Digressive Celts

Matches › 2024/25

Kilmarnock 3–2 Dundee FC

Saturday 10 May 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 36 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 5,669

Kilmarnock Armstrong 31' (pen), Anderson 77', Deas 90+1'

Dundee FC Cameron 76', 90+5'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockDundee FC
Goals32
xG3.500.99
Non-penalty xG2.710.99
Expected Points2.720.19

Kilmarnock 88%Draw 8%Dundee FC 4%

Most likely score 3–1, 11%. Final score 3–2, 5%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%3%1%6%7%4%1%5%2%5%1%5%6%3%3%3%2%9%11%9%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTVassell on for Wales, 65'McKenzie on for Donnelly, 81'Polworth on for Watson and Watkins on for Anderson, 86'Adewumi on for Tiffoney, 57'F. Robertson on for Houlden, 74'Armstrong 31' (pen)Anderson 77'Deas 90+1'Cameron 76'Cameron 90+5'Kilmarnock 3.50Dundee FC 0.99012340153045607590HTVassell on for Wales, 65'McKenzie on for Donnelly, 81'Polworth on for Watson and Watkins on for Anderson, 86'Adewumi on for Tiffoney, 57'F. Robertson on for Houlden, 74'Armstrong 31' (pen)Anderson 77'Deas 90+1'Cameron 76'Cameron 90+5'3.500.99KilmarnockDundee FC

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockDundee FC

3.50 +2.17xG0.99 −0.14
2.71Non-penalty xG0.99
4.41 +3.20xG on target1.59 +0.23
16 +3Shots12 +1
7 +3.1Shots on target5 +1.3
6 +4.0Big chances0 −1.7
30 +8Touches in the opposition box23 +2
41% −3Possession59% +15
255 −54Passes390 +76
55% −10Pass accuracy65% −1
42% −2Field tilt58% +16
36 +4Final-third entries31 0
12 +2Box entries8 −2
11.9 −3Passes per defensive action22.9 +8
7 +1.5Corners2 −2.9
24 +9Tackles11 −6
5 −4.0Interceptions7 −0.6
59 +23Clearances36 0
3 +0.5Saves4 +0.5
14 +3.4Fouls7 −2.8
0 −1.2Offsides0 −1.4

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Anderson 7', 0.47 xGMcKenzie 89', 0.46 xGFindlay 56', 0.41 xGVassell 90+1', 0.22 xGPolworth 87', 0.16 xGNdaba 50', 0.11 xGAnderson 5', 0.10 xGDeas 5', 0.09 xGDonnelly 5', 0.07 xGAnderson 45+2', 0.07 xGMurray 39', 0.03 xGFindlay 53', 0.03 xGMurray 71', 0.03 xGAnderson 77', 0.27 xG, goalDeas 90+1', 0.20 xG, goal44%1.20 xGSix-yard box: 5 shots, 1.20 xG, 2 goals48%1.29 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 1.29 xG, 0 goals8%0.22 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.22 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGEdge of the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Dundee FC

Adewumi 59', 0.19 xGAdewumi 66', 0.17 xGMulligan 90+10', 0.13 xGLarkeche 9', 0.05 xGMurray 12', 0.04 xGCameron 44', 0.04 xGAdewumi 89', 0.04 xGLarkeche 6', 0.03 xGMurray 14', 0.03 xGLarkeche 41', 0.02 xGCameron 76', 0.15 xG, goalCameron 90+5', 0.08 xG, goal17%0.17 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.17 xG, 0 goals47%0.47 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.47 xG, 1 goal9%0.09 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals22%0.22 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.22 xG, 1 goal4%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.26 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.79 10 shots, 1 goal
0.49 3 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.14 1 shot, 1 goal
0.96 7 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.05 1 shot, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
32 min (31%) · Kilmarnock 1.79, Dundee FC 0.15 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
70 min (69%) · Kilmarnock 1.71, Dundee FC 0.83 xG

Line-ups

156173111222152419O'HaraMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayWalesAndersonGoalGoalYellow cardGoal86'81'65'86'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes314550218291023157CarsonAstleyShaughnessyDonnellyLarkecheMulliganPortalesCameronHouldenMurrayTiffoneyYellow cardGoalGoalYellow card74'57'Dundee FC 4-3-3Tony Docherty

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 65' Vassell for Wales
  • 81' McKenzie for Donnelly
  • 86' Polworth for Watson
  • 86' Watkins for Anderson

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 57' Adewumi for Tiffoney · 1 assist
  • 74' F. Robertson for Houlden

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0100.0762
MayoRB900.000.0100.04317
DeasCB9010.290.0100.05619
FindlayCB900.440.0100.06510
NdabaLB900.110.3130.12810
ArmstrongRM90110.790.2630.02210
WatsonCM860.000.0100.0334
Donnelly CM8110.070.4310.1724
MurrayLM900.060.5230.2694
WalesST650.000.0110.0454
AndersonST8610.910.010−0.0401
VassellFW250.220.3320.1021
McKenzieMF90.460.0000.0014
PolworthMF40.160.000−0.0101
WatkinsFW40.000.0000.0001

