Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee United 1–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 21 February 2026, 15:00 · CalForth Construction Arena at Tannadice Park · Round 28 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee John Beaton · Attendance 9,047

Dundee United Fatah 74'

Kilmarnock Watkins 90+1' · Thomson sent off 90+4'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Goals11
xG2.050.50
Non-penalty xG1.260.50
Expected Points2.540.30

Dundee United 79%Draw 16%Kilmarnock 5%

Most likely score 2–0, 21%. Final score 1–1, 10%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+3%2%10%2%12%3%13%7%2%4%2%1%16%21%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTThomson (Kilmarnock), red card 90+4'Strain on for Sibbald, 37'Sapsford on for Watters, 72'Watkins on for Lyons, 46'Thomson on for Tshibola, 58'Polworth on for Curtis and Anderson on for Hugill, 79'Fatah 74'Watkins 90+1'Dundee United 2.05Kilmarnock 0.5001230153045607590HTThomson (Kilmarnock), red card 90+4'Strain on for Sibbald, 37'Sapsford on for Watters, 72'Watkins on for Lyons, 46'Thomson on for Tshibola, 58'Polworth on for Curtis and Anderson on for Hugill, 79'Fatah 74'Watkins 90+1'2.050.50Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

2.05 +0.81xG0.50 −0.75
1.26Non-penalty xG0.50
1.67 +0.36xG on target0.75 −0.45
12 −1Shots9 −2
4 −0.4Shots on target2 −1.9
5 +3.1Big chances1 −0.9
31 +7Touches in the opposition box25 +5
40% −1Possession60% +20
289 −21Passes470 +148
60% −9Pass accuracy75% +4
53% +17Field tilt47% +8
36 +5Final-third entries45 +14
11 −0.2Box entries12 +2.4
21.2 +7Passes per defensive action16.2 0
6 +1.5Corners3 −1.5
10 −7Tackles9 −6
11 +1.4Interceptions8 −0.4
33 −3Clearances47 +12
1 −2.5Saves3 −0.8
9 −4Fouls9 −4
0 −1.8Offsides0 −1.9

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee United

Sevelj 55', 0.29 xGSevelj 55', 0.25 xGCamara 4', 0.17 xGStephenson 45+3', 0.14 xGFatah 58', 0.13 xGSapsford 84', 0.12 xGFerry 45+4', 0.05 xGCamara 59', 0.04 xGStephenson 63', 0.03 xGAgyei 84', 0.01 xGFatah 74', 0.04 xG, goal23%0.29 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.29 xG, 0 goals64%0.81 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.81 xG, 0 goals7%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 1 goal4%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.03 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Schilte-Brown 89', 0.17 xGAnderson 80', 0.07 xGKiltie 30', 0.06 xGCurtis 51', 0.05 xGWatson 23', 0.03 xGThompson 86', 0.02 xGSchjønning-Larsen 66', 0.01 xGKiltie 89', 0.01 xGWatkins 90+1', 0.07 xG, goal35%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals41%0.20 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 1 goal12%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals10%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals2%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

0.37 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.31 7 shots, 1 goal
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.86 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.18 2 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
81 min (83%) · Dundee United 1.92, Kilmarnock 0.16 xG
Dundee United ahead
17 min (17%) · Dundee United 0.13, Kilmarnock 0.34 xG

Line-ups

15462181214113617Maynard-BrewerSeveljIovuGrahamStephensonCamaraAgyeiSibbaldFerryWattersFatahYellow cardGoal37'72'Dundee United 3-5-2Jim Goodwin1321256383611125244RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonLyonsTshibolaKiltieWatsonCurtisHugillYellow cardYellow cardYellow card46'58'79'79'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann

Dundee United substitutes

  • 37' Strain for Sibbald
  • 72' Sapsford for Watters

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Watkins for Lyons · goal 90+1'
  • 58' Thomson for Tshibola · red card 90+4'
  • 79' Polworth for Curtis
  • 79' Anderson for Hugill

