Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Dundee FC 3–2 Kilmarnock

Sunday 3 November 2024, 15:15 · The Scot Foam Stadium at Dens Park · Round 23 · Half-time 1–2 · Referee Dan McFarlane · Attendance 5,014

Dundee FC Houlden 41', McGhee 56', Larkeche 90+4'

Kilmarnock Anderson 24', Kennedy 40'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Goals32
xG1.581.04
Expected Points1.740.96

Dundee FC 48%Draw 29%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 17%. Final score 3–2, 3%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+5%8%4%9%7%2%8%6%1%4%6%3%1%2%17%13%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTMulligan on for Cameron and McGhee on for Ingram, 46'Tiffoney on for Adewumi, 64'Koumetio on for C. Robertson, 84'Wright on for Findlay, 33'Burroughs on for Armstrong, 52'McKenzie on for Watson and Cameron on for Anderson, 74'Houlden 41'McGhee 56'Larkeche 90+4'Anderson 24'Kennedy 40'Dundee FC 1.58Kilmarnock 1.0400.511.520153045607590HTMulligan on for Cameron and McGhee on for Ingram, 46'Tiffoney on for Adewumi, 64'Koumetio on for C. Robertson, 84'Wright on for Findlay, 33'Burroughs on for Armstrong, 52'McKenzie on for Watson and Cameron on for Anderson, 74'Houlden 41'McGhee 56'Larkeche 90+4'Anderson 24'Kennedy 40'1.581.04Dundee FCKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.58 +0.40xG1.04 −0.32
2.40 +0.91xG on target1.38 +0.33
17 +6Shots15 +2
5 +0.9Shots on target4 +1.1
4 +2.7Big chances2 0.0
34 +13Touches in the opposition box15 −4
55% +8Possession45% +3
391 +65Passes324 +23
78% +9Pass accuracy73% +7
53% +4Field tilt47% +9
45 +10Final-third entries43 +12
17 +6.9Box entries9 +0.3
13.9 0Passes per defensive action11.5 −5
7 +2.3Corners1 −3.9
10 −9Tackles11 −4
3 −6.0Interceptions6 −2.6
30 +2Clearances36 +6
2 −0.6Saves2 −1.0
15 +5Fouls9 −1
1 −0.5Offsides2 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Tiffoney 80', 0.30 xGHoulden 10', 0.18 xGAdewumi 35', 0.12 xGHoulden 56', 0.09 xGPortales 43', 0.08 xGMulligan 51', 0.08 xGHoulden 74', 0.06 xGLarkeche 83', 0.05 xGAdewumi 17', 0.03 xGCameron 43', 0.03 xGAdewumi 12', 0.02 xGCameron 28', 0.02 xGPortales 90+3', 0.02 xGC. Robertson 43', 0.01 xGMcGhee 56', 0.30 xG, goalLarkeche 90+4', 0.10 xG, goalHoulden 41', 0.09 xG, goal19%0.30 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.30 xG, 1 goal42%0.67 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 0.67 xG, 2 goals36%0.57 xGWide in the box: 6 shots, 0.57 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Anderson 24', 0.13 xGKennedy 5', 0.06 xGWright 69', 0.06 xGKennedy 61', 0.04 xGNdaba 73', 0.03 xGWright 45+3', 0.02 xGDeas 70', 0.02 xGAnderson 73', 0.02 xGLyons 82', 0.02 xGNdaba 84', 0.02 xGAnderson 28', 0.01 xGKennedy 52', 0.01 xGWright 79', 0.01 xGAnderson 24', 0.53 xG, goalKennedy 40', 0.07 xG, goal63%0.66 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.66 xG, 1 goal20%0.21 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.21 xG, 1 goal4%0.04 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals5%0.05 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals8%0.08 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.08 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCKilmarnock

0.98 10 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.92 11 shots, 2 goals
0.03 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.57 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.13 4 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
62 min (63%) · Dundee FC 0.76, Kilmarnock 0.80 xG
Dundee FC ahead
1 min (1%) · Dundee FC 0.00, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
35 min (36%) · Dundee FC 0.83, Kilmarnock 0.24 xG

Line-ups

142932102821112315McCrackenAstleyPortalesC. RobertsonIngramCameronSyllaLarkecheAdewumiHouldenMurrayGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal84'46'46'64'Dundee FC 3-4-2-1Tony Docherty20561711128103919McCrorieMayoDeasFindlayArmstrongWatsonLyonsKennedyNdabaVassellAndersonGoalYellow cardGoal33'52'74'74'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 46' McGhee for Ingram · goal 56'
  • 46' Mulligan for Cameron · 1 assist
  • 64' Tiffoney for Adewumi
  • 84' Koumetio for C. Robertson

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 33' Wright for Findlay
  • 52' Burroughs for Armstrong
  • 74' McKenzie for Watson
  • 74' Cameron for Anderson

