Digressive Celts

Matches › 2025/26

Livingston 1–1 Kilmarnock

Saturday 10 January 2026, 15:00 · Home of the Set Fare Arena · Round 22 · Half-time 1–0 · Referee Don Robertson · Attendance 2,281

Livingston McLennan 45+1'

Kilmarnock Dackers 70'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

LivingstonKilmarnock
Goals11
xG1.301.69
Expected Points1.031.67

Livingston 24%Draw 30%Kilmarnock 45%

Most likely score 1–1, 16%. Final score 1–1, 16%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+2%7%7%3%4%6%1%2%10%11%4%3%3%1%16%15%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.520153045607590HTWilson on for Kabongolo, 10'Smith on for May and Sylla on for Susoho, 72'Arfield on for Tait and Tamm on for Yengi, 79'Dackers on for Tiffoney, 60'McKenzie on for Schjønning-Larsen and Polworth on for Thompson, 68'Brannan on for John-Jules, 89'McLennan 45+1'Dackers 70'Kilmarnock 1.69Livingston 1.3000.511.520153045607590HTWilson on for Kabongolo, 10'Smith on for May and Sylla on for Susoho, 72'Arfield on for Tait and Tamm on for Yengi, 79'Dackers on for Tiffoney, 60'McKenzie on for Schjønning-Larsen and Polworth on for Thompson, 68'Brannan on for John-Jules, 89'McLennan 45+1'Dackers 70'1.691.30LivingstonKilmarnock

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.30 +0.31xG1.69 +0.54
0.96 −0.05xG on target1.94 +0.84
12 +2.2Shots9 −1.5
5 +1.5Shots on target4 +0.4
2 +0.7Big chances4 +2.3
26 +6Touches in the opposition box21 +1
61% +15Possession39% −1
492 +123Passes305 −14
78% +4Pass accuracy70% −1
68% +27Field tilt32% −7
47 +13Final-third entries34 +3
16 +7.4Box entries9 −0.3
9.9 −3Passes per defensive action12.7 −4
7 +2.3Corners5 +0.6
15 −4Tackles14 −2
9 +0.7Interceptions6 −2.5
27 −8Clearances52 +17
3 +0.3Saves4 +0.6
12 −3Fouls16 +3
0 −1.4Offsides2 +0.2

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Livingston

McLennan 33', 0.55 xGWilson 24', 0.12 xGTamm 84', 0.07 xGArfield 85', 0.06 xGYengi 62', 0.05 xGArfield 86', 0.05 xGLawal 39', 0.04 xGMay 54', 0.04 xGSmith 77', 0.04 xGYengi 37', 0.03 xGMcLennan 76', 0.02 xGMcLennan 45+1', 0.25 xG, goal0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals78%1.02 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.02 xG, 1 goal11%0.14 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.14 xG, 0 goals8%0.10 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals3%0.04 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Kilmarnock

Lyons 63', 0.30 xGJohn-Jules 70', 0.27 xGJohn-Jules 70', 0.12 xGJohn-Jules 81', 0.09 xGAnderson 35', 0.08 xGMcKenzie 81', 0.06 xGJohn-Jules 19', 0.01 xGThompson 78', 0.01 xGDackers 70', 0.72 xG, goal21%0.36 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.36 xG, 0 goals78%1.31 xGCentral box: 5 shots, 1.31 xG, 1 goal0%0.00 xGWide in the box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

LivingstonKilmarnock

1.12 9 shots, 1 goalOpen play1.36 6 shots, 1 goal
0.19 3 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.33 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
66 min (73%) · Livingston 1.22, Kilmarnock 0.39 xG
Livingston ahead
25 min (27%) · Livingston 0.09, Kilmarnock 1.30 xG

Line-ups

2840523302587113917PriorLawalMcGowanKabongoloBrenetTaitPittmanSusohoMcLennanYengiMayYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardYellow cardGoal10'79'72'79'72'Livingston 4-3-3David Martindale202152563228171924OluwayemiSchjønning-LarsenMayoSchilte-BrownDeasThompsonThomsonLyonsTiffoneyAndersonJohn-JulesYellow card68'68'60'89'Kilmarnock 5-3-2Kris Doolan

Livingston substitutes

  • 10' Wilson for Kabongolo
  • 72' Sylla for Susoho
  • 72' Smith for May
  • 79' Arfield for Tait
  • 79' Tamm for Yengi

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 60' Dackers for Tiffoney · goal 70'
  • 68' Polworth for Thompson
  • 68' McKenzie for Schjønning-Larsen
  • 89' Brannan for John-Jules

Players

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
PriorGK900.000.0000.0451
LawalRB900.040.2210.2666
McGowan CB900.000.0100.0248
Kabongolo CB100.000.0000.0000
BrenetLB900.000.4410.2963
Tait CM7910.000.4220.2145
PittmanCM900.000.0310.0555
Susoho CM720.000.010−0.0314
McLennanRW9010.820.1220.1444
YengiST790.080.020−0.0112
MayLW720.040.0410.08105
WilsonDF800.120.0000.0427
SyllaMF180.000.0010.0102
SmithFW180.040.0210.1240
ArfieldMF110.110.0200.0511
TammFW110.070.0000.0000

