 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Deas: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Thompson: 3 passesThompson and Anderson: 3 passesLyons and Watson: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Watson: 4 passesThompson and Lyons: 4 passesDeas and Kiltie: 5 passesDeas and Lyons: 5 passesCurtis and Lyons: 5 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lyons: 6 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Hugill: 6 passesSchilte-Brown and Deas: 6 passesDeas and Watson: 6 passesCurtis and Watson: 6 passesKiltie and Lyons: 6 passesRoos and Schilte-Brown: 8 passesSchilte-Brown and Curtis: 8 passesRoos and Deas: 10 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Schilte-Brown: 10 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Curtis: 12 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 12 passesThompson and Watson: 12 passesDeas and Thompson: 15 passesRoos: 15 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 25 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 28 completed passesDeas: 26 completed passesThompson: 20 completed passesCurtis: 15 completed passesKiltie: 11 completed passesLyons: 25 completed passesWatson: 18 completed passesHugill: 4 completed passesAnderson: 4 completed passes1321256352118124419RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonCurtisKiltieLyonsWatsonHugillAndersonStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Falkirk

FromToPasses
McCannTait15
HendersonMcCann12
HendersonBain12
BainLissah12
McCannMiller8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
DeasThompson13
LyonsSchilte-Brown13
Schilte-BrownLyons12
Schilte-BrownDeas11
RoosSchilte-Brown10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Falkirk

4−2.811−4.15−2.83−2.16−3.16−1.011+4.57−0.380.05−1.811+6.46+2.99+4.89+2.77+3.03−1.03+0.99+6.26+1.81−2.92−0.11−0.33+0.91−1.40−1.10−0.31+0.40−0.20−0.81−6.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Kilmarnock

2−3.17−2.05−2.25+0.65−2.370.08+1.16−1.98+2.150.04−0.91−2.44−1.28+3.22−1.64+0.44+1.45+1.83−0.85+2.64+2.11−0.52+0.21−1.03+2.12+1.20−0.90−0.40−0.89−8.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 28 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.030.060.030.020.020.070.040.130.050.120.09−0.030.020.100.13−0.050.200.19LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.030.020.020.010.020.010.030.010.010.020.020.02−0.01−0.010.01−0.03−0.010.040.040.040.04LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackFalkirk1.22 → 1.30Kilmarnock1.10 → 1.08Defence (lower is better)Falkirk1.24 → 1.20Kilmarnock1.65 → 1.71

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Falkirk
Top six98%>99%+2
Kilmarnock
11th62%67%+5
Bottom6%7%+1
St. Mirren
11th20%16%−4
Dundee FC
11th8%6%−2

From the forecast before the match (28 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

FalkirkKilmarnock
Expected goals1.770.91
Win57%19%
Expected Points1.960.80
Clean sheet40%17%

Falkirk 57%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 19%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Kilmarnock goalsFalkirk goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%5%2%4%1%6%6%3%3%3%1%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 28 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowFalkirk winDrawKilmarnock win
Falkirk
Top six98%>99%98%96%
Kilmarnock
11th62%67%60%47%
Bottom6%7%5%3%
St. Mirren
11th20%16%21%29%
Dundee FC
11th8%6%8%12%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Falkirk

  1. L0–121 FebHearts (A)xG 0.74–1.10
  2. L2–314 FebDundee United (H)xG 0.94–1.09
  3. W1–011 FebDundee FC (H)xG 0.98–1.58
  4. W2–14 FebLivingston (A)xG 2.40–0.57
  5. L0–21 FebCeltic (A)xG 1.07–0.66
  6. W4–124 JanHibernian (H)xG 3.64–0.73

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–121 FebDundee United (A)xG 0.50–2.05
  2. L2–315 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.86–2.98
  3. W4–311 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.76–1.96
  4. L1–54 FebRangers (A)xG 1.39–3.14
  5. W3–031 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01
  6. L0–424 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–2.72

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

FalkirkKilmarnock
Position6th11th
Played2828
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠6–⁠114–⁠9–⁠15
Points39 (1.39 per game)21 (0.75 per game)
Expected Points per game1.400.97
Goals32–⁠3631–⁠55
xG per game1.26–⁠1.261.22–⁠1.95
Home: points, xG per game1.43, 1.48–⁠1.080.86, 1.42–⁠1.70
Away: points, xG per game1.36, 1.03–⁠1.440.64, 1.03–⁠2.20
ManagerJohn McGlynn (28)Neil McCann (6)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackFalkirk1.22, 6thKilmarnock1.10, 10thDefence (lower is better)Falkirk1.24, 6thKilmarnock1.65, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebFalkirk attack: 1.22Kilmarnock attack: 1.101.221.10KilmarnockFalkirkDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebFalkirk defence: 1.24Kilmarnock defence: 1.651.651.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

FalkirkKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−1%−16%−19%+32%
Counter-attacks−2%+16%+16%average
Set pieces−18%−23%+6%+30%
Penalties−75%+23%−75%+146%
Headers−29%+3%−2%+6%
Left side−45%−20%−48%+33%
Centre−6%−17%+12%+32%
Right side+33%−3%−12%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−45%+14%Centre−6%+32%Right side+33%+33%Open play−1%+32%Counter-attacks−2%averageSet pieces−18%+30%Headers−29%+6%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdFalkirk concededLeft side−48%−3%Centre+12%−17%Right side−12%−20%Open play−19%−16%Counter-attacks+16%+16%Set pieces+6%−23%Headers−2%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

FalkirkKilmarnock

1.26xG1.22
1.26xG against1.95
51%Possession41%
12.2Shots11.1
12.4Shots against15.4
3.8Shots on target3.8
2.0Big chances1.9
20.1Touches in the opposition box20.1
402Passes328
77%Pass accuracy71%
4.7Corners4.4
47%Field tilt39%
35.6Final-third entries31.8
10.5Box entries9.7
13.0Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.261.42
Ahead201.430.80
Behind251.101.34

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.211.76
Ahead161.262.79
Behind341.221.78

xG by period

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.200.153–1
16–300.260.246–7
31–450.230.303–12
46–600.210.178–5
61–750.190.197–5
76–900.180.205–6

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.272–6
16–300.160.266–8
31–450.300.319–5
46–600.130.345–12
61–750.190.342–11
76–900.330.437–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 28Adams 19Lissah 7Yeats 1Allan 16Neilson 8Lissah 3Henderson 27McCann 17Lissah 8Hart 2Spencer 26Stewart 1Tait 18Cartwright 9Yeats 2Wilson 16Miller 5Williams 2Miller 8Tait 5Marsh 3Miller 13Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Stewart 8Graham 74-2-3-1 in 27 of 28 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (27), 4-4-1-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Stryjek 7Roos 6Brown 13Schjønnin… 6Schjønning-LarsenBrannan 4Schilte… 14Schilte-BrownStanger 11Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 6Watson 2Deas 25Williams 3Thomps… 24ThompsonBrannan 3Curtis 1Watson 22McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 19Thomson 2Tshibola 1Polworth 16Kiltie 8Lowery 8Anderson 17Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 6 of 28 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-4-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
20 December 2025Kilmarnock0–1FalkirkxG 1.19–1.46
1 November 2025Falkirk3–1KilmarnockxG 2.08–0.43

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Falkirk won 2, Kilmarnock won 0, and 0 were drawn. Goals 4–1 and xG 1.77–0.81 per game.

Key players

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Stewart9731320.480.11
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7739400.440.07
Miller262,090460.240.23

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Anderson191,604420.340.04
Kiltie181,501340.160.21

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.