Digressive Celts

Matches › 2023/24

Kilmarnock 3–1 Livingston

Saturday 21 October 2023, 15:00 · The BBSP Stadium Rugby Park · Round 9 · Half-time 2–1 · Referee Craig Napier · Attendance 4,679

Kilmarnock Armstrong 16', Vassell 42', 60'

Livingston Sean Kelly 35' (pen)

Post-match

Result and Expected Points

KilmarnockLivingston
Goals31
xG1.211.13
Non-penalty xG1.210.35
Expected Points1.341.30

Kilmarnock 33%Draw 36%Livingston 31%

Most likely score 1–1, 26%. Final score 3–1, 5%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+4%15%5%6%8%1%3%14%6%1%5%2%1%26%Final score

Own goals have no xG.

xG race

00.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Vassell, Donnelly on for Watson, and Kennedy on for Armstrong, 81'Dallas on for Polworth, 90+1'Guthrie on for Mackay, 58'Montano on for Holt and Bradley on for Pittman, 64'Shinnie on for Sangare, 78'Lloyd-McGoldrick on for Anderson, 79'Armstrong 16'Vassell 42'Vassell 60'Sean Kelly 35' (pen)Kilmarnock 1.21Livingston 1.1300.511.50153045607590HTMcKenzie on for Vassell, Donnelly on for Watson, and Kennedy on for Armstrong, 81'Dallas on for Polworth, 90+1'Guthrie on for Mackay, 58'Montano on for Holt and Bradley on for Pittman, 64'Shinnie on for Sangare, 78'Lloyd-McGoldrick on for Anderson, 79'Armstrong 16'Vassell 42'Vassell 60'Sean Kelly 35' (pen)1.211.13KilmarnockLivingston

Each side's xG added up shot by shot through the match. Stoppage time is shaded as far as the last shot or event recorded in it. Triangles along the foot mark each side's substitutions.

Match stats

KilmarnockLivingston

1.21 −0.09xG1.13 +0.04
1.21Non-penalty xG0.35
1.57 +0.50xG on target0.98 −0.05
13 −0.4Shots8 −1.6
5 +1.9Shots on target1 −1.8
2 +0.4Big chances2 +0.9
12 −11Touches in the opposition box25 +10
53% +8Possession47% +2
366 +24Passes328 −15
64% −1Pass accuracy57% −8
51% +4Field tilt49% +7
32 −3Final-third entries27 0
7 −6.8Box entries14 +6.6
15.1 −1Passes per defensive action13.3 +1
5 −0.8Corners4 +0.4
12 −1Tackles20 +3
9 +1.5Interceptions12 +1.8
18 +1Clearances17 −8
0 −3.6Saves2 −0.4
9 −4Fouls10 −4
1 +0.5Offsides0 −1.0

The small figure beside each value is its difference from the side's average per league match this season before this one. Field tilt is each side's share of the open-play passes completed in the final third; entries are completed open-play passes and carries into the final third and the box; passes per defensive action (PPDA) counts the opponent's passes in its own 60% of the pitch for each tackle, interception, challenge, or foul there.

Chance locations

Kilmarnock

Vassell 60', 0.36 xGPolworth 28', 0.07 xGWatkins 47', 0.07 xGVassell 28', 0.06 xGPolworth 53', 0.05 xGArmstrong 9', 0.04 xGWatkins 75', 0.04 xGArmstrong 54', 0.03 xGLyons 45+5', 0.02 xGLyons 47', 0.01 xGVassell 42', 0.20 xG, goalVassell 60', 0.14 xG, goalArmstrong 16', 0.11 xG, goal33%0.40 xGSix-yard box: 2 shots, 0.40 xG, 0 goals37%0.45 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.45 xG, 3 goals6%0.07 xGWide in the box: 2 shots, 0.07 xG, 0 goals23%0.28 xGEdge of the box: 5 shots, 0.28 xG, 0 goals1%0.01 xGFurther out: 1 shot, 0.01 xG, 0 goals

Livingston

Penrice 90+2', 0.12 xGAnderson 75', 0.09 xGLloyd-McGoldrick 90', 0.07 xGNouble 3', 0.02 xGMackay 45', 0.02 xGMontano 70', 0.02 xGde Lucas 85', 0.01 xG0%0.00 xGSix-yard box: 0 shots, 0.00 xG, 0 goals37%0.13 xGCentral box: 3 shots, 0.13 xG, 0 goals34%0.12 xGWide in the box: 1 shot, 0.12 xG, 0 goals20%0.07 xGEdge of the box: 1 shot, 0.07 xG, 0 goals9%0.03 xGFurther out: 2 shots, 0.03 xG, 0 goals

Each area's share of the side's xG from open play and set pieces, with the xG in it. The two wide areas of the box count together, as on the club pages. Shots shows each of those shots instead, sized by its xG, with goals filled in.