Players

Dundee United

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
Maynard-BrewerGK900.000.0000.0331
SeveljCB900.540.1120.251211
Iovu CB900.000.0000.01013
GrahamCB900.000.0000.0126
StephensonRWB900.170.1010.1933
CamaraCM900.200.0310.0317
AgyeiCM900.010.0000.0107
SibbaldCM370.000.0000.0002
FerryLWB9010.050.1410.41163
WattersST720.000.0300.0100
FatahST9010.960.090−0.1041
StrainMF530.000.3330.1963
SapsfordFW180.120.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0530
Schjønning-Larsen RB900.010.0100.0354
Schilte-BrownCB900.170.0400.12519
DeasCB900.000.0200.19219
ThompsonLB900.020.0200.0558
LyonsRM460.000.0700.0427
Tshibola CM580.000.0100.0141
KiltieCM9010.070.3630.3063
WatsonLM900.030.0820.0757
CurtisST790.050.1320.0723
Hugill ST790.000.020−0.0813
WatkinsFW4410.070.0100.0022
Thomson MF320.000.0310.0960
PolworthMF110.000.021−0.0141
AndersonFW110.070.000−0.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Graham and Ferry: 3 passesSevelj and Watters: 4 passesStephenson and Ferry: 4 passesStephenson and Fatah: 4 passesCamara and Fatah: 4 passesCamara and Watters: 4 passesStephenson and Camara: 5 passesFerry and Fatah: 5 passesFatah and Watters: 5 passesFerry and Sibbald: 6 passesSevelj and Stephenson: 9 passesMaynard-Brewer: 2 completed passesSevelj: 14 completed passesIovu: 3 completed passesGraham: 4 completed passesStephenson: 9 completed passesFerry: 12 completed passesCamara: 8 completed passesSibbald: 3 completed passesAgyei: 4 completed passesFatah: 11 completed passesWatters: 6 completed passes15462111814121736Maynard-BrewerSeveljIovuGrahamStephensonFerryCamaraSibbaldAgyeiFatahWattersStarters until 37' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Roos and Thompson: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and Watson: 3 passesDeas and Lyons: 3 passesDeas and Watson: 3 passesDeas and Hugill: 3 passesLyons and Watson: 3 passesTshibola and Curtis: 3 passesDeas and Curtis: 4 passesThompson and Watson: 4 passesKiltie and Hugill: 4 passesThompson and Curtis: 5 passesLyons and Tshibola: 5 passesLyons and Curtis: 5 passesKiltie and Curtis: 5 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lyons: 6 passesDeas and Kiltie: 6 passesThompson and Kiltie: 6 passesSchilte-Brown and Deas: 7 passesDeas and Thompson: 7 passesThompson and Tshibola: 7 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Tshibola: 8 passesSchilte-Brown and Tshibola: 9 passesDeas and Tshibola: 9 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Schilte-Brown: 14 passesRoos and Schilte-Brown: 15 passesRoos and Deas: 15 passesRoos: 23 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 20 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 26 completed passesDeas: 26 completed passesThompson: 20 completed passesLyons: 15 completed passesTshibola: 25 completed passesKiltie: 10 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesHugill: 3 completed passesCurtis: 13 completed passes1321256383611124452RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonLyonsTshibolaKiltieWatsonHugillCurtisStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee United

FromToPasses
FerryFatah9
SeveljStephenson8
SeveljStrain8
FerryGraham7
AgyeiStrain7

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
Schjønning-LarsenSchilte-Brown17
RoosSchilte-Brown13
RoosDeas13
Schilte-BrownDeas12
DeasRoos12

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee United

3−2.15−3.014−3.88+0.39+2.111+2.76−1.86−2.04−2.84−1.04−0.53−1.83−2.87+1.14+0.83−0.71−2.11−3.26+2.42−0.12+0.13+2.04+1.92+0.20−0.70−0.51+0.30−0.41−0.10−5.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Kilmarnock

4−1.290.030+12.710+2.96+1.74−3.410+3.15−1.98+0.210+4.22−3.13−2.00−3.57+1.85+0.32−1.62−1.60−2.74+0.93−0.90−2.51−0.92+0.51−0.80−2.01+0.22+1.21+0.10−0.41+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 27 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee United

0.020.010.010.020.030.030.020.030.010.030.020.030.010.050.080.080.15−0.020.040.08−0.12−0.010.44LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.020.010.010.060.030.020.020.030.070.040.070.030.060.050.06−0.04−0.050.030.01−0.07−0.030.280.20LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackDundee United1.12 → 1.15Kilmarnock1.12 → 1.10Defence (lower is better)Dundee United1.57 → 1.53Kilmarnock1.63 → 1.65

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee United
Top six3%2%−1
11th2%2%0
Kilmarnock
11th57%57%0
Bottom6%6%0
Dundee FC
11th22%22%0
St. Mirren
11th11%10%−1

From the forecast before the match (21 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Expected goals1.631.17
Win47%27%
Expected Points1.681.06
Clean sheet31%20%

Dundee United 47%Draw 26%Kilmarnock 27%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 56%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee United goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%2%7%3%8%6%2%4%5%3%1%2%2%1%9%12%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee United winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee United
Top six3%4%2%1%
11th2%<1%2%6%
Kilmarnock
11th57%65%57%45%
Bottom6%7%6%3%
Dundee FC
11th22%17%22%29%
St. Mirren
11th11%9%10%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee United

  1. W3–214 FebFalkirk (A)xG 1.09–0.94
  2. L2–34 FebHibernian (A)xG 1.73–2.57
  3. L0–331 JanHearts (H)xG 0.18–4.39
  4. L0–410 JanCeltic (A)xG 0.34–3.18
  5. L0–13 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.50–1.83
  6. W3–130 DecLivingston (A)xG 3.25–0.45

