Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Dundee FC 2–3 Kilmarnock

Saturday 5 October 2024, 15:00 · The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park · Round 7 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 5,316

Dundee FC Larkeche 24', Adewumi 81' · Sylla sent off 43'

Kilmarnock Kennedy 86', 90+4', Anderson 88'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Goals23
xG0.622.72
Expected Points0.202.69

Dundee FC 3%Draw 11%Kilmarnock 86%

Most likely score 0–2, 16%. Final score 2–3, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%8%3%1%6%11%10%6%2%2%3%3%2%16%14%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTSylla (Dundee FC), second yellow card 43'Fraser on for Main, 46'Houlden on for Murray, 66'Adewumi on for Tiffoney, 67'Astley on for Ingram, 89'Anderson on for Donnelly and McKenzie on for Watson, 63'Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong and Burroughs on for Mayo, 76'Wales on for Vassell, 87'Larkeche 24'Adewumi 81'Kennedy 86'Anderson 88'Kennedy 90+4'Kilmarnock 2.72Dundee FC 0.6201230153045607590HTSylla (Dundee FC), second yellow card 43'Fraser on for Main, 46'Houlden on for Murray, 66'Adewumi on for Tiffoney, 67'Astley on for Ingram, 89'Anderson on for Donnelly and McKenzie on for Watson, 63'Mackay-Steven on for Armstrong and Burroughs on for Mayo, 76'Wales on for Vassell, 87'Larkeche 24'Adewumi 81'Kennedy 86'Anderson 88'Kennedy 90+4'2.720.62Dundee FCKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCKilmarnock

0.62 −0.83xG2.72 +1.42
1.32 −0.33xG on target2.09 +1.14
10 −2Shots25 +14
3 −1.8Shots on target5 +2.5
0 −1.8Big chances3 +0.8
18 −4Touches in the opposition box27 +8
36% −18Possession64% +22
257 −94Passes433 +142
62% −9Pass accuracy81% +15
33% −27Field tilt67% +32
30 −11Final-third entries54 +23
9 −2.0Box entries12 +3.3
15.1 +5Passes per defensive action12.0 −5
2 −4.0Corners10 +4.7
14 −7Tackles13 0
11 +2.0Interceptions3 −4.8
37 +10Clearances27 −5
3 +0.5Saves1 −2.3
13 +3.7Fouls9 −1.7
1 −1.0Offsides3 +2.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Murray 46', 0.11 xGMurray 4', 0.06 xGPortales 90+7', 0.06 xGC. Robertson 31', 0.05 xGLarkeche 23', 0.04 xGKoumetio 48', 0.04 xGMain 19', 0.03 xGAdewumi 87', 0.02 xGLarkeche 24', 0.13 xG, goalAdewumi 81', 0.08 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals39%0.24 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal21%0.13 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.13 xG, 1 goal37%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals3%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Wales 90', 0.15 xGVassell 74', 0.13 xGWatkins 76', 0.12 xGVassell 84', 0.12 xGVassell 56', 0.11 xGAnderson 79', 0.11 xGVassell 32', 0.09 xGWatkins 45+2', 0.09 xGVassell 79', 0.08 xGVassell 75', 0.06 xGAnderson 86', 0.06 xGNdaba 49', 0.05 xGWatson 28', 0.04 xGDonnelly 32', 0.04 xGVassell 13', 0.03 xGDonnelly 54', 0.03 xGDeas 56', 0.03 xGLyons 79', 0.03 xGKennedy 62', 0.02 xGLyons 72', 0.02 xGLyons 80', 0.02 xGMackay-Steven 80', 0.02 xGKennedy 90+4', 0.92 xG, goalAnderson 88', 0.29 xG, goalKennedy 86', 0.04 xG, goal25%0.67 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 0.67 xG, 1 goal63%1.71 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 1.71 xG, 1 goal1%0.04 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 1 goal10%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 8 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals1%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCKilmarnock

0.46 7 shots, 2 goalsOpen play2.19 18 shots, 3 goals
0.16 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.52 7 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
30 min (30%) · Dundee FC 0.26, Kilmarnock 1.10 xG
Dundee FC ahead
66 min (67%) · Dundee FC 0.30, Kilmarnock 1.62 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
3 min (3%) · Dundee FC 0.06, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

12932027281021915McCrackenPortalesC. RobertsonKoumetioIngramTiffoneySyllaCameronLarkecheMainMurrayYellow cardSent off, second yellowGoalYellow card89'67'46'66'Dundee FC 3-5-2Tony Docherty20653112281223109McCrorieDeasMayoNdabaArmstrongDonnellyLyonsWatsonWatkinsKennedyVassellYellow cardGoalGoal76'76'63'63'87'Kilmarnock 3-4-2-1Derek McInnes

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 46' Fraser for Main
  • 66' Houlden for Murray · 1 assist
  • 67' Adewumi for Tiffoney · goal 81'
  • 89' Astley for Ingram