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0101
AstleyCB900.000.0200.08710
PortalesCB900.100.0100.1099
C. RobertsonCB840.010.0100.12810
IngramRWB460.000.1910.3072
CameronCM460.050.0620.0111
SyllaCM900.000.0100.0156
Larkeche LWB9010.150.0210.0891
Adewumi AM6410.170.2120.1410
HouldenAM9010.430.0310.0540
MurrayST900.000.2830.1961
McGheeDF4410.300.0100.0123
MulliganMF4410.080.4020.3070
TiffoneyFW260.300.0000.0001
KoumetioDF60.000.0010.0002

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrorieGK900.000.0000.0111
MayoCB900.000.0200.0787
DeasCB900.020.0210.06713
FindlayCB330.000.0000.0214
ArmstrongRWB5210.000.1710.1823
WatsonCM740.000.4020.1951
LyonsCM900.020.022−0.0136
KennedyCM9010.180.2320.29113
Ndaba LWB900.050.0200.0987
VassellST900.000.0310.0111
AndersonST7410.690.0200.0411
WrightDF570.090.0000.0119
BurroughsDF380.000.0510.0924
McKenzieMF160.000.000−0.0201
CameronFW160.000.0100.0240

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

Portales and Murray: 4 passesIngram and Cameron: 4 passesIngram and Murray: 4 passesLarkeche and Murray: 4 passesSylla and Adewumi: 4 passesAdewumi and Murray: 4 passesC. Robertson and Portales: 5 passesPortales and Sylla: 5 passesCameron and Adewumi: 5 passesMcCracken and Portales: 6 passesC. Robertson and Sylla: 6 passesC. Robertson and Adewumi: 6 passesAstley and Houlden: 6 passesLarkeche and Sylla: 6 passesLarkeche and Cameron: 7 passesAstley and Cameron: 9 passesAstley and Portales: 11 passesPortales and Cameron: 11 passesC. Robertson and Cameron: 13 passesMcCracken: 7 completed passesC. Robertson: 24 completed passesAstley: 21 completed passesPortales: 25 completed passesIngram: 14 completed passesLarkeche: 10 completed passesSylla: 18 completed passesCameron: 29 completed passesAdewumi: 13 completed passesHoulden: 5 completed passesMurray: 9 completed passes134292212810112315McCrackenC. RobertsonAstleyPortalesIngramLarkecheSyllaCameronAdewumiHouldenMurrayStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Kilmarnock

Findlay and Kennedy: 3 passesDeas and Armstrong: 3 passesKennedy and Lyons: 3 passesWatson and Anderson: 3 passesFindlay and Watson: 4 passesFindlay and Deas: 5 passesFindlay and Lyons: 5 passesMayo and Lyons: 5 passesDeas and Lyons: 5 passesNdaba and Vassell: 5 passesMcCrorie and Deas: 6 passesMayo and Deas: 6 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 6 passesMcCrorie and Findlay: 8 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 8 passesMayo and Armstrong: 8 passesNdaba and Watson: 8 passesMcCrorie: 10 completed passesFindlay: 16 completed passesMayo: 14 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 7 completed passesNdaba: 19 completed passesKennedy: 6 completed passesWatson: 12 completed passesLyons: 14 completed passesAnderson: 3 completed passesVassell: 6 completed passes20175611310128199McCrorieFindlayMayoDeasArmstrongNdabaKennedyWatsonLyonsAndersonVassellStarters until 33' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
AstleyPortales15
PortalesC. Robertson14
PortalesAstley13
C. RobertsonLarkeche10
CameronPortales8

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaWatson7
MayoArmstrong7
LyonsKennedy7
NdabaKennedy7
KennedyVassell6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

7+0.518−0.86−0.74+0.25−1.38+1.08+2.56−1.06−1.66−0.46+2.12−0.76+1.33−0.75+1.82−0.42−0.44−1.00−1.70−0.90−1.720.01−0.41+0.61+0.40−0.40−0.61−3.10−3.20−2.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Kilmarnock

3−0.920+1.711+3.79+3.28+4.011+4.04−1.49+2.64−1.45+0.81−2.16+1.54−0.33−0.14+0.33+1.26+2.02−1.61−0.73+1.41+0.11+0.31−1.71+0.50−0.50−0.30−0.41+0.45−4.22−3.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 10 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.030.010.010.020.050.020.020.030.050.070.050.040.040.010.140.010.130.07−0.010.150.240.20LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.020.010.010.030.03−0.010.030.040.020.050.030.050.080.010.020.02−0.010.130.150.160.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee FC1.08 → 1.11Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.23Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.61 → 1.58Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six11%16%+5
11th19%17%−2
Bottom25%17%−8
Kilmarnock
Top six60%50%−10
11th3%5%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
St. Johnstone
Top six8%8%0
11th21%21%0
Bottom25%27%+2

From the forecast before the match (3 November 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.291.34
Win35%38%
Expected Points1.321.40
Clean sheet26%28%

