Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.
Match stats
HeartsFalkirk
1.10 −0.53xG0.74 −0.53
1.00 −0.92xG on target0.34 −0.85
17 +3Shots8 −4
4 −1.1Shots on target2 −1.9
1 −1.6Big chances1 −1.0
27 0Touches in the opposition box20 0
49% −4Possession51% 0
398 −18Passes409 +7
71% −5Pass accuracy72% −5
62% +4Field tilt38% −10
34 −6Final-third entries37 +2
11 −2Box entries10 0
13.2 +1Passes per defensive action17.7 +5
8 +2.7Corners4 −0.7
10 −8Tackles24 +5
14 +5.4Interceptions9 +0.1
19 −14Clearances35 +4
2 −0.3Saves4 +0.9
9 −2Fouls10 −2
3 +1.7Offsides1 −1.1
The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.
Chance locations
Hearts
Falkirk
Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.
xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.
Game state
45'
0–01–0
0'HTFT
Level
45 min (48%) · Hearts 0.37, Falkirk 0.48 xG
Hearts ahead
48 min (52%) · Hearts 0.72, Falkirk 0.26 xG
Line-ups
Hearts substitutes
81'Altena for Steinwender
82'Kaboré for Magnússon
84'McCart for Findlay
Falkirk substitutes
50'Marsh for Wilson
73'Allan for Donaldson
73'Cartwright for Spencer
73'Ross for Miller
73'Williams for Broggio
Players
Hearts
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Schwolow
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.02
1
0
Steinwender
RB
81
0.00
0.02
0
0.04
5
3
Halkett
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.03
3
8
Findlay
CB
84
0.10
0.01
0
0.06
5
9
Milne
LB
90
0.02
0.26
3
0.22
11
4
Leonard
DM
90
0.03
0.02
0
0.02
3
8
Magnússon
DM
82
0.02
0.08
2
0.09
6
1
Chesnokov
RW
90
1
0.21
0.01
1
0.01
5
4
Spittal
AM
90
0.25
0.08
0
0.09
3
3
Kyziridis
LW
90
0.26
0.02
1
0.14
5
2
Braga
ST
90
0.21
0.14
2
0.10
2
0
Altena
DF
9
0.00
0.01
0
0.01
0
1
Kaboré
FW
8
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
0
McCart
DF
6
0.00
0.09
1
0.06
3
1
Falkirk
Player
Pos
Min
G
A
xG
xA
KP
xT
Prog
Def
Bain
GK
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.04
4
1
Adams
RB
90
0.00
0.07
2
0.15
5
9
Donaldson
CB
73
0.02
0.01
0
0.06
5
10
Lissah
CB
90
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
4
10
McCann
LB
90
0.00
0.01
0
0.06
9
14
Spencer
DM
73
0.11
0.01
0
0.05
2
6
Tait
DM
90
0.00
0.06
1
0.07
9
4
Wilson
RW
50
0.10
0.02
1
0.08
2
3
Broggio
AM
73
0.19
0.01
1
−0.01
4
1
Miller
LW
73
0.00
0.03
1
0.01
4
1
Stewart
ST
90
0.30
0.00
0
0.01
1
6
Marsh
MF
40
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
1
3
Allan
DF
17
0.00
0.00
0
0.01
0
1
Cartwright
MF
17
0.00
0.00
0
0.00
0
5
Ross
FW
17
0.00
0.01
1
−0.01
0
0
Williams
FW
17
0.03
0.00
0
0.00
1
2
Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.
Pass networks
Hearts
Falkirk
Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.
Passing combinations
Hearts
From
To
Passes
Milne
Kyziridis
14
Milne
Spittal
10
Milne
Braga
8
Steinwender
Chesnokov
8
Leonard
Findlay
7
Falkirk
From
To
Passes
Lissah
Bain
17
Bain
Lissah
11
Lissah
McCann
9
McCann
Broggio
8
Spencer
Donaldson
8
The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.
Defensive actions
Hearts
Against its average of 27 matches
Falkirk
Against its average of 27 matches
Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.
Threat
Hearts
Falkirk
Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.
Ratings
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.
League probabilities
Chance
Before
With this result
Change
Hearts
Title
16%
21%
+5
Falkirk
Top six
96%
94%
−2
Celtic
Title
52%
49%
−3
Rangers
Title
32%
30%
−2
From the forecast before the match (21 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.
Pre-match
As things stood before kick-off.
Forecast
Measure
Hearts
Falkirk
Expected goals
1.58
0.93
Win
52%
21%
Expected Points
1.83
0.91
Clean sheet
40%
21%
Hearts 52%Draw 26%Falkirk 21%
Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.
From the forecast as it stood on 21 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.
League probabilities by result
Chance
Now
Hearts win
Draw
Falkirk win
Hearts
Title
16%
21%
12%
8%
Falkirk
Top six
96%
94%
97%
99%
Celtic
Title
52%
49%
53%
56%
Rangers
Title
32%
30%
34%
36%
Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.
The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.
Season to date
Measure
Hearts
Falkirk
Position
1st
6th
Played
27
27
Won, drawn, lost
17–6–4
11–6–10
Points
57 (2.11 per game)
39 (1.44 per game)
Expected Points per game
1.70
1.41
Goals
50–24
32–35
xG per game
1.63–1.05
1.27–1.26
Home: points, xG per game
2.38, 1.70–0.98
1.43, 1.48–1.08
Away: points, xG per game
1.86, 1.57–1.12
1.46, 1.05–1.46
Manager
Derek McInnes (27)
John McGlynn (27)
League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.
Ratings
This season
The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.
Strengths and weaknesses
Chances
Hearts
Falkirk
Created
Conceded
Created
Conceded
Open play
+15%
−15%
+2%
−16%
Counter-attacks
−2%
−32%
−7%
+14%
Set pieces
+28%
−25%
−17%
−22%
Penalties
+4%
−100%
−74%
+30%
Headers
+24%
+1%
−28%
+7%
Left side
+12%
−19%
−44%
−22%
Centre
+27%
−26%
−4%
−16%
Right side
−2%
−4%
+35%
−3%
xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.
Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.
Season averages
HeartsFalkirk
1.63xG1.27
1.05xG against1.26
53%Possession51%
13.9Shots12.4
10.1Shots against12.2
5.1Shots on target3.9
2.6Big chances2.0
27.1Touches in the opposition box20.1
416Passes402
76%Pass accuracy77%
5.3Corners4.7
59%Field tilt47%
40.4Final-third entries35.5
12.7Box entries10.5
11.9Passes per defensive action12.9
Per league match this season before kick-off.
Game state this season
Hearts
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
43
1.31
0.93
Ahead
33
1.99
1.20
Behind
13
1.81
1.03
Falkirk
State
Minutes per game
xG per 90
xG against per 90
Level
44
1.27
1.44
Ahead
21
1.43
0.80
Behind
24
1.14
1.33
xG by period
Hearts
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.21
0.13
4–3
16–30
0.21
0.10
10–5
31–45
0.29
0.19
7–5
46–60
0.30
0.15
10–4
61–75
0.18
0.19
7–2
76–90
0.44
0.28
12–5
Falkirk
Minutes
xG per game
xG against
Goals
1–15
0.20
0.15
3–1
16–30
0.26
0.25
6–7
31–45
0.22
0.31
3–11
46–60
0.21
0.17
8–5
61–75
0.20
0.19
7–5
76–90
0.18
0.20
5–6
Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.
This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.
Digressive Celts