Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 0–2 Kilmarnock

Saturday 27 September 2025, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 6 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 8,800

Kilmarnock Anderson 26', Deas 56'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Dundee United	Kilmarnock
Goals	0	2
xG	2.21	1.49
Non-penalty xG	1.42	1.49
Expected Points	1.86	0.89

Dundee United 54%Draw 24%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 0–2, 1%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

2.21 +1.01xG1.49 +0.33

1.42Non-penalty xG1.49

2.15 +0.17xG on target2.16 +1.07

18 +5.6Shots17 +7.2

7 +1.2Shots on target7 +3.8

3 +0.6Big chances2 0.0

39 +17Touches in the opposition box23 +5

60% +18Possession40% +4

436 +112Passes294 −15

77% +1Pass accuracy69% −4

52% +9Field tilt48% +18

43 +14Final-third entries27 +1

17 +6.0Box entries9 +1.2

11.6 −4Passes per defensive action12.3 −4

9 +4.4Corners6 +1.4

25 +7Tackles12 −8

8 −0.4Interceptions13 +3.0

21 −18Clearances50 +15

5 +1.6Saves7 +3.8

8 −6Fouls12 −2

2 −0.2Offsides1 −0.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Dundee United

Kilmarnock

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.90 9 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.58 8 shots, 1 goal

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.51 2 shots, 0 goals

0.51 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.41 7 shots, 1 goal

0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–10–2

Level: 26 min (28%) · Dundee United 0.23, Kilmarnock 0.22 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 68 min (72%) · Dundee United 1.98, Kilmarnock 1.27 xG

Line-ups

Dundee United substitutes

57' Eskesen for Dolcek · yellow card 82'
57' Möller for Fatah · yellow card 67'
77' Sibbald for Iovu
78' Naamo for Camara

Kilmarnock substitutes

65' Lyons for Watson
65' Daniels for Anderson
84' McKenzie for Polworth
84' Watkins for Dackers
90+3' Schilte-Brown for Brown

Players

Dundee United

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Kucherenko	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	2
Iovu	CB	77	0.00	0.28	2	0.33	13	5
Esselink	CB	90	0.00	0.08	0	0.05	2	7
Keresztes	CB	90	0.04	0.12	1	0.21	7	17
Stephenson	RWB	90	0.07	0.51	2	0.12	2	3
Sevelj	CM	90	0.34	0.06	0	0.07	8	4
Camara	CM	78	0.00	0.06	1	0.11	5	5
Ferry	LWB	90	0.00	0.23	3	0.24	12	7
Dolcek	RW	57	0.06	0.21	2	0.23	3	2
Sapsford	ST	90	1.06	0.02	1	−0.01	1	0
Fatah	LW	57	0.00	0.03	0	0.03	1	3
Eskesen	MF	33	0.19	0.05	1	0.03	1	2
Möller	FW	33	0.43	0.17	1	0.12	2	1
Sibbald	MF	13	0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	1
Naamo	DF	12	0.00	0.01	0	−0.03	0	2

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Stryjek	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	3	3
Stanger	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	12
Mayo	CB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	3	15
Deas	CB	90	1		0.08	0.00	0	0.03	3	13
Polworth	DM	84			0.00	0.02	1	0.02	6	7
Brown	RWB	90			0.00	0.02	1	0.03	4	9
Watson	CM	65		1	0.17	0.09	2	0.10	5	3
Kiltie	CM	90			0.00	0.02	1	−0.02	2	1
Thompson	LWB	90		1	0.05	0.14	2	0.27	11	8
Dackers	ST	84			0.28	0.16	2	0.17	3	3
Anderson	ST	65	1		0.35	0.01	0	0.05	0	3
Lyons	MF	25			0.12	0.04	1	−0.03	0	1
Daniels	FW	25			0.05	0.01	1	−0.01	0	0
McKenzie	MF	6			0.00	0.12	1	0.13	5	0
Watkins	FW	6			0.40	0.00	0	0.01	1	2
Schilte-Brown	DF	0			0.00	0.00	0	–	–	0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Kilmarnock

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

From	To	Passes
Esselink	Keresztes	18
Esselink	Iovu	13
Keresztes	Ferry	13
Iovu	Sevelj	10
Keresztes	Esselink	10

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Stanger	Mayo	12
Brown	Stanger	10
Polworth	Brown	9
Thompson	Polworth	8
Thompson	Dackers	8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

Against its average of 5 matches

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

Kilmarnock

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Dundee United
Top six	44%	33%	−11
11th	5%	7%	+2
Bottom	2%	3%	+1
Kilmarnock
Top six	32%	44%	+12
11th	8%	5%	−3
Bottom	4%	2%	−2
St. Mirren
Top six	51%	51%	0

From the forecast before the match (27 September 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Dundee United	Kilmarnock
Expected goals	1.48	1.20
Win	43%	30%
Expected Points	1.56	1.17
Clean sheet	30%	23%

Dundee United 43%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 30%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 55%.

