Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Dundee United 1–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 7 December 2024, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 16 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Steven McLean · Attendance 8,402

Dundee United Dalby 79'

Kilmarnock Anderson 90+5' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Goals11
xG2.381.62
Non-penalty xG2.380.83
Expected Points1.890.86

Dundee United 55%Draw 25%Kilmarnock 20%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 1–1, 9%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+2%2%2%7%3%3%4%2%8%3%1%5%4%2%2%1%9%12%12%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTOdada on for Babunski, 84'van der Sande on for Moult, 87'Thomson on for Stephenson, 90+5'O'Hara on for McCrorie, 60'Wales on for Armstrong, 67'Watkins on for Vassell, Mackay-Steven on for Deas, and Magennis on for Polworth, 87'Dalby 79'Anderson 90+5' (pen)Dundee United 2.38Kilmarnock 1.6201230153045607590HTOdada on for Babunski, 84'van der Sande on for Moult, 87'Thomson on for Stephenson, 90+5'O'Hara on for McCrorie, 60'Wales on for Armstrong, 67'Watkins on for Vassell, Mackay-Steven on for Deas, and Magennis on for Polworth, 87'Dalby 79'Anderson 90+5' (pen)2.381.62Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

2.38 +0.95xG1.62 +0.37
2.38Non-penalty xG0.83
1.56 +0.03xG on target1.71 +0.74
20 +9Shots14 +1
7 +3.4Shots on target7 +4.0
3 +0.8Big chances2 +0.1
34 +11Touches in the opposition box20 0
54% +11Possession46% +4
333 +14Passes296 −7
69% +1Pass accuracy70% +3
45% +4Field tilt55% +15
30 0Final-third entries33 +2
13 +3.1Box entries9 −0.1
11.9 −3Passes per defensive action14.9 −1
9 +5.0Corners1 −4.3
12 −7Tackles20 +5
9 +1.1Interceptions13 +4.5
29 −5Clearances60 +28
6 +3.4Saves6 +2.8
14 +3Fouls7 −3
4 +3.3Offsides0 −1.3

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Moult 8', 0.29 xGSevelj 21', 0.26 xGMoult 49', 0.21 xGDalby 75', 0.18 xGDalby 3', 0.16 xGDalby 1', 0.10 xGFerry 69', 0.10 xGAdegboyega 49', 0.06 xGStrain 78', 0.04 xGAdegboyega 83', 0.04 xGHolt 89', 0.04 xGAdegboyega 19', 0.03 xGHolt 22', 0.03 xGFerry 31', 0.03 xGSevelj 41', 0.03 xGHolt 42', 0.03 xGBabunski 79', 0.03 xGAdegboyega 83', 0.03 xGBabunski 79', 0.02 xGDalby 79', 0.68 xG, goal75%1.78 xGSix-yard box: 6 shots, 1.78 xG, 1 goal14%0.32 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.32 xG, 0 goals7%0.16 xGWide in the box: 4 shots, 0.16 xG, 0 goals4%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Wright 13', 0.25 xGAnderson 5', 0.18 xGAnderson 61', 0.07 xGVassell 68', 0.07 xGDeas 13', 0.05 xGMurray 17', 0.04 xGAnderson 57', 0.04 xGWales 90+11', 0.04 xGVassell 81', 0.03 xGMurray 70', 0.02 xGMagennis 90+11', 0.02 xGArmstrong 25', 0.01 xGMagennis 90+2', 0.01 xG52%0.43 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.43 xG, 0 goals31%0.26 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.26 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals13%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals2%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

1.43 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.43 8 shots, 0 goals
0.96 11 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.40 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
85 min (84%) · Dundee United 2.29, Kilmarnock 0.79 xG
Dundee United ahead
16 min (16%) · Dundee United 0.10, Kilmarnock 0.83 xG

Line-ups

11631421751011199WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherHoltStrainStephensonSeveljBabunskiFerryDalbyMoultYellow cardYellow cardGoal90+5'84'87'Dundee United 3-5-2Jim Goodwin2054611318153919McCrorieMayoWrightDeasArmstrongPolworthLyonsMurrayNdabaVassellAndersonYellow cardGoal60'87'67'87'87'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes

Dundee United substitutes

  • 84' Odada for Babunski · yellow card 90+1'
  • 87' van der Sande for Moult
  • 90+5' Thomson for Stephenson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 60' O'Hara for McCrorie
  • 67' Wales for Armstrong
  • 87' Mackay-Steven for Deas
  • 87' Magennis for Polworth
  • 87' Watkins for Vassell

