Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 3–3 Dundee United

Saturday 28 September 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 6 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 6,257

Kilmarnock Watson 47', 58', Watkins 64'

Dundee United Moult 21', Sibbald 79', Graham 90+9' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Dundee United
Goals	3	3
xG	2.31	2.73
Non-penalty xG	2.31	1.95
Expected Points	1.08	1.67

Kilmarnock 28%Draw 25%Dundee United 47%

Most likely score 2–2, 12%. Final score 3–3, 9%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee United

2.31 +1.21xG2.73 +1.62

2.31Non-penalty xG1.95

2.33 +1.66xG on target3.18 +2.03

15 +4.8Shots19 +9.6

3 +0.6Shots on target8 +4.6

3 +1.0Big chances2 +0.4

23 +5Touches in the opposition box47 +27

48% +7Possession52% +11

349 +70Passes380 +84

70% +5Pass accuracy69% +3

39% +4Field tilt61% +20

35 +5Final-third entries37 +9

19 +12.4Box entries19 +11.0

32.9 +17Passes per defensive action10.5 −8

7 +2.0Corners3 −1.0

14 +1Tackles23 +4

7 −1.0Interceptions3 −4.8

37 +6Clearances33 +5

5 +2.0Saves0 −2.8

8 −3Fouls12 +2

0 −1.0Offsides0 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Dundee United

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee United

0.86 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.79 14 shots, 2 goals

0.10 2 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

1.36 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.16 4 shots, 0 goals

0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–00–11–13–13–2

Level: 33 min (33%) · Kilmarnock 0.88, Dundee United 1.19 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 41 min (41%) · Kilmarnock 1.06, Dundee United 1.30 xG
Dundee United ahead: 26 min (26%) · Kilmarnock 0.37, Dundee United 0.25 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

20' Deas for Findlay
46' Watson for Burroughs · goal 47', goal 58'
89' Bainbridge for Kennedy
89' Donnelly for Polworth
90+6' Murray for Watkins

Dundee United substitutes

74' Sevelj for Babunski
74' Middleton for Docherty
74' van der Sande for Dalby
75' Thomson for Gallagher
90+2' Fotheringham for Moult

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
O'Hara	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Burroughs	RB	46			0.00	0.39	0	0.30	7	1
Mayo	CB	90			0.00	0.02	0	0.07	7	16
Findlay	CB	20			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	2
Ndaba	LB	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	6	9
Armstrong	RM	90		1	0.14	0.23	2	0.23	7	2
Polworth	CM	89			0.00	0.05	0	0.15	8	3
Lyons	CM	90			0.35	0.00	0	0.02	2	10
Kennedy	LM	89		1	0.00	0.93	7	0.73	15	5
Watkins	ST	90	1		0.77	0.13	4	0.14	3	1
Vassell	ST	90			0.20	0.05	1	0.07	3	3
Deas	DF	70			0.29	0.00	0	0.07	8	10
Watson	MF	44	2		0.56	0.01	0	0.01	1	0
Bainbridge	DF	1			0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	0
Donnelly	MF	1			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	1	2
Murray	MF	0			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0

Dundee United

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Walton	GK	90			0.00	0.01	0	0.05	3	1
Adegboyega	CB	90			0.14	0.06	1	0.21	8	11
Gallagher	CB	75			0.00	0.01	0	0.03	2	8
Graham	CB	90	1		0.79	0.10	0	0.15	8	8
Stephenson	RWB	90		2	0.12	0.67	3	0.23	2	6
Docherty	CM	74			0.14	0.10	0	0.07	4	7
Sibbald	CM	90	1		0.03	0.01	0	0.01	2	6
Ferry	LWB	90			0.00	0.59	3	0.48	8	8
Babunski	AM	74			0.27	0.04	0	0.01	2	2
Moult	AM	90	1		1.00	0.09	1	0.08	3	1
Dalby	ST	74			0.12	0.04	2	0.01	0	1
Sevelj	MF	16			0.03	0.03	1	0.04	3	3
Middleton	FW	16			0.00	0.03	0	0.00	0	1
van der Sande	FW	16			0.00	0.02	0	0.00	0	0
Thomson	MF	15			0.02	0.10	1	−0.03	1	0
Fotheringham	MF	0			0.07	0.02	0	−0.07	0	1

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee United

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Ndaba	Kennedy	7
Mayo	Deas	7
Watkins	Vassell	6
Polworth	Vassell	6
O'Hara	Mayo	6

Dundee United

From	To	Passes
Graham	Ferry	9
Ferry	Sibbald	8
Graham	Gallagher	7
Graham	Walton	6
Gallagher	Graham	6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 5 matches

