Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 1–1 Dundee FC

Saturday 30 November 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 14 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee Ross Hardie · Attendance 5,454

Kilmarnock Wales 80'

Dundee FC Cameron 71'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee FC
Goals11
xG1.280.75
Expected Points1.760.93

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 32%Dundee FC 20%

Most likely score 1–0, 16%. Final score 1–1, 15%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+10%3%5%1%11%9%4%4%4%1%1%1%12%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTArmstrong on for Mackay-Steven, 75'Wales on for Murray and Polworth on for Anderson, 78'Cameron on for Vassell, 87'Ingram on for Sylla, 46'Adewumi on for Mulligan, 66'Wales 80'Cameron 71'Kilmarnock 1.28Dundee FC 0.7500.511.50153045607590HTArmstrong on for Mackay-Steven, 75'Wales on for Murray and Polworth on for Anderson, 78'Cameron on for Vassell, 87'Ingram on for Sylla, 46'Adewumi on for Mulligan, 66'Wales 80'Cameron 71'1.280.75KilmarnockDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.28 −0.05xG0.75 −0.59
1.14 +0.11xG on target1.18 −0.51
20 +7Shots10 −2
5 +1.9Shots on target4 −0.4
4 +2.2Big chances1 −0.8
30 +10Touches in the opposition box22 −2
59% +17Possession41% −8
360 +56Passes253 −94
68% +2Pass accuracy54% −18
67% +27Field tilt33% −18
36 +4Final-third entries11 −26
14 +4.7Box entries6 −6.3
10.4 −6Passes per defensive action24.5 +12
6 +0.6Corners3 −2.1
16 +1Tackles17 −1
7 −0.7Interceptions3 −5.0
46 +16Clearances53 +26
3 −0.1Saves4 +1.5
9 −2Fouls11 0
0 −1.4Offsides2 +0.5

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 84', 0.16 xGWales 90+6', 0.16 xGAnderson 56', 0.14 xGMackay-Steven 69', 0.14 xGLyons 84', 0.13 xGAnderson 28', 0.08 xGDeas 90+3', 0.08 xGWatkins 35', 0.06 xGAnderson 64', 0.06 xGNdaba 56', 0.04 xGMurray 39', 0.03 xGVassell 41', 0.03 xGWatkins 47', 0.03 xGWatkins 58', 0.03 xGArmstrong 77', 0.03 xGMackay-Steven 58', 0.02 xGMurray 59', 0.02 xGWales 86', 0.02 xGNdaba 63', 0.01 xGWales 80', 0.02 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals48%0.62 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.62 xG, 0 goals31%0.40 xGWide in the box: 5 shots, 0.40 xG, 1 goal16%0.20 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.20 xG, 0 goals5%0.07 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

McGhee 6', 0.17 xGAstley 6', 0.11 xGAdewumi 81', 0.10 xGMcGhee 5', 0.07 xGRobertson 29', 0.05 xGMurray 11', 0.04 xGCameron 8', 0.03 xGKoumetio 45', 0.03 xGAstley 83', 0.02 xGCameron 71', 0.13 xG, goal13%0.10 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.10 xG, 0 goals68%0.51 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.51 xG, 1 goal5%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals13%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee FC

0.95 15 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.40 6 shots, 1 goal
0.33 5 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.35 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
87 min (91%) · Kilmarnock 1.24, Dundee FC 0.75 xG
Dundee FC ahead
9 min (9%) · Kilmarnock 0.05, Dundee FC 0.00 xG

Line-ups

2045614819315239McCrorieWrightMayoDeasMackay-StevenLyonsAndersonNdabaMurrayWatkinsVassellYellow cardYellow card75'78'78'87'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes142920862810192315McCrackenAstleyPortalesKoumetioMulliganMcGheeSyllaCameronRobertsonHouldenMurrayYellow cardYellow cardGoal66'46'Dundee FC 3-5-2Tony Docherty

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 75' Armstrong for Mackay-Steven
  • 78' Polworth for Anderson
  • 78' Wales for Murray · goal 80'
  • 87' Cameron for Vassell

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 46' Ingram for Sylla
  • 66' Adewumi for Mulligan

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0450
WrightCB900.000.0100.03412
MayoCB900.000.0200.12814
Deas CB900.080.0410.121010
Mackay-StevenRWB750.160.0400.0754
LyonsCM900.130.0720.2083
AndersonCM780.280.0210.0103
NdabaLWB900.060.0100.0455
Murray AM780.050.1030.1355
WatkinsST900.280.0310.0927
VassellST8710.030.0520.0105
ArmstrongMF150.030.000−0.0100
PolworthMF120.000.0620.0550
WalesFW1210.200.000−0.0121
CameronFW30.000.000−0.0101