Kilmarnock

  1. L2–315 FebCeltic (H)xG 0.86–2.98
  2. W4–311 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.76–1.96
  3. L1–54 FebRangers (A)xG 1.39–3.14
  4. W3–031 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01
  5. L0–424 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–2.72
  6. D1–110 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–1.30

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
Position7th11th
Played2527
Won, drawn, lost6–⁠10–⁠94–⁠8–⁠15
Points28 (1.12 per game)20 (0.74 per game)
Expected Points per game1.050.99
Goals33–⁠4230–⁠54
xG per game1.24–⁠1.841.25–⁠1.95
Home: points, xG per game1.08, 1.26–⁠2.180.86, 1.42–⁠1.70
Away: points, xG per game1.15, 1.21–⁠1.530.62, 1.07–⁠2.21
ManagerJim Goodwin (75)Neil McCann (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.33AttackDundee United1.12, 9thKilmarnock1.12, 10thDefence (lower is better)Dundee United1.57, 9thKilmarnock1.63, 11th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebDundee United attack: 1.12Kilmarnock attack: 1.121.121.12KilmarnockDundee UnitedDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebDundee United defence: 1.57Kilmarnock defence: 1.631.631.57

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−33%+44%−18%+35%
Counter-attacks+32%−11%+19%+2%
Set pieces+18%+14%+10%+28%
Penalties−16%+40%−74%+134%
Headers−17%+24%average+10%
Left side+9%+41%−49%+30%
Centre−27%+35%+16%+35%
Right side−1%+8%−10%+17%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+9%+17%Centre−27%+35%Right side−1%+30%Open play−33%+35%Counter-attacks+32%+2%Set pieces+18%+28%Headers−17%+10%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−49%+8%Centre+16%+35%Right side−10%+41%Open play−18%+44%Counter-attacks+19%−11%Set pieces+10%+14%Headersaverage+24%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee UnitedKilmarnock

1.24xG1.25
1.84xG against1.95
41%Possession40%
12.7Shots11.1
16.6Shots against15.5
4.4Shots on target3.9
1.9Big chances1.9
23.8Touches in the opposition box19.9
310Passes322
69%Pass accuracy71%
4.5Corners4.5
36%Field tilt39%
30.9Final-third entries31.4
11.2Box entries9.6
14.0Passes per defensive action15.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee United

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level461.261.60
Ahead161.152.51
Behind271.241.86

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.281.72
Ahead171.262.79
Behind351.211.80

xG by period

Dundee United

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.213–3
16–300.140.284–12
31–450.190.367–7
46–600.250.295–6
61–750.260.327–5
76–900.230.387–9

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.272–6
16–300.170.276–8
31–450.310.299–5
46–600.130.335–12
61–750.200.352–10
76–900.330.456–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee United

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWKucherenko 12Richards 10Maynard-Brewer 3Iovu 17Cleall-Harding 3Sevelj 2Esselink 18Graham 9Keresztes 23Stephenson 11Strain 7Naamo 4Sevelj 14Stephenson 7Sibbald 18Camará 10Pappoe 1Ferry 22Keresztes 1Naamo 1Sapsford 7Dolcek 7Fatah 4Sapsford 12Möller 6Watters 5Fatah 11Sapsford 5Trapanovski 43-4-3 in 14 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (14), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-2-1 (3), 4-3-3 (2), 5-3-2 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Stryjek 7Roos 5Brown 13Schjønnin… 5Schjønning-LarsenBrannan 4Schilte… 13Schilte-BrownStanger 11Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 6Watson 1Deas 24Williams 3Thompson 23Brannan 3Curtis 1Watson 22McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 18Thomson 2Polworth 16Lowery 8Kiltie 7Anderson 17Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 12Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 6 of 27 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
29 November 2025Kilmarnock1–1Dundee UnitedxG 2.11–1.86
27 September 2025Dundee United0–2KilmarnockxG 2.21–1.49
1 February 2025Kilmarnock1–0Dundee UnitedxG 1.39–1.46
7 December 2024Dundee United1–1KilmarnockxG 2.38–1.62
28 September 2024Kilmarnock3–3Dundee UnitedxG 2.31–2.73
24 May 2023Dundee United0–3KilmarnockxG 0.99–1.90

13 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee United won 2, Kilmarnock won 6, and 5 were drawn. Goals 13–21 and xG 1.41–1.61 per game.

Key players

Dundee United

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Watters7574210.510.09
Dolcek10883520.280.13
Sapsford241,997620.330.08
Fatah151,285430.190.13

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules121,151820.430.07
Dackers121,144200.330.10
Anderson191,593420.340.04
Kiltie171,411330.170.20

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.