Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 2–3 Celtic

Sunday 15 February 2026, 14:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 27 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Duncan Nicolson · Attendance 8,090

Kilmarnock John-Jules 21', Hugill 28'

Celtic Tounekti 56', Nygren 64', Araujo 90+7'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockCeltic
Goals23
xG0.862.98
Expected Points0.262.62

Kilmarnock 5%Draw 11%Celtic 84%

Most likely score 0–3, 11%. Final score 2–3, 4%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%8%4%2%5%7%3%2%2%4%4%3%1%1%1%10%11%10%11%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

012340153045607590HTTshibola on for Curtis, 63'Polworth on for Watson, Thomson on for Kiltie, and Anderson on for Hugill, 79'Dackers on for John-Jules, 82'Cvancara on for Adamu, Tounekti on for Yang, and Oxlade-Chamberlain on for Hatate, 46'Forrest on for Maeda, 62'Saracchi on for Tierney, 78'John-Jules 21'Hugill 28'Tounekti 56'Nygren 64'Araujo 90+7'Celtic 2.98Kilmarnock 0.86012340153045607590HTTshibola on for Curtis, 63'Polworth on for Watson, Thomson on for Kiltie, and Anderson on for Hugill, 79'Dackers on for John-Jules, 82'Cvancara on for Adamu, Tounekti on for Yang, and Oxlade-Chamberlain on for Hatate, 46'Forrest on for Maeda, 62'Saracchi on for Tierney, 78'John-Jules 21'Hugill 28'Tounekti 56'Nygren 64'Araujo 90+7'2.980.86KilmarnockCeltic

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockCeltic

0.86 −0.41xG2.98 +0.79
1.30 +0.10xG on target4.82 +2.75
17 +6Shots25 +8
6 +2.2Shots on target10 +4.4
1 −1.0Big chances4 +0.3
22 +2Touches in the opposition box50 +14
39% −1Possession61% −7
303 −20Passes475 −161
69% −2Pass accuracy86% −1
30% −9Field tilt70% −7
30 −1Final-third entries67 0
8 −1.7Box entries25 +4.0
14.9 −1Passes per defensive action13.9 +4
6 +1.6Corners7 +0.2
16 0Tackles12 −2
10 +1.7Interceptions11 +4.2
29 −6Clearances27 +1
7 +3.3Saves4 +1.8
7 −6Fouls8 −4
2 +0.2Offsides0 −1.6

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Curtis 13', 0.14 xGDeas 72', 0.08 xGHugill 14', 0.07 xGJohn-Jules 51', 0.07 xGCurtis 5', 0.06 xGCurtis 45+1', 0.06 xGJohn-Jules 75', 0.06 xGSchilte-Brown 15', 0.04 xGLyons 35', 0.04 xGKiltie 49', 0.04 xGJohn-Jules 14', 0.03 xGJohn-Jules 75', 0.03 xGCurtis 58', 0.02 xGSchilte-Brown 66', 0.01 xGTshibola 67', 0.01 xGHugill 28', 0.09 xG, goalJohn-Jules 21', 0.02 xG, goal28%0.24 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.24 xG, 1 goal41%0.35 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.35 xG, 0 goals8%0.07 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.07 xG, 1 goal22%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Celtic

Cvancara 46', 0.32 xGMaeda 27', 0.29 xGMaeda 37', 0.19 xGYang 30', 0.14 xGAdamu 27', 0.11 xGScales 45', 0.10 xGTounekti 61', 0.08 xGOxlade-Chamberlain 90+5', 0.07 xGNygren 8', 0.06 xGHatate 27', 0.06 xGOxlade-Chamberlain 61', 0.06 xGNygren 39', 0.05 xGNygren 59', 0.05 xGForrest 76', 0.05 xGMcGregor 85', 0.05 xGOxlade-Chamberlain 85', 0.05 xGMaeda 20', 0.04 xGTounekti 53', 0.04 xGAdamu 42', 0.03 xGTounekti 83', 0.03 xGAdamu 9', 0.02 xGOxlade-Chamberlain 53', 0.02 xGNygren 64', 0.84 xG, goalAraujo 90+7', 0.19 xG, goalTounekti 56', 0.02 xG, goal43%1.28 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 1.28 xG, 1 goal44%1.30 xGCentral box: 13 shots, 1.30 xG, 1 goal2%0.06 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals11%0.34 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.34 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockCeltic

