Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 1–0 Livingston

Wednesday 7 February 2024, 19:45 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 25 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Dickinson · Attendance 4,328

Kilmarnock Watkins 88'

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockLivingston
Goals10
xG0.750.72
Expected Points1.341.26

Kilmarnock 31%Draw 40%Livingston 28%

Most likely score 0–0, 21%. Final score 1–0, 19%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+5%5%6%5%2%21%16%19%18%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.250.50.7510153045607590HTPolworth on for Watson and Kennedy on for Davies, 46'McKenzie on for Stewart, Murray on for Armstrong, and van Veen on for Vassell, 71'Shinnie on for Bradley, 57'Sangare on for Mackay, 64'Anderson on for Yengi, 81'Watkins 88'Kilmarnock 0.75Livingston 0.7200.250.50.7510153045607590HTPolworth on for Watson and Kennedy on for Davies, 46'McKenzie on for Stewart, Murray on for Armstrong, and van Veen on for Vassell, 71'Shinnie on for Bradley, 57'Sangare on for Mackay, 64'Anderson on for Yengi, 81'Watkins 88'0.750.72KilmarnockLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

0.75 −0.45xG0.72 −0.26
1.50 +0.33xG on target0.30 −0.49
12 −1.0Shots11 +1.9
6 +2.5Shots on target4 +1.9
1 −0.8Big chances1 −0.3
22 0Touches in the opposition box13 −4
64% +18Possession36% −8
522 +191Passes311 −18
78% +14Pass accuracy65% +3
73% +23Field tilt27% −16
48 +15Final-third entries29 +1
16 +4.5Box entries6 −1.6
16.5 +2Passes per defensive action30.5 +16
9 +2.6Corners2 −1.5
19 +6Tackles15 −2
6 −0.9Interceptions5 −2.5
14 −7Clearances26 +3
4 +1.1Saves5 +2.1
8 −4Fouls9 −3
1 −0.1Offsides4 +2.1

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Watkins 78', 0.08 xGDonnelly 60', 0.05 xGKennedy 87', 0.05 xGVassell 14', 0.03 xGDavies 17', 0.03 xGWatkins 47', 0.02 xGKennedy 51', 0.02 xGStewart 59', 0.02 xGPolworth 75', 0.02 xGPolworth 84', 0.02 xGArmstrong 57', 0.01 xGWatkins 88', 0.40 xG, goal59%0.44 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.44 xG, 1 goal13%0.10 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.10 xG, 0 goals7%0.05 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.05 xG, 0 goals20%0.15 xGEdge of the box: 6 shots, 0.15 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Yengi 45+2', 0.25 xGPittman 73', 0.13 xGSangare 76', 0.10 xGNottingham 20', 0.08 xGMackay 62', 0.05 xGHolt 45', 0.04 xGMackay 62', 0.03 xGBradley 50', 0.02 xGBradley 13', 0.01 xGPittman 25', 0.01 xGCarson 25', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals25%0.18 xGCentral box: 2 shots, 0.18 xG, 0 goals12%0.09 xGWide in the box: 3 shots, 0.09 xG, 0 goals57%0.41 xGEdge of the box: 3 shots, 0.41 xG, 0 goals6%0.04 xGFurther out: 3 shots, 0.04 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.57 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.20 5 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.42 3 shots, 0 goals
0.19 4 shots, 0 goalsSet pieces0.10 3 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
90 min (97%) · Kilmarnock 0.75, Livingston 0.72 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
3 min (3%) · Kilmarnock 0.00, Livingston 0.00 xG

Line-ups

154171112221921923DennisMayoWrightFindlayArmstrongWatsonDonnellyDaviesStewartVassellWatkinsGoal71'46'46'71'71'Kilmarnock 3-4-1-2Derek McInnes12126121618481133GeorgeNottinghamDonnellanObileyeBrandonBradleyHoltCarsonPittmanMackayYengiYellow card57'64'81'Livingston 4-5-1David Martindale

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 46' Polworth for Watson
  • 46' Kennedy for Davies
  • 71' Murray for Armstrong
  • 71' McKenzie for Stewart
  • 71' van Veen for Vassell · 1 assist

Livingston substitutes

  • 57' Shinnie for Bradley
  • 64' Sangare for Mackay · yellow card 85'
  • 81' Anderson for Yengi

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0432
MayoCB900.000.0200.08124
WrightCB900.000.0100.0729
FindlayCB900.000.0100.0674
ArmstrongRWB710.010.0300.0460
WatsonCM460.000.000−0.0103
DonnellyCM900.050.0100.1685
DaviesLWB460.030.000−0.0112
StewartAM710.020.0510.0961
VassellST710.030.010−0.0412
WatkinsST9010.500.0320.1242
PolworthMF440.040.1010.1991
KennedyMF440.070.1930.45143
MurrayMF190.000.0810.1620
McKenzieMF190.000.0110.0322
van VeenFW1910.000.411−0.0311

