Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Hibernian 2–0 St. Mirren

Saturday 14 February 2026, 15:00 · Easter Road Stadium · Round 27 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Dan McFarlane · Attendance 18,012

Hibernian Elding 42', Suto 66'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

HibernianSt. Mirren
Goals20
xG1.190.30
Expected Points2.120.56

Hibernian 60%Draw 32%St. Mirren 8%

Most likely score 1–0, 28%. Final score 2–0, 17%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+6%10%1%17%5%6%2%1%21%28%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTBoyle on for Elding and Suto on for Scarlett, 64'Andrews on for Chaiwa, 77'Campbell on for McGrath, 89'Idowu on for Devaney and Mandron on for Young, 46'Calvin on for Nlundulu and O'Hara on for Fraser, 58'Richardson on for McMenamin, 71'Elding 42'Suto 66'Hibernian 1.19St. Mirren 0.3000.511.50153045607590HTBoyle on for Elding and Suto on for Scarlett, 64'Andrews on for Chaiwa, 77'Campbell on for McGrath, 89'Idowu on for Devaney and Mandron on for Young, 46'Calvin on for Nlundulu and O'Hara on for Fraser, 58'Richardson on for McMenamin, 71'Elding 42'Suto 66'1.190.30HibernianSt. Mirren

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.19 −0.50xG0.30 −0.92
1.59 +0.05xG on target0.41 −0.58
13 0Shots7 −6
6 +1.0Shots on target2 −1.7
2 −0.4Big chances0 −1.8
25 0Touches in the opposition box13 −13
58% +10Possession42% −3
517 +119Passes362 +14
85% +6Pass accuracy74% 0
64% +16Field tilt36% −11
50 +14Final-third entries43 +5
14 +3Box entries7 −5
17.5 +1Passes per defensive action14.1 −2
6 +0.7Corners8 +2.1
10 −3Tackles17 +3
11 +2.7Interceptions4 −2.6
43 +14Clearances28 −2
2 −0.8Saves4 +0.9
10 −1Fouls16 +3
0 −1.7Offsides3 +0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Hibernian

Elding 15', 0.28 xGPasslack 50', 0.14 xGChaiwa 17', 0.09 xGScarlett 11', 0.06 xGScarlett 63', 0.05 xGScarlett 46', 0.04 xGMcGrath 63', 0.04 xGElding 17', 0.03 xGScarlett 20', 0.03 xGCadden 34', 0.03 xGMcGrath 26', 0.02 xGSuto 66', 0.29 xG, goalElding 42', 0.08 xG, goal36%0.43 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.43 xG, 1 goal43%0.51 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.51 xG, 1 goal6%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals11%0.13 xGEdge of the box: 2 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals5%0.06 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.06 xG, 0 goals

St. Mirren

Mandron 55', 0.11 xGIdowu 86', 0.09 xGNlundulu 27', 0.03 xGMcMenamin 7', 0.02 xGYoung 25', 0.02 xGKing 70', 0.02 xGMcMenamin 45', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGCentral box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.05 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.05 xG, 0 goals77%0.23 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals7%0.02 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

HibernianSt. Mirren

0.80 10 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.18 4 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.09 1 shot, 0 goals
0.39 3 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.04 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
42 min (47%) · Hibernian 0.63, St. Mirren 0.07 xG
Hibernian ahead
48 min (53%) · Hibernian 0.57, St. Mirren 0.23 xG

Line-ups

15331525221419174744SallingerO'HoraBushiriIredalePasslackBarlaserChaiwaCaddenMcGrathEldingScarlettGoal77'89'64'64'Hibernian 3-4-1-2David Gray1225211088813242014GeorgeFraserKingFreckletonMcMenaminPhillipsDevaneyGogicJohnYoungNlunduluYellow cardYellow card58'71'46'46'58'St. Mirren 3-5-2Stephen Robinson