Dundee United

Against its average of 5 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Dundee United

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
Top six	28%	24%	−4
11th	11%	12%	+1
Bottom	9%	10%	+1
Dundee United
Top six	30%	31%	+1
11th	13%	12%	−1
Bottom	13%	11%	−2

From the forecast before the match (28 September 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Dundee United
Expected goals	1.59	0.98
Win	51%	23%
Expected Points	1.79	0.95
Clean sheet	37%	20%

Kilmarnock 51%Draw 26%Dundee United 23%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

From the forecast as it stood on 28 September 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Dundee United win
Kilmarnock
Top six	28%	35%	24%	18%
11th	11%	8%	12%	14%
Bottom	9%	6%	10%	14%
Dundee United
Top six	30%	24%	31%	43%
11th	13%	16%	12%	9%
Bottom	13%	16%	11%	6%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Dundee United

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Dundee United
Position	11th	4th
Played	5	5
Won, drawn, lost	0–⁠2–⁠3	2–⁠2–⁠1
Points	2 (0.40 per game)	8 (1.60 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.02	0.97
Goals	3–⁠12	6–⁠4
xG per game	1.10–⁠1.71	1.11–⁠1.57
Home: points, xG per game	0.50, 2.14–⁠1.11	1.33, 0.98–⁠1.66
Away: points, xG per game	0.33, 0.41–⁠2.10	2.00, 1.30–⁠1.43
Manager	Derek McInnes (81)	Jim Goodwin (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Dundee United
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−51%	+32%	−12%	+22%
Counter-attacks	−80%	−82%	+46%	average
Set pieces	+88%	+5%	−14%	−41%
Penalties	+29%	+150%	−83%	+154%
Headers	−35%	−19%	+9%	−33%
Left side	−36%	−15%	+5%	−13%
Centre	−14%	+32%	−9%	+19%
Right side	−12%	+4%	−10%	−9%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't. Until a side has played six matches its figures are blended with last season's, or with the league average where there is no last season to use.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee United concededLeft side−36%−9%Centre−14%+19%Right side−12%−13%Open play−51%+22%Counter-attacks−80%averageSet pieces+88%−41%Headers−35%−33%

Dundee United attacking

Dundee United createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+5%+4%Centre−9%+32%Right side−10%−15%Open play−12%+32%Counter-attacks+46%−82%Set pieces−14%+5%Headers+9%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee United

1.10xG1.11

1.71xG against1.57

41%Possession41%

10.2Shots9.4

15.8Shots against14.0

2.4Shots on target3.4

2.0Big chances1.6

17.6Touches in the opposition box19.8

279Passes296

65%Pass accuracy66%

5.0Corners4.0

35%Field tilt41%

29.8Final-third entries27.8

6.6Box entries8.0

15.7Passes per defensive action18.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	30	0.73	1.78
Ahead	0	–	–
Behind	60	1.28	1.67

Dundee United

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	43	1.48	1.62
Ahead	31	0.99	1.85
Behind	17	0.34	0.92

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.26	0.20	1–2
16–30	0.06	0.20	0–2
31–45	0.09	0.58	0–3
46–60	0.04	0.24	0–2
61–75	0.24	0.19	1–1
76–90	0.42	0.30	1–2

Dundee United

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.27	0.07	1–1
16–30	0.18	0.39	1–1
31–45	0.06	0.39	0–0
46–60	0.33	0.13	2–0
61–75	0.16	0.15	0–0
76–90	0.11	0.44	2–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-4-2 (2), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Dundee United

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (4), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
24 May 2023	Dundee United	0–3	Kilmarnock	xG 0.99–1.90
1 February 2023	Kilmarnock	1–0	Dundee United	xG 2.71–1.37
9 November 2022	Dundee United	4–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.83–0.85
30 July 2022	Kilmarnock	1–1	Dundee United	xG 1.24–0.38
21 April 2021	Kilmarnock	3–0	Dundee United	xG 2.29–1.15
27 February 2021	Kilmarnock	1–1	Dundee United	xG 1.25–1.02

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Dundee United won 2, and 2 were drawn. Goals 13–8 and xG 1.51–0.96 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Armstrong	41	3,407	6	11	0.22	0.26
Vassell	36	2,867	9	3	0.28	0.05
Watkins	36	2,971	10	3	0.26	0.05
Kennedy	34	3,100	3	3	0.15	0.16

Dundee United

Player	Starts	Min	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Ferry	5	450	2	0.01	0.17
Sibbald	5	450	0	0.07	0.02
Gallagher	5	450	0	0.00	0.02
Walton	5	450	0	0.00	0.00

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes. Until a side has played six matches, last season's minutes at the club count too.