Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Dundee FC 2–1 Kilmarnock

Tuesday 30 December 2025, 19:45 · Dens Park · Round 20 · Half-time 0–1 · Referee Nick Walsh · Attendance 5,039

Dundee FC Hay 57', Reilly 72'

Kilmarnock Kiltie 38'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Goals21
xG2.231.27
Expected Points2.000.77

Dundee FC 59%Draw 23%Kilmarnock 18%

Most likely score 2–1, 12%. Final score 2–1, 12%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+2%3%2%5%6%2%6%2%5%6%2%2%5%3%2%1%10%12%9%9%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTAcquah on for Reilly, 74'Samuels on for Yogane, 89'Digby on for Dhanda, 90+5'Thomson on for Lowery, 46'Brannan on for Kiltie, 66'Polworth on for Watson and Deas on for Anderson, 73'Watkins on for Brown, 79'Hay 57'Reilly 72'Kiltie 38'Dundee FC 2.23Kilmarnock 1.2701230153045607590HTAcquah on for Reilly, 74'Samuels on for Yogane, 89'Digby on for Dhanda, 90+5'Thomson on for Lowery, 46'Brannan on for Kiltie, 66'Polworth on for Watson and Deas on for Anderson, 73'Watkins on for Brown, 79'Hay 57'Reilly 72'Kiltie 38'2.231.27Dundee FCKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

Dundee FCKilmarnock

2.23 +1.55xG1.27 +0.09
2.66 +1.94xG on target1.61 +0.52
26 +18.1Shots8 −2.8
6 +3.3Shots on target4 +0.3
3 +2.2Big chances1 −0.7
34 +22Touches in the opposition box20 0
57% +19Possession43% +4
463 +139Passes353 +39
82% +8Pass accuracy73% +3
63% +33Field tilt37% −1
56 +28Final-third entries27 −3
10 +4.9Box entries8 −1.4
12.7 −10Passes per defensive action14.0 −2
7 +4.1Corners5 +0.7
10 −4Tackles14 −2
8 −0.5Interceptions1 −7.9
31 −3Clearances43 +8
3 −1.0Saves4 +0.8
12 +2.8Fouls17 +4.2
1 −0.4Offsides0 −1.8

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Dundee FC

Jones 8', 0.32 xGReilly 13', 0.20 xGAcquah 76', 0.20 xGKoumetio 51', 0.16 xGDhanda 16', 0.14 xGKoumetio 16', 0.10 xGAstley 62', 0.10 xGKoumetio 15', 0.05 xGHamilton 16', 0.05 xGJones 22', 0.05 xGReilly 36', 0.05 xGKoumetio 40', 0.05 xGDhanda 28', 0.04 xGDhanda 59', 0.04 xGYogane 66', 0.04 xGHamilton 6', 0.03 xGReilly 51', 0.03 xGDhanda 55', 0.03 xGHay 72', 0.03 xGJones 5', 0.02 xGKoumetio 27', 0.02 xGDhanda 50', 0.02 xGGraham 84', 0.02 xGHamilton 55', 0.01 xGHay 57', 0.34 xG, goalReilly 72', 0.11 xG, goal23%0.50 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.50 xG, 1 goal58%1.28 xGCentral box: 11 shots, 1.28 xG, 1 goal7%0.15 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals8%0.18 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals5%0.11 xGFurther out: 5 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Anderson 11', 0.46 xGWatkins 90+2', 0.20 xGJohn-Jules 11', 0.12 xGMayo 71', 0.07 xGJohn-Jules 17', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 71', 0.02 xGBrannan 90+1', 0.01 xGKiltie 38', 0.35 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals94%1.19 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.19 xG, 1 goal5%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

Dundee FCKilmarnock

1.49 15 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.84 5 shots, 0 goals
0.04 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.70 10 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.42 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
53 min (56%) · Dundee FC 1.38, Kilmarnock 1.06 xG
Dundee FC ahead
23 min (24%) · Dundee FC 0.22, Kilmarnock 0.21 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
19 min (20%) · Dundee FC 0.64, Kilmarnock 0.00 xG