Hibernian substitutes

  • 64' Suto for Scarlett · goal 66'
  • 64' Boyle for Elding
  • 77' Andrews for Chaiwa
  • 89' Campbell for McGrath

St. Mirren substitutes

  • 46' Mandron for Young · yellow card 79'
  • 46' Idowu for Devaney
  • 58' Calvin for Nlundulu
  • 58' O'Hara for Fraser
  • 71' Richardson for McMenamin

Players

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
SallingerGK900.000.0000.0312
O'HoraCB900.000.1600.26911
BushiriCB900.000.0100.03320
IredaleCB900.000.5030.41145
PasslackRWB900.140.020−0.0436
BarlaserCM9010.000.1810.33135
ChaiwaCM770.090.0100.0364
CaddenLWB900.030.1410.34122
McGrathAM890.060.1120.0484
EldingST6410.390.000−0.0401
ScarlettST640.190.000−0.1103
SutoFW2610.290.000−0.0201
BoyleFW260.000.0400.0820
AndrewsMF130.000.0000.0014
CampbellMF10.000.0000.0110

St. Mirren

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0882
FraserCB580.000.0000.0235
King CB900.020.0910.2095
FreckletonCB900.000.0200.02216
McMenamin RWB710.030.0000.0233
PhillipsCM900.000.0210.0251
DevaneyCM460.000.0000.0012
GogicCM900.000.0100.0649
JohnLWB900.000.0200.0122
YoungST460.020.0100.0210
NlunduluST580.030.001−0.0111
Mandron FW440.110.0200.0132
IdowuFW440.090.3900.2870
CalvinDF320.000.000−0.0100
O'HaraMF320.000.0000.0001
RichardsonMF190.000.0000.0122

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Hibernian

Sallinger and Iredale: 5 passesIredale and Scarlett: 5 passesPasslack and McGrath: 5 passesChaiwa and Elding: 5 passesMcGrath and Elding: 5 passesBushiri and Chaiwa: 6 passesSallinger and Bushiri: 7 passesPasslack and Elding: 7 passesBarlaser and Elding: 8 passesPasslack and Chaiwa: 9 passesIredale and McGrath: 11 passesO'Hora and Chaiwa: 11 passesPasslack and Barlaser: 11 passesBarlaser and Chaiwa: 11 passesIredale and Barlaser: 12 passesO'Hora and Passlack: 13 passesBarlaser and McGrath: 15 passesCadden and McGrath: 16 passesBarlaser and Cadden: 17 passesBushiri and Barlaser: 19 passesO'Hora and Barlaser: 19 passesIredale and Bushiri: 22 passesBushiri and O'Hora: 26 passesIredale and Cadden: 36 passesSallinger: 17 completed passesIredale: 49 completed passesBushiri: 45 completed passesO'Hora: 51 completed passesPasslack: 26 completed passesBarlaser: 62 completed passesChaiwa: 21 completed passesCadden: 37 completed passesMcGrath: 33 completed passesScarlett: 5 completed passesElding: 11 completed passes11533525221419174447SallingerIredaleBushiriO'HoraPasslackBarlaserChaiwaCaddenMcGrathScarlettEldingStarters until 64' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

St. Mirren

George and John: 3 passesGeorge and Phillips: 3 passesFreckleton and John: 3 passesMcMenamin and Phillips: 3 passesJohn and Gogic: 3 passesGeorge and Freckleton: 4 passesFraser and McMenamin: 4 passesGeorge and Fraser: 5 passesGeorge and Nlundulu: 5 passesJohn and Phillips: 5 passesGeorge and King: 8 passesKing and Freckleton: 11 passesKing and Fraser: 14 passesGeorge: 15 completed passesKing: 23 completed passesFreckleton: 12 completed passesFraser: 14 completed passesMcMenamin: 3 completed passesJohn: 7 completed passesGogic: 6 completed passesPhillips: 9 completed passesDevaney: 5 completed passesNlundulu: 4 completed passesYoung: 2 completed passes1521221024138881420GeorgeKingFreckletonFraserMcMenaminJohnGogicPhillipsDevaneyNlunduluYoungStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Hibernian

