Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Livingston 0–0 Kilmarnock

Saturday 16 December 2023, 15:00 · Tony Macaroni Arena · Round 18 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee William Collum · Attendance 2,820

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals00
xG1.140.88
Non-penalty xG0.350.88
Expected Points1.621.02

Livingston 42%Draw 36%Kilmarnock 22%

Most likely score 1–1, 25%. Final score 0–0, 6%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+6%6%2%10%2%8%8%4%1%1%23%25%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Sean Kelly, 46'Montano on for Shinnie, 74'Stephen Kelly on for Guthrie, 83'Dallas on for Watkins, 33'Mackay-Steven on for Polworth and Magennis on for Armstrong, 87'McKenzie on for Magennis, 90+4'Livingston 1.14Kilmarnock 0.8800.511.50153045607590HTAnderson on for Sean Kelly, 46'Montano on for Shinnie, 74'Stephen Kelly on for Guthrie, 83'Dallas on for Watkins, 33'Mackay-Steven on for Polworth and Magennis on for Armstrong, 87'McKenzie on for Magennis, 90+4'1.140.88LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.14 +0.23xG0.88 −0.39
0.35Non-penalty xG0.88
0.09 −0.60xG on target0.20 −1.02
8 −1.1Shots11 −3.2
1 −1.1Shots on target3 −0.8
1 +0.1Big chances0 −1.9
16 0Touches in the opposition box30 +6
48% +4Possession52% +5
301 −23Passes317 −19
54% −8Pass accuracy58% −6
44% +2Field tilt56% +6
20 −6Final-third entries23 −12
7 −0.6Box entries17 +5.1
9.0 −5Passes per defensive action16.4 +2
0 −3.9Corners8 +1.4
18 +2Tackles7 −6
5 −3.2Interceptions5 −2.0
27 +3Clearances17 −1
3 +0.1Saves1 −1.9
17 +4Fouls11 −1
3 +1.5Offsides5 +4.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

Anderson 81', 0.08 xGGuthrie 81', 0.07 xGObileye 1', 0.05 xGAnderson 81', 0.05 xGPittman 58', 0.04 xGAnderson 88', 0.04 xGGuthrie 45+1', 0.02 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals66%0.23 xGCentral box: 4 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals34%0.12 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.12 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Vassell 10', 0.18 xGVassell 72', 0.16 xGLyons 10', 0.11 xGWatson 53', 0.10 xGDeas 16', 0.07 xGVassell 29', 0.07 xGVassell 7', 0.06 xGNdaba 29', 0.05 xGVassell 52', 0.04 xGArmstrong 10', 0.03 xGLyons 45+2', 0.01 xG26%0.23 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.23 xG, 0 goals50%0.44 xGCentral box: 7 shots, 0.44 xG, 0 goals20%0.18 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.18 xG, 0 goals3%0.03 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.03 xG, 0 goals0%0.00 xGFurther out: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.33 6 shots, 0 goalsOpen play0.32 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.18 1 shot, 0 goals
0.02 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.38 5 shots, 0 goals
0.79 1 shot, 0 goalsPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
96 min (100%) · Livingston 1.14, Kilmarnock 0.89 xG

Line-ups

121651918242982228GeorgeNottinghamObileyeDevlinNoubleHoltSean KellyPenricePittmanShinnieGuthrieYellow cardYellow card46'74'83'Livingston 3-4-2-1David Martindale1517611812313239DennisMayoFindlayDeasArmstrongLyonsWatsonPolworthNdabaWatkinsVassellYellow card87'87'33'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes

Livingston substitutes

  • 46' Anderson for Sean Kelly · penalty missed 83'
  • 74' Montano for Shinnie
  • 83' Stephen Kelly for Guthrie

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 33' Dallas for Watkins
  • 87' Magennis for Armstrong · off 90+4'
  • 87' Mackay-Steven for Polworth
  • 90+4' McKenzie for Magennis

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0100.0641
NottinghamCB900.000.0700.0637
Obileye CB900.050.0000.04310
Devlin CB900.000.0200.04107
NoubleRWB900.000.1510.0632
HoltCM900.000.0500.0616
Sean KellyCM460.000.0000.0001
PenriceLWB900.000.1620.0939
PittmanAM900.040.0100.0114
ShinnieAM740.000.0200.0111
GuthrieST830.090.0200.0104
AndersonFW440.960.0210.0300
MontanoFW160.000.0100.0220
Stephen KellyMF70.000.1200.0811