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' McKenzie for Watson
  • 63' Anderson for Donnelly · goal 88'
  • 76' Burroughs for Mayo
  • 76' Mackay-Steven for Armstrong · 1 assist
  • 87' Wales for Vassell · 1 assist

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0111
PortalesCB900.060.0110.0446
C. RobertsonCB900.050.0100.07617
KoumetioCB900.040.1110.20518
IngramRWB890.000.0100.0016
TiffoneyCM670.000.0400.0556
Sylla CM430.000.1410.0400
CameronCM9010.000.3020.0874
LarkecheLWB9010.170.0110.0443
MainST460.030.000−0.0101
Murray ST660.170.0000.0111
FraserMF440.000.000−0.0103
HouldenFW2410.000.0410.0512
AdewumiMF2310.100.0000.0212
AstleyDF10.000.0000.0002

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0112
DeasCB900.030.0110.0578
Mayo CB760.000.0100.0593
NdabaCB900.050.0210.15128
ArmstrongRWB760.000.1610.1942
DonnellyCM630.070.0100.0235
LyonsCM900.080.222−0.0138
WatsonLWB630.040.010−0.0101
WatkinsAM900.210.0000.0100
KennedyAM9020.980.4980.51212
VassellST870.620.1220.2032
McKenzieMF270.000.0720.1650
AndersonFW2710.460.0000.0111
BurroughsDF140.000.0610.2021
Mackay-StevenFW1410.020.0610.0772
WalesFW310.150.6210.1300

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

Koumetio and C. Robertson: 3 passesKoumetio and Main: 3 passesC. Robertson and Tiffoney: 3 passesC. Robertson and Murray: 3 passesPortales and Tiffoney: 3 passesIngram and Larkeche: 3 passesCameron and Tiffoney: 3 passesPortales and Ingram: 4 passesPortales and Sylla: 4 passesLarkeche and Main: 4 passesSylla and Cameron: 4 passesPortales and Cameron: 5 passesC. Robertson and Portales: 6 passesC. Robertson and Cameron: 6 passesIngram and Cameron: 6 passesLarkeche and Cameron: 7 passesLarkeche and Tiffoney: 8 passesKoumetio and Cameron: 10 passesMcCracken: 5 completed passesKoumetio: 11 completed passesC. Robertson: 14 completed passesPortales: 14 completed passesIngram: 11 completed passesLarkeche: 15 completed passesSylla: 8 completed passesCameron: 25 completed passesTiffoney: 6 completed passesMain: 6 completed passesMurray: 3 completed passes12032922128107915McCrackenKoumetioC. RobertsonPortalesIngramLarkecheSyllaCameronTiffoneyMainMurrayStarters until 43' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Ndaba and Mayo: 4 passesMayo and Kennedy: 4 passesDeas and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 4 passesDonnelly and Vassell: 4 passesLyons and Watson: 4 passesDeas and Kennedy: 5 passesKennedy and Vassell: 5 passesDonnelly and Lyons: 5 passesNdaba and Lyons: 6 passesMayo and Armstrong: 6 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 6 passesNdaba and Donnelly: 8 passesMayo and Vassell: 8 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 10 passesMayo and Lyons: 12 passesKennedy and Donnelly: 12 passesKennedy and Lyons: 13 passesDeas and Lyons: 17 passesMayo and Deas: 18 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 19 passesNdaba and Deas: 24 passesMcCrorie: 15 completed passesNdaba: 35 completed passesMayo: 33 completed passesDeas: 43 completed passesArmstrong: 15 completed passesKennedy: 31 completed passesDonnelly: 18 completed passesLyons: 39 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesWatkins: 2 completed passesVassell: 8 completed passes20356111022812239McCrorieNdabaMayoDeasArmstrongKennedyDonnellyLyonsWatsonWatkinsVassellStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
CameronLarkeche8
CameronKoumetio8
KoumetioCameron7
C. RobertsonPortales6
LarkecheTiffoney6

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy21
DeasNdaba19
DeasMayo15
NdabaDeas14
LyonsDeas13

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

4−0.28+1.333+16.78+1.75+1.37+0.57+0.33−2.58+0.57−1.21−6.05+0.72−0.74−0.53−1.22−1.23−0.73+0.21−1.55+0.22−1.22+0.210.02−0.220.00−1.80−0.22+1.70−0.70−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Kilmarnock

1−2.79−1.08+0.76+1.06+1.86−1.73−2.33−3.05−0.87+2.23−1.00−2.85+1.51−3.53+0.21−2.71−0.74−0.33−1.01−1.00−2.010.00−0.81−1.52+1.80−0.51+0.71+0.70−0.712−8.0FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 6 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.010.010.010.020.030.010.030.020.010.040.05−0.010.010.030.010.060.050.090.08LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.010.010.020.020.030.050.020.020.040.030.060.020.080.140.07−0.03−0.020.010.110.18−0.05−0.100.150.83LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee FC1.13 → 1.11Kilmarnock1.18 → 1.23Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.54 → 1.59Kilmarnock1.42 → 1.39