0.39 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play1.47 19 shots, 1 goal
0.14 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.32 1 shot, 0 goals
0.34 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces1.18 5 shots, 2 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
54 min (55%) · Kilmarnock 0.55, Celtic 0.56 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
44 min (44%) · Kilmarnock 0.31, Celtic 2.41 xG
Celtic ahead
1 min (1%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Celtic 0.00 xG

Line-ups

1321256352812112444RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonCurtisLyonsWatsonKiltieJohn-JulesHugillYellow cardGoalGoal63'79'79'82'79'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Neil McCann12265638424113938SchmeichelAraujoTrustyScalesTierneyNygrenMcGregorHatateYangAdamuMaedaGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card78'46'46'46'62'Celtic 4-3-3Martin O'Neill

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 63' Tshibola for Curtis
  • 79' Thomson for Kiltie
  • 79' Polworth for Watson
  • 79' Anderson for Hugill
  • 82' Dackers for John-Jules

Celtic substitutes

  • 46' Oxlade-Chamberlain for Hatate
  • 46' Tounekti for Yang · goal 56'
  • 46' Cvancara for Adamu · yellow card 69'
  • 62' Forrest for Maeda
  • 78' Saracchi for Tierney

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
RoosGK900.000.0000.0451
Schjønning-LarsenRB900.000.0100.0339
Schilte-BrownCB900.050.0000.01110
DeasCB900.080.0310.1074
ThompsonLB900.000.2520.04712
CurtisRM630.270.0200.0926
LyonsCM900.040.0210.0126
Watson CM790.000.0820.1855
KiltieLM790.040.0610.0931
John-JulesST82110.220.2710.2552
HugillST79110.160.0420.0411
TshibolaMF270.010.0100.0012
ThomsonMF110.000.0100.0002
PolworthMF110.000.0100.0110
AndersonFW110.000.0000.0000
DackersFW80.000.000−0.0101

Celtic

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SchmeichelGK900.000.0000.0210
Araujo RB9010.190.3240.3297
TrustyCB900.000.0000.05611
ScalesCB900.100.0000.0659
TierneyLB7810.000.3650.41117
NygrenCM9011.000.1120.1255
McGregor CM900.050.0300.0126
HatateCM460.060.041−0.1111
YangRW460.140.2600.2661
AdamuST460.160.162−0.0102
MaedaLW620.530.0400.10101
Oxlade-ChamberlainMF440.200.2910.1020
TounektiFW4410.170.0200.22152
Cvancara FW440.320.011−0.0100
ForrestFW280.050.0920.1961
SaracchiDF120.000.0100.0310

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Schjønning-Larsen and John-Jules: 3 passesThompson and John-Jules: 3 passesCurtis and Watson: 3 passesCurtis and Kiltie: 3 passesWatson and Lyons: 3 passesWatson and Kiltie: 3 passesLyons and Kiltie: 3 passesLyons and John-Jules: 3 passesJohn-Jules and Hugill: 3 passesRoos and Schjønning-Larsen: 4 passesDeas and John-Jules: 4 passesThompson and Curtis: 4 passesThompson and Kiltie: 4 passesSchilte-Brown and Curtis: 5 passesRoos and Deas: 6 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Schilte-Brown: 6 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lyons: 6 passesCurtis and Lyons: 6 passesKiltie and John-Jules: 6 passesRoos and Schilte-Brown: 7 passesSchilte-Brown and Lyons: 7 passesThompson and Watson: 7 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Curtis: 8 passesSchilte-Brown and Deas: 8 passesDeas and Thompson: 9 passesRoos: 15 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 17 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 20 completed passesDeas: 17 completed passesThompson: 21 completed passesCurtis: 13 completed passesWatson: 10 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesKiltie: 14 completed passesJohn-Jules: 9 completed passesHugill: 6 completed passes1321256352128112444RoosSchjønning-LarsenSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonCurtisWatsonLyonsKiltieJohn-JulesHugillStarters until 63' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Celtic