Line-ups

142257481821281711McCrackenAstleyGrahamKoumetioWrightHamiltonReillyDhandaJonesYoganeHayGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoal74'90+5'89'Dundee FC 4-1-4-1Steven Pressley2015525381112182419OluwayemiBrownMayoSchilte-BrownThompsonLyonsKiltieWatsonLoweryJohn-JulesAndersonYellow cardYellow cardGoal79'66'73'46'73'Kilmarnock 4-1-4-1Kris Doolan

Dundee FC substitutes

  • 74' Acquah for Reilly
  • 89' Samuels for Yogane
  • 90+5' Digby for Dhanda

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Thomson for Lowery · yellow card 53'
  • 66' Brannan for Kiltie · yellow card 69'
  • 73' Deas for Anderson
  • 73' Polworth for Watson
  • 79' Watkins for Brown

Players

Dundee FC

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
McCrackenGK900.000.0000.0220
AstleyRB900.100.1510.2089
GrahamCB900.020.0100.09811
KoumetioCB900.380.0000.09511
WrightLB900.000.0520.0999
HamiltonDM900.090.0200.07114
Reilly RM74110.390.3010.2030
Dhanda CM900.260.3480.15111
JonesCM900.390.020−0.0212
YoganeLM890.040.2030.35141
HayST9010.360.7840.0002
AcquahFW160.200.0000.0000
SamuelsDF10.000.0200.0322
DigbyMF00.000.000––0

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0000.0450
BrownRB790.000.0100.0245
MayoCB900.070.0000.03117
Schilte-BrownCB900.000.0000.04614
Thompson LB900.000.1420.1066
Lyons DM900.000.0110.0446
KiltieRM6610.350.0200.0332
WatsonCM730.000.0200.0424
LoweryCM460.000.1620.0431
John-JulesLM900.190.0200.1425
AndersonST730.460.011−0.0203
Thomson MF440.000.0200.0434
Brannan DF240.010.000−0.0100
DeasDF170.000.0000.0010
PolworthMF170.000.0100.0020
WatkinsFW110.200.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Dundee FC

Koumetio and Dhanda: 7 passesGraham and Jones: 7 passesWright and Hamilton: 7 passesAstley and Reilly: 8 passesHamilton and Jones: 8 passesDhanda and Yogane: 8 passesDhanda and Hay: 8 passesAstley and Hamilton: 9 passesWright and Jones: 9 passesJones and Yogane: 9 passesWright and Dhanda: 11 passesMcCracken and Graham: 12 passesGraham and Wright: 12 passesGraham and Hamilton: 12 passesGraham and Dhanda: 12 passesKoumetio and Hamilton: 13 passesDhanda and Jones: 14 passesHamilton and Dhanda: 15 passesKoumetio and Yogane: 16 passesMcCracken and Koumetio: 17 passesAstley and Dhanda: 18 passesWright and Yogane: 20 passesKoumetio and Graham: 22 passesKoumetio and Wright: 22 passesAstley and Graham: 23 passesMcCracken: 22 completed passesAstley: 40 completed passesKoumetio: 52 completed passesGraham: 51 completed passesWright: 51 completed passesHamilton: 37 completed passesReilly: 12 completed passesDhanda: 45 completed passesJones: 28 completed passesYogane: 27 completed passesHay: 13 completed passes145227481821281711McCrackenAstleyKoumetioGrahamWrightHamiltonReillyDhandaJonesYoganeHayStarters until 74' · lines join pairs with 7+ passes