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six24%15%−9
11th13%18%+5
Bottom11%15%+4
Kilmarnock
Top six24%34%+10
11th13%9%−4
Bottom9%5%−4

From the forecast before the match (5 October 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.421.23
Win41%32%
Expected Points1.491.24
Clean sheet29%24%

Dundee FC 41%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 32%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%8%5%2%8%3%1%7%9%5%2%3%4%3%1%1%1%9%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 5 October 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee FC
Top six24%32%22%15%
11th13%10%13%18%
Bottom11%7%11%15%
Kilmarnock
Top six24%17%24%34%
11th13%16%13%9%
Bottom9%12%9%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L1–228 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–0.62
  2. L0–214 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.66–1.43
  3. D2–231 AugSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.76–1.34
  4. D2–224 AugHibernian (A)xG 0.84–0.88
  5. W3–110 AugHearts (H)xG 1.53–1.52
  6. D2–24 AugDundee United (A)xG 2.42–2.21

Kilmarnock

  1. D3–328 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.31–2.73
  2. D2–214 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–1.53
  3. D1–11 SepHibernian (H)xG 2.54–0.44
  4. L0–225 AugAberdeen (A)xG 0.43–1.66
  5. L0–311 AugSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.74–1.79
  6. L0–44 AugCeltic (A)xG 0.20–3.11

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position8th11th
Played66
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠3–⁠20–⁠3–⁠3
Points6 (1.00 per game)3 (0.50 per game)
Expected Points per game1.441.03
Goals10–⁠116–⁠15
xG per game1.45–⁠1.331.30–⁠1.88
Home: points, xG per game1.33, 1.60–⁠1.160.67, 2.20–⁠1.65
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 1.31–⁠1.510.33, 0.41–⁠2.10
ManagerTony Docherty (44)Derek McInnes (82)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.34AttackDundee FC1.13, 9thKilmarnock1.18, 7thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.54, 10thKilmarnock1.42, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepDundee FC attack: 1.13Kilmarnock attack: 1.181.181.13KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepDundee FC defence: 1.54Kilmarnock defence: 1.421.541.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−23%−32%−47%+50%
Counter-attacks+136%+74%−87%−97%
Set pieces−54%+35%+124%−11%
Penalties+171%−10%−10%+171%
Headers−36%−5%+23%−28%
Left side−6%−11%−36%−17%
Centre−17%−18%+5%+44%
Right side−19%+38%−3%+4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−6%+4%Centre−17%+44%Right side−19%−17%Open play−23%+50%Counter-attacks+136%−97%Set pieces−54%−11%Headers−36%−28%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−36%+38%Centre+5%−18%Right side−3%−11%Open play−47%−32%Counter-attacks−87%+74%Set pieces+124%+35%Headers+23%−5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.45xG1.30
1.33xG against1.88
54%Possession42%
11.8Shots11.0
12.2Shots against16.3
4.8Shots on target2.5
1.8Big chances2.2
22.3Touches in the opposition box18.5
351Passes291
71%Pass accuracy66%
6.0Corners5.3
59%Field tilt35%
41.2Final-third entries30.7
11.0Box entries8.7
10.2Passes per defensive action17.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.221.64
Ahead171.201.47
Behind431.721.07

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level301.042.07
Ahead62.893.55
Behind541.281.61

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.241–3
16–300.280.213–2
31–450.350.343–4
46–600.130.151–0
61–750.190.190–2
76–900.410.202–0

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.280.231–2
16–300.050.340–3
31–450.110.490–3
46–600.140.232–2
61–750.370.162–1
76–900.360.431–4

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWMcCracken 6Ingram 4McGhee 2Portales 5McGhee 2Koumetio 4Graham 1Larkeche 6Cameron 6Braybrooke 2Tiffoney 1Sylla 5McCowan 3Houlden 3Portales 1Tiffoney 1Murray 4Sylla 1Main 1Tiffoney 3Murray 2Houlden 14-3-3 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (3), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTO'Hara 4McCrorie 2Lyons 2Burroughs 2Armstrong 1Mayo 3Wright 2Findlay 6Deas 1Ndaba 3Lyons 1Deas 1Armstrong 4Wright 1Murray 1Watson 4Burroughs 1Donnelly 1Polworth 4Lyons 1Kennedy 5Murray 1Vassell 5Cameron 1Watkins 3Watson 1Anderson 14-4-2 in 3 of 6 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
18 May 2024Dundee FC1–1KilmarnockxG 1.69–1.11
2 March 2024Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–1.56
30 December 2023Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 0.69–0.53
23 September 2023Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.49–3.56

4 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 0, Kilmarnock won 0, and 4 were drawn. Goals 7–7 and xG 1.31–1.73 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray6529200.290.05
Cameron6523020.090.14
Larkeche6476100.090.09
Portales6540010.030.03

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Findlay6470000.080.04

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.