Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Kilmarnock 2–2 Livingston

Saturday 2 August 2025, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 1 · Half-time 2–0 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 5,291

Kilmarnock Daniels 37', Watson 42' · Stanger sent off 65'

Livingston Muirhead 66' (pen), Pittman 86'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockLivingston
Goals22
xG0.911.83
Non-penalty xG0.911.04
Expected Points0.642.10

Kilmarnock 13%Draw 26%Livingston 61%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 2–2, 7%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+3%6%2%3%7%2%1%6%7%3%1%1%11%12%16%16%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTStanger (Kilmarnock), red card 65'Anderson on for Daniels, 61'McKenzie on for Dackers, 68'Thompson on for Lowery, 85'Rudden on for Carey, 46'Smith on for Winter, 71'May on for Sylla, 77'Bokila on for Muirhead, 82'Daniels 37'Watson 42'Muirhead 66' (pen)Pittman 86'Livingston 1.83Kilmarnock 0.9100.511.520153045607590HTStanger (Kilmarnock), red card 65'Anderson on for Daniels, 61'McKenzie on for Dackers, 68'Thompson on for Lowery, 85'Rudden on for Carey, 46'Smith on for Winter, 71'May on for Sylla, 77'Bokila on for Muirhead, 82'Daniels 37'Watson 42'Muirhead 66' (pen)Pittman 86'1.830.91KilmarnockLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

0.91xG1.83
0.91Non-penalty xG1.04
1.63xG on target2.67
8Shots15
2Shots on target6
2Big chances2
14Touches in the opposition box26
36%Possession64%
264Passes479
66%Pass accuracy80%
34%Field tilt66%
29Final-third entries45
8Box entries12
18.4Passes per defensive action8.3
3Corners5
19Tackles20
4Interceptions7
52Clearances33
4Saves0
11Fouls14
3Offsides1

Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Polworth 28', 0.09 xGWatson 11', 0.07 xGWatson 83', 0.07 xGBrannan 23', 0.02 xGAnderson 76', 0.02 xGLowery 83', 0.01 xGWatson 42', 0.40 xG, goalDaniels 38', 0.22 xG, goal44%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 1 shot, 0.40 xG, 1 goal32%0.29 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.29 xG, 1 goal2%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals21%0.19 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.19 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Montgomery 53', 0.10 xGTait 41', 0.09 xGMay 78', 0.09 xGBokila 90+3', 0.09 xGMuirhead 74', 0.06 xGSmith 78', 0.06 xGSmith 78', 0.05 xGSmith 78', 0.05 xGRudden 90+3', 0.03 xGRudden 90+4', 0.03 xGFinlayson 10', 0.02 xGMontgomery 20', 0.02 xGFinlayson 75', 0.02 xGPittman 86', 0.34 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals89%0.93 xGCentral box: 10 shots, 0.93 xG, 1 goal2%0.02 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.02 xG, 0 goals9%0.09 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.62 5 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.77 8 shots, 1 goal
0.21 1 shot, 1 goalCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.07 2 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.28 6 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
45 min (48%) · Kilmarnock 0.41, Livingston 0.18 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
49 min (52%) · Kilmarnock 0.50, Livingston 1.65 xG

Line-ups

18145231182612929StryjekLyonsStangerMayoBrandonPolworthLoweryBrannanWatsonDackersDanielsYellow cardSent offGoalGoal85'68'61'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Stuart Kettlewell281952732524816910PriorFinlaysonMcGowanWilsonMontgomeryTaitSyllaPittmanWinterMuirheadCareyYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal77'71'82'46'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 61' Anderson for Daniels · yellow card 81'
  • 68' McKenzie for Dackers
  • 85' Thompson for Lowery

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Rudden for Carey
  • 71' Smith for Winter · 1 assist
  • 77' May for Sylla
  • 82' Bokila for Muirhead

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
StryjekGK900.000.0000.0462
Lyons CB900.000.0000.01212
Stanger CB650.000.0000.03412
MayoCB900.000.0100.05514
BrandonRWB900.000.0400.1367
PolworthCM9010.090.2020.1168
LoweryCM850.010.0100.0033
BrannanLWB900.020.0200.0459
WatsonAM9010.540.021−0.0643
DackersST680.000.1510.0455
DanielsST6110.220.1200.1532
Anderson FW290.020.0100.0001
McKenzieMF220.000.000−0.0100
ThompsonMF50.000.0000.0001

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0000.0233
Finlayson RB900.040.030−0.04104
McGowanCB900.000.0810.14615
WilsonCB900.000.0100.11813
Montgomery LB900.120.0510.0979
TaitCM900.090.2010.1865
SyllaCM770.000.0700.0746
PittmanCM9010.340.1310.1231
WinterRW710.000.031−0.0212
MuirheadST8210.840.130−0.0411
CareyLW460.000.0600.0942
RuddenFW440.060.000−0.0111
SmithFW1910.170.1820.1130
MayFW130.090.0100.0810
BokilaFW80.090.0000.0001