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
George GK900.000.0100.0650
NottinghamRB900.080.0220.0555
DonnellanCB900.000.0100.0429
ObileyeCB900.000.0000.0453
BrandonLB900.000.0100.0129
BradleyRM570.030.4520.1541
HoltCM900.040.2200.0257
CarsonCM900.010.0100.0435
PittmanCM900.130.0110.0023
MackayLM640.080.0000.0231
YengiST810.250.0210.0835
ShinnieFW330.000.2320.0820
Sangare MF260.100.0200.0621
AndersonFW90.000.0000.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Dennis and Mayo: 4 passesMayo and Watson: 4 passesMayo and Stewart: 4 passesMayo and Vassell: 4 passesFindlay and Davies: 4 passesFindlay and Stewart: 4 passesFindlay and Vassell: 4 passesDonnelly and Stewart: 4 passesDonnelly and Vassell: 4 passesDavies and Stewart: 4 passesWright and Watson: 5 passesDavies and Vassell: 5 passesDennis and Findlay: 6 passesArmstrong and Stewart: 6 passesStewart and Watkins: 6 passesMayo and Donnelly: 7 passesFindlay and Donnelly: 7 passesMayo and Armstrong: 8 passesDennis and Wright: 9 passesWright and Donnelly: 9 passesWright and Findlay: 29 passesWright and Mayo: 30 passesDennis: 15 completed passesWright: 46 completed passesMayo: 36 completed passesFindlay: 29 completed passesArmstrong: 11 completed passesWatson: 9 completed passesDonnelly: 20 completed passesDavies: 13 completed passesStewart: 18 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 9 completed passes145171112221921239DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongWatsonDonnellyDaviesStewartWatkinsVassellStarters until 46' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

Nottingham and Carson: 3 passesDonnellan and Obileye: 3 passesBrandon and Mackay: 3 passesBradley and Holt: 3 passesCarson and Pittman: 3 passesMackay and Yengi: 3 passesGeorge and Nottingham: 4 passesGeorge and Yengi: 4 passesDonnellan and Carson: 4 passesObileye and Yengi: 4 passesHolt and Mackay: 4 passesNottingham and Pittman: 5 passesDonnellan and Holt: 5 passesObileye and Brandon: 5 passesBrandon and Pittman: 5 passesBradley and Yengi: 5 passesCarson and Holt: 5 passesObileye and Holt: 6 passesBradley and Carson: 6 passesNottingham and Donnellan: 7 passesBrandon and Holt: 9 passesHolt and Yengi: 9 passesNottingham and Bradley: 10 passesGeorge: 7 completed passesNottingham: 17 completed passesDonnellan: 13 completed passesObileye: 16 completed passesBrandon: 16 completed passesBradley: 12 completed passesCarson: 15 completed passesHolt: 22 completed passesPittman: 12 completed passesMackay: 6 completed passesYengi: 13 completed passes12126121641881133GeorgeNottinghamDonnellanObileyeBrandonBradleyCarsonHoltPittmanMackayYengiStarters until 57' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
WrightMayo23
FindlayWright20
MayoWright18
WrightFindlay16
PolworthKennedy11

Livingston

FromToPasses
HoltBrandon7
NottinghamBradley6
CarsonHolt6
DonnellanNottingham6
YengiHolt6

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

1−3.53−4.210−2.23−4.82−2.56−1.09+1.77+1.26+0.43−3.67+1.21−4.05+1.312+8.113+7.72−3.32−1.83+0.23−0.45+0.62−1.11−1.00−0.80−1.81−1.42+1.10−0.30−0.90−0.20−0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Livingston

2−3.89+1.620+5.16−0.75−0.56−0.38+0.85+0.810+2.49+1.84−2.13−2.05+1.410+4.34−2.24−0.53−0.83+1.27+4.04−1.23−0.21−1.00−0.91−1.42−1.10−0.90−0.30−0.70−0.31+0.5FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 24 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.020.050.020.020.030.070.020.030.050.060.050.060.030.07−0.010.08−0.060.190.170.180.21LessMore

Livingston

0.040.020.010.010.010.020.010.010.050.010.040.050.030.06−0.02−0.020.010.020.07−0.050.120.14LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.15 → 1.14Livingston0.98 → 0.97Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27 → 1.26Livingston1.43 → 1.42

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six89%95%+6
Livingston
11th22%19%−3
Bottom71%76%+5
Ross County
11th49%52%+3
Bottom24%20%−4
Motherwell
Top six15%15%0
11th5%4%−1

From the forecast before the match (7 February 2024): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockLivingston
Expected goals1.510.89
Win51%22%
Expected Points1.810.92
Clean sheet41%22%

Kilmarnock 51%Draw 27%Livingston 22%

Most likely score 1–0, 13%. Both sides score 46%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+7%4%1%5%2%9%4%1%5%5%2%2%2%10%13%13%10%

From the forecast as it stood on 7 February 2024: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawLivingston win
Kilmarnock
Top six89%95%86%80%
Livingston
11th22%19%22%28%
Bottom71%76%70%58%
Ross County
11th49%52%49%41%
Bottom24%20%24%34%
Motherwell
Top six15%15%14%17%
11th5%4%5%5%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. D1–13 FebMotherwell (A)xG 0.24–1.14
  2. D2–227 JanHibernian (H)xG 1.69–1.58
  3. L1–32 JanRangers (A)xG 1.55–2.27
  4. D2–230 DecDundee FC (H)xG 0.69–0.53
  5. W1–027 DecSt. Mirren (A)xG 0.81–0.46
  6. W2–123 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 1.37–1.37

