Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 2–2 Hibernian

Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 23 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Grant Irvine · Attendance 6,501

Kilmarnock Vente 25' (og), Kennedy 54' · Ndaba sent off 73'

Hibernian Newell 66', Maolida 81'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockHibernian
Goals22
xG1.691.58
Expected Points1.461.27

Kilmarnock 39%Draw 27%Hibernian 33%

Most likely score 1–1, 12%. Final score 2–2, 10%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+2%4%4%2%6%5%1%5%4%1%3%5%5%2%2%1%12%9%11%10%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTNdaba (Kilmarnock), red card 73'Deas on for Armstrong, 74'Donnelly on for McKenzie, 86'Murray on for Kennedy and Polworth on for Vassell, 90+1'Maolida on for Vente, Doidge on for Youan, and Whittaker on for Megwa, 57'McKirdy on for Tavares, 74'Amos on for Levitt, 82'Vente 25' (og)Kennedy 54'Newell 66'Maolida 81'Kilmarnock 1.69Hibernian 1.5800.511.520153045607590HTNdaba (Kilmarnock), red card 73'Deas on for Armstrong, 74'Donnelly on for McKenzie, 86'Murray on for Kennedy and Polworth on for Vassell, 90+1'Maolida on for Vente, Doidge on for Youan, and Whittaker on for Megwa, 57'McKirdy on for Tavares, 74'Amos on for Levitt, 82'Vente 25' (og)Kennedy 54'Newell 66'Maolida 81'1.691.58KilmarnockHibernian

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockHibernian

1.69 +0.46xG1.58 +0.50
0.70 −0.53xG on target1.50 +0.41
12 −2Shots15 +4
1 −2.7Shots on target5 +1.5
2 +0.2Big chances2 +0.3
14 −9Touches in the opposition box25 +4
36% −11Possession64% +12
256 −81Passes470 +49
65% +1Pass accuracy77% 0
45% −5Field tilt55% +9
25 −9Final-third entries47 +12
7 −5Box entries11 0
11.9 −2Passes per defensive action16.5 +1
7 +0.5Corners3 −1.6
16 +3Tackles13 −1
8 +1.1Interceptions3 −4.9
25 +5Clearances25 +2
3 +0.1Saves1 −2.1
15 +2.8Fouls11 +1.5
2 +0.9Offsides1 −0.7

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watson 77', 0.38 xGKennedy 28', 0.18 xGKennedy 30', 0.17 xGVassell 61', 0.10 xGFindlay 35', 0.08 xGDeas 77', 0.08 xGWright 61', 0.05 xGMcKenzie 35', 0.04 xGWatson 1', 0.03 xGDonnelly 90+4', 0.02 xGWright 61', 0.01 xGKennedy 54', 0.54 xG, goal59%0.99 xGSix-yard box: 3 shots, 0.99 xG, 1 goal36%0.60 xGCentral box: 6 shots, 0.60 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals6%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Hibernian

Doidge 87', 0.38 xGMarcondes 68', 0.24 xGMarcondes 45+2', 0.18 xGTavares 58', 0.12 xGNewell 45+2', 0.10 xGObita 43', 0.08 xGLevitt 45+2', 0.06 xGYouan 51', 0.06 xGMaolida 90+6', 0.06 xGYouan 23', 0.04 xGWhittaker 71', 0.04 xGLevitt 59', 0.03 xGVente 7', 0.02 xGMaolida 81', 0.15 xG, goalNewell 66', 0.03 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals83%1.31 xGCentral box: 8 shots, 1.31 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals17%0.27 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.27 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockHibernian

0.79 4 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.50 13 shots, 2 goals
0.91 8 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.09 2 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
40 min (41%) · Kilmarnock 0.05, Hibernian 0.50 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
58 min (59%) · Kilmarnock 1.64, Hibernian 1.08 xG