Chance types

KilmarnockLivingston

0.54 8 shots, 2 goalsOpen play0.23 4 shots, 0 goals
0.05 1 shot, 0 goalsCounter-attacks0.00 0 shots, 0 goals
0.62 4 shots, 1 goalSet pieces0.11 3 shots, 0 goals
0.00 0 shots, 0 goalsPenalties0.79 1 shot, 1 goal

xG by type of chance, with each side's shots and goals beside it.

Game state

Level
23 min (24%) · Kilmarnock 0.35, Livingston 0.02 xG
Kilmarnock ahead
74 min (76%) · Kilmarnock 0.86, Livingston 1.12 xG

Line-ups

1541711128313923DennisMayoWrightFindlayArmstrongWatsonLyonsPolworthNdabaVassellWatkinsGoalYellow cardYellow cardGoalGoal81'81'90+1'81'Kilmarnock 3-5-2Derek McInnes123524111882920199Georgede LucasDevlinSean KellyMackayHoltPittmanPenriceSangareNoubleAndersonYellow cardGoal58'64'64'78'79'Livingston 3-4-1-2David Martindale

Kilmarnock substitutes

  • 81' Donnelly for Watson
  • 81' Kennedy for Armstrong
  • 81' McKenzie for Vassell
  • 90+1' Dallas for Polworth

Livingston substitutes

  • 58' Guthrie for Mackay
  • 64' Bradley for Pittman
  • 64' Montano for Holt
  • 78' Shinnie for Sangare
  • 79' Lloyd-McGoldrick for Anderson

Players

Kilmarnock

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
DennisGK900.000.0000.0121
MayoCB900.000.0100.0417
WrightCB900.000.0100.0424
FindlayCB900.000.0100.0642
ArmstrongRWB81110.180.3540.2384
Watson CM8110.000.2020.1733
Lyons CM900.040.0220.0263
PolworthCM900.120.010−0.0131
NdabaLWB900.000.0600.1286
VassellST8120.760.0100.0511
WatkinsST900.110.0420.0614
DonnellyMF90.000.000−0.0100
KennedyMF90.000.0000.0002
McKenzieMF90.000.010−0.0101
DallasFW00.000.0000.0000

Livingston

PlayerPosMinGAxGxAKPxTProgDef
GeorgeGK900.000.0000.0682
de LucasCB900.010.0300.0129
Devlin CB900.000.0100.0659
Sean KellyCB9010.790.1130.1344
MackayRWB580.020.0000.0311
HoltCM640.000.0100.0203
PittmanCM640.000.010−0.0813
PenriceLWB900.120.0910.2857
SangareAM780.000.0100.0447
NoubleST900.020.1400.1063
AndersonST790.090.000−0.1200
GuthrieFW320.000.0300.0210
BradleyMF260.000.0000.0004
MontanoFW260.020.0510.1060
ShinnieMF120.000.0000.0000
Lloyd-McGoldrickMF110.070.0110.0000

Starters, then substitutes in the order they came on. KP is chances created and Def defensive actions (tackles, blocks, clearances, and interceptions). xT is the expected threat added by the player's completed open-play passes and carries, and Prog counts progressive passes and carries.