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
WaltonGK900.000.0000.0550
Adegboyega CB900.160.0520.1789
GallagherCB900.000.0100.03511
HoltCB900.090.3630.04512
StrainRWB900.040.3630.2492
StephensonCM900.000.0200.0103
SeveljCM900.290.0100.0245
BabunskiCM840.050.2620.1342
Ferry LWB900.130.4620.3262
DalbyST9011.130.0210.0203
MoultST870.500.010−0.0112
Odada MF60.000.000−0.0202
van der SandeFW30.000.0000.0000
ThomsonMF00.000.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK600.000.0000.0221
MayoCB900.000.0100.04415
Wright CB900.250.0000.04421
DeasCB870.050.0410.09316
ArmstrongRWB670.010.0400.0112
PolworthCM870.000.0320.0646
LyonsCM900.000.0200.0338
MurrayLWB900.060.1120.1475
NdabaAM900.000.1320.18610
VassellST870.100.0300.1044
AndersonST9011.080.031−0.0105
O'HaraGK300.000.0000.0110
WalesFW230.040.0110.0011
Mackay-StevenDF30.000.0000.0122
MagennisMF30.030.0000.0002
WatkinsFW30.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Walton and Strain: 5 passesGallagher and Moult: 5 passesSevelj and Stephenson: 5 passesAdegboyega and Gallagher: 6 passesAdegboyega and Babunski: 6 passesGallagher and Ferry: 6 passesStrain and Babunski: 6 passesWalton and Gallagher: 7 passesWalton and Holt: 7 passesGallagher and Holt: 7 passesFerry and Sevelj: 7 passesSevelj and Babunski: 7 passesGallagher and Babunski: 9 passesHolt and Sevelj: 9 passesFerry and Babunski: 9 passesHolt and Ferry: 10 passesStrain and Sevelj: 10 passesHolt and Babunski: 11 passesAdegboyega and Stephenson: 12 passesAdegboyega and Strain: 13 passesStrain and Stephenson: 17 passesWalton: 26 completed passesAdegboyega: 20 completed passesGallagher: 26 completed passesHolt: 22 completed passesStrain: 30 completed passesFerry: 25 completed passesSevelj: 31 completed passesBabunski: 28 completed passesStephenson: 21 completed passesDalby: 5 completed passesMoult: 9 completed passes11631421151017199WaltonAdegboyegaGallagherHoltStrainFerrySeveljBabunskiStephensonDalbyMoultStarters until 84' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Kilmarnock

Wright and Armstrong: 3 passesWright and Polworth: 3 passesDeas and Polworth: 3 passesDeas and Murray: 3 passesMayo and Vassell: 3 passesArmstrong and Anderson: 3 passesPolworth and Lyons: 3 passesLyons and Vassell: 3 passesMayo and Armstrong: 4 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 4 passesPolworth and Murray: 4 passesMurray and Lyons: 4 passesAnderson and Vassell: 4 passesDeas and Ndaba: 5 passesWright and Mayo: 6 passesWright and Lyons: 6 passesDeas and Lyons: 6 passesNdaba and Vassell: 6 passesLyons and Anderson: 6 passesMayo and Polworth: 7 passesMayo and Lyons: 7 passesNdaba and Polworth: 7 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 8 passesPolworth and Anderson: 9 passesMcCrorie: 8 completed passesWright: 14 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesMayo: 18 completed passesArmstrong: 13 completed passesNdaba: 12 completed passesPolworth: 20 completed passesMurray: 6 completed passesLyons: 23 completed passesAnderson: 13 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes2046511331158199McCrorieWrightDeasMayoArmstrongNdabaPolworthMurrayLyonsAndersonVassellStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
StephensonStrain12
HoltFerry9
StrainAdegboyega9
AdegboyegaStephenson9
StrainStephenson6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
AndersonPolworth7
LyonsNdaba7
LyonsMurray6
WrightLyons5
ArmstrongPolworth5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

5+0.65−3.15−5.03−3.53−2.95−1.58+1.96−1.99+1.43−2.94−0.57+3.37+1.28+2.13−0.34+1.25+2.82−0.56+2.62−0.60−1.43+2.11−0.11−0.60−1.10−0.20−0.90−0.40−0.811−8.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 14 matches

Kilmarnock

3−1.310+1.222+4.315+7.712+5.96+1.37+0.18+1.83−3.19+2.34−1.16+2.36+3.05+0.53−1.63−0.46+2.35+3.03−0.97+3.12+0.21−0.610.00−1.12−0.51+0.31+0.40−0.40−0.50−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.040.030.060.010.050.040.030.01−0.010.020.130.05−0.010.070.19−0.05−0.020.020.29LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.030.010.020.010.010.020.030.020.020.010.010.010.010.020.080.060.03−0.030.010.100.100.12LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.21 → 1.22Kilmarnock1.18 → 1.17Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.38 → 1.37Kilmarnock1.44 → 1.44

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six86%84%−2
11th1%1%0
Bottom<1%<1%0
Kilmarnock
Top six24%24%0
11th12%12%0
Bottom9%9%0

From the forecast before the match (7 December 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Expected goals1.541.08
Win47%26%
Expected Points1.681.05
Clean sheet34%21%