Line-ups

20451731112710923O'HaraWrightMayoFindlayNdabaArmstrongWatsonMcKenzieKennedyVassellWatkinsYellow cardSent offGoalYellow card74'86'90+1'90+1'Kilmarnock 4-4-2Derek McInnes1425421116720299MarshallMegwaFishHanlonObitaNewellLevittYouanMarcondesTavaresVenteGoalYellow cardOwn goal57'82'57'74'57'Hibernian 4-2-3-1Nick Montgomery

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 74' Deas for Armstrong
  • 86' Donnelly for McKenzie
  • 90+1' Murray for Kennedy
  • 90+1' Polworth for Vassell

Hibernian substitutes

  • 57' Whittaker for Megwa
  • 57' Doidge for Youan
  • 57' Maolida for Vente · goal 81'
  • 74' McKirdy for Tavares
  • 82' Amos for Levitt

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
O'HaraGK900.000.0000.0443
Wright RB900.070.5310.0635
MayoCB900.000.0000.0218
FindlayCB900.080.0000.0478
Ndaba LB730.000.0000.0014
ArmstrongRM7410.000.2230.3482
WatsonCM900.410.000−0.0219
McKenzieCM860.040.010−0.0312
Kennedy LM9010.890.1020.0355
VassellST900.100.2620.1212
WatkinsST900.000.0200.0341
DeasDF160.080.0000.1322
DonnellyMF40.020.000−0.0101
MurrayMF00.000.0000.0000
PolworthMF00.000.0110.0000

Hibernian

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
MarshallGK900.000.0000.0640
MegwaRB570.000.010−0.0117
FishCB900.000.0000.04212
HanlonCB900.000.2210.32118
ObitaLB900.080.0200.0407
NewellDM9010.130.0310.0841
LevittDM8210.090.0220.1073
YouanRW570.090.0200.0725
Marcondes AM900.420.091−0.0350
TavaresLW740.120.0210.0010
VenteST570.020.1310.1720
WhittakerMF330.040.0210.0111
DoidgeFW330.380.001−0.0200
MaolidaFW3310.220.0820.1840
McKirdyFW160.000.0000.0001
AmosMF80.000.0000.0100

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

O'Hara and Vassell: 3 passesWright and Vassell: 3 passesMayo and McKenzie: 3 passesWatson and McKenzie: 3 passesMcKenzie and Watkins: 3 passesWatkins and Vassell: 3 passesWright and Armstrong: 4 passesWright and Watkins: 4 passesWatson and Vassell: 4 passesKennedy and Watkins: 4 passesO'Hara and Findlay: 5 passesFindlay and Kennedy: 5 passesArmstrong and McKenzie: 5 passesArmstrong and Watkins: 5 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 5 passesWright and Watson: 6 passesArmstrong and Kennedy: 6 passesWright and Mayo: 7 passesFindlay and Mayo: 7 passesFindlay and Ndaba: 7 passesMcKenzie and Kennedy: 7 passesNdaba and McKenzie: 9 passesNdaba and Kennedy: 10 passesArmstrong and Watson: 10 passesO'Hara: 8 completed passesWright: 20 completed passesFindlay: 17 completed passesMayo: 14 completed passesNdaba: 19 completed passesArmstrong: 15 completed passesWatson: 14 completed passesMcKenzie: 17 completed passesKennedy: 14 completed passesWatkins: 11 completed passesVassell: 10 completed passes20417531112710239O'HaraWrightFindlayMayoNdabaArmstrongWatsonMcKenzieKennedyWatkinsVassellStarters until 73' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Hibernian