Pass networks

Kilmarnock

Mayo and Ndaba: 4 passesFindlay and Watson: 4 passesFindlay and Lyons: 4 passesWatson and Polworth: 4 passesWatson and Vassell: 4 passesWright and Mayo: 5 passesArmstrong and Vassell: 5 passesWatkins and Vassell: 5 passesMayo and Lyons: 6 passesNdaba and Lyons: 6 passesWright and Watson: 7 passesWright and Lyons: 8 passesWright and Vassell: 8 passesArmstrong and Watson: 8 passesPolworth and Lyons: 8 passesDennis and Mayo: 9 passesDennis and Findlay: 9 passesArmstrong and Lyons: 9 passesNdaba and Watson: 9 passesMayo and Findlay: 10 passesWright and Armstrong: 11 passesNdaba and Vassell: 13 passesFindlay and Polworth: 14 passesNdaba and Polworth: 14 passesDennis: 15 completed passesWright: 28 completed passesMayo: 28 completed passesFindlay: 24 completed passesArmstrong: 13 completed passesNdaba: 29 completed passesWatson: 21 completed passesPolworth: 27 completed passesLyons: 26 completed passesWatkins: 7 completed passesVassell: 16 completed passes1451711312318239DennisWrightMayoFindlayArmstrongNdabaWatsonPolworthLyonsWatkinsVassellStarters until 81' · lines join pairs with 4+ passes

Livingston

Devlin and Sean Kelly: 3 passesDevlin and Pittman: 3 passesSean Kelly and Penrice: 3 passesde Lucas and Pittman: 3 passesde Lucas and Holt: 3 passesPittman and Sangare: 3 passesHolt and Nouble: 3 passesSean Kelly and Holt: 4 passesde Lucas and Anderson: 4 passesPittman and Nouble: 4 passesSangare and Nouble: 4 passesGeorge and Sean Kelly: 6 passesSean Kelly and Nouble: 6 passesPittman and Anderson: 6 passesPenrice and Nouble: 7 passesPittman and Penrice: 8 passesGeorge: 7 completed passesDevlin: 8 completed passesSean Kelly: 13 completed passesde Lucas: 11 completed passesMackay: 1 completed passesPittman: 16 completed passesHolt: 11 completed passesPenrice: 10 completed passesSangare: 10 completed passesNouble: 13 completed passesAnderson: 4 completed passes152423118182920199GeorgeDevlinSean Kellyde LucasMackayPittmanHoltPenriceSangareNoubleAndersonStarters until 58' · lines join pairs with 3+ passes

Each starter at the average position of their passes and receptions until the side's first substitution or red card, sized by completed passes. Lines join pairs who passed to each other often, thicker for more passes.

Passing combinations

Kilmarnock

FromToPasses
NdabaPolworth10
PolworthNdaba10
FindlayPolworth9
WrightArmstrong9
NdabaLyons8

Livingston

FromToPasses
MontanoPenrice8
Sean KellyNouble5
NoubleBradley5
MontanoDevlin5
PenricePittman4

The five pairs with the most completed passes from one to the other over the whole match.

Defensive actions

Kilmarnock

5+1.05−2.410+3.06+1.29+2.88−0.84−3.57−0.54−4.112+7.95−2.05+0.510+4.47+1.97+2.66+2.83−0.42−1.57+3.02−0.25+2.60−0.80−1.90−2.41+0.60−0.40−0.90−0.52+1.43−8.9FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Livingston

4−4.411−4.26−2.08+1.66−1.55−5.55+0.29+2.010+2.510+2.411+5.450.09+2.812+5.43−1.92−3.51−1.10−3.97+3.50−3.13+0.40−0.85+2.22−0.91+0.20−0.50−0.90−0.10−0.41−7.4FewerMore than the season average

Against its average of 8 matches

Where each side made its tackles, interceptions, clearances, blocks, recoveries, challenges, and fouls, attacking up the page. Areas are shaded by the difference from the side's average per match this season before this one: amber for more, blue for fewer.

Threat

Kilmarnock

0.010.010.010.010.010.010.020.030.020.020.030.020.020.020.010.040.02−0.040.03−0.01−0.020.060.060.220.20LessMore

Livingston

0.010.010.020.030.010.010.020.020.020.020.04−0.010.010.010.010.080.060.01−0.020.030.100.11−0.02−0.15−0.040.27LessMore

Expected threat added by completed open-play passes and carries, by where the move started, attacking up the page. Expected threat is the chance that possession in an area leads to a goal; a move adds the difference between where it ends and where it starts.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.15 → 1.16Livingston1.05 → 1.05Defence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36 → 1.35Livingston1.39 → 1.40

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday (ring) and after it (dot); a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs after the matchday, spread up and down only so they don't overlap. The change takes in the whole matchday.

