Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Livingston 1–2 Falkirk

Wednesday 4 February 2026, 19:45 · Home of the Set Fare Arena · Round 25 · Half-time 0–2 · Referee Matthew McDermid · Attendance 2,790

Livingston McLennan 47'

Falkirk Wilson 6', Marsh 25'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonFalkirk
Goals12
xG0.572.40
Expected Points0.242.63

Livingston 4%Draw 13%Falkirk 83%

Most likely score 0–2, 19%. Final score 1–2, 12%.

Falkirk goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+2%10%7%2%1%7%12%9%4%1%2%3%2%1%19%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

01230153045607590HTArfield on for Brenet, 57'Pittman on for Sylla, 64'May on for McLennan, 70'Ross on for Wilson, 46'Broggio on for Marsh and Tait on for Yeats, 67'Neilson on for Allan and Donaldson on for McCann, 88'McLennan 47'Wilson 6'Marsh 25'Falkirk 2.40Livingston 0.5701230153045607590HTArfield on for Brenet, 57'Pittman on for Sylla, 64'May on for McLennan, 70'Ross on for Wilson, 46'Broggio on for Marsh and Tait on for Yeats, 67'Neilson on for Allan and Donaldson on for McCann, 88'McLennan 47'Wilson 6'Marsh 25'2.400.57LivingstonFalkirk

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonFalkirk

0.57 −0.47xG2.40 +1.15
0.86 −0.17xG on target1.40 +0.21
10 +0.4Shots16 +3.8
3 −0.5Shots on target3 −1.0
1 −0.4Big chances4 +2.0
26 +7Touches in the opposition box27 +7
44% −2Possession56% +6
298 −85Passes399 −2
70% −5Pass accuracy80% +4
40% −1Field tilt60% +13
24 −10Final-third entries49 +15
11 +2.3Box entries15 +4.6
14.1 +1Passes per defensive action9.6 −3
6 +1.3Corners4 −0.8
14 −4Tackles17 −2
9 +0.3Interceptions8 −1.1
27 −5Clearances51 +22
1 −1.7Saves2 −1.2
16 +1Fouls14 +2
2 +0.6Offsides2 −0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Kabongolo 23', 0.10 xGKabongolo 90+2', 0.10 xGMuirhead 45', 0.06 xGTait 76', 0.04 xGMuirhead 86', 0.04 xGFinlayson 90+5', 0.04 xGFati 13', 0.02 xGBrenet 53', 0.01 xGMay 75', 0.01 xGMcLennan 47', 0.17 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals79%0.46 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 0.46 xG, 1 goal2%0.01 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals19%0.11 xGEdge of the box: 4 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Falkirk

Miller 66', 0.63 xGYeats 66', 0.13 xGMarsh 39', 0.11 xGWilson 45+1', 0.10 xGRoss 64', 0.08 xGMiller 81', 0.08 xGRoss 61', 0.07 xGSpencer 66', 0.07 xGYeats 52', 0.06 xGWilson 29', 0.04 xGMarsh 6', 0.03 xGMarsh 16', 0.02 xGMiller 21', 0.02 xGStewart 57', 0.01 xGMarsh 25', 0.73 xG, goalWilson 6', 0.22 xG, goal40%0.95 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.95 xG, 2 goals40%0.96 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.96 xG, 0 goals5%0.11 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.11 xG, 0 goals15%0.37 xGEdge of the box: 7 shots, 0.37 xG, 0 goals0%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonFalkirk

0.21 4 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.72 10 shots, 1 goal
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.78 3 shots, 0 goals
0.36 6 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.91 3 shots, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
6 min (6%) · Livingston 0.00, Falkirk 0.25 xG
Falkirk ahead
90 min (94%) · Livingston 0.57, Falkirk 2.15 xG

Line-ups

2819523302524315119PriorFinlaysonMcGowanKabongoloBrenetTaitSyllaFatiL. SmithMcLennanMuirheadYellow cardYellow cardGoalYellow card57'64'70'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale1928205322814293016BainLissahAllanHendersonMcCannWilsonSpencerYeatsMillerMarshStewartYellow cardGoalYellow cardGoalYellow card88'88'46'67'67'Falkirk 4-4-1-1John McGlynn

Livingston substitutes

  • 57' Arfield for Brenet
  • 64' Pittman for Sylla
  • 70' May for McLennan

Falkirk substitutes

  • 46' Ross for Wilson
  • 67' Tait for Yeats · yellow card 85'
  • 67' Broggio for Marsh
  • 88' Donaldson for McCann
  • 88' Neilson for Allan

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0000.0333
FinlaysonCB900.040.1800.07611
McGowan CB9010.000.1910.12110
KabongoloCB900.200.0200.0425
BrenetRWB570.010.0100.0211
TaitCM900.040.0400.0324
SyllaCM640.000.0100.0434
Fati LWB900.020.1600.1037
L. SmithAM900.000.8020.5272
McLennanAM7010.170.0100.0324
Muirhead ST900.100.142−0.0112
ArfieldMF330.000.011−0.0100
PittmanMF260.000.0100.0220
MayFW200.010.0610.0700