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Anderson: 3 passesMayo and Lowery: 3 passesLyons and John-Jules: 3 passesJohn-Jules and Anderson: 3 passesOluwayemi and Mayo: 4 passesOluwayemi and John-Jules: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 4 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesThompson and John-Jules: 4 passesWatson and Lyons: 4 passesOluwayemi and Schilte-Brown: 5 passesBrown and Watson: 5 passesSchilte-Brown and Mayo: 5 passesThompson and Watson: 5 passesLowery and Anderson: 5 passesBrown and Mayo: 6 passesBrown and Lyons: 6 passesMayo and Watson: 6 passesLowery and Lyons: 6 passesSchilte-Brown and Thompson: 7 passesThompson and Lowery: 9 passesLowery and John-Jules: 10 passesSchilte-Brown and Lowery: 11 passesOluwayemi: 11 completed passesBrown: 13 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 20 completed passesMayo: 14 completed passesThompson: 17 completed passesKiltie: 6 completed passesLowery: 25 completed passesWatson: 12 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesJohn-Jules: 9 completed passesAnderson: 8 completed passes2015255311181282419OluwayemiBrownSchilte-BrownMayoThompsonKiltieLoweryWatsonLyonsJohn-JulesAndersonStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Dundee FC

FromToPasses
AstleyGraham13
WrightYogane13
WrightKoumetio12
KoumetioGraham12
YoganeWright11

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoSchilte-Brown9
Schilte-BrownOluwayemi8
MayoOluwayemi7
BrownMayo6
ThompsonSchilte-Brown6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Dundee FC

2−3.09+1.514−4.22−2.76+2.08+1.011+2.64−3.77+0.112+7.53−1.31−1.83−1.65+0.12−1.82−0.72+0.65+2.86+3.01−0.93+1.42+1.11−0.13+1.00−0.60−0.31+0.40−0.21+0.82−6.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Kilmarnock

3−3.02−6.926+9.29+2.56+1.77−0.58+1.26−1.213+5.24−1.611+5.60−5.31−2.68+3.08+3.03−1.06+2.00−2.60−2.85+1.43+0.43+1.00−1.64+2.22+0.40−1.00−0.62+1.00−0.44+3.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 19 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Dundee FC

0.010.020.050.030.030.020.030.070.040.020.020.040.080.070.040.050.03−0.01−0.010.010.040.01−0.11−0.020.290.45LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.030.020.030.010.010.030.030.03−0.010.040.030.020.020.040.040.020.060.05LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee FC0.96 → 1.00Kilmarnock1.10 → 1.09Defence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.69 → 1.65Kilmarnock1.54 → 1.56

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Dundee FC
Top six<1%1%+1
11th35%29%−6
Bottom21%12%−9
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%0
11th29%36%+7
Bottom18%25%+7
Livingston
11th24%24%0
Bottom59%60%+1

From the forecast before the match (30 December 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Expected goals1.311.26
Win37%35%
Expected Points1.401.32
Clean sheet28%27%

Dundee FC 37%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 53%.

Kilmarnock goalsDundee FC goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 30 December 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowDundee FC winDrawKilmarnock win
Dundee FC
Top six<1%1%<1%<1%
11th35%29%37%41%
Bottom21%12%20%30%
Kilmarnock
Top six<1%<1%<1%1%
11th29%36%31%21%
Bottom18%25%19%10%
Livingston
11th24%24%22%25%
Bottom59%60%59%58%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Dundee FC

  1. W1–027 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.24–1.33
  2. L0–120 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.23–1.23
  3. D2–213 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.46–0.89
  4. L1–36 DecAberdeen (H)xG 1.12–1.38
  5. L0–13 DecCeltic (A)xG 0.21–2.08
  6. W3–129 NovSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.68–1.39

Kilmarnock

  1. D0–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.75–1.36
  2. L0–120 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.19–1.46
  3. L1–214 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.02–3.76
  4. L0–36 DecRangers (H)xG 0.66–0.75
  5. D1–13 DecHearts (A)xG 1.80–2.19
  6. D1–129 NovDundee United (H)xG 2.11–1.86

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Dundee FCKilmarnock
Position10th11th
Played1919
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠4–⁠112–⁠7–⁠10
Points16 (0.84 per game)13 (0.68 per game)
Expected Points per game0.721.01
Goals16–⁠3217–⁠33
xG per game0.68–⁠1.651.18–⁠1.81
Home: points, xG per game1.44, 0.95–⁠1.530.60, 1.33–⁠1.51
Away: points, xG per game0.30, 0.43–⁠1.760.78, 1.01–⁠2.15
ManagerSteven Pressley (19)Kris Doolan (2)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.33AttackDundee FC0.96, 12thKilmarnock1.10, 9thDefence (lower is better)Dundee FC1.69, 11thKilmarnock1.54, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee FC attack: 0.96Kilmarnock attack: 1.101.100.96KilmarnockDundee FCDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecDundee FC defence: 1.69Kilmarnock defence: 1.541.691.54

