Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Hibernian 1–1 Hearts

Sunday 27 October 2024, 12:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 9 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 20,011

Hibernian Kukharevych 65'

Hearts Wilson 87'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianHearts
Goals11
xG1.971.17
Expected Points1.960.80

Hibernian 57%Draw 25%Hearts 18%

Most likely score 2–1, 13%. Final score 1–1, 12%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%8%6%2%9%3%6%8%5%2%2%3%2%12%10%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTMoriah-Welsh on for Youan and Kukharevych on for Gayle, 61'Doyle-Hayes on for Hoilett, 82'Grant on for Vargas and Forrest on for Dhanda, 62'McKay on for Devlin and Wilson on for Boateng, 73'Forrester on for Oyegoke, 86'Kukharevych 65'Wilson 87'Hibernian 1.97Hearts 1.1701230153045607590HTMoriah-Welsh on for Youan and Kukharevych on for Gayle, 61'Doyle-Hayes on for Hoilett, 82'Grant on for Vargas and Forrest on for Dhanda, 62'McKay on for Devlin and Wilson on for Boateng, 73'Forrester on for Oyegoke, 86'Kukharevych 65'Wilson 87'1.971.17HibernianHearts

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianHearts

1.97 +0.87xG1.17 −0.03
2.29 +1.19xG on target0.94 −0.24
12 −1Shots11 −2
7 +3.6Shots on target2 −1.4
4 +2.5Big chances2 −0.1
19 −2Touches in the opposition box29 +2
36% −11Possession64% +9
289 −38Passes519 +69
70% −2Pass accuracy82% +5
28% −25Field tilt72% +17
20 −14Final-third entries46 +4
8 −0.4Box entries10 −2.4
33.3 +19Passes per defensive action15.9 +4
1 −5.2Corners6 −0.1
12 −2Tackles14 −7
10 +2.9Interceptions2 −7.6
34 +9Clearances21 +2
1 −1.4Saves5 +3.1
11 −2Fouls12 0
3 +1.9Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Triantis 83', 0.37 xGGayle 48', 0.15 xGEkpiteta 90+1', 0.14 xGGayle 34', 0.13 xGGayle 21', 0.12 xGBoyle 63', 0.11 xGMiller 45+2', 0.10 xGBoyle 11', 0.08 xGKwon 76', 0.05 xGEkpiteta 65', 0.02 xGKwon 34', 0.01 xGKukharevych 65', 0.68 xG, goal42%0.83 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.83 xG, 1 goal45%0.88 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.88 xG, 0 goals10%0.20 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals3%0.06 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hearts

Shankland 69', 0.20 xGSpittal 10', 0.12 xGRowles 72', 0.12 xGKent 90+4', 0.12 xGVargas 32', 0.11 xGShankland 53', 0.11 xGShankland 23', 0.07 xGSpittal 90+6', 0.06 xGSpittal 13', 0.03 xGShankland 77', 0.02 xGWilson 86', 0.21 xG, goal10%0.12 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals81%0.96 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.96 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianHearts

0.49 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.57 5 shots, 0 goals
0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.07 1 shot, 0 goals
1.40 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.54 5 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
76 min (78%) · Hibernian 1.55, Hearts 0.62 xG
Hibernian ahead
22 min (22%) · Hibernian 0.41, Hearts 0.55 xG

Line-ups

12452126181023734BursikMillerEkpitetaO'HoraObitaTriantisKwonBoyleHoilettYouanGayleYellow cardYellow card82'61'61'Hibernian 4-2-3-1David Gray152152920141816977GordonOyegokeKentRowlesPenriceDhandaDevlinBoatengSpittalShanklandVargasYellow cardYellow card86'62'73'73'62'Hearts 4-4-2Neil Critchley

Hibernian substitutes

  • 61' Kukharevych for Gayle · goal 65'
  • 61' Moriah-Welsh for Youan
  • 82' Doyle-Hayes for Hoilett

Hearts substitutes

  • 62' Forrest for Dhanda
  • 62' Grant for Vargas · yellow card 83'
  • 73' McKay for Devlin
  • 73' Wilson for Boateng · goal 87'
  • 86' Forrester for Oyegoke

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BursikGK900.000.0000.0553
MillerRB900.100.0730.0665
EkpitetaCB900.160.0000.13417
O'HoraCB900.000.0000.04314
ObitaLB900.000.0300.1075
Triantis DM900.370.0100.1032
KwonDM900.060.000−0.0114
Boyle RW900.190.1730.1232
HoilettAM820.000.242−0.0112
YouanLW610.000.0400.0413
GayleST610.400.0100.0000
KukharevychFW2910.680.0000.0011
Moriah-WelshFW290.000.0000.0000
Doyle-HayesMF80.000.0000.0002