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0110
MayoCB900.000.0300.0769
FindlayCB900.000.0000.0336
Deas CB900.070.0000.0115
ArmstrongRWB870.030.2730.3093
LyonsCM900.120.0100.0124
WatsonCM900.100.0100.0112
PolworthCM870.000.1630.1841
NdabaLWB900.050.021−0.0412
WatkinsST330.000.0000.0100
VassellST900.510.0600.0831
DallasFW570.000.0100.0420
MagennisMF30.000.000––0
Mackay-StevenFW30.000.0000.0110
McKenzieMF00.000.000––0

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Livingston

George and Devlin: 3 passesObileye and Holt: 3 passesObileye and Sean Kelly: 3 passesObileye and Guthrie: 3 passesNottingham and Shinnie: 3 passesDevlin and Pittman: 3 passesDevlin and Shinnie: 3 passesPenrice and Holt: 3 passesPittman and Shinnie: 3 passesShinnie and Guthrie: 3 passesGeorge and Obileye: 4 passesGeorge and Guthrie: 4 passesObileye and Devlin: 4 passesDevlin and Penrice: 4 passesDevlin and Holt: 4 passesPittman and Guthrie: 4 passesPenrice and Shinnie: 5 passesNottingham and Nouble: 6 passesNouble and Holt: 6 passesGeorge: 9 completed passesObileye: 12 completed passesNottingham: 9 completed passesDevlin: 18 completed passesNouble: 10 completed passesPenrice: 9 completed passesHolt: 14 completed passesSean Kelly: 8 completed passesPittman: 7 completed passesShinnie: 10 completed passesGuthrie: 8 completed passes162151929182482228GeorgeObileyeNottinghamDevlinNoublePenriceHoltSean KellyPittmanShinnieGuthrieStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Armstrong: 3 passesArmstrong and Ndaba: 3 passesLyons and Vassell: 3 passesDeas and Ndaba: 4 passesMayo and Polworth: 4 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 4 passesNdaba and Watson: 4 passesPolworth and Lyons: 4 passesArmstrong and Watson: 5 passesArmstrong and Polworth: 10 passesDennis: 2 completed passesDeas: 7 completed passesMayo: 11 completed passesFindlay: 3 completed passesArmstrong: 14 completed passesNdaba: 9 completed passesWatson: 6 completed passesPolworth: 14 completed passesLyons: 8 completed passesWatkins: 0 completed passesVassell: 1 completed passes1651711312318239DennisDeasMayoFindlayArmstrongNdabaWatsonPolworthLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 33' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
DevlinGuthrie6
DevlinGeorge5
GeorgeGuthrie5
HoltDevlin5
GeorgeDevlin5

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
ArmstrongPolworth10
PolworthArmstrong8
ArmstrongWatson8
NdabaPolworth7
WatsonArmstrong6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

3−3.65−2.318+3.311+4.18+2.15−1.55−3.10−4.37−0.79+1.93−4.16+0.31−3.17+1.54−2.23−1.66+1.72+0.31−2.015+10.61−1.90−2.63+2.32−0.52−0.90−0.81+0.70−0.80−0.30−0.7FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 15 matches

Kilmarnock

2−2.87+0.510−1.55−2.22−2.36−0.77−0.45−0.96−0.13−3.716+10.94−1.33−0.62−2.82−3.54−1.32−1.32−0.81−2.82−3.13−0.11−1.10−0.91−1.02−0.32+1.40−0.31+0.10−0.21+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 17 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.020.040.010.010.010.030.010.010.020.010.020.010.010.070.020.050.09−0.10−0.020.060.17LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.010.020.010.010.010.030.040.020.040.010.010.010.10−0.010.060.100.03−0.02−0.02−0.010.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.97 → 0.97Kilmarnock1.17 → 1.15Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.41 → 1.39Kilmarnock1.24 → 1.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
Top six2%2%0
Bottom40%41%+1
Kilmarnock
Top six77%77%0
11th1%1%0
Bottom<1%<1%0
St. Johnstone
Top six6%6%0
11th24%24%0
Bottom24%23%−1
Motherwell
Top six6%6%0
11th19%19%0
Bottom16%17%+1

From the forecast before the match (16 December 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.131.14
Win35%35%
Expected Points1.341.36
Clean sheet32%32%

Livingston 35%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 14%. Both sides score 47%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+7%3%8%3%7%8%4%2%2%3%2%11%11%11%14%

From the forecast as it stood on 16 December 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawKilmarnock win
Livingston
Top six2%4%2%1%
Bottom40%29%41%48%
Kilmarnock
Top six77%67%77%86%
11th1%2%1%<1%
Bottom<1%1%<1%<1%
St. Johnstone
Top six6%6%6%6%
11th24%23%24%24%
Bottom24%28%23%21%
Motherwell
Top six6%7%6%6%
11th19%18%19%20%
Bottom16%19%17%14%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–19 DecHibernian (H)xG 1.34–0.22
  2. L0–125 NovSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.59–0.81
  3. L0–212 NovRangers (H)xG 0.13–2.68
  4. L0–15 NovDundee FC (A)xG 1.49–0.67
  5. L0–11 NovHearts (A)xG 0.21–1.91
  6. L0–228 OctDundee FC (H)xG 0.14–2.02