Livingston

  1. L0–33 FebRangers (A)xG 0.00–2.68
  2. D2–230 JanRoss County (H)xG 1.34–0.73
  3. L1–427 JanDundee FC (H)xG 2.22–1.11
  4. L1–22 JanHearts (H)xG 1.66–1.94
  5. L1–330 DecMotherwell (A)xG 0.94–1.48
  6. D0–027 DecSt. Johnstone (H)xG 0.93–0.25

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockLivingston
Position4th12th
Played2424
Won, drawn, lost8–⁠9–⁠72–⁠7–⁠15
Points33 (1.38 per game)13 (0.54 per game)
Expected Points per game1.361.25
Goals27–⁠2615–⁠41
xG per game1.20–⁠1.150.98–⁠1.33
Home: points, xG per game1.83, 1.29–⁠0.980.67, 1.22–⁠1.16
Away: points, xG per game0.92, 1.12–⁠1.330.42, 0.74–⁠1.51
ManagerDerek McInnes (62)David Martindale (123)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.15, 6thLivingston0.98, 10thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.27, 4thLivingston1.43, 9th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock attack: 1.15Livingston attack: 0.981.150.98LivingstonKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctNovDecJanFebKilmarnock defence: 1.27Livingston defence: 1.431.431.27

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−19%−20%−43%−1%
Counter-attacks−21%+22%−31%−11%
Set pieces+24%average−25%+8%
Penalties−35%−35%+52%−13%
Headers+30%−14%−21%−17%
Left side−1%−25%−40%+7%
Centre−13%−10%−31%−4%
Right side−2%−1%−46%+3%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side−1%+3%Centre−13%−4%Right side−2%+7%Open play−19%−1%Counter-attacks−21%−11%Set pieces+24%+8%Headers+30%−17%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−40%−1%Centre−31%−10%Right side−46%−25%Open play−43%−20%Counter-attacks−31%+22%Set pieces−25%averageHeaders−21%−14%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockLivingston

1.20xG0.98
1.15xG against1.33
46%Possession44%
13.0Shots9.1
12.1Shots against13.2
3.5Shots on target2.1
1.8Big chances1.3
21.8Touches in the opposition box17.2
331Passes329
64%Pass accuracy62%
6.4Corners3.5
50%Field tilt44%
33.4Final-third entries27.8
11.5Box entries7.6
14.1Passes per defensive action14.0

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level471.031.02
Ahead201.231.38
Behind231.561.24

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level510.791.28
Ahead61.570.76
Behind341.171.52

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.133–3
16–300.240.156–3
31–450.200.232–9
46–600.240.085–3
61–750.150.235–3
76–900.280.346–5

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.080.221–3
16–300.080.152–6
31–450.160.152–7
46–600.140.302–8
61–750.170.194–5
76–900.350.314–12

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 23O'Hara 1Mayo 23Wright 14Deas 12Findlay 23Armstro… 23ArmstrongMayo 1Lyons 20Watkins 1Armstrong 1Watson 19Donnelly 6Deas 3Polworth 8Magennis 7McKenzie 3Kennedy 13Ndaba 9Davies 1Watkins 19Kennedy 4Vassell 19Ndaba 2Findlay 13-5-2 in 12 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (12), 4-4-2 (5), 4-1-4-1 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1), 3-1-4-2 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMAMSTGeorge 18Hamilton 4McGovern 2de Lucas 10Nottingham 8Shinnie 3Obileye 18Devlin 17Sean Kelly 7Parkes 3Brandon 13Mackay 4Nouble 3Holt 21Penrice 7Sangare 2Shinnie 12Pittman 3Sean Kelly 2Penrice 15Shinnie 2Pittman 2Pittman 13Stephen Kelly 5Sangare 4Nouble 9Anderson 7Shinnie 3Nouble 9Guthrie 9Anderson 53-4-2-1 in 8 of 24 starts

Formations: 3-4-2-1 (8), 3-4-1-2 (7), 3-5-2 (3), 4-3-1-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-2-3-1 (1), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
16 December 2023Livingston0–0KilmarnockxG 1.14–0.88
21 October 2023Kilmarnock3–1LivingstonxG 1.21–1.13
13 May 2023Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.75–0.32
4 February 2023Livingston3–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–1.12
4 November 2022Kilmarnock2–3LivingstonxG 1.04–1.68
17 September 2022Livingston1–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.11

9 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 3, Livingston won 5, and 1 was a draw. Goals 12–13 and xG 1.13–1.10 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong242,045480.250.30
Vassell191,639500.300.06
Kennedy181,662230.180.17
Watson191,792320.110.10

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Anderson121,326300.330.06
Sean Kelly10862300.290.04
Penrice221,902020.030.19
Guthrie111,064110.170.05

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.