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
CarsonGK900.000.0200.0740
AstleyRB9010.000.0610.0224
ShaughnessyCB900.000.0000.03410
DonnellyCB900.000.0110.04614
Larkeche LB900.110.0200.06103
MulliganCM900.130.010−0.0111
PortalesCM900.000.0510.10311
CameronCM9020.270.2130.0544
Houlden RW740.000.000−0.0103
MurrayST900.070.0310.0222
TiffoneyLW570.000.0000.0111
AdewumiMF3310.410.0710.3011
F. RobertsonMF160.000.0100.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Deas: 3 passesMayo and Donnelly: 3 passesDeas and Findlay: 3 passesDeas and Anderson: 3 passesNdaba and Wales: 3 passesArmstrong and Watson: 3 passesArmstrong and Donnelly: 3 passesWatson and Anderson: 3 passesWatson and Wales: 3 passesDeas and Armstrong: 4 passesDeas and Donnelly: 4 passesFindlay and Murray: 4 passesArmstrong and Murray: 4 passesAnderson and Wales: 4 passesO'Hara and Ndaba: 5 passesMayo and Armstrong: 5 passesNdaba and Murray: 5 passesMayo and Watson: 6 passesMayo and Wales: 6 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 8 passesO'Hara: 7 completed passesMayo: 17 completed passesDeas: 14 completed passesFindlay: 11 completed passesNdaba: 14 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesDonnelly: 10 completed passesMurray: 7 completed passesAnderson: 8 completed passesWales: 7 completed passes156173111222151924O'HaraMayoDeasFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonDonnellyMurrayAndersonWalesStarters until 65' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Dundee FC

Astley and Shaughnessy: 3 passesDonnelly and Mulligan: 3 passesLarkeche and Murray: 3 passesAstley and Cameron: 4 passesAstley and Houlden: 4 passesDonnelly and Portales: 4 passesCameron and Houlden: 4 passesCameron and Murray: 4 passesCameron and Tiffoney: 4 passesLarkeche and Portales: 5 passesLarkeche and Tiffoney: 5 passesCameron and Portales: 5 passesAstley and Mulligan: 6 passesLarkeche and Mulligan: 6 passesShaughnessy and Donnelly: 7 passesCameron and Mulligan: 7 passesLarkeche and Cameron: 8 passesMulligan and Portales: 9 passesDonnelly and Larkeche: 10 passesDonnelly and Cameron: 12 passesCarson and Donnelly: 14 passesCarson: 12 completed passesAstley: 14 completed passesShaughnessy: 8 completed passesDonnelly: 29 completed passesLarkeche: 22 completed passesCameron: 23 completed passesMulligan: 15 completed passesPortales: 19 completed passesHoulden: 8 completed passesMurray: 5 completed passesTiffoney: 2 completed passes314550211082923157CarsonAstleyShaughnessyDonnellyLarkecheCameronMulliganPortalesHouldenMurrayTiffoneyStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MurrayNdaba5
MayoWales5
WalesAnderson4
FindlayNdaba4
NdabaFindlay4

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
CameronDonnelly14
DonnellyCarson13
AstleyCameron10
PortalesCameron9
LarkecheCameron8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

3−1.717+9.218+1.85−2.55+0.121+14.814+6.710+3.27+0.69+2.49+3.84−0.32−1.53−1.45+0.35+1.86+2.31−1.23−0.76+1.85+2.92+0.32+1.22+0.54+1.50−0.72+1.60−0.70−0.51+0.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Dundee FC

8+2.914+6.712−5.37−1.16+1.99+2.34−2.98−0.311+3.21−4.84−0.33−0.79+3.86+1.21−2.83−0.71−1.01−1.66+2.01−1.51−0.30−0.81−0.54+1.50−1.00−0.40−0.50−0.30−0.72−5.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 35 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.030.010.040.030.010.020.020.030.020.060.010.030.010.030.020.010.050.090.060.11−0.020.050.20LessMore

Dundee FC

0.040.010.020.030.010.010.010.010.020.010.010.010.040.020.01−0.010.020.080.050.060.06−0.050.010.020.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.25 → 1.30Dundee FC1.08 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35 → 1.32Dundee FC1.73 → 1.78

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th<1%–0
Dundee FC
11th28%35%+7
Bottom1%1%0
Ross County
11th65%58%−7
Bottom7%7%0

From the forecast before the match (10 May 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockDundee FC
Expected goals1.880.98
Win58%19%
Expected Points1.970.79
Clean sheet38%15%

Kilmarnock 58%Draw 23%Dundee FC 19%

Most likely score 1–1, 11%. Both sides score 53%.