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
OluwayemiGK900.000.0000.0441
Schjønning-LarsenRWB680.000.0200.07711
MayoCB900.000.1820.2268
Schilte-BrownCB900.000.0000.0237
DeasCB900.000.0100.07717
Thompson LWB680.010.0700.0885
ThomsonCM900.000.0200.0755
LyonsCM900.300.060−0.0168
TiffoneyCM600.000.1610.1712
AndersonST900.080.000−0.0111
John-JulesST890.500.2510.1625
DackersFW3010.720.0100.0003
PolworthMF220.000.0410.0331
McKenzieMF220.060.1120.0522
BrannanDF10.000.0000.0110

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Oluwayemi and Anderson: 3 passesSchilte-Brown and John-Jules: 3 passesDeas and Thomson: 3 passesLyons and Anderson: 3 passesMayo and Lyons: 4 passesMayo and Anderson: 4 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Thompson: 4 passesSchjønning-Larsen and John-Jules: 4 passesTiffoney and Thomson: 4 passesThompson and John-Jules: 4 passesDeas and Schjønning-Larsen: 5 passesTiffoney and Lyons: 5 passesLyons and John-Jules: 5 passesOluwayemi and Schilte-Brown: 6 passesMayo and Schilte-Brown: 6 passesMayo and Thomson: 6 passesThomson and Thompson: 6 passesThomson and John-Jules: 6 passesMayo and John-Jules: 7 passesSchjønning-Larsen and Lyons: 7 passesMayo and Tiffoney: 8 passesOluwayemi: 10 completed passesMayo: 23 completed passesSchilte-Brown: 10 completed passesDeas: 10 completed passesSchjønning-Larsen: 16 completed passesTiffoney: 8 completed passesThomson: 14 completed passesLyons: 17 completed passesThompson: 10 completed passesJohn-Jules: 10 completed passesAnderson: 5 completed passes205256211722832419OluwayemiMayoSchilte-BrownDeasSchjønning-LarsenTiffoneyThomsonLyonsThompsonJohn-JulesAndersonStarters until 60' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Livingston

FromToPasses
BrenetMcLennan21
McGowanBrenet15
LawalMay14
MayYengi13
PriorMcGowan11

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
MayoJohn-Jules11
John-JulesMayo6
MayoThomson6
OluwayemiSchilte-Brown6
LyonsMayo6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Livingston

2−3.74−3.415−2.15−2.38+2.75−2.44−4.29+2.06−2.47−1.14−0.850.09+5.03−2.94−2.410+6.36+1.51−1.73−0.95+0.81−1.56+4.21−0.51−0.91−2.01−0.40−0.40−0.80−0.60−1.3FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 20 matches

Kilmarnock

1−4.89+0.323+6.117+10.53−1.42−5.77−0.15−2.217+8.912+6.55−0.56+1.02−1.57+1.97+1.92−2.01−3.04+1.33−0.15+1.44+1.43+1.04+2.51−0.94+2.22+1.11+0.50−1.01+0.60−0.8FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 21 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Livingston

0.020.020.020.020.060.030.050.010.040.040.040.010.060.050.090.020.080.110.010.14−0.020.200.15LessMore

Kilmarnock

0.020.030.010.030.030.02−0.010.040.010.040.040.030.030.060.020.04−0.01−0.03−0.050.03−0.05−0.010.230.170.23LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackLivingston0.93 → 0.93Kilmarnock1.06 → 1.07Defence (lower is better)Livingston1.76 → 1.76Kilmarnock1.60 → 1.58

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Livingston
11th23%22%−1
Bottom71%73%+2
Kilmarnock
11th52%55%+3
Bottom26%24%−2
Dundee FC
11th14%13%−1

From the forecast before the match (10 January 2026): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

LivingstonKilmarnock
Expected goals1.331.27
Win38%35%
Expected Points1.401.32
Clean sheet28%26%

Livingston 38%Draw 28%Kilmarnock 35%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 54%.

Kilmarnock goalsLivingston goals0123456+0123456+8%9%6%3%9%8%3%1%7%8%5%2%3%4%2%1%1%1%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 10 January 2026: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowLivingston winDrawKilmarnock win
Livingston
11th23%34%22%13%
Bottom71%57%73%85%
Kilmarnock
11th52%46%55%56%
Bottom26%39%24%12%
Dundee FC
11th14%12%13%18%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Livingston

  1. L0–13 JanHearts (A)xG 0.54–2.23
  2. L1–330 DecDundee United (H)xG 0.45–3.25
  3. L2–427 DecCeltic (H)xG 1.09–3.83
  4. L0–120 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.24–2.23
  5. D2–213 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.89–0.46
  6. L0–36 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.67–2.41