Kilmarnock

  1. W2–110 DecCeltic (H)xG 2.06–1.68
  2. W1–06 DecAberdeen (A)xG 0.64–1.14
  3. L0–12 DecHearts (H)xG 1.16–0.73
  4. D0–025 NovRoss County (A)xG 0.65–0.88
  5. L0–111 NovHibernian (A)xG 0.46–0.41
  6. W1–04 NovMotherwell (H)xG 1.95–0.61

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position12th5th
Played1517
Won, drawn, lost2–⁠4–⁠96–⁠5–⁠6
Points10 (0.67 per game)23 (1.35 per game)
Expected Points per game1.231.44
Goals9–⁠2318–⁠17
xG per game0.91–⁠1.221.27–⁠1.13
Home: points, xG per game0.71, 1.05–⁠1.281.89, 1.30–⁠0.91
Away: points, xG per game0.62, 0.80–⁠1.170.75, 1.24–⁠1.37
ManagerDavid Martindale (114)Derek McInnes (55)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackLivingston0.97, 12thKilmarnock1.17, 5thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.41, 8thKilmarnock1.24, 3rd

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecLivingston attack: 0.97Kilmarnock attack: 1.171.170.97KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecLivingston defence: 1.41Kilmarnock defence: 1.241.411.24

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−49%−17%−14%−27%
Counter-attacks+7%−47%−32%−22%
Set pieces−26%average+26%+13%
Penalties+14%+14%−33%−33%
Headers−20%−14%+41%−20%
Left side−42%−1%+9%−38%
Centre−36%−24%−20%−15%
Right side−42%−8%+14%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−42%+3%Centre−36%−15%Right side−42%−38%Open play−49%−27%Counter-attacks+7%−22%Set pieces−26%+13%Headers−20%−20%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side+9%−8%Centre−20%−24%Right side+14%−1%Open play−14%−17%Counter-attacks−32%−47%Set pieces+26%averageHeaders+41%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.91xG1.27
1.22xG against1.13
44%Possession47%
9.1Shots14.2
13.4Shots against12.4
2.1Shots on target3.8
0.9Big chances1.9
16.3Touches in the opposition box23.9
324Passes336
63%Pass accuracy64%
3.9Corners6.6
42%Field tilt51%
25.8Final-third entries34.5
7.6Box entries11.9
14.0Passes per defensive action14.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level500.751.11
Ahead81.690.82
Behind320.981.48

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level491.111.07
Ahead151.171.31
Behind261.641.14

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.151–2
16–300.040.180–3
31–450.140.141–3
46–600.160.272–4
61–750.230.164–2
76–900.250.311–9

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.171–3
16–300.210.183–3
31–450.250.192–5
46–600.240.083–3
61–750.170.185–0
76–900.320.324–3

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 13Hamilton 2de Lucas 9Penrice 3Montano 2Obileye 9Nottingham 2Devlin 12Sean Kelly 7Brandon 8Mackay 3Welch-Hayes 2Shinnie 8Sangare 2Holt 8Pittman 4Penrice 4Penrice 6Holt 5Shinnie 3Pittman 6Sangare 3Stephen Kelly 2Nouble 12Guthrie 5Anderson 8Stephen Kelly 3Shinnie 13-4-1-2 in 5 of 15 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (5), 3-4-2-1 (3), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 17Mayo 16Wright 10Deas 9Findlay 16Armstrong 16Mayo 1Watson 13Armstrong 1Watkins 1Lyons 16Donnelly 5Deas 2Magennis 7Polworth 4Kennedy 1Kennedy 8Ndaba 7Deas 1Watkins 13Kennedy 4Vassell 12Findlay 1Polworth 13-5-2 in 9 of 17 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (9), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-4-2 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
21 October 2023Kilmarnock3–1LivingstonxG 1.21–1.13
13 May 2023Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.75–0.32
4 February 2023Livingston3–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–1.12
4 November 2022Kilmarnock2–3LivingstonxG 1.04–1.68
17 September 2022Livingston1–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.11
27 January 2021Livingston2–0KilmarnockxG 1.10–0.59

8 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 5, Kilmarnock won 3, and 0 were drawn. Goals 13–12 and xG 1.09–1.16 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Sean Kelly9772300.320.05
Anderson8834300.310.04
Penrice131,162010.030.16
Nouble141,244010.130.05

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong171,500350.280.35
Kennedy131,238120.170.19
Vassell121,059500.290.07
Watson131,193220.120.12

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.