Schmeichel and Tierney: 4 passesAraujo and Scales: 4 passesAraujo and McGregor: 4 passesTrusty and Hatate: 4 passesHatate and Yang: 4 passesHatate and Maeda: 4 passesNygren and Yang: 4 passesAraujo and Adamu: 5 passesHatate and Nygren: 5 passesHatate and McGregor: 5 passesSchmeichel and Araujo: 6 passesAraujo and Nygren: 6 passesScales and Hatate: 6 passesScales and Maeda: 6 passesYang and Adamu: 6 passesAdamu and Maeda: 6 passesSchmeichel and Trusty: 10 passesTierney and McGregor: 12 passesAraujo and Yang: 13 passesAraujo and Trusty: 14 passesTierney and Hatate: 14 passesScales and Tierney: 19 passesSchmeichel and Scales: 20 passesTierney and Maeda: 27 passesSchmeichel: 25 completed passesAraujo: 30 completed passesScales: 34 completed passesTrusty: 23 completed passesTierney: 43 completed passesHatate: 22 completed passesNygren: 10 completed passesMcGregor: 19 completed passesYang: 17 completed passesAdamu: 12 completed passesMaeda: 20 completed passes12256634184213938SchmeichelAraujoScalesTrustyTierneyHatateNygrenMcGregorYangAdamuMaedaStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ThompsonDeas11
RoosDeas6
Schilte-BrownSchjønning-Larsen6
ThompsonJohn-Jules6
RoosDackers6

Celtic

FromToPasses
TierneyMaeda19
McGregorTierney15
ScalesSchmeichel15
AraujoNygren11
SchmeichelScales11

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

6+0.814+5.222+4.98+0.92−2.49+1.76−1.05−2.07−0.96+0.22−3.26+1.01−2.68+3.04−0.82−1.73−0.62−0.73−0.14+0.11−1.50−2.03+1.50−1.94+2.00−0.90−0.81+0.10−0.42+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

Celtic

2−0.87+2.613+1.24−1.25+1.04−1.410+4.93−2.36−2.24−0.47+3.26+3.05−0.75−0.56+1.58+4.61−2.21−2.34−0.40−2.31−1.23+1.20−3.230.01+0.20−0.41+0.40−0.310.03−4.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.020.010.010.010.040.010.020.010.010.020.04−0.010.030.070.070.020.070.050.080.06−0.020.20LessMore

Celtic

0.010.010.010.010.030.030.040.050.090.030.060.060.110.010.040.180.120.15−0.030.120.120.09−0.120.040.280.21LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackKilmarnock1.13 → 1.12Celtic2.02 → 2.06Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.59 → 1.63Celtic0.90 → 0.90

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
11th53%57%+4
Bottom5%6%+1
Celtic
Title44%50%+6
Rangers
Title24%22%−2
Hearts
Title31%29%−2

From the forecast before the match (15 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockCeltic
Expected goals0.922.15
Win14%65%
Expected Points0.642.16
Clean sheet12%40%

Kilmarnock 14%Draw 20%Celtic 65%

Most likely score 0–2, 11%. Both sides score 54%.

Celtic goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%4%2%4%7%4%2%2%4%5%3%2%1%1%1%10%11%8%10%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 15 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawCeltic win
Kilmarnock
11th53%39%50%57%
Bottom5%2%5%6%
Celtic
Title44%28%38%50%
Rangers
Title24%32%27%22%
Hearts
Title31%39%35%29%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. W4–311 FebSt. Mirren (H)xG 2.76–1.96
  2. L1–54 FebRangers (A)xG 1.39–3.14
  3. W3–031 JanAberdeen (H)xG 2.55–1.01
  4. L0–424 JanMotherwell (A)xG 0.46–2.72
  5. D1–110 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.69–1.30
  6. L1–33 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.44–2.78

Celtic

  1. W2–111 FebLivingston (H)xG 3.44–1.06
  2. W2–01 FebFalkirk (H)xG 0.66–1.07
  3. D2–225 JanHearts (A)xG 1.35–1.66
  4. W1–014 JanFalkirk (A)xG 0.62–1.72
  5. W4–010 JanDundee United (H)xG 3.18–0.34
  6. L1–33 JanRangers (H)xG 2.34–1.44