From the forecast as it stood on 27 September 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Dundee United win	Draw	Kilmarnock win
Dundee United
Top six	44%	54%	40%	33%
11th	5%	3%	6%	7%
Bottom	2%	1%	2%	3%
Kilmarnock
Top six	32%	24%	30%	44%
11th	8%	10%	8%	5%
Bottom	4%	5%	4%	2%
St. Mirren
Top six	51%	50%	53%	51%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

Kilmarnock

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Dundee United	Kilmarnock
Position	3rd	10th
Played	5	5
Won, drawn, lost	2–⁠2–⁠1	0–⁠4–⁠1
Points	8 (1.60 per game)	4 (0.80 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.07	1.02
Goals	11–⁠8	7–⁠8
xG per game	1.20–⁠1.68	1.16–⁠1.69
Home: points, xG per game	1.50, 1.02–⁠1.60	0.67, 1.23–⁠1.64
Away: points, xG per game	1.67, 1.32–⁠1.73	1.00, 1.07–⁠1.77
Manager	Jim Goodwin (55)	Stuart Kettlewell (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Dundee United		Kilmarnock
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−21%	+20%	−29%	average
Counter-attacks	+143%	−72%	−46%	+126%
Set pieces	−6%	+28%	+56%	+6%
Penalties	−81%	+129%	−75%	+119%
Headers	−6%	+28%	+44%	+27%
Left side	+26%	−25%	−46%	+33%
Centre	−14%	+24%	+23%	−6%
Right side	+4%	+25%	−17%	+40%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+26%+40%Centre−14%−6%Right side+4%+33%Open play−21%averageCounter-attacks+143%+126%Set pieces−6%+6%Headers−6%+27%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−46%+25%Centre+23%+24%Right side−17%−25%Open play−29%+20%Counter-attacks−46%−72%Set pieces+56%+28%Headers+44%+28%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

1.20xG1.16

1.68xG against1.69

42%Possession36%

12.4Shots9.8

15.6Shots against13.8

5.8Shots on target3.2

2.4Big chances2.0

21.6Touches in the opposition box18.2

324Passes309

76%Pass accuracy73%

4.6Corners4.6

42%Field tilt30%

29.2Final-third entries26.2

11.0Box entries7.8

15.4Passes per defensive action16.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	49	1.33	1.37
Ahead	41	1.01	2.08
Behind	1	3.90	0.00

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	60	1.00	1.16
Ahead	15	0.68	3.41
Behind	15	2.31	2.15

xG by period

Dundee United

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.17	0.14	2–0
16–30	0.17	0.38	1–2
31–45	0.30	0.21	4–0
46–60	0.23	0.35	2–3
61–75	0.15	0.21	1–1
76–90	0.18	0.40	1–2

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.05	0.12	0–0
16–30	0.12	0.29	1–2
31–45	0.29	0.34	3–1
46–60	0.13	0.09	1–1
61–75	0.14	0.31	0–2
76–90	0.43	0.54	2–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

Formations: 3-4-3 (3), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

Formations: 5-3-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
1 February 2025	Kilmarnock	1–0	Dundee United	xG 1.39–1.46
7 December 2024	Dundee United	1–1	Kilmarnock	xG 2.38–1.62
28 September 2024	Kilmarnock	3–3	Dundee United	xG 2.31–2.73
24 May 2023	Dundee United	0–3	Kilmarnock	xG 0.99–1.90
1 February 2023	Kilmarnock	1–0	Dundee United	xG 2.71–1.37
9 November 2022	Dundee United	4–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.83–0.85

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 2, Kilmarnock won 5, and 4 were drawn. Goals 12–18 and xG 1.30–1.58 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Ferry	38	3,416	0	5	0.04	0.23
Thomson	6	597	1	0	0.20	0.05
Stephenson	31	2,670	5	3	0.14	0.07
Fotheringham	7	679	0	0	0.10	0.02

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Anderson	16	1,626	11	1	0.62	0.05
Watkins	22	2,046	4	1	0.34	0.04
Watson	28	2,578	6	1	0.15	0.06
Polworth	21	1,923	3	1	0.07	0.11

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.