Dundee FC 35%Draw 27%Kilmarnock 38%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%1%9%8%4%1%6%8%5%2%3%3%2%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 3 November 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee FC
Top six11%16%10%7%
11th19%17%19%21%
Bottom25%17%27%30%
Kilmarnock
Top six60%50%57%70%
11th3%5%3%2%
Bottom2%3%1%1%
St. Johnstone
Top six8%8%8%7%
11th21%21%21%21%
Bottom25%27%25%23%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. L0–230 OctCeltic (A)xG 0.16–4.62
  2. L1–226 OctSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.43–2.17
  3. W1–019 OctMotherwell (A)xG 0.84–0.56
  4. L2–35 OctKilmarnock (H)xG 0.62–2.72
  5. L1–228 SepAberdeen (H)xG 1.50–0.62
  6. L0–214 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.66–1.43

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–130 OctHearts (A)xG 1.73–1.11
  2. L1–226 OctRoss County (A)xG 0.72–0.82
  3. W1–020 OctRangers (H)xG 0.63–1.14
  4. W3–25 OctDundee FC (A)xG 2.72–0.62
  5. D3–328 SepDundee United (H)xG 2.31–2.73
  6. D2–214 SepSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–1.53

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position10th7th
Played1010
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠3–⁠53–⁠3–⁠4
Points9 (0.90 per game)12 (1.20 per game)
Expected Points per game1.121.28
Goals14–⁠1813–⁠20
xG per game1.18–⁠1.811.36–⁠1.50
Home: points, xG per game0.80, 1.37–⁠1.671.25, 1.80–⁠1.52
Away: points, xG per game1.00, 0.98–⁠1.941.17, 1.07–⁠1.47
ManagerTony Docherty (48)Derek McInnes (86)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee FC1.08, 10thKilmarnock1.24, 6thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.61, 12thKilmarnock1.35, 5th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee FC attack: 1.08Kilmarnock attack: 1.241.241.08KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDundee FC defence: 1.61Kilmarnock defence: 1.351.611.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−21%+34%−15%+15%
Counter-attacks+76%+47%−83%−98%
Set pieces−60%+31%+70%+4%
Penalties+95%+30%−35%+95%
Headers−13%+15%+34%−46%
Left side−20%−3%−25%−21%
Centre−25%+47%+17%+7%
Right side−23%+41%+2%+16%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−20%+16%Centre−25%+7%Right side−23%−21%Open play−21%+15%Counter-attacks+76%−98%Set pieces−60%+4%Headers−13%−46%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−25%+41%Centre+17%+47%Right side+2%−3%Open play−15%+34%Counter-attacks−83%+47%Set pieces+70%+31%Headers+34%+15%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.18xG1.36
1.81xG against1.50
47%Possession42%
10.7Shots12.5
15.2Shots against15.5
4.1Shots on target2.9
1.3Big chances2.0
20.8Touches in the opposition box18.7
326Passes301
69%Pass accuracy66%
4.7Corners4.9
49%Field tilt38%
34.5Final-third entries30.6
10.1Box entries8.7
13.4Passes per defensive action16.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level341.142.50
Ahead270.781.46
Behind291.581.31

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.231.42
Ahead81.432.41
Behind411.471.38

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.292–3
16–300.200.154–2
31–450.270.314–4
46–600.130.301–1
61–750.120.230–4
76–900.270.523–4

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.151–2
16–300.080.260–4
31–450.200.331–4
46–600.140.243–2
61–750.330.203–2
76–900.430.315–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTMcCracken 8Carson 2C. Robertson 5Astley 3Houlden 3Portales 8McGhee 3Koumetio 7Graham 1Ingram 8Tiffoney 1McGhee 1Cameron 10Mulligan 2Tiffoney 2Sylla 8F. Robert… 2F. RobertsonMcCowan 3Braybrooke 2Fraser 1Larkeche 10Murray 10Sylla 1Main 4Tiffoney 3F. Robertson 13-5-2 in 4 of 10 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 4-3-3 (3), 5-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 6O'Hara 4Mayo 3Lyons 2Armstrong 2Mayo 5Deas 4Wright 2Findlay 8Ndaba 1Ndaba 6Lyons 2Deas 1Armstrong 7Wright 1Watson 1Lyons 4Watkins 1Burroughs 1Watson 5Donnelly 4Polworth 4Kennedy 9Murray 1Vassell 9Cameron 1Watkins 6Watson 1Deas 14-4-2 in 6 of 10 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 4-3-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
5 October 2024Dundee FC2–3KilmarnockxG 0.62–2.72
18 May 2024Dundee FC1–1KilmarnockxG 1.69–1.11
2 March 2024Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–1.56
30 December 2023Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 0.69–0.53
23 September 2023Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.49–3.56

5 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 0, Kilmarnock won 1, and 4 were drawn. Goals 9–10 and xG 1.17–1.93 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray10833300.330.08
Cameron10852130.080.16
Tiffoney6543200.170.06
Larkeche10815200.090.08

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kennedy9783310.170.33
Watkins7625300.440.05
Vassell9675100.370.08
Armstrong9726020.070.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.