Falkirk

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
BainGK900.000.0000.0120
LissahRB900.000.0100.11139
Allan CB880.000.0000.04310
HendersonCB900.000.0100.07319
McCannLB880.000.0210.1055
Wilson RM4610.360.0110.0931
SpencerCM900.070.0300.0888
YeatsCM670.190.0110.0436
MillerLM900.720.1840.25105
MarshAM67110.890.6440.1423
Stewart ST9010.010.4820.0024
RossFW440.150.0310.0860
Tait MF230.000.0200.0332
BroggioFW230.000.0100.0021
DonaldsonDF20.000.0000.0002
NeilsonDF20.000.0000.0003

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

Prior and Fati: 3 passesPrior and Tait: 3 passesMcGowan and Sylla: 3 passesBrenet and McLennan: 3 passesBrenet and Muirhead: 3 passesTait and McLennan: 3 passesMcLennan and L. Smith: 3 passesL. Smith and Muirhead: 3 passesMcGowan and Tait: 4 passesBrenet and Tait: 4 passesFati and Sylla: 4 passesFati and McLennan: 4 passesSylla and Tait: 4 passesPrior and Finlayson: 5 passesPrior and Kabongolo: 5 passesMcGowan and Fati: 5 passesFinlayson and Kabongolo: 5 passesFinlayson and Brenet: 5 passesFinlayson and McLennan: 5 passesFati and Tait: 5 passesSylla and L. Smith: 5 passesMcLennan and Muirhead: 5 passesPrior and McGowan: 6 passesPrior: 16 completed passesMcGowan: 13 completed passesFinlayson: 14 completed passesKabongolo: 10 completed passesBrenet: 11 completed passesFati: 15 completed passesSylla: 11 completed passesTait: 15 completed passesMcLennan: 12 completed passesL. Smith: 7 completed passesMuirhead: 10 completed passes2851923303242511159PriorMcGowanFinlaysonKabongoloBrenetFatiSyllaTaitMcLennanL. SmithMuirheadStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Falkirk

Bain and Lissah: 3 passesLissah and McCann: 3 passesHenderson and Yeats: 3 passesMcCann and Wilson: 3 passesWilson and Spencer: 3 passesMiller and Stewart: 3 passesBain and Spencer: 4 passesLissah and Henderson: 4 passesLissah and Wilson: 4 passesLissah and Marsh: 4 passesWilson and Miller: 4 passesSpencer and Marsh: 4 passesSpencer and Stewart: 4 passesMiller and Marsh: 4 passesSpencer and Miller: 5 passesBain and Allan: 6 passesHenderson and Spencer: 6 passesMcCann and Marsh: 6 passesLissah and Yeats: 8 passesLissah and Spencer: 8 passesBain and Henderson: 11 passesMcCann and Spencer: 13 passesMcCann and Miller: 14 passesHenderson and McCann: 15 passesBain: 17 completed passesLissah: 19 completed passesHenderson: 24 completed passesAllan: 5 completed passesMcCann: 32 completed passesWilson: 9 completed passesYeats: 9 completed passesSpencer: 27 completed passesMiller: 12 completed passesMarsh: 11 completed passesStewart: 6 completed passes1928520322148293016BainLissahHendersonAllanMcCannWilsonYeatsSpencerMillerMarshStewartStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
FinlaysonKabongolo7
FatiMcLennan6
PriorKabongolo6
McGowanPrior5
PriorFinlayson5

Falkirk

FromToPasses
SpencerMcCann14
HendersonMcCann14
McCannMiller13
BainHenderson12
McCannHenderson10

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

5−0.212+4.615−1.16−1.26+0.870.010+2.080.05−3.14−1.04−1.12−2.26+0.45−1.21−3.01−3.52−0.74+0.25+0.83+0.41−1.11−0.42+0.12−0.91−0.40−0.43+2.30−0.50−1.22−4.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Falkirk

8−0.27+0.426+11.77−0.77+1.84−5.46−1.110+4.070.09+1.117+10.42−2.74+1.06+2.03−3.41−3.38+4.56+4.02−0.71−3.45+1.13+1.04+2.86+3.80−2.52+0.90−0.31+0.40−0.30−0.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.010.010.010.010.040.010.010.020.070.02−0.010.030.030.010.010.050.020.010.160.11−0.150.010.180.200.24LessMore

Falkirk

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.030.080.060.020.020.010.020.040.030.060.07−0.03−0.01−0.01−0.010.100.100.140.120.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackLivingston0.93 → 0.91Falkirk1.22 → 1.27Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.81 → 1.85Falkirk1.21 → 1.18

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th10%7%−3
Bottom88%92%+4
Falkirk
Top six91%96%+5
Kilmarnock
11th59%63%+4
Bottom10%7%−3
Aberdeen
Top six5%3%−2

From the forecast before the match (4 February 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonFalkirk
Expected goals1.021.49
Win25%48%
Expected Points1.031.70
Clean sheet23%36%

Livingston 25%Draw 27%Falkirk 48%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 50%.