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–33 JanHibernian (H)xG 0.44–2.78
  2. L1–230 DecDundee FC (A)xG 1.27–2.23
  3. D0–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.75–1.36
  4. L0–120 DecFalkirk (H)xG 1.19–1.46
  5. L1–214 DecAberdeen (A)xG 1.02–3.76
  6. L0–36 DecRangers (H)xG 0.66–0.75

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

LivingstonKilmarnock
Position12th11th
Played2021
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠6–⁠132–⁠7–⁠12
Points9 (0.45 per game)13 (0.62 per game)
Expected Points per game0.860.95
Goals20–⁠4019–⁠38
xG per game0.99–⁠1.941.15–⁠1.88
Home: points, xG per game0.56, 1.17–⁠1.760.55, 1.25–⁠1.62
Away: points, xG per game0.36, 0.85–⁠2.080.70, 1.03–⁠2.16
ManagerDavid Martindale (157)Kris Doolan (4)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.32AttackLivingston0.93, 12thKilmarnock1.06, 10thDefence (lower is better)Livingston1.76, 12thKilmarnock1.60, 10th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston attack: 0.93Kilmarnock attack: 1.061.060.93KilmarnockLivingstonDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanLivingston defence: 1.76Kilmarnock defence: 1.601.761.60

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

LivingstonKilmarnock
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−31%+30%−31%+23%
Counter-attacks−62%+18%+23%+7%
Set pieces−42%+37%+12%+34%
Penalties+58%+121%−70%+140%
Headers−41%+5%−11%+25%
Left side−39%+31%−50%+26%
Centre−40%+21%+9%+37%
Right side−31%+49%−23%−5%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−39%−5%Centre−40%+37%Right side−31%+26%Open play−31%+23%Counter-attacks−62%+7%Set pieces−42%+34%Headers−41%+25%

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−50%+49%Centre+9%+21%Right side−23%+31%Open play−31%+30%Counter-attacks+23%+18%Set pieces+12%+37%Headers−11%+5%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

LivingstonKilmarnock

0.99xG1.15
1.94xG against1.88
46%Possession40%
9.8Shots10.5
14.2Shots against14.7
3.5Shots on target3.6
1.3Big chances1.7
19.6Touches in the opposition box19.7
369Passes320
74%Pass accuracy70%
4.7Corners4.4
41%Field tilt39%
34.0Final-third entries30.8
8.6Box entries9.3
12.9Passes per defensive action16.2

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level440.812.09
Ahead71.422.43
Behind391.121.68

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level401.221.73
Ahead151.012.71
Behind361.121.70

xG by period

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.090.372–6
16–300.160.254–5
31–450.190.353–6
46–600.100.400–7
61–750.230.194–4
76–900.230.387–12

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.280–4
16–300.170.244–7
31–450.330.257–3
46–600.150.314–8
61–750.120.371–8
76–900.290.423–8

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Livingston

GKRBCBCBLBDMDMRWAMLWSTPrior 20Finlayson 11Brenet 5Lawal 3McGowan 9Finlayson 7Sylla 2Wilson 18Blaney 3Kabongolo 1Montaño 9Montgomery 8May 1Tait 11Pittman 10Sylla 10Susoho 8Smith 12Pittman 1May 1Pittman 8Tait 4Sylla 3May 8Yengi 4Winter 3Bokila 8Yengi 6Muirhead 44-2-3-1 in 10 of 20 starts

Formations: 4-2-3-1 (10), 4-3-3 (8), 3-5-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1)

Kilmarnock

GKRWBCBCBCBLWBCMCMCMSTSTOluwayemi 11Stryjek 7Beach 3Brown 13Brannan 4Brandon 4Stanger 11Schilte-B… 7Schilte-BrownMayo 18Lyons 2Polworth 1Deas 18Williams 3Thompson 18Brannan 3Watson 18McKenzie 3Anderson 2Polworth 12Thomson 1Lyons 12Kiltie 7Lowery 7Dackers 10John-Jules 6Tiffoney 4Anderson 13Kiltie 4Daniels 45-3-2 in 5 of 21 starts

Formations: 5-3-2 (5), 3-5-2 (4), 4-1-4-1 (3), 3-4-3 (3), 3-1-4-2 (2), 4-4-2 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 5-4-1 (1), 3-4-1-2 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
2 August 2025Kilmarnock2–2LivingstonxG 0.91–1.83
7 February 2024Kilmarnock1–0LivingstonxG 0.75–0.72
16 December 2023Livingston0–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
21 October 2023Kilmarnock3–1LivingstonxG 1.21–1.13
13 May 2023Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.75–0.32
4 February 2023Livingston3–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–1.12

11 league meetings since 2020/21: Livingston won 5, Kilmarnock won 4, and 2 were drawn. Goals 15–15 and xG 1.13–1.08 per game.

Key players

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Muirhead6617110.450.20
Yengi10975200.320.08
Bokila9819500.330.02
May131,058020.100.19

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Dackers111,037100.300.11
Anderson151,262310.350.04
John-Jules6622300.310.03
Tiffoney5506110.210.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.