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Stryjek and Stanger: 4 passesStanger and Mayo: 4 passesMayo and Dackers: 4 passesLyons and Watson: 4 passesBrandon and Polworth: 4 passesBrandon and Watson: 4 passesBrannan and Watson: 4 passesStryjek and Dackers: 5 passesLyons and Brandon: 5 passesBrandon and Dackers: 5 passesLowery and Polworth: 5 passesStryjek and Lyons: 6 passesLyons and Lowery: 6 passesLyons and Polworth: 6 passesLowery and Daniels: 6 passesDaniels and Dackers: 6 passesMayo and Lowery: 7 passesStryjek: 11 completed passesStanger: 12 completed passesMayo: 15 completed passesLyons: 19 completed passesBrandon: 12 completed passesLowery: 19 completed passesPolworth: 18 completed passesBrannan: 9 completed passesWatson: 11 completed passesDaniels: 11 completed passesDackers: 11 completed passes11458218312612299StryjekStangerMayoLyonsBrandonLoweryPolworthBrannanWatsonDanielsDackersStarters until 61' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

Prior and Finlayson: 3 passesPrior and Montgomery: 3 passesPrior and Pittman: 3 passesMcGowan and Carey: 3 passesWilson and Pittman: 3 passesTait and Winter: 3 passesWilson and Sylla: 4 passesMontgomery and Tait: 4 passesPittman and Tait: 4 passesMontgomery and Sylla: 5 passesMcGowan and Sylla: 6 passesMcGowan and Tait: 6 passesPrior and Wilson: 7 passesFinlayson and Tait: 7 passesPittman and Carey: 8 passesPrior and McGowan: 11 passesMontgomery and Pittman: 11 passesFinlayson and Sylla: 13 passesFinlayson and McGowan: 16 passesMcGowan and Wilson: 17 passesWilson and Montgomery: 17 passesFinlayson and Winter: 18 passesMontgomery and Carey: 18 passesPrior: 14 completed passesFinlayson: 31 completed passesMcGowan: 37 completed passesWilson: 24 completed passesMontgomery: 32 completed passesSylla: 20 completed passesPittman: 20 completed passesTait: 16 completed passesWinter: 10 completed passesMuirhead: 1 completed passesCarey: 13 completed passes281952732482516910PriorFinlaysonMcGowanWilsonMontgomerySyllaPittmanTaitWinterMuirheadCareyStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
LoweryMayo7
StryjekDackers5
LyonsPolworth5
DackersWatson5
PolworthLowery5

Livingston

FromToPasses
McGowanWilson22
WilsonMontgomery18
McGowanFinlayson16
FinlaysonWinter16
FinlaysonMcGowan16

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1369686571175253553138111223LessMore

Livingston

24953710518598263755231111114LessMore

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.020.020.030.010.020.010.020.010.010.020.010.02−0.010.060.04−0.03−0.01−0.07−0.01−0.010.080.090.060.080.07LessMore

Livingston

0.020.010.010.010.010.030.010.030.020.020.030.020.040.080.020.010.020.060.080.080.020.12−0.010.07−0.210.050.010.26LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.38AttackKilmarnock1.25 → 1.24Livingston0.99 → 1.04Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.40 → 1.42Livingston1.66 → 1.62

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six46%40%−6
11th5%7%+2
Bottom2%3%+1
Livingston
Top six9%11%+2
11th26%26%0
Bottom26%25%−1
Falkirk
Top six10%10%0
11th17%16%−1
Bottom47%46%−1

From the forecast before the match (2 August 2025): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockLivingston
Expected goals1.790.91
Win58%18%
Expected Points1.970.79
Clean sheet40%17%

Kilmarnock 58%Draw 24%Livingston 18%

Most likely score 1–0, 12%. Both sides score 50%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%6%3%5%2%4%1%6%6%3%3%3%1%1%12%12%11%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 2 August 2025: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawLivingston win
Kilmarnock
Top six46%52%40%32%
11th5%4%7%8%
Bottom2%1%3%5%
Livingston
Top six9%6%11%18%
11th26%27%26%20%
Bottom26%30%25%17%
Falkirk
Top six10%10%10%11%
11th17%18%16%15%
Bottom47%46%46%51%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L0–118 MayHearts (H)xG 1.07–0.68
  2. L0–314 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.53–2.57
  3. W3–210 MayDundee FC (H)xG 3.50–0.99
  4. W2–03 MaySt. Johnstone (A)xG 1.39–1.43
  5. W2–026 AprRoss County (H)xG 1.28–0.27
  6. L1–512 AprCeltic (A)xG 0.29–1.81

Livingston

  1. D1–119 MayHibernian (H)xG 0.66–0.66
  2. L1–515 MayAberdeen (A)xG 1.65–1.77
  3. W2–111 MaySt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.30–2.62
  4. L1–44 MayMotherwell (A)xG 0.66–2.63
  5. W2–027 AprRoss County (H)xG 1.46–0.99
  6. L2–413 AprHearts (A)xG 0.97–3.81

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.38AttackKilmarnock1.25, 7thLivingston0.99, 11thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.40, 7thLivingston1.66, 10th

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
7 February 2024Kilmarnock1–0LivingstonxG 0.75–0.72
16 December 2023Livingston0–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
21 October 2023Kilmarnock3–1LivingstonxG 1.21–1.13
13 May 2023Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.75–0.32
4 February 2023Livingston3–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–1.12
4 November 2022Kilmarnock2–3LivingstonxG 1.04–1.68

10 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 4, Livingston won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 13–13 and xG 1.09–1.06 per game.