Falkirk goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+9%9%4%2%8%9%5%2%4%6%5%2%1%2%2%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 4 February 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawFalkirk win
Livingston
11th10%16%9%7%
Bottom88%80%89%92%
Falkirk
Top six91%84%89%96%
Kilmarnock
11th59%52%59%63%
Bottom10%16%9%7%
Aberdeen
Top six5%9%6%3%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–231 JanMotherwell (H)xG 0.22–1.62
  2. L2–624 JanAberdeen (A)xG 2.01–3.08
  3. D1–120 JanSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.47–1.41
  4. D1–110 JanKilmarnock (H)xG 1.30–1.69
  5. L0–13 JanHearts (A)xG 0.54–2.23
  6. L1–330 DecDundee United (H)xG 0.45–3.25

Falkirk

  1. L0–21 FebCeltic (A)xG 1.07–0.66
  2. W4–124 JanHibernian (H)xG 3.64–0.73
  3. L0–114 JanCeltic (H)xG 1.72–0.62
  4. W2–010 JanSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.52–0.54
  5. W1–03 JanAberdeen (H)xG 1.53–0.57
  6. L0–127 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.33–1.24

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonFalkirk
Position12th6th
Played2424
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠8–⁠159–⁠6–⁠9
Points11 (0.46 per game)33 (1.38 per game)
Expected Points per game0.851.39
Goals24–⁠5027–⁠31
xG per game1.04–⁠1.941.25–⁠1.29
Home: points, xG per game0.58, 1.13–⁠1.711.42, 1.57–⁠1.04
Away: points, xG per game0.33, 0.94–⁠2.171.33, 0.94–⁠1.53
ManagerDavid Martindale (161)John McGlynn (24)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.0League average 1.31AttackLivingston0.93, 12thFalkirk1.22, 6thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.81, 12thFalkirk1.21, 6th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston attack: 0.93Falkirk attack: 1.221.220.93FalkirkLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebLivingston defence: 1.81Falkirk defence: 1.211.811.21

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonFalkirk
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%+35%+3%−10%
Counter-attacks−65%+21%−18%+23%
Set pieces−22%+33%−17%−23%
Penalties+43%+100%−71%+14%
Headers−36%+20%−23%+8%
Left side−43%+23%−51%−18%
Centre−28%+30%−2%−12%
Right side−31%+49%+35%+2%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdFalkirk concededLeft side−43%+2%Centre−28%−12%Right side−31%−18%Open play−31%−10%Counter-attacks−65%+23%Set pieces−22%−23%Headers−36%+8%

Falkirk attacking

Falkirk createdLivingston concededLeft side−51%+49%Centre−2%+30%Right side+35%+23%Open play+3%+35%Counter-attacks−18%+21%Set pieces−17%+33%Headers−23%+20%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonFalkirk

1.04xG1.25
1.94xG against1.29
46%Possession50%
9.6Shots12.2
13.9Shots against12.1
3.5Shots on target4.0
1.4Big chances2.0
19.3Touches in the opposition box20.0
383Passes401
75%Pass accuracy76%
4.7Corners4.8
42%Field tilt46%
34.2Final-third entries34.3
8.7Box entries10.4
12.8Passes per defensive action13.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level421.032.03
Ahead91.092.77
Behind391.031.65

Falkirk

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level441.261.53
Ahead191.400.63
Behind271.151.34

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.342–8
16–300.170.245–6
31–450.280.405–8
46–600.100.341–7
61–750.200.234–6
76–900.210.387–15

Falkirk

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.210.152–1
16–300.260.264–6
31–450.210.343–11
46–600.200.176–3
61–750.170.207–5
76–900.200.175–5

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBCMCMCMRWSTLWPrior 24Finlayson 11Brenet 8Lawal 5McGowan 13Finlayson 10Sylla 2Wilson 18Blaney 3Kabongolo 2Montano 11Montgomery 8Lawal 2Pittman 20Danso 1Wilson 1Susoho 13Muirhead 1May 1Tait 19Sylla 13Carey 1L. Smith 13McLennan 4Pittman 1Bokila 8Muirhead 7Yengi 7May 12Yengi 4McLennan 34-3-3 in 11 of 24 starts

Formations: 4-3-3 (11), 4-2-3-1 (11), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Falkirk

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTBain 24Adams 17Lissah 5Allan 1Allan 15Neilson 6Lissah 2Henderson 24McCann 14Lissah 7Hart 2Spencer 23Cartwright 8Stewart 1Tait 15Yeats 1Wilson 14Miller 4Williams 2Miller 8Tait 5Yeats 3Miller 11Williams 6Ross 4MacIver 9Graham 7Stewart 44-2-3-1 in every start

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
8 November 2025Falkirk1–1LivingstonxG 1.82–0.62
9 August 2025Livingston3–1FalkirkxG 1.59–0.78

2 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 1, Falkirk won 0, and 1 was a draw. Goals 4–2 and xG 1.10–1.30 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead9841310.510.16
Yengi111,054200.300.08
McLennan7696200.260.08
Bokila9824500.330.02

Falkirk

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
MacIver9661310.410.12
Graham7730400.450.07
Miller231,832460.230.24
Wilson141,097110.280.13

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.