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Dundee FCKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−57%+28%−31%+18%
Counter-attacks−67%−27%+34%+14%
Set pieces−38%+27%+18%+30%
Penalties−37%−5%−68%+121%
Headers−35%+26%−3%+20%
Left side−55%+20%−49%+24%
Centre−54%+17%+12%+32%
Right side−48%+31%−15%−4%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Dundee FC attacking

Dundee FC createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−55%−4%Centre−54%+32%Right side−48%+24%Open play−57%+18%Counter-attacks−67%+14%Set pieces−38%+30%Headers−35%+20%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdDundee FC concededLeft side−49%+31%Centre+12%+17%Right side−15%+20%Open play−31%+28%Counter-attacks+34%−27%Set pieces+18%+27%Headers−3%+26%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

Dundee FCKilmarnock

0.68xG1.18
1.65xG against1.81
38%Possession39%
7.9Shots10.8
16.3Shots against14.1
2.7Shots on target3.7
0.8Big chances1.7
11.7Touches in the opposition box19.7
324Passes314
74%Pass accuracy70%
2.9Corners4.3
30%Field tilt38%
27.6Final-third entries30.1
5.1Box entries9.4
22.7Passes per defensive action16.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Dundee FC

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level380.851.57
Ahead180.671.97
Behind340.491.57

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.211.58
Ahead151.082.69
Behind341.181.70

xG by period

Dundee FC

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.201–4
16–300.060.234–7
31–450.170.285–6
46–600.080.263–3
61–750.120.261–3
76–900.140.422–9

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.060.250–3
16–300.180.254–7
31–450.340.256–3
46–600.160.313–7
61–750.130.341–6
76–900.300.413–7

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Dundee FC

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBRWSTLWMcCracken 19Astley 16Wright 1C. Robertson 14Graham 17Koumetio 6Samuels 3Wright 11Congreve 7Ingram 1Digby 8Robertson 7Dhanda 3Hamilton 13Jones 4Westley 3Samuels 9Yogane 6Dhanda 2Congreve 6Dhanda 3Westley 3Murray 10Hay 4Westley 3Wright 4Westley 4Yogane 33-4-3 in 7 of 19 starts

Formations: 3-4-3 (7), 4-5-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-4-2 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 9Stryjek 7Beach 3Brown 12Brandon 4Brannan 3Stanger 11Schilte-B… 5Schilte-BrownLyons 1Mayo 16Kiltie 1Watson 1Deas 17Williams 3Thompson 16Brannan 3Watson 16McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 11Thomson 1Polworth 11Kiltie 6Lowery 6Dackers 10John-Jules 4Tiffoney 4Anderson 11Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 4 of 19 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 3-4-3 (3), 4-1-4-1 (2), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
23 August 2025Kilmarnock0–0Dundee FCxG 1.11–0.26
10 May 2025Kilmarnock3–2Dundee FCxG 3.50–0.99
30 November 2024Kilmarnock1–1Dundee FCxG 1.28–0.75
3 November 2024Dundee FC3–2KilmarnockxG 1.58–1.04
5 October 2024Dundee FC2–3KilmarnockxG 0.62–2.72
18 May 2024Dundee FC1–1KilmarnockxG 1.69–1.11

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Dundee FC won 1, Kilmarnock won 2, and 6 were drawn. Goals 15–16 and xG 1.05–1.84 per game.

Key players

Dundee FC

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Congreve141,227160.070.33
Westley13851200.190.14
Dhanda11905200.160.11
Murray131,050100.210.01

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers111,032100.300.11
Anderson131,116310.360.05
Tiffoney5501110.210.10
Kiltie11962020.070.22

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.