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockCeltic
Position11th3rd
Played2625
Won, drawn, lost4–⁠8–⁠1416–⁠3–⁠6
Points20 (0.77 per game)51 (2.04 per game)
Expected Points per game1.021.99
Goals28–⁠5145–⁠24
xG per game1.27–⁠1.912.19–⁠0.99
Home: points, xG per game0.92, 1.47–⁠1.602.38, 2.71–⁠0.69
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 1.07–⁠2.211.67, 1.63–⁠1.31
ManagerNeil McCann (4)Martin O'Neill (5)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackKilmarnock1.13, 9thCeltic2.02, 1stDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.59, 11thCeltic0.90, 1st

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.13Celtic attack: 2.022.021.13CelticKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.02.5SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.59Celtic defence: 0.901.590.90

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockCeltic
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−16%+34%+107%−39%
Counter-attacks+22%−2%−16%−45%
Set pieces+11%+20%−17%−15%
Penalties−74%+138%+10%+10%
Headersaverage+11%+64%−36%
Left side−51%+26%+72%−46%
Centre+20%+33%+79%−23%
Right side−11%+13%+6%−45%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdCeltic concededLeft side−51%−45%Centre+20%−23%Right side−11%−46%Open play−16%−39%Counter-attacks+22%−45%Set pieces+11%−15%Headersaverage−36%

Celtic attacking

Celtic createdKilmarnock concededLeft side+72%+13%Centre+79%+33%Right side+6%+26%Open play+107%+34%Counter-attacks−16%−2%Set pieces−17%+20%Headers+64%+11%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockCeltic

1.27xG2.19
1.91xG against0.99
40%Possession68%
10.9Shots16.8
15.1Shots against8.6
3.8Shots on target5.6
2.0Big chances3.7
19.8Touches in the opposition box36.0
323Passes636
71%Pass accuracy87%
4.4Corners6.8
39%Field tilt77%
31.4Final-third entries67.1
9.7Box entries21.0
15.8Passes per defensive action10.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level381.291.75
Ahead161.332.55
Behind371.211.80

Celtic

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level432.350.83
Ahead351.921.16
Behind132.441.04

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.110.282–6
16–300.170.254–8
31–450.320.289–5
46–600.130.325–11
61–750.200.332–9
76–900.340.456–12

Celtic

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.430.148–4
16–300.350.127–1
31–450.380.207–3
46–600.280.284–10
61–750.320.118–4
76–900.450.1511–2

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 12Stryjek 7Roos 4Brown 13Schjønnin… 4Schjønning-LarsenBrannan 4Schilte… 12Schilte-BrownStanger 11Lyons 2Mayo 19Kiltie 5Polworth 1Deas 23Williams 3Thomps… 22ThompsonBrannan 3Curtis 1Watson 21McKenzie 3Anderson 2Lyons 17Thomson 2Polworth 16Lowery 8Kiltie 7Anderson 17Dackers 11Tiffoney 4John-Jules 11Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 6 of 26 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (6), 4-3-1-2 (4), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-1-2-1-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

Celtic

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWSchmeichel 24Sinisalo 1Ralston 7Yang 6Araujo 5Trusty 14Carter-Vickers 7Murray 3Scales 21Tierney 4Tierney 12Saracchi 8McCowan 3Engels 17McCowan 5Ralston 1McGregor 24Nygren 13Hatate 12Bernardo 3Yang 6Nygren 4Tounekti 3Kenny 8Maeda 7Cvancara 3Maeda 11Tounekti 8Yang 34-3-3 in 18 of 25 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (18), 3-4-2-1 (4), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
9 November 2025Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 2.85–0.38
14 September 2025Kilmarnock1–2CelticxG 1.66–2.83
12 April 2025Celtic5–1KilmarnockxG 1.81–0.29
10 November 2024Kilmarnock0–2CelticxG 2.22–2.12
4 August 2024Celtic4–0KilmarnockxG 3.11–0.20
15 May 2024Kilmarnock0–5CelticxG 0.75–4.60

15 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Celtic won 12, and 2 were drawn. Goals 8–45 and xG 1.08–2.49 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
John-Jules111,069710.440.05
Dackers121,136200.330.10
Kiltie161,332330.170.21
Anderson191,582420.340.04

Celtic

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Kenny8688420.890.07
Nygren171,5561230.490.26
Maeda211,830750.510.17
Forrest2529100.260.36

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.