League probabilities

ChanceBeforeWith this resultChange
Kilmarnock
Top six35%44%+9
11th9%7%−2
Bottom6%4%−2
Livingston
Top six34%28%−6
11th10%11%+1
Bottom5%7%+2

From the forecast before the match (21 October 2023): each chance then, and across the simulations in which the match ended this way. The change is in percentage points.

Pre-match

As things stood before kick-off.

Forecast

KilmarnockLivingston
Expected goals1.470.99
Win48%25%
Expected Points1.701.02
Clean sheet37%23%

Kilmarnock 48%Draw 28%Livingston 25%

Most likely score 1–1, 13%. Both sides score 49%.

Livingston goalsKilmarnock goals0123456+0123456+9%8%4%1%6%2%9%9%5%1%5%4%2%2%2%12%13%

From the forecast as it stood on 21 October 2023: each side's attack and defence ratings in a Dixon–Coles score model, as on the Forecasts page.

League probabilities by result

ChanceNowKilmarnock winDrawLivingston win
Kilmarnock
Top six35%44%32%23%
11th9%7%9%12%
Bottom6%4%6%8%
Livingston
Top six34%28%33%47%
11th10%11%9%6%
Bottom5%7%5%2%

Each chance before the match and across the simulations ending in each result. Other teams are listed where a chance moves by at least 3 percentage points.

Form

Kilmarnock

  1. L1–37 OctCeltic (A)xG 1.54–2.75
  2. D1–130 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 0.73–0.79
  3. D2–223 SepDundee FC (A)xG 3.56–1.49
  4. D2–216 SepHibernian (H)xG 0.83–0.92
  5. L0–12 SepRoss County (H)xG 1.42–0.72
  6. L1–226 AugMotherwell (A)xG 1.05–2.15

Livingston

  1. W2–07 OctMotherwell (H)xG 2.59–0.06
  2. D1–130 SepSt. Johnstone (A)xG 0.98–0.62
  3. L0–323 SepCeltic (H)xG 0.94–2.61
  4. D1–116 SepRoss County (A)xG 0.17–0.87
  5. D1–12 SepSt. Mirren (H)xG 1.45–0.67
  6. W3–226 AugHibernian (A)xG 1.68–0.81

The last six league matches, newest first, with xG for and against.

Season to date

KilmarnockLivingston
Position9th6th
Played88
Won, drawn, lost1–⁠4–⁠32–⁠4–⁠2
Points7 (0.88 per game)10 (1.25 per game)
Expected Points per game1.321.41
Goals8–⁠118–⁠12
xG per game1.30–⁠1.321.09–⁠1.10
Home: points, xG per game1.25, 0.88–⁠0.951.25, 1.44–⁠1.01
Away: points, xG per game0.50, 1.72–⁠1.701.25, 0.74–⁠1.19
ManagerDerek McInnes (46)David Martindale (107)

League matches this season before kick-off. The manager's number is league matches in charge since 2020/21.

Ratings

0.51.01.52.02.5League average 1.29AttackKilmarnock1.15, 6thLivingston1.05, 9thDefence (lower is better)Kilmarnock1.36, 7thLivingston1.39, 8th

This season

Attack0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock attack: 1.15Livingston attack: 1.051.151.05LivingstonKilmarnockDefence (lower is better)0.51.01.52.0SepOctKilmarnock defence: 1.36Livingston defence: 1.391.391.36

The goals each side would score (attack) and concede (defence) per game against an average team, from the forecast ratings before this matchday, with their rank among the league's clubs; a lower defence number is better. Grey dots are the other clubs, spread up and down only so they don't overlap.

Strengths and weaknesses

KilmarnockLivingston
CreatedConcededCreatedConceded
Open play−12%−19%−36%−4%
Counter-attacks−27%+21%+15%−55%
Set pieces+3%+44%−14%−38%
Penalties+68%−16%+68%−16%
Headers+30%−39%+8%−30%
Left side+8%−61%−37%−4%
Centre−27%+13%−19%−17%
Right side+12%+45%−30%−32%

xG created and conceded per game against the league average this season: +24% is 24% more than an average side. Left and right are each side's own, so chances conceded on its left come from opponents attacking down their right. Green favours the side and amber doesn't.