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0321
AstleyCB900.130.0200.01117
PortalesCB900.000.0000.03618
Koumetio CB900.030.0100.04311
MulliganRWB660.000.6710.2523
McGhee CM900.240.0110.0013
SyllaCM460.000.0000.0012
CameronCM9010.160.0110.0134
RobertsonLWB900.050.1630.0105
HouldenST900.000.0000.0001
MurrayST900.040.3420.2012
IngramDF440.000.0100.04213
AdewumiMF240.100.0000.1920

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

McCrorie and Lyons: 3 passesMayo and Vassell: 3 passesMackay-Steven and Watkins: 3 passesLyons and Vassell: 3 passesMurray and Watkins: 3 passesWright and Ndaba: 4 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 5 passesWright and Mayo: 5 passesMayo and Ndaba: 5 passesMurray and Vassell: 5 passesMcCrorie and Wright: 6 passesDeas and Murray: 6 passesMcCrorie and Mayo: 8 passesWright and Mackay-Steven: 8 passesWright and Lyons: 8 passesDeas and Mayo: 8 passesNdaba and Lyons: 8 passesDeas and Vassell: 9 passesMackay-Steven and Lyons: 9 passesDeas and Ndaba: 12 passesNdaba and Murray: 16 passesMayo and Lyons: 23 passesMcCrorie: 15 completed passesWright: 22 completed passesDeas: 27 completed passesMayo: 30 completed passesMackay-Steven: 14 completed passesNdaba: 25 completed passesLyons: 36 completed passesMurray: 16 completed passesAnderson: 6 completed passesWatkins: 1 completed passesVassell: 9 completed passes2046514381519239McCrorieWrightDeasMayoMackay-StevenNdabaLyonsMurrayAndersonWatkinsVassellStarters until 75' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee FC

McCracken and Portales: 3 passesMcCracken and Houlden: 3 passesKoumetio and Astley: 3 passesMulligan and Houlden: 3 passesKoumetio and Portales: 4 passesAstley and Mulligan: 4 passesAstley and McGhee: 5 passesMcGhee and Cameron: 6 passesMulligan and Cameron: 7 passesMulligan and McGhee: 10 passesRobertson and Cameron: 10 passesMcCracken: 8 completed passesKoumetio: 8 completed passesAstley: 12 completed passesPortales: 7 completed passesMulligan: 12 completed passesRobertson: 14 completed passesSylla: 4 completed passesMcGhee: 13 completed passesCameron: 12 completed passesHoulden: 4 completed passesMurray: 1 completed passes120429819286102315McCrackenKoumetioAstleyPortalesMulliganRobertsonSyllaMcGheeCameronHouldenMurrayStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LyonsMayo15
DeasVassell11
DeasNdaba11
NdabaMurray10
MayoDeas8

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
RobertsonCameron10
McGheeMulligan6
McCrackenHoulden6
CameronMcGhee5
McGheeCameron5

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

9+4.911+2.55−2.59+3.08+3.34−2.98+2.47+1.27+0.58+2.90−3.930.05+0.28+3.84+0.51−3.04+2.02−2.13−1.01−0.91−0.70−1.11−0.24+1.50−0.80−0.62+1.70−0.51+0.310−7.1FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Dundee FC

10+6.410+3.419+1.28+1.72−1.75−0.910+3.08+2.510+3.29+1.29+2.82−2.24+1.52−2.66+2.26+2.05+1.51−1.20−2.12−2.62−0.81−0.72+1.34+2.52−0.10−1.10−0.50−0.70−0.30−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 13 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.030.040.030.030.070.010.020.020.030.030.040.080.010.01−0.010.030.040.040.090.20LessMore

Dundee FC

0.010.020.010.030.010.020.010.040.01−0.010.010.060.040.200.010.33LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.21 → 1.21Dundee FC1.17 → 1.16Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39 → 1.37Dundee FC1.54 → 1.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six36%31%−5
11th8%8%0
Bottom5%6%+1
Dundee FC
Top six26%28%+2
11th12%12%0
Bottom10%9%−1

From the forecast before the match (30 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee FC
Expected goals1.641.08
Win50%25%
Expected Points1.750.99
Clean sheet34%19%

Kilmarnock 50%Draw 26%Dundee FC 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Both sides score 54%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%7%4%1%6%2%5%2%5%5%3%1%2%2%1%10%12%9%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee FC win
Kilmarnock
Top six36%44%31%23%
11th8%6%8%12%
Bottom5%3%6%9%
Dundee FC
Top six26%19%28%39%
11th12%14%12%8%
Bottom10%13%9%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–123 NovSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.45–1.02
  2. L0–210 NovCeltic (H)xG 2.22–2.12
  3. L2–33 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.04–1.58
  4. W2–130 OctHearts (A)xG 1.73–1.11
  5. L1–226 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.72–0.82
  6. W1–020 OctRangers (H)xG 0.63–1.14

