Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee United

Saturday 29 November 2025, 17:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 14 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 4,263

Kilmarnock Anderson 34'

Dundee United Sibbald 63'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee United
Goals11
xG2.111.86
Non-penalty xG1.321.07
Expected Points1.561.11

Kilmarnock 41%Draw 33%Dundee United 26%

Most likely score 2–2, 21%. Final score 1–1, 7%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+1%7%8%4%3%14%8%2%1%7%9%5%2%2%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTJohn-Jules on for Watkins, 59'Thomson on for Tiffoney, 73'Kiltie on for Watson, Dackers on for Anderson, and Lowery on for Lyons, 81'Möller on for Watters, 64'Fatah on for Strain, 76'Dolcek on for Sapsford, 77'Anderson 34'Sibbald 63'Kilmarnock 2.11Dundee United 1.8601230153045607590HTJohn-Jules on for Watkins, 59'Thomson on for Tiffoney, 73'Kiltie on for Watson, Dackers on for Anderson, and Lowery on for Lyons, 81'Möller on for Watters, 64'Fatah on for Strain, 76'Dolcek on for Sapsford, 77'Anderson 34'Sibbald 63'2.111.86KilmarnockDundee United

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

2.11 +0.97xG1.86 +0.61
1.32Non-penalty xG1.07
1.73 +0.62xG on target2.27 +0.77
11 +1Shots11 −2
3 −0.8Shots on target3 −2.0
2 +0.2Big chances2 +0.2
22 +3Touches in the opposition box20 −3
46% +8Possession54% +11
324 +15Passes373 +52
61% −10Pass accuracy70% −1
50% +15Field tilt50% +10
28 0Final-third entries39 +8
10 +1.2Box entries8 −3.8
14.4 −1Passes per defensive action6.7 −7
3 −1.8Corners3 −1.3
5 −12Tackles20 +2
5 −4.7Interceptions18 +7.9
45 +12Clearances45 +10
2 −1.0Saves2 −1.3
16 +3Fouls15 +1
1 −0.7Offsides0 −2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Anderson 35', 0.12 xGThompson 90+3', 0.11 xGWatson 74', 0.09 xGDackers 87', 0.07 xGAnderson 45+3', 0.04 xGWatkins 5', 0.03 xGDackers 86', 0.03 xGSchilte-Brown 88', 0.02 xGJohn-Jules 90+1', 0.01 xGAnderson 34', 0.81 xG, goal61%0.81 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.81 xG, 1 goal13%0.17 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.17 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals21%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee United

Möller 80', 0.14 xGSapsford 49', 0.09 xGKeresztes 56', 0.09 xGFerry 21', 0.06 xGStrain 47', 0.06 xGSapsford 54', 0.04 xGFerry 44', 0.03 xGGraham 16', 0.02 xGFerry 1', 0.01 xGSibbald 63', 0.53 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals70%0.75 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.75 xG, 1 goal8%0.09 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.09 xG, 0 goals21%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

0.30 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.96 8 shots, 1 goal
0.09 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.94 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.10 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
64 min (67%) · Kilmarnock 1.95, Dundee United 1.02 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
32 min (33%) · Kilmarnock 0.16, Dundee United 0.84 xG

Line-ups

202556151283192317OluwayemiSchilte-BrownMayoDeasBrownWatsonLyonsThompsonAndersonWatkinsTiffoneyYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal81'81'81'59'73'Kilmarnock 3-4-3Stuart Kettlewell25462328211411936RichardsIovuGrahamKeresztesStrainCamaraStephensonSibbaldFerrySapsfordWattersGoalYellow card76'77'64'Dundee United 3-5-2Jim Goodwin

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 59' John-Jules for Watkins
  • 73' Thomson for Tiffoney
  • 81' Kiltie for Watson
  • 81' Lowery for Lyons
  • 81' Dackers for Anderson

Dundee United substitutes

  • 64' Möller for Watters · yellow card 65'
  • 76' Fatah for Strain
  • 77' Dolcek for Sapsford

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0000.0432
Schilte-BrownCB900.020.0100.0448
MayoCB900.000.0000.00510
Deas CB900.000.0200.06614
BrownRWB900.000.0400.0655
Watson CM810.090.0300.0114
Lyons CM810.000.1420.1163
ThompsonLWB900.110.2120.1546
AndersonRW8111.750.0600.0501
WatkinsST590.030.0100.0331
TiffoneyLW730.000.0520.1042
John-JulesFW310.010.0310.0110
ThomsonMF170.000.0100.0422
KiltieMF90.000.0110.0020
LoweryMF90.000.000−0.0110
DackersFW90.100.0000.0000