Matchups

Kilmarnock attacking

Kilmarnock createdLivingston concededLeft side+8%−32%Centre−27%−17%Right side+12%−4%Open play−12%−4%Counter-attacks−27%−55%Set pieces+3%−38%Headers+30%−30%

Livingston attacking

Livingston createdKilmarnock concededLeft side−37%+45%Centre−19%+13%Right side−30%−61%Open play−36%−19%Counter-attacks+15%+21%Set pieces−14%+44%Headers+8%−39%

Each side's xG created per game down each side of the pitch, through the centre, and from each type of chance, against what its opponent concedes there, both relative to the league average.

Season averages

KilmarnockLivingston

1.30xG1.09
1.32xG against1.10
45%Possession45%
13.4Shots9.6
12.9Shots against12.4
3.1Shots on target2.8
1.6Big chances1.1
22.8Touches in the opposition box14.5
342Passes343
65%Pass accuracy65%
5.8Corners3.6
48%Field tilt42%
35.0Final-third entries27.2
13.8Box entries7.4
15.8Passes per defensive action12.1

Per league match this season before kick-off.

Game state this season

Kilmarnock

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level551.041.10
Ahead120.731.87
Behind242.181.57

Livingston

StateMinutes per gamexG per 90xG against per 90
Level521.020.75
Ahead151.690.82
Behind240.832.03

xG by period

Kilmarnock

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.120.151–1
16–300.270.212–2
31–450.200.160–2
46–600.130.130–3
61–750.210.153–0
76–900.360.532–3

Livingston

MinutesxG per gamexG againstGoals
1–150.100.191–2
16–300.060.100–0
31–450.090.100–1
46–600.280.322–2
61–750.300.144–1
76–900.270.251–6

Per game this season, with stoppage time counted in its half; goals are totals for and against.

Most used players by position

Kilmarnock

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMCMLWBSTSTDennis 8Mayo 7Deas 6Wright 4Findlay 7Armstrong 7Mayo 1Watson 5Armstrong 1Watkins 1Lyons 8Deas 1Magennis 7Kennedy 1Ndaba 4Kennedy 3Davies 1Vassell 5Kennedy 4Watkins 5Findlay 1Cameron 13-5-2 in 4 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-5-2 (4), 3-1-4-2 (1), 4-4-2 (1), 4-1-4-1 (1), 5-3-2 (1)

Livingston

GKCBCBCBRWBCMCMLWBAMSTSTGeorge 8de Lucas 7Penrice 1Parkes 1Obileye 8Devlin 5Sean Kelly 2Brandon 7Mackay 1Shinnie 6Holt 3Penrice 3Pittman 2Holt 4Penrice 2Sangare 1Pittman 2Stephen Kelly 2Sangare 2Anderson 4Guthrie 3Stephen Kelly 1Nouble 7Sangare 13-4-1-2 in 2 of 8 starts

Formations: 3-4-1-2 (2), 3-4-2-1 (2), 3-5-2 (2), 4-3-2-1 (1), 3-4-3 (1)

This season's most used formation, with up to three players who started most often in each position and their league starts there. Underneath, when a side has used more than one, every formation with its starts.

Head to head

DateHomeAwayxG
13 May 2023Kilmarnock2–0LivingstonxG 1.75–0.32
4 February 2023Livingston3–1KilmarnockxG 1.45–1.12
4 November 2022Kilmarnock2–3LivingstonxG 1.04–1.68
17 September 2022Livingston1–0KilmarnockxG 0.83–0.11
27 January 2021Livingston2–0KilmarnockxG 1.10–0.59
26 December 2020Kilmarnock1–2LivingstonxG 1.22–0.68

7 league meetings since 2020/21: Kilmarnock won 2, Livingston won 5, and 0 were drawn. Goals 9–12 and xG 1.16–1.08 per game.

Key players

Kilmarnock

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Armstrong8702220.400.41
Vassell5492100.340.08
Kennedy8718000.200.19
Watson5505100.120.16

Livingston

PlayerStartsMinGAxG per 90xA per 90
Penrice6532010.040.15
Nouble8716010.150.04
de Lucas7658100.140.01
Brandon7500000.020.10

Up to four players a side with the most xG plus xA per 90 minutes, from those with at least 450 league minutes.