Dundee United 47%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 26%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+8%7%4%2%7%2%9%5%2%4%5%3%2%2%1%11%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 December 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee United
Top six86%91%84%77%
11th1%<1%1%2%
Bottom<1%<1%<1%1%
Kilmarnock
Top six24%17%24%38%
11th12%14%12%9%
Bottom9%12%9%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W2–030 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 3.22–0.35
  2. D1–123 NovRangers (A)xG 0.78–2.60
  3. W3–09 NovRoss County (H)xG 1.93–0.89
  4. D1–13 NovHibernian (A)xG 1.31–1.09
  5. L1–230 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.43–1.06
  6. L0–126 OctAberdeen (A)xG 0.38–1.41

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–64 DecRangers (A)xG 0.09–4.60
  2. D1–130 NovDundee FC (H)xG 1.28–0.75
  3. L0–123 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.45–1.02
  4. L0–210 NovCeltic (H)xG 2.22–2.12
  5. L2–33 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.04–1.58
  6. W2–130 OctHearts (A)xG 1.73–1.11

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Position4th10th
Played1415
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠5–⁠33–⁠4–⁠8
Points23 (1.64 per game)13 (0.87 per game)
Expected Points per game1.371.18
Goals21–⁠1416–⁠33
xG per game1.43–⁠1.381.25–⁠1.67
Home: points, xG per game1.86, 1.61–⁠1.141.00, 1.79–⁠1.49
Away: points, xG per game1.43, 1.25–⁠1.620.78, 0.89–⁠1.78
ManagerJim Goodwin (26)Derek McInnes (91)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee United1.21, 6thKilmarnock1.18, 8thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.38, 6thKilmarnock1.44, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United attack: 1.21Kilmarnock attack: 1.181.211.18KilmarnockDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee United defence: 1.38Kilmarnock defence: 1.441.441.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%+3%−17%+21%
Counter-attacks+58%−43%−55%−15%
Set pieces−16%+1%+29%+21%
Penalties+86%−7%−57%+30%
Headers+15%+20%+14%−20%
Left side−16%+10%−10%+1%
Centre+10%+2%−6%+28%
Right side−28%−19%−7%+14%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−16%+14%Centre+10%+28%Right side−28%+1%Open play−9%+21%Counter-attacks+58%−15%Set pieces−16%+21%Headers+15%−20%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−10%−19%Centre−6%+2%Right side−7%+10%Open play−17%+3%Counter-attacks−55%−43%Set pieces+29%+1%Headers+14%+20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

1.43xG1.25
1.38xG against1.67
43%Possession42%
11.0Shots12.7
13.8Shots against15.3
3.6Shots on target3.0
2.2Big chances1.9
23.0Touches in the opposition box19.8
319Passes303
68%Pass accuracy66%
4.0Corners5.3
42%Field tilt40%
29.6Final-third entries31.1
9.9Box entries9.1
15.1Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level531.281.33
Ahead211.681.75
Behind161.611.08

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level451.211.42
Ahead81.222.39
Behind371.291.83

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.160.101–1
16–300.240.213–3
31–450.170.262–1
46–600.220.193–2
61–750.160.312–4
76–900.480.3110–3

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.130.261–2
16–300.140.201–4
31–450.210.342–7
46–600.150.283–6
61–750.280.283–6
76–900.330.316–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTWalton 14Adegboyega 12Dalby 1Gallagher 14Holt 9Graham 6Stephenson 8Strain 4Sevelj 2Babunski 8Sevelj 3Holt 2Sibbald 7Ferry 5Docherty 2Ferry 8Stephenson 3Babunski 1Middleton 6Sevelj 5Babunski 3Trapanovski 7Dalby 1Ferry 1Dalby 7van der Sande 6Babunski 13-4-2-1 in 7 of 14 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-4-3 (5), 4-4-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 11O'Hara 4Mayo 5Armstrong 3Lyons 2Mayo 8Wright 4Findlay 9Deas 7Ndaba 2Ndaba 7Lyons 3Deas 3Armstrong 9Wright 3Watson 1Lyons 6Donnelly 6Watkins 1Watson 8Polworth 4Kennedy 1Kennedy 10Murray 2Ndaba 1Vassell 14Cameron 1Watkins 10Anderson 2Watson 14-4-2 in 8 of 15 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-4-1-2 (3), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 September 2024Kilmarnock3–3Dundee UnitedxG 2.31–2.73
24 May 2023Dundee United0–3KilmarnockxG 0.99–1.90
1 February 2023Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.71–1.37
9 November 2022Dundee United4–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.85
30 July 2022Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 1.24–0.38
21 April 2021Kilmarnock3–0Dundee UnitedxG 2.29–1.15

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 2, Kilmarnock won 4, and 3 were drawn. Goals 11–16 and xG 1.16–1.59 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Trapanovski7531110.360.20
Dalby9787500.430.05
Babunski131,015110.160.15
Graham6507200.220.05

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins11950300.400.04
Vassell141,049110.270.08
Armstrong12924030.060.17

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.