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RichardsGK900.000.0000.0320
IovuCB900.000.0000.03213
GrahamCB900.020.0100.04516
KeresztesCB900.090.0410.07316
StrainRWB760.060.030−0.0447
CamaraCM900.000.0300.08513
StephensonCM9010.000.5120.2353
SibbaldCM9010.530.1020.0438
FerryLWB900.110.1310.1589
SapsfordST770.130.0500.0410
Watters ST640.790.031−0.0341
Möller FW260.140.0100.0000
FatahFW140.000.0000.0001
DolcekFW130.000.0510.0610

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Schilte-Brown: 3 passesMayo and Watkins: 3 passesDeas and Tiffoney: 3 passesBrown and Watkins: 3 passesThompson and Watson: 3 passesWatson and Watkins: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Watson: 4 passesDeas and Watson: 4 passesDeas and Watkins: 4 passesAnderson and Tiffoney: 4 passesWatkins and Tiffoney: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and Mayo: 5 passesBrown and Watson: 5 passesBrown and Tiffoney: 5 passesDeas and Lyons: 6 passesBrown and Lyons: 6 passesLyons and Watkins: 8 passesOluwayemi: 6 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 13 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesDeas: 13 completed passesBrown: 15 completed passesThompson: 3 completed passesWatson: 16 completed passesLyons: 16 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passesWatkins: 8 completed passesTiffoney: 4 completed passes202556153128192317OluwayemiSchilte-BrownMayoDeasBrownThompsonWatsonLyonsAndersonWatkinsTiffoneyStarters until 59' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee United

Richards and Sapsford: 4 passesStrain and Watters: 4 passesFerry and Sapsford: 4 passesCamara and Stephenson: 4 passesCamara and Sapsford: 4 passesSibbald and Sapsford: 4 passesRichards and Iovu: 5 passesRichards and Graham: 5 passesKeresztes and Sibbald: 5 passesGraham and Ferry: 5 passesGraham and Sibbald: 5 passesCamara and Sibbald: 5 passesSapsford and Watters: 5 passesFerry and Camara: 6 passesFerry and Watters: 6 passesKeresztes and Graham: 7 passesKeresztes and Ferry: 7 passesGraham and Camara: 8 passesStrain and Stephenson: 9 passesIovu and Graham: 11 passesFerry and Sibbald: 11 passesIovu and Strain: 14 passesStrain and Camara: 14 passesRichards: 9 completed passesKeresztes: 15 completed passesIovu: 25 completed passesGraham: 28 completed passesStrain: 21 completed passesFerry: 20 completed passesCamara: 31 completed passesStephenson: 12 completed passesSibbald: 17 completed passesSapsford: 13 completed passesWatters: 10 completed passes25234621182114936RichardsKeresztesIovuGrahamStrainFerryCamaraStephensonSibbaldSapsfordWattersStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoSchilte-Brown9
LyonsDeas6
BrownTiffoney6
Schilte-BrownMayo6
DeasTiffoney5

Dundee United

FromToPasses
SibbaldFerry10
IovuStrain9
CamaraStrain9
CamaraGraham9
StrainStephenson8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−3.812+3.425+9.84−2.45+1.16−1.33−3.94−3.36−2.52−3.87+1.37+2.11−2.45+0.14−1.44−0.56+1.54+1.52−0.92−1.52−1.12−0.21−0.91−0.91−0.62+1.11+0.410.01+0.61+0.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Dundee United

7+1.48+0.521+4.712+4.38+2.14−3.26−2.380.07−1.27−1.22−3.28+3.84−1.08+1.87+0.13−0.73−1.94+0.27+2.711+8.11−1.54+2.20−0.91−1.220.00−0.61+0.70−0.92+1.82+1.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 12 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.020.020.020.010.010.040.020.010.030.030.060.03−0.010.030.020.040.03−0.020.050.080.110.09LessMore

Dundee United

0.010.010.010.040.030.010.010.020.050.020.090.010.070.060.010.020.010.020.06−0.11−0.020.070.120.09LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.15 → 1.16Dundee United1.17 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.53 → 1.53Dundee United1.50 → 1.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six7%5%−2
11th19%21%+2
Bottom12%13%+1
Dundee United
Top six21%20%−1
11th8%8%0
Bottom4%3%−1

From the forecast before the match (29 November 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee United
Expected goals1.491.18
Win44%29%
Expected Points1.581.15
Clean sheet31%22%