Megwa and Newell: 5 passesFish and Newell: 5 passesHanlon and Tavares: 5 passesNewell and Youan: 5 passesNewell and Vente: 5 passesLevitt and Vente: 5 passesTavares and Vente: 5 passesMegwa and Youan: 6 passesHanlon and Newell: 6 passesNewell and Marcondes: 6 passesLevitt and Marcondes: 6 passesFish and Levitt: 7 passesMarshall and Fish: 8 passesHanlon and Obita: 8 passesObita and Levitt: 8 passesNewell and Levitt: 8 passesYouan and Marcondes: 8 passesObita and Newell: 11 passesMegwa and Levitt: 12 passesFish and Hanlon: 12 passesHanlon and Levitt: 13 passesMarshall and Hanlon: 16 passesMegwa and Fish: 17 passesMarshall: 14 completed passesMegwa: 26 completed passesFish: 30 completed passesHanlon: 43 completed passesObita: 20 completed passesNewell: 26 completed passesLevitt: 37 completed passesYouan: 15 completed passesMarcondes: 14 completed passesTavares: 9 completed passesVente: 11 completed passes1425421116720299MarshallMegwaFishHanlonObitaNewellLevittYouanMarcondesTavaresVenteStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 5+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaKennedy6
WatsonArmstrong6
NdabaFindlay5
WrightWatson5
NdabaMcKenzie5

Hibernian

FromToPasses
HanlonMarshall16
FishHanlon14
LevittHanlon11
MegwaFish10
HanlonLevitt9

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

4−0.610+2.810−2.16−1.55+0.69+2.18+0.54−1.95−0.87+0.43−3.03−2.24+0.31−3.01−4.57+1.68+4.44+1.26+2.84−0.52−1.13+1.02+1.21−0.78+5.94+3.31+0.70−1.00−0.21+0.6FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 22 matches

Hibernian

4−1.74−3.318+1.48+3.610+2.84−2.48+3.011+3.910+4.04−0.15+2.24−1.66+0.63−0.11−0.95+2.12−0.50−1.91−0.20−0.90−1.44+2.02+1.40−0.30−0.30−0.40−0.74−3.64−3.82−4.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.040.010.010.030.010.010.03−0.010.010.060.010.030.02−0.010.060.030.05−0.010.030.11−0.010.22LessMore

Hibernian

0.010.040.010.010.010.010.060.010.030.030.030.010.050.050.030.050.030.060.020.050.030.020.060.010.030.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackKilmarnock1.16 → 1.17Hibernian1.11 → 1.12Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.25Hibernian1.38 → 1.38

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six90%89%−1
Hibernian
Top six42%42%0
11th4%3%−1
Bottom1%1%0
St. Mirren
Top six55%56%+1
11th2%2%0

From the forecast before the match (27 January 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockHibernian
Expected goals1.480.98
Win48%24%
Expected Points1.721.01
Clean sheet37%23%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 27%Hibernian 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Hibernian goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%6%2%9%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%12%13%9%

From the forecast as it stood on 27 January 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawHibernian win
Kilmarnock
Top six90%96%89%80%
Hibernian
Top six42%33%42%62%
11th4%5%3%2%
Bottom1%1%1%<1%
St. Mirren
Top six55%57%56%50%
11th2%1%2%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–32 JanRangers (A)xG 1.55–2.27
  2. D2–230 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.69–0.53
  3. W1–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.81–0.46
  4. W2–123 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.37–1.37
  5. D0–016 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.88–1.14
  6. W2–110 DecCeltic (H)xG 2.06–1.68

Hibernian

  1. L0–324 JanRangers (H)xG 0.93–2.09
  2. D2–22 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.72–1.55
  3. L0–127 DecHearts (H)xG 1.85–1.30
  4. L0–116 DecSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.10–0.94
  5. W1–09 DecLivingston (A)xG 0.22–1.34
  6. L1–46 DecCeltic (A)xG 1.50–4.10