FromToPasses
IredaleCadden29
BushiriIredale17
CaddenIredale16
BarlaserMcGrath16
O'HoraBushiri15

St. Mirren

FromToPasses
FreckletonKing10
KingGeorge9
GogicKing9
KingFraser8
FreckletonIdowu8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Hibernian

6+2.64−2.220+5.88+0.57+3.010+4.614+6.85−2.57+0.93−2.810+4.83−1.830.05+0.82−2.42−1.84+0.62−0.42−0.43−1.02−0.54+2.20−1.50−1.00−2.10−0.70−0.81+0.40−0.52+1.2FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 26 matches

St. Mirren

9+4.511+3.616−0.43−4.04−0.98+2.27+0.13−3.66−1.317+11.03−1.63−1.24+1.24+0.43−1.12−2.04+0.90−2.87+4.44+0.83+0.44+2.11−0.70−1.93+0.20−1.00−0.60−1.01+0.82+1.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 25 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Hibernian

0.010.010.020.020.040.040.030.020.070.020.040.020.040.040.070.020.050.03−0.020.04−0.030.15−0.100.130.190.180.24LessMore

St. Mirren

0.020.010.020.020.100.010.010.070.010.010.020.050.01−0.010.05−0.010.030.010.020.01−0.020.130.15LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackHibernian1.47 → 1.49St. Mirren1.16 → 1.14Defence (lower is better)Hibernian1.15 → 1.13St. Mirren1.36 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Hibernian
Top six>99%>99%0
St. Mirren
11th9%12%+3
Kilmarnock
11th55%53%−2
Bottom4%5%+1

From the forecast before the match (14 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

HibernianSt. Mirren
Expected goals1.790.90
Win58%18%
Expected Points1.980.78
Clean sheet41%17%

Hibernian 58%Draw 24%St. Mirren 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

St. Mirren goalsHibernian goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%5%1%4%1%7%6%3%3%3%1%1%12%11%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 14 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowHibernian winDrawSt. Mirren win
Hibernian
Top six>99%>99%99%99%
St. Mirren
11th9%12%8%3%
Kilmarnock
11th55%53%55%58%
Bottom4%5%3%4%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Hibernian

  1. L0–110 FebHearts (A)xG 0.38–0.66
  2. W3–24 FebDundee United (H)xG 2.57–1.73
  3. D0–01 FebRangers (H)xG 1.88–0.58
  4. L1–424 JanFalkirk (A)xG 0.73–3.64
  5. D1–110 JanMotherwell (H)xG 1.31–1.03
  6. W3–13 JanKilmarnock (A)xG 2.78–0.44

St. Mirren

  1. L3–411 FebKilmarnock (A)xG 1.96–2.76
  2. W1–03 FebHearts (H)xG 2.31–0.23
  3. D0–031 JanDundee FC (H)xG 1.04–0.78
  4. D1–120 JanLivingston (A)xG 1.41–1.47
  5. L0–214 JanHearts (A)xG 0.98–2.18
  6. L0–210 JanFalkirk (H)xG 0.54–0.52

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

HibernianSt. Mirren
Position5th9th
Played2625
Won, drawn, lost10–⁠9–⁠75–⁠8–⁠12
Points39 (1.50 per game)23 (0.92 per game)
Expected Points per game1.741.27
Goals41–⁠3121–⁠35
xG per game1.69–⁠1.191.22–⁠1.37
Home: points, xG per game1.77, 2.07–⁠0.981.31, 1.20–⁠0.95
Away: points, xG per game1.23, 1.31–⁠1.410.50, 1.25–⁠1.82
ManagerDavid Gray (66)Stephen Robinson (96)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.32AttackHibernian1.47, 4thSt. Mirren1.16, 7thDefence (lower is better)Hibernian1.15, 5thSt. Mirren1.36, 7th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian attack: 1.47St. Mirren attack: 1.161.471.16St. MirrenHibernianDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebHibernian defence: 1.15St. Mirren defence: 1.361.361.15