Kilmarnock 44%Draw 27%Dundee United 29%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Dundee United goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%7%3%8%9%5%2%4%5%3%1%1%2%1%10%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 29 November 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee United win
Kilmarnock
Top six7%11%5%3%
11th19%15%21%24%
Bottom12%8%13%16%
Dundee United
Top six21%15%20%31%
11th8%10%8%4%
Bottom4%5%3%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–322 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.73–2.24
  2. L0–49 NovCeltic (A)xG 0.38–2.85
  3. L1–31 NovFalkirk (A)xG 0.43–2.08
  4. L0–129 OctAberdeen (H)xG 1.36–0.55
  5. L1–326 OctRangers (A)xG 1.04–1.36
  6. L0–318 OctHearts (H)xG 0.43–2.88

Dundee United

  1. L0–322 NovFalkirk (H)xG 0.74–1.78
  2. D1–19 NovHearts (A)xG 0.34–0.45
  3. L0–229 OctMotherwell (A)xG 0.48–1.08
  4. W3–125 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.21–2.28
  5. D2–218 OctRangers (A)xG 0.87–1.62
  6. D1–14 OctLivingston (H)xG 2.14–1.29

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee United
Position11th7th
Played1312
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠73–⁠5–⁠4
Points10 (0.77 per game)14 (1.17 per game)
Expected Points per game1.011.16
Goals14–⁠2518–⁠20
xG per game1.14–⁠1.771.25–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game0.71, 1.34–⁠1.571.17, 1.56–⁠1.67
Away: points, xG per game0.83, 0.91–⁠2.001.17, 0.94–⁠1.39
ManagerStuart Kettlewell (13)Jim Goodwin (62)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.15, 9thDundee United1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.53, 10thDundee United1.50, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 1.15Dundee United attack: 1.171.171.15Dundee UnitedKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.53Dundee United defence: 1.501.531.50

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee United
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+12%−26%+24%
Counter-attacks+37%+48%+33%−13%
Set pieces+28%+27%+10%+11%
Penalties−100%+122%−4%−4%
Headers+9%+29%−12%+18%
Left side−46%+37%+27%+3%
Centre+19%+22%−25%+28%
Right side−24%+2%−5%−2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−46%−2%Centre+19%+28%Right side−24%+3%Open play−33%+24%Counter-attacks+37%−13%Set pieces+28%+11%Headers+9%+18%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+27%+2%Centre−25%+22%Right side−5%+37%Open play−26%+12%Counter-attacks+33%+48%Set pieces+10%+27%Headers−12%+29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

1.14xG1.25
1.77xG against1.53
38%Possession43%
10.3Shots12.6
13.8Shots against15.9
3.8Shots on target5.0
1.8Big chances1.8
18.9Touches in the opposition box23.1
309Passes321
71%Pass accuracy72%
4.8Corners4.3
35%Field tilt40%
27.5Final-third entries31.2
8.8Box entries11.8
15.4Passes per defensive action13.4

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level350.991.47
Ahead151.352.24
Behind401.191.86

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.361.41
Ahead180.962.01
Behind251.261.41

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.050.240–3
16–300.170.343–7
31–450.230.265–2
46–600.220.153–4
61–750.150.341–5
76–900.320.442–4

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.172–1
16–300.100.301–7
31–450.200.336–2
46–600.240.273–4
61–750.270.213–2
76–900.300.253–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTStryjek 7Oluwayemi 3Beach 3Stanger 10Schilte-Brown 2Lyons 1Mayo 10Deas 12Williams 3Brown 6Brandon 4Brannan 2Watson 13McKenzie 3Polworth 9Anderson 1Lyons 6Kiltie 4Lowery 3Thompson 10Brannan 3Dackers 10Daniels 4Tiffoney 2Anderson 7Kiltie 33-5-2 in 4 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 3-4-3 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 12Iovu 10Stephenson 1Camará 1Esselink 12Keresztes 11Stephenson 9Sevelj 1Eskesen 1Sevelj 11Sibbald 6Camará 6Pappoe 1Ferry 9Keresztes 1Dolcek 1Dolcek 7Fatah 2Camará 2Sapsford 9Möller 2Stirton 1Fatah 6Sapsford 3Dolcek 23-4-3 in 7 of 12 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 4-3-3 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46
7 December 2024Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.38–1.62
28 September 2024Kilmarnock3–3Dundee UnitedxG 2.31–2.73
24 May 2023Dundee United0–3KilmarnockxG 0.99–1.90
1 February 2023Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.71–1.37

12 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 6, Dundee United won 2, and 4 were drawn. Goals 20–12 and xG 1.57–1.37 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers10898100.280.13
Kiltie7615020.060.25
Watson131,134310.230.06
Anderson8696110.210.06

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dolcek10737510.260.13
Sapsford121,006310.310.07
Fatah8661120.180.10
Sevelj121,022010.140.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.