Matches › 2022/23

Kilmarnock 2–0 Livingston

Saturday 13 May 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 35 · Half-time 0–0 · Referee David Munro · Attendance 5,051

Kilmarnock Vassell 48', Armstrong 64' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

Measure	Kilmarnock	Livingston
Goals	2	0
xG	1.75	0.32
Non-penalty xG	0.97	0.32
Expected Points	2.57	0.27

Kilmarnock 80%Draw 16%Livingston 3%

Most likely score 2–0, 26%. Final score 2–0, 26%.

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

1.75 +0.69xG0.32 −0.67

0.97Non-penalty xG0.32

2.78 +2.01xG on target0.33 −0.63

11 −0.6Shots7 −2.8

6 +2.9Shots on target2 −1.2

4 +2.5Big chances0 −1.3

44% 0Possession56% +13

320 −1Passes418 +117

63% −2Pass accuracy70% +8

61% +18Field tilt39% −3

27 −6Final-third entries26 −1

9 −0.2Box entries5 −3.5

10.2 −4Passes per defensive action8.4 −7

2 −2.3Corners5 +1.1

15 −2Tackles17 +3

14 +2.5Interceptions4 −5.3

15 −5Clearances16 −9

2 −1.2Saves4 +1.2

17 +5Fouls17 +5

0 −1.9Offsides1 0.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Zones Shots

Kilmarnock

Livingston

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.83 8 shots, 1 goalOpen play0.15 4 shots, 0 goals

0.06 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

0.08 1 shot, 0 goalsSet pieces0.18 3 shots, 0 goals

0.79 1 shot, 1 goalPenalties0.00 0 shots, 0 goals

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

0–01–02–0

Level: 48 min (53%) · Kilmarnock 0.70, Livingston 0.13 xG
Kilmarnock ahead: 43 min (47%) · Kilmarnock 1.05, Livingston 0.20 xG

Line-ups

Kilmarnock substitutes

82' Sanders for Dorsett
82' Jones for Armstrong
88' Wales for Vassell
90' Lyons for Doidge

Livingston substitutes

65' Anderson for Holt
77' Bradley for Stephen Kelly
82' Penrice for Devlin
82' Parkes for Montano

Players

Kilmarnock

Player	Pos	Min	G	A	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
Walker	GK	90			0.00	0.00	0	0.03	2	1
Mayo	RB	90			0.00	0.04	0	0.07	8	4
Wright	CB	90			0.08	0.00	0	0.01	1	9
Dorsett	CB	82			0.00	0.01	0	0.05	4	3
Chambers	LB	90			0.07	0.37	2	0.29	9	3
Armstrong	RM	82	1		0.81	0.07	2	0.03	3	1
Watson	CM	90			0.14	0.03	0	0.11	2	2
Donnelly	CM	90			0.00	0.02	0	0.04	6	10
McKenzie	LM	90			0.02	0.01	1	0.01	1	3
Doidge	ST	90		1	0.08	0.12	2	0.11	2	4
Vassell	ST	88	1		0.56	0.42	1	−0.03	2	2
Sanders	DF	8			0.00	0.04	0	0.03	2	3
Jones	MF	8			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	1
Wales	FW	2			0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Lyons	MF	0			0.00	0.00	0	−0.01	0	1

Livingston

Player	Pos	Min	xG	xA	KP	xT	Prog	Def
George	GK	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	0
Devlin	RB	82	0.00	0.03	1	0.13	12	4
Fitzwater	CB	90	0.00	0.01	1	0.06	3	3
Perez	CB	90	0.06	0.00	0	0.03	2	5
Montano	LB	82	0.00	0.01	0	0.04	4	4
Sean Kelly	CM	90	0.00	0.00	0	0.01	1	6
Holt	CM	65	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	1	3
Shinnie	CM	90	0.00	0.01	1	−0.02	1	4
Pittman	AM	90	0.00	0.01	0	−0.03	0	2
Stephen Kelly	AM	77	0.15	0.03	0	0.03	5	1
Nouble	ST	90	0.09	0.01	0	0.04	3	3
Anderson	FW	25	0.00	0.00	0	0.00	0	1
Bradley	FW	13	0.00	0.05	1	0.00	0	1
Penrice	DF	8	0.02	0.00	0	0.01	0	1
Parkes	DF	8	0.00	0.00	0	0.02	2	2

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Livingston

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

From	To	Passes
Mayo	Doidge	8
Donnelly	Wright	6
Watson	Armstrong	6
Donnelly	Armstrong	5
McKenzie	Chambers	5

Livingston

From	To	Passes
Fitzwater	Devlin	12
Fitzwater	Perez	10
Perez	Sean Kelly	9
Perez	Montano	8
Devlin	Nouble	8

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

Against its average of 34 matches

Livingston

Against its average of 34 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

Livingston

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

Chance	Before	With this result	Change
Kilmarnock
11th	32%	28%	−4
Bottom	19%	9%	−10
Ross County
11th	28%	27%	−1
Bottom	53%	59%	+6
Dundee United
11th	35%	39%	+4
Bottom	27%	31%	+4

From the forecast before the match (13 May 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

Measure	Kilmarnock	Livingston
Expected goals	1.45	0.95
Win	48%	24%
Expected Points	1.72	1.00
Clean sheet	39%	23%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 28%Livingston 24%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 48%.