Dundee FC goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+6%5%3%5%2%5%2%6%6%3%1%3%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 May 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawDundee FC win
Kilmarnock
11th<1%––1%
Dundee FC
11th28%35%23%11%
Bottom1%1%<1%–
Ross County
11th65%58%71%81%
Bottom7%7%6%8%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–03 MaySt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.39–1.43
  2. W2–026 AprRoss County (H)xG 1.28–0.27
  3. L1–512 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.29–1.81
  4. W2–05 AprMotherwell (H)xG 1.22–0.18
  5. L1–529 MarSt. Mirren (A)xG 1.29–1.74
  6. D1–115 MarHibernian (H)xG 0.64–2.01

Dundee FC

  1. L1–23 MayMotherwell (H)xG 0.78–3.15
  2. W1–026 AprHearts (A)xG 0.71–1.46
  3. L0–413 AprHibernian (A)xG 0.14–2.00
  4. W2–05 AprSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.65–2.35
  5. L3–429 MarRangers (H)xG 2.97–2.70
  6. W4–216 MarDundee United (A)xG 2.27–1.20

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockDundee FC
Position9th10th
Played3535
Won, drawn, lost11–⁠8–⁠1610–⁠7–⁠18
Points41 (1.17 per game)37 (1.06 per game)
Expected Points per game1.311.00
Goals42–⁠5852–⁠73
xG per game1.33–⁠1.431.13–⁠1.90
Home: points, xG per game1.71, 1.70–⁠1.121.06, 1.29–⁠1.84
Away: points, xG per game0.67, 0.99–⁠1.731.06, 0.96–⁠1.96
ManagerDerek McInnes (111)Tony Docherty (73)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.35AttackKilmarnock1.25, 6thDundee FC1.08, 10thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.35, 6thDundee FC1.73, 12th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock attack: 1.25Dundee FC attack: 1.081.251.08Dundee FCKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayKilmarnock defence: 1.35Dundee FC defence: 1.731.731.35

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockDundee FC
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−15%+2%−25%+25%
Counter-attacks−52%−15%−25%+125%
Set pieces+18%+14%−19%+37%
Penalties+42%−19%+22%+2%
Headers−2%−13%−7%+37%
Left sideaverage−1%−17%+25%
Centre−14%+7%−26%+41%
Right side−8%+1%−23%+43%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft sideaverage+43%Centre−14%+41%Right side−8%+25%Open play−15%+25%Counter-attacks−52%+125%Set pieces+18%+37%Headers−2%+37%

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−17%+1%Centre−26%+7%Right side−23%−1%Open play−25%+2%Counter-attacks−25%−15%Set pieces−19%+14%Headers−7%−13%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockDundee FC

1.33xG1.13
1.43xG against1.90
44%Possession44%
12.6Shots10.7
12.5Shots against16.5
3.9Shots on target3.7
2.0Big chances1.7
22.1Touches in the opposition box21.1
309Passes314
65%Pass accuracy66%
5.5Corners4.9
44%Field tilt42%
31.6Final-third entries30.5
10.2Box entries10.0
14.7Passes per defensive action14.6

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.361.46
Ahead201.511.19
Behind311.191.55

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level371.081.87
Ahead251.131.92
Behind281.201.92

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.246–7
16–300.220.215–9
31–450.140.253–9
46–600.180.239–9
61–750.260.218–10
76–900.330.2911–14

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.170.229–7
16–300.190.2710–11
31–450.220.2812–12
46–600.140.335–13
61–750.160.288–12
76–900.260.538–18

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMcCrorie 20O'Hara 15Mayo 11Lyons 11Armstrong 4Wright 19Mayo 18Deas 15Findlay 13Ndaba 17Deas 6Lyons 5Armstrong 19Murray 3Wright 3Polworth 13Donnelly 11Murray 3Watson 15Lyons 10Ndaba 4Murray 12Kennedy 11Wales 5Watkins 21Wales 7Murray 3Vassell 19Anderson 10Watson 24-4-2 in 18 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (18), 3-4-1-2 (5), 4-3-3 (3), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

Dundee FC

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWCarson 19McCracken 16Mulligan 14McGhee 9Ingram 9C. Robertson 18Portales 11Shaughnessy 7Koumetio 13Donnelly 9McGhee 4Larkeche 22F. Robertson 5Ingram 3Mulligan 10Tiffoney 5Portales 5Sylla 30McGhee 6Cameron 25F. Robertson 8Garza 5Astley 11Adewumi 7Houlden 5Murray 21Houlden 7Main 4Murray 11Tiffoney 9Adewumi 74-3-3 in 11 of 35 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 3-4-2-1 (7), 3-5-2 (7), 3-4-3 (3), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-1-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
30 November 2024Kilmarnock1–1Dundee FCxG 1.28–0.75
3 November 2024Dundee FC3–2KilmarnockxG 1.58–1.04
5 October 2024Dundee FC2–3KilmarnockxG 0.62–2.72
18 May 2024Dundee FC1–1KilmarnockxG 1.69–1.11
2 March 2024Dundee FC2–2KilmarnockxG 1.53–1.56
30 December 2023Kilmarnock2–2Dundee FCxG 0.69–0.53

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Dundee FC won 1, and 5 were drawn. Goals 13–13 and xG 1.71–1.17 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson131,2971010.670.05
Kennedy131,129410.160.32
Vassell191,438210.320.09
Watkins221,953410.360.04

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Murray332,8521620.370.08
Houlden151,485510.350.03
Tiffoney191,670510.170.09
Cameron292,490540.090.16

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.