Dundee FC

  1. W4–123 NovHibernian (H)xG 2.22–0.76
  2. L1–49 NovAberdeen (A)xG 1.89–1.81
  3. W3–23 NovKilmarnock (H)xG 1.58–1.04
  4. L0–230 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.16–4.62
  5. L1–226 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.43–2.17
  6. W1–019 OctMotherwell (A)xG 0.84–0.56

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee FC
Position10th7th
Played1313
Won, drawn, lost3–⁠3–⁠74–⁠3–⁠6
Points12 (0.92 per game)15 (1.15 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.29
Goals15–⁠2622–⁠25
xG per game1.33–⁠1.511.34–⁠1.67
Home: points, xG per game1.00, 1.89–⁠1.641.43, 1.52–⁠1.45
Away: points, xG per game0.88, 0.99–⁠1.430.83, 1.14–⁠1.92
ManagerDerek McInnes (89)Tony Docherty (51)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackKilmarnock1.21, 6thDundee FC1.17, 8thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.39, 5thDundee FC1.54, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock attack: 1.21Dundee FC attack: 1.171.211.17Dundee FCKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovKilmarnock defence: 1.39Dundee FC defence: 1.541.541.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%+6%−5%+16%
Counter-attacks−57%−12%+34%+26%
Set pieces+47%+7%−49%+34%
Penalties−51%+46%+94%−3%
Headers+18%−28%average+8%
Left side−11%−2%−12%−19%
Centre+3%+10%−15%+30%
Right side+2%average−11%+47%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−11%+47%Centre+3%+30%Right side+2%−19%Open play−12%+16%Counter-attacks−57%+26%Set pieces+47%+34%Headers+18%+8%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−12%averageCentre−15%+10%Right side−11%−2%Open play−5%+6%Counter-attacks+34%−12%Set pieces−49%+7%Headersaverage−28%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.33xG1.34
1.51xG against1.67
42%Possession49%
13.1Shots11.8
14.8Shots against15.2
3.1Shots on target4.4
1.8Big chances1.8
20.2Touches in the opposition box23.8
304Passes347
66%Pass accuracy72%
5.4Corners5.1
40%Field tilt51%
31.9Final-third entries36.6
9.3Box entries12.3
15.9Passes per defensive action12.9

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level431.251.31
Ahead91.222.39
Behind381.441.54

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level351.382.13
Ahead251.051.28
Behind291.551.45

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.150.191–2
16–300.150.221–4
31–450.230.292–6
46–600.150.243–4
61–750.310.253–3
76–900.340.335–7

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.190.292–4
16–300.220.185–3
31–450.380.257–5
46–600.150.272–3
61–750.120.241–5
76–900.280.435–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 9O'Hara 4Mayo 5Lyons 2Armstrong 2Mayo 6Deas 5Wright 4Findlay 9Ndaba 2Ndaba 6Lyons 3Deas 3Armstrong 9Wright 1Watson 1Donnelly 6Lyons 4Watkins 1Watson 8Polworth 4Kennedy 1Kennedy 10Ndaba 1Lyons 1Vassell 12Cameron 1Watkins 8Anderson 2Watson 14-4-2 in 8 of 13 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (8), 3-5-2 (1), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTMcCracken 10Carson 3C. Robertson 8Astley 5Houlden 4Portales 10McGhee 3Koumetio 8Graham 1Ingram 9McGhee 3Tiffoney 1Cameron 13Tiffoney 2Braybrooke 2Sylla 11F. Robert… 2F. RobertsonMulligan 4McCowan 3Fraser 1Larkeche 12F. Roberts… 1F. RobertsonMurray 13Sylla 1Main 4Houlden 3Tiffoney 33-5-2 in 5 of 13 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (5), 4-3-3 (4), 3-4-2-1 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
3 November 2024Dundee FC3–2KilmarnockxG 1.58–1.04
5 October 2024Dundee FC2–3KilmarnockxG 0.62–2.72
18 May 2024Dundee FC1–1KilmarnockxG 1.69–1.11
2 March 2024Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–1.56
30 December 2023Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 0.69–0.53
23 September 2023Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.49–3.56

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Dundee FC won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 12–12 and xG 1.78–1.24 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy11948410.190.32
Watkins9770300.450.04
Vassell12901100.310.08
Armstrong11847030.060.18

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Houlden7631310.440.06
Murray131,103400.350.09
Tiffoney6595210.210.11
Mulligan4460010.040.23

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.