From the forecast as it stood on 13 May 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

Chance	Now	Kilmarnock win	Draw	Livingston win
Kilmarnock
11th	32%	28%	35%	38%
Bottom	19%	9%	24%	33%
Ross County
11th	28%	27%	29%	30%
Bottom	53%	59%	50%	45%
Dundee United
11th	35%	39%	33%	29%
Bottom	27%	31%	26%	22%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

Livingston

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

Measure	Kilmarnock	Livingston
Position	11th	7th
Played	34	34
Won, drawn, lost	8–⁠7–⁠19	12–⁠6–⁠16
Points	31 (0.91 per game)	42 (1.24 per game)
Expected Points per game	1.16	1.03
Goals	29–⁠60	33–⁠54
xG per game	1.06–⁠1.43	0.99–⁠1.53
Home: points, xG per game	1.62, 1.38–⁠1.15	1.65, 1.06–⁠1.43
Away: points, xG per game	0.28, 0.77–⁠1.68	0.82, 0.92–⁠1.64
Manager	Derek McInnes (34)	David Martindale (95)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

This season

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

Chances	Kilmarnock		Livingston
Chances	Created	Conceded	Created	Conceded
Open play	−26%	+7%	−38%	+12%
Counter-attacks	−54%	+5%	−82%	−6%
Set pieces	+30%	+20%	−3%	+21%
Penalties	−69%	−7%	+24%	+39%
Headers	+13%	−19%	−34%	+15%
Left side	+1%	−5%	−16%	+6%
Centre	−22%	+18%	−39%	+8%
Right side	−15%	+12%	−35%	+29%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side+1%+29%Centre−22%+8%Right side−15%+6%Open play−26%+12%Counter-attacks−54%−6%Set pieces+30%+21%Headers+13%+15%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−16%+12%Centre−39%+18%Right side−35%−5%Open play−38%+7%Counter-attacks−82%+5%Set pieces−3%+20%Headers−34%−19%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockLivingston

1.06xG0.99

1.43xG against1.53

44%Possession43%

11.6Shots9.8

12.9Shots against13.4

3.1Shots on target3.2

1.5Big chances1.3

19.6Touches in the opposition box18.5

321Passes301

65%Pass accuracy62%

4.3Corners3.9

44%Field tilt42%

33.5Final-third entries27.2

9.2Box entries8.5

14.7Passes per defensive action15.3

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	29	1.19	1.11
Ahead	19	1.16	1.14
Behind	42	0.92	1.79

Livingston

State	Minutes per game	xG per 90	xG against per 90
Level	36	1.07	1.35
Ahead	28	0.89	1.51
Behind	26	0.97	1.80

xG by period

Kilmarnock

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.12	0.20	3–14
16–30	0.17	0.27	5–14
31–45	0.22	0.22	8–7
46–60	0.27	0.21	6–7
61–75	0.12	0.18	4–8
76–90	0.15	0.34	3–10

Livingston

Minutes	xG per game	xG against	Goals
1–15	0.22	0.14	10–4
16–30	0.15	0.17	5–6
31–45	0.16	0.35	8–15
46–60	0.13	0.29	3–8
61–75	0.13	0.24	4–12
76–90	0.20	0.33	3–9

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

Formations: 4-4-2 (9), 3-5-2 (6), 3-4-2-1 (4), 5-3-2 (3), 4-2-3-1 (3), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-3 (2), 4-5-1 (1), 4-4-1-1 (1), 3-3-3-1 (1)

Livingston

Formations: 4-3-3 (9), 4-2-3-1 (8), 4-3-2-1 (8), 5-3-2 (2), 3-5-1-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 5-4-1 (1), 4-3-1-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

Date	Home	Score	Away	xG
4 February 2023	Livingston	3–1	Kilmarnock	xG 1.45–1.12
4 November 2022	Kilmarnock	2–3	Livingston	xG 1.04–1.68
17 September 2022	Livingston	1–0	Kilmarnock	xG 0.83–0.11
27 January 2021	Livingston	2–0	Kilmarnock	xG 1.10–0.59
26 December 2020	Kilmarnock	1–2	Livingston	xG 1.22–0.68
17 October 2020	Livingston	1–3	Kilmarnock	xG 1.53–2.27

6 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 1, Livingston won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 7–12 and xG 1.06–1.21 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Armstrong	27	2,416	7	6	0.22	0.23
Vassell	10	824	0	2	0.27	0.11
Robinson	6	619	2	0	0.24	0.07
Shaw	7	628	0	0	0.25	0.02

Livingston

Player	Starts	Min	G	A	xG per 90	xA per 90
Anderson	18	1,590	5	2	0.22	0.08
Sean Kelly	25	2,037	2	2	0.16	0.10
Guthrie	6	615	0	0	0.24	0.02
Bradley	11	858	1	2	0.12	0.14

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.