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

HibernianSt. Mirren
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−9%−2%−22%+1%
Counter-attacks+105%−19%−32%+65%
Set pieces+26%−34%+21%−18%
Penalties+82%−48%−46%−73%
Headers+18%−29%+18%+10%
Left side+15%+11%−12%+2%
Centre+15%−19%−12%+9%
Right side+6%−23%−9%−11%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdSt. Mirren concededLeft side+15%−11%Centre+15%+9%Right side+6%+2%Open play−9%+1%Counter-attacks+105%+65%Set pieces+26%−18%Headers+18%+10%

St. Mirren attacking

St. Mirren createdHibernian concededLeft side−12%−23%Centre−12%−19%Right side−9%+11%Open play−22%−2%Counter-attacks−32%−19%Set pieces+21%−34%Headers+18%−29%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

HibernianSt. Mirren

1.69xG1.22
1.19xG against1.37
48%Possession45%
13.3Shots12.6
11.5Shots against12.7
5.0Shots on target3.7
2.4Big chances1.8
24.9Touches in the opposition box25.6
398Passes348
79%Pass accuracy73%
5.3Corners5.9
48%Field tilt48%
36.0Final-third entries38.4
11.3Box entries11.8
16.6Passes per defensive action15.7

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.461.16
Ahead281.861.17
Behind181.981.32

St. Mirren

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level601.231.33
Ahead130.831.62
Behind171.491.31

xG by period

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.220.094–2
16–300.220.237–6
31–450.280.268–7
46–600.380.139–4
61–750.260.123–4
76–900.330.3610–8

St. Mirren

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.180.131–0
16–300.180.194–3
31–450.170.302–8
46–600.190.183–6
61–750.180.284–5
76–900.310.297–13

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Hibernian

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTSallinger 22Smith 4Bushiri 16O'Hora 15Garananga 2Hanley 19Iredale 23Obita 2Cadden 13Megwa 7Mulligan 4Mulligan 16Andrews 1Newell 1Barlaser 17Chaiwa 7McGrath 6Cadden 13Obita 9McGrath 4McGrath 8Boyle 6Barlaser 4Boyle 13Klidje 7Scarlett 2Bowie 19Youan 5Hoilett 33-4-1-2 in 13 of 26 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (13), 3-4-3 (4), 3-1-4-2 (4), 5-3-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 5-4-1 (1)

St. Mirren

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTGeorge 25Fraser 23King 16Gogic 12Freckleton 24Richards… 17RichardsonMcMenamin 7Sobowale 1Phillips 25Baccus 11McMena… 4McMenaminTaylor 4Gogic 10O'Hara 8Idowu 5John 23Tanser 2Mandron 21Nlundulu 10Idowu 6Ayunga 11Young 13-5-2 in 19 of 25 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (19), 5-3-2 (3), 3-4-3 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 November 2025St. Mirren0–3HibernianxG 0.78–1.62
31 August 2025Hibernian1–1St. MirrenxG 2.42–0.85
14 May 2025St. Mirren2–2HibernianxG 0.70–1.34
16 February 2025St. Mirren0–0HibernianxG 0.70–0.37
9 November 2024Hibernian1–2St. MirrenxG 2.28–2.18
4 August 2024St. Mirren3–0HibernianxG 1.20–1.58

20 league meetings since 2020/21: Hibernian won 8, St. Mirren won 6, and 6 were drawn. Goals 27–23 and xG 1.30–1.07 per game.

Key players

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Youan6661410.630.18
Klidje7735310.660.04
Boyle191,502500.450.09
Campbell2474130.300.23

St. Mirren

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
McMenamin111,035110.230.28
Mandron211,794430.260.12
Ayunga11953200.340.03
Nlundulu111,119200.280.06

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.