Hearts

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GordonGK900.000.0000.0111
OyegokeRB860.000.0100.0343
KentCB900.120.0100.0753
RowlesCB900.120.0100.1035
Penrice LB900.000.3230.1898
DhandaRM620.000.1000.2752
Devlin CM730.000.0100.0103
BoatengCM730.000.0320.07100
SpittalLM900.210.0800.0934
ShanklandST900.400.3710.0111
VargasST620.110.0210.0121
ForrestMF280.000.010−0.0112
Grant MF280.000.2110.0825
McKayFW170.000.0000.0000
WilsonFW1710.210.0000.0003
ForresterDF40.000.0100.0210

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Bursik and Miller: 3 passesMiller and Triantis: 3 passesObita and Hoilett: 3 passesTriantis and Kwon: 3 passesTriantis and Hoilett: 3 passesKwon and Hoilett: 3 passesO'Hora and Triantis: 4 passesO'Hora and Kwon: 4 passesO'Hora and Youan: 4 passesMiller and Hoilett: 5 passesEkpiteta and Triantis: 5 passesTriantis and Gayle: 5 passesMiller and Kwon: 6 passesHoilett and Gayle: 6 passesTriantis and Youan: 7 passesObita and Youan: 8 passesO'Hora and Ekpiteta: 10 passesBursik and O'Hora: 13 passesO'Hora and Obita: 15 passesBursik and Ekpiteta: 19 passesMiller and Ekpiteta: 20 passesBursik: 27 completed passesMiller: 23 completed passesO'Hora: 26 completed passesEkpiteta: 33 completed passesObita: 17 completed passesBoyle: 2 completed passesTriantis: 19 completed passesKwon: 10 completed passesYouan: 10 completed passesHoilett: 10 completed passesGayle: 7 completed passes12542110261872334BursikMillerO'HoraEkpitetaObitaBoyleTriantisKwonYouanHoilettGayleStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hearts

Oyegoke and Boateng: 4 passesDhanda and Vargas: 4 passesBoateng and Shankland: 4 passesDhanda and Shankland: 5 passesKent and Boateng: 6 passesPenrice and Shankland: 6 passesDhanda and Devlin: 6 passesGordon and Rowles: 7 passesRowles and Spittal: 9 passesGordon and Kent: 10 passesRowles and Devlin: 10 passesKent and Devlin: 10 passesPenrice and Boateng: 10 passesOyegoke and Devlin: 11 passesOyegoke and Dhanda: 13 passesDevlin and Boateng: 13 passesBoateng and Spittal: 13 passesPenrice and Spittal: 16 passesRowles and Boateng: 20 passesRowles and Penrice: 29 passesOyegoke and Kent: 31 passesRowles and Kent: 50 passesGordon: 15 completed passesOyegoke: 33 completed passesRowles: 67 completed passesKent: 58 completed passesPenrice: 37 completed passesDhanda: 16 completed passesDevlin: 30 completed passesBoateng: 38 completed passesSpittal: 20 completed passesVargas: 6 completed passesShankland: 7 completed passes151522920141816779GordonOyegokeRowlesKentPenriceDhandaDevlinBoatengSpittalVargasShanklandStarters until 62' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
EkpitetaMiller12
MillerEkpiteta12
EkpitetaBursik12
O'HoraObita10
BursikEkpiteta10

Hearts

FromToPasses
RowlesKent31
KentRowles30
RowlesPenrice20
KentOyegoke19
PenriceRowles17

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

3−1.89+4.120+4.412+4.85+0.86−1.58+4.49+3.23−3.58+1.09+4.22−1.21−2.83−2.02−2.540.02−1.82−0.92−1.04−1.43+1.41−0.20−1.01+0.12−0.20−0.80−0.20−1.50−0.41+0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Hearts

4−0.813+0.23−4.19+3.64−3.14−2.06−0.14−2.47+0.73−3.34+0.40−3.18+2.68+1.73−1.82−1.22−1.41−1.96+2.40−2.72+0.10−0.70−0.91−0.70−0.71+0.60−1.10−0.33+1.81−5.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 9 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.020.010.010.040.010.020.030.020.010.030.03−0.010.020.020.010.020.010.01−0.050.080.020.110.14LessMore

Hearts

0.010.020.010.010.020.020.010.060.050.030.020.040.010.070.020.05−0.01−0.010.040.020.090.110.120.11LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.21 → 1.23Hearts1.36 → 1.35Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.40 → 1.38Hearts1.28 → 1.29

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six29%27%−2
11th11%11%0
Bottom9%9%0
Hearts
Top six44%43%−1
11th6%6%0
Bottom4%4%0

From the forecast before the match (27 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianHearts
Expected goals1.391.25
Win39%33%
Expected Points1.461.27
Clean sheet29%25%