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockHibernian
Position4th6th
Played2221
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠7–⁠76–⁠7–⁠8
Points31 (1.41 per game)25 (1.19 per game)
Expected Points per game1.401.07
Goals24–⁠2326–⁠32
xG per game1.23–⁠1.131.08–⁠1.50
Home: points, xG per game1.91, 1.25–⁠0.921.18, 1.30–⁠1.42
Away: points, xG per game0.91, 1.20–⁠1.351.20, 0.83–⁠1.57
ManagerDerek McInnes (60)Nick Montgomery (17)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.28AttackKilmarnock1.16, 5thHibernian1.11, 6thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.24, 3rdHibernian1.38, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock attack: 1.16Hibernian attack: 1.111.161.11HibernianKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanKilmarnock defence: 1.24Hibernian defence: 1.381.381.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockHibernian
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−17%−25%−17%+17%
Counter-attacks−9%+7%−55%−23%
Set pieces+17%+4%−5%−4%
Penalties−25%−25%−48%+30%
Headers+32%−18%−19%−15%
Left side−3%−28%−14%+3%
Centre−15%−15%−19%+1%
Right side+4%average−14%+32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdHibernian concededLeft side−3%+32%Centre−15%+1%Right side+4%+3%Open play−17%+17%Counter-attacks−9%−23%Set pieces+17%−4%Headers+32%−15%

Hibernian attacking

Hibernian createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−14%averageCentre−19%−15%Right side−14%−28%Open play−17%−25%Counter-attacks−55%+7%Set pieces−5%+4%Headers−19%−18%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockHibernian

1.23xG1.08
1.13xG against1.50
47%Possession52%
13.5Shots10.5
12.0Shots against14.9
3.7Shots on target3.5
1.8Big chances1.7
22.9Touches in the opposition box21.4
337Passes421
64%Pass accuracy77%
6.5Corners4.6
50%Field tilt45%
33.9Final-third entries35.3
12.0Box entries11.0
14.3Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.101.04
Ahead181.111.24
Behind251.561.24

Hibernian

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.051.34
Ahead240.981.63
Behind231.231.64

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.142–3
16–300.250.155–3
31–450.210.202–8
46–600.230.074–3
61–750.150.235–2
76–900.280.346–4

Hibernian

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.140.232–3
16–300.200.154–4
31–450.150.233–4
46–600.170.223–5
61–750.180.319–8
76–900.250.345–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 22Mayo 21Wright 12Deas 12Findlay 21Armstrong 21Mayo 1Lyons 20McKenzie 2Armstrong 1Watson 17Donnelly 6Deas 3Polworth 7Magennis 7Kennedy 1Kennedy 11Ndaba 9Deas 1Watkins 17Kennedy 4Vassell 17Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 22 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (3), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Hibernian

GKRBCBCBLBRMCMCMLMSTSTMarshall 20Wollacott 1Miller 13Whittaker 4Fish 1Fish 20Bushiri 12Hanlon 8Stevenson 1Obita 12Stevenson 8Levitt 1Youan 8Boyle 5Campbell 5Levitt 11Jeggo 11Doyle-Hayes 1Newell 19Tavares 11Youan 6Boyle 3Boyle 8Doidge 6Youan 1Vente 18Le Fondre 4Campbell 34-4-2 in 15 of 21 starts

Formations: 4-4-2 (15), 4-2-3-1 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-5-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
11 November 2023Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 0.41–0.46
16 September 2023Kilmarnock2–2HibernianxG 0.83–0.92
18 February 2023Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 2.94–0.82
12 November 2022Kilmarnock1–0HibernianxG 0.96–0.85
3 September 2022Hibernian1–0KilmarnockxG 1.44–0.39
16 January 2021Hibernian2–0KilmarnockxG 0.68–0.64

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Hibernian won 6, and 1 was a draw. Goals 4–11 and xG 0.72–1.24 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong221,903470.270.31
Vassell171,481500.320.05
Kennedy161,486130.150.19
Watson171,612320.100.11

Hibernian

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Doidge6610320.460.05
Le Fondre4506310.410.02
Youan151,504430.200.15
Boyle161,437230.160.15

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.