Hibernian 39%Draw 27%Hearts 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Hearts goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+8%8%6%2%9%8%3%1%7%9%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawHearts win
Hibernian
Top six29%40%27%19%
11th11%8%11%14%
Bottom9%6%9%13%
Hearts
Top six44%34%43%55%
11th6%8%6%3%
Bottom4%6%4%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L2–319 OctDundee United (A)xG 0.71–1.79
  2. L1–25 OctMotherwell (H)xG 1.35–1.23
  3. L0–129 SepRangers (A)xG 2.16–1.78
  4. W2–014 SepSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.61–0.25
  5. D1–11 SepKilmarnock (A)xG 0.44–2.54
  6. D2–224 AugDundee FC (H)xG 0.88–0.84

Hearts

  1. W4–019 OctSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.73–0.24
  2. L2–36 OctAberdeen (A)xG 2.02–0.69
  3. D1–128 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.94–0.84
  4. L1–221 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.39–1.17
  5. L0–214 SepCeltic (A)xG 0.65–2.88
  6. L0–11 SepDundee United (H)xG 0.63–1.26

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianHearts
Position12th11th
Played89
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠2–⁠51–⁠2–⁠6
Points5 (0.62 per game)5 (0.56 per game)
Expected Points per game1.141.34
Goals8–⁠1410–⁠15
xG per game1.10–⁠1.531.20–⁠1.32
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 0.98–⁠1.231.25, 1.41–⁠0.77
Away: points, xG per game0.25, 1.22–⁠1.830.00, 1.04–⁠1.76
ManagerDavid Gray (10)Neil Critchley (0)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackHibernian1.21, 7thHearts1.36, 3rdDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.40, 7thHearts1.28, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctHibernian attack: 1.21Hearts attack: 1.361.361.21HeartsHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctHibernian defence: 1.40Hearts defence: 1.281.401.28

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianHearts
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−32%−13%−14%−17%
Counter-attacks−72%+244%−39%+18%
Set pieces+28%+4%+34%+5%
Penalties−12%−12%−100%+57%
Headers−32%+3%+11%+40%
Left side−28%+4%+10%+7%
Centre−30%+29%−11%−20%
Right side+13%−5%+2%+6%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdHearts concededLeft side−28%+6%Centre−30%−20%Right side+13%+7%Open play−32%−17%Counter-attacks−72%+18%Set pieces+28%+5%Headers−32%+40%

Hearts attacking

Hearts createdHibernian concededLeft side+10%−5%Centre−11%+29%Right side+2%+4%Open play−14%−13%Counter-attacks−39%+244%Set pieces+34%+4%Headers+11%+3%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianHearts

1.10xG1.20
1.53xG against1.32
47%Possession55%
12.6Shots12.9
11.8Shots against11.6
3.4Shots on target3.4
1.5Big chances2.1
21.5Touches in the opposition box26.9
327Passes450
72%Pass accuracy76%
6.2Corners6.1
53%Field tilt55%
33.5Final-third entries41.9
8.4Box entries12.4
14.3Passes per defensive action11.8

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.091.46
Ahead150.901.80
Behind321.211.49

Hearts

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level430.931.80
Ahead91.460.32
Behind381.461.00

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.300–2
16–300.130.260–2
31–450.340.053–1
46–600.170.152–2
61–750.260.233–0
76–900.100.540–7

Hearts

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.290.271–2
16–300.100.211–2
31–450.160.351–4
46–600.110.281–2
61–750.140.053–1
76–900.400.163–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBursik 8Miller 7Cadden 1Ekpiteta 8O'Hora 8Obita 8Kwon 6Campbell 1Moriah-Welsh 1Newell 5Triantis 3Boyle 4Cadden 3Youan 1Molotnikov 3Campbell 2Kukharevych 1Molotnikov 3Hoilett 3N. Cadden 2Kukharevych 6Campbell 1Vente 14-2-3-1 in 6 of 8 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (6), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Hearts

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTGordon 7Clark 2Taylor 4Oyegoke 2Kingsley 2Kent 6Halkett 3Rowles 7Kingsley 2Penrice 4Kingsley 2Spittal 1Baningime 3Devlin 3Penrice 1Boateng 5Grant 3Spittal 1Vargas 3Dhanda 2Oyegoke 1Grant 3Shankland 1Dhanda 1Spittal 3Vargas 2Forrest 2Shankland 8Vargas 14-2-3-1 in 4 of 9 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (4), 3-4-2-1 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
28 February 2024Hearts1–1HibernianxG 1.70–2.66
27 December 2023Hibernian0–1HeartsxG 1.85–1.30
7 October 2023Hearts2–2HibernianxG 1.25–1.32
27 May 2023Hearts1–1HibernianxG 0.11–1.50
15 April 2023Hibernian1–0HeartsxG 0.99–0.89
2 January 2023Hearts3–0HibernianxG 1.76–1.19

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 1, Hearts won 3, and 6 were drawn. Goals 7–12 and xG 1.36–1.15 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kukharevych7548100.380.03
Obita8720010.010.14
Kwon6501000.080.05
O'Hora8720100.060.05

Hearts

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Shankland9776130.340.16
Spittal5464210.100.17
Kent7630200.220.